NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $52.9, high $87.7, with mid-point at $70.2.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$70
Margin of safety
-31.1%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$91.98Price
Low $52.90
Mid $70.15
High $87.67
NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Network effects in core exchange
Network effects in core exchange listings
High switching costs in data
High switching costs in data and analytics software
Cycle upside
Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.
§2 Cenário pessimista
A prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, while competition in data and technology products pressures pricing power. The market abruptly reprices the expected normalized multiple.
Como esta tese pode falhar
Severe IPO Drought
· Medium
A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.
FV impact
-20%
Trigger
12-24 months
Data Pricing Regulation
· Low
Strict regulatory intervention caps the pricing of proprietary market data feeds, structurally impairing a highly recurring revenue stream.
FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months
Listing Share Erosion
· Low
Aggressive competition from rival exchanges structurally erodes Nasdaq's core listing market share, weakening its overarching network effects.
Free cash flow for NDAQ (NDAQ) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.
Operating cash flow is the primary signal: when OCF is negative or significantly below net income, the cash-flow subsection flags the divergence and traces the cause to working-capital, deferred-revenue, or earnings-quality effects.
Capital expenditure is reported as a percentage of revenue alongside the absolute number. Heavy investment phases are separated from harvesting phases so reinvestment intent is legible.
The financing activity row tracks dividends paid, share repurchases, and net debt issuance. Together with FCF, it answers whether buybacks and dividends are funded organically or by issuing debt.
FAQ
NDAQ — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, NDAQ looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $92.0 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $70.2 (range $52.9–$87.7), which implies roughly 23.7% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for NDAQ is $52.9–$87.7, with a midpoint of $70.2. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for NDAQ's archetype.
Our current rating for NDAQ is Reduce with a confidence score of 82/100. NDAQ is rated Reduce at $91.98 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $70.15, implying -23.73% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for NDAQ are: Severe IPO Drought; Data Pricing Regulation; Listing Share Erosion. The single biggest risk is Severe IPO Drought: A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.
Our current rating for NDAQ is Reduce, issued with a confidence score of 82/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($52.9–$87.7) versus the current price of $92.0.
NDAQ is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for NDAQ.
