Bear case

The bear case is the worst-realistic outcome we model — not a doomsday scenario, but the adverse path where the main risks materialize together. Construction is bottom-up: we identify the risks on which the thesis depends, model what each implies for revenue, margins, cash generation, and valuation assumptions, and combine them into a downside forecast. The bear case is intentionally pessimistic but realistic. Its numeric value is kept separate from the house fair value and published range and appears only in Section 2, where readers can see the assumptions, triggers, probability, and position-management implications together.