Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
NASDAQ: MSFT · Real-Time Price · USD
$415
-5.64 (-1.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: MSFT rated Buy
Buy. Valuation range effectively balances capital intensity risks against the long-duration infrastructure moat.
Fair value (mid)
$497 / share
$383 – $614
Upside to FV
+18.0%
from $415
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: AI drives a supercycle of hardware and software upgrades, accelerating Azure share gains and Copilot pricing power beyond explicit forward estimates.
Biggest risk
AI Monetization Failure
AI Monetization Failure: Massive capex fails to yield proportional AI revenue, heavily diluting ROIC as depreciation eats into operating margins while core PC markets stagnate.
Recommended action
Buy
Buy. The conservative synthesis midpoint of $496.80 provides an 18% upside, safely digesting the capital intensity of the AI cycle.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $3.13T | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 318.3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 125.2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $16.8 | |
| Shares out | 7.4B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 24.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 21.8x | |
| Dividend | $3.64 (0.88%) | |
| Volume | 33,383,387 | |
| Beta | 1.09 | |
| Price target | $569 | +37.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Microsoft CorporationMSFT
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 318.3B
- Net income (ttm)
- 125.2B
- EPS (ttm)
- $16.8
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.8x
- Market cap
- $3.13T
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | P6 | P7 | P8 | P9 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-06-30 | 2023-06-30 | 2024-06-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-03-31 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $198.27B | $211.92B | $245.12B | $254.19B | $261.80B | $270.01B | $281.72B | $293.81B | $305.45B | +5.6% |
| Gross profit | $135.62B | $146.05B | $171.01B | $176.28B | $181.72B | $186.51B | $193.89B | $202.04B | $209.50B | +5.6% |
| Operating income | $83.38B | $88.52B | $109.43B | $113.09B | $117.71B | $122.13B | $128.53B | $135.94B | $142.56B | +6.9% |
| Net income | $72.74B | $72.36B | $88.14B | $90.51B | $92.75B | $96.64B | $101.83B | $104.91B | $119.26B | +6.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.64 | $9.69 | $11.81 | $12.12 | $12.42 | $12.94 | $13.64 | $14.06 | $15.99 | +6.5% |
| EBITDA | $100.24B | $105.14B | $133.01B | $138.84B | $143.17B | $149.29B | $160.17B | $173.60B | $183.76B | +7.9% |
| R&D | $24.51B | $27.20B | $29.51B | $30.40B | $31.17B | $31.72B | $32.49B | $33.09B | $33.68B | +4.1% |
| SG&A | $27.73B | $30.33B | $32.07B | $32.79B | $32.83B | $32.66B | $32.88B | $33.01B | $33.26B | +2.3% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $383
- Fair value (mid)
- $497
- Fair value (high)
- $614
- Current price
- $415
- Upside to mid
- +18.0%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $605 | 35% |
| Forward earnings | $493 | 30% |
| FCFF DCF | $373 | 15% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $371 | 10% |
| Discounted earnings | $312 | 5% |
| Owner earnings | $573 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $59.29 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$569
+37.2%
In the news
Latest news · MSFT
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $3.13T
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.8x
- P/S
- 9.7x
- P/B
- 7.4x
- PEG
- 1.39
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.0x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 68.3%
- Operating margin
- 46.8%
- ROE
- 34.0%
- ROA
- 14.8%
- ROIC
- 27.2%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.30
- Current ratio
- 1.28
- Quick ratio
- 1.14
Trading
- Beta
- 1.09
- Volume
- 33,383,387
- Dividend yield
- 0.9%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +19.5% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$614.02
+45.8% from spot
AI drives a supercycle of hardware and software upgrades, accelerating Azure share gains and Copilot pricing power beyond explicit forward estimates.
- AI drives a supercycle of hardware and software upgrades.
- Accelerating Azure share gains against legacy hyperscalers.
- Terminal multiple stabilizes above 30x.
Base55%
Price target
$496.80
+18.0% from spot
Microsoft is in an aggressive investment phase to dominate enterprise AI infrastructure. High structural profitability in legacy SaaS funds strategic capex, ensuring a long-duration moat.
- High structural profitability funds strategic capex.
- Terminal multiple compresses safely to 25x.
- 16.5% Y1 revenue growth.
Bear20%
Price target
$383.03
-9.0% from spot
Massive capex fails to yield proportional AI revenue, heavily diluting ROIC as depreciation eats into operating margins while core PC markets stagnate.
- Capex fails to yield proportional AI revenue.
- Depreciation severely eats into operating margins.
- Core PC markets stagnate persistently.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $497.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $605 | +45.7% | |
| Forward earnings | 30% | $493 | +18.8% | |
| FCFF DCF | 15% | $373 | -10.2% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 10% | $371 | -10.7% | |
| Discounted earnings | 5% | $312 | -24.8% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $573 | +38.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $59.3 | -85.7% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $497 | +18.0% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($496.81). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $578 | $629 | $690 | $764 | $856 |
| 9.2% | $497 | $534 | $578 | $629 | $690 |
| 10.2% | $436 | $464 | $497 | $534 | $578 |
| 11.2% | $388 | $411 | $436 | $464 | $497 |
| 12.2% | $350 | $368 | $388 | $411 | $436 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation6.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.0
Weighted composite
7.3/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core portfolio anchor. Standard conviction rating thresholds supported by 88/100 confidence score and 18% expected IRR against a 10.15% Ke.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$415
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Re-evaluate if terminal multiple expands aggressively beyond 35x with stagnant growth, or if ROIC structurally deteriorates below 20%.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E21.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE34
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC27.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
288
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 288 of 288 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on MSFT
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this MSFT report
What is the current MSFT stock rating?
Microsoft Corporation is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MSFT analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MSFT/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MSFT?
The latest report frames MSFT around $383 to $614. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MSFT page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyMSFT · Fair value $497+18.0% · Confidence 88/100