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§ Methodology v2.4

How every report is produced.

Every monthly report on StockMarketAgent.AI is produced by the same disciplined, 9-phase workflow. We classify the business archetype, calibrate the discount rate to that archetype, run accounting-quality gates before trusting earnings, build the required valuation models, stress-test the result, and only then write the narrative — risks first. The goal is to separate the quality of the business from the attractiveness of the price, and to make every load-bearing assumption auditable.

Methodology

Phase 0

Archetype detection

Each stock is classified into one of 9 archetypes. This calibrates every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, probability weights, scorecard weights, model applicability.

Phase 1

Parallel data collection

Four research agents run concurrently: current ratios and analyst data; 5-year historical financials; peer multiples; WACC inputs and segments.

Phase 2

Cost of capital

CAPM Ke with adjusted beta (raw, industry, Bloomberg-blended). After-tax Kd. Market-weight WACC.

Phase 2.5

Quality gates

ROIC vs WACC trajectory, accounting quality (OCF/NI, accruals, Beneish M-score). Gate failures increase required margin of safety.

Phase 3

Valuation models

SBC-adjusted discounted earnings (dual Ke), multi-stage moat fade, 5-year forward earnings (bull/base/bear), reverse DCF, Owner Earnings floor, PEG-adjusted peer.

Phase 4

Sensitivity

5×5 Ke × terminal growth, TV concentration, growth × terminal P/E matrix.

Phase 5

Risk analysis — bear first

Top 5 kill scenarios, formal stress tests, quality deterioration signals. Built before bullish synthesis to counteract confirmation bias.

Phase 6–7

Supplementary + actionable

Moat quantification, peer cohort, industry cycle, earnings decision tree, technical positioning, position sizing, dynamic margin of safety.

Phase 8

Scorecard

9-category phase-adjusted score and 6-factor 100-point overlay with hard-fail guardrails.

Phase 9

Report assembly + 18-locale rendering

Assembled into a 500–900 line markdown document, translated on-view.