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ALNY trades against a final fair-value range of $387.78-$974.55, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $388, high $975, with mid-point at $666.
Stock analysis

ALNY ALNY fair value $388–$975

ALNY
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-13Следующее обновление: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Hyper-growth
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Цена
$292.03
▲ +373.72 (+127.97%)
Справедливая стоимость
$666
$388–$975
Рекомендация
Активно покупать
confidence 86/100
Потенциал роста
+128.0%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$565.89
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$39.0B
P/E fwd 21.0
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Composite fair value $666 with high case $975.
  • Implied upside of 128.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 86/100 · Hyper-growth.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$666
Margin of safety
+56.1%
Confidence
86/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$292.03Price
Low $387.78
Mid $665.75
High $974.55

ALNY trades against a final fair-value range of $387.78-$974.55, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • First-mover advantage and foundational IP
    First-mover advantage and foundational IP in RNA interference.
  • Established commercial infrastructure across global
    Established commercial infrastructure across global rare disease markets.
  • Bull thesis
    The market is pricing ALNY as a mature rare-disease biotech rather than an inflecting hyper-growth platform.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

Under an extreme stress test where the prevalent disease pipeline yields zero commercial value, ALNY reverts to a mature rare-disease biotech. This drops terminal multiples to 15x and compresses peak margins to 25%, resulting in our $387 bear caseBear caseThe worst-realistic outcome — what happens if our top three risks materialize together. Used to set the floor of our fair-value range and inform position sizing. floor.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

Prevalent Disease Pipeline Failure

25%· Medium

Key prevalent indication readouts, such as hypertension or obesity, fail to show superiority, restricting TAM strictly to rare diseases.

FV impact
Compresses valuation to $387 floor.
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Squeeze from Pricing Pressure

· Medium

IRA and competitive pressure limit peak operating margins below the projected 35%, trapping the firm in a lower-return profile.

FV impact
Drops valuation to $480 FCFF DCF baseline.
Trigger
24-36 months

Genetic Medicine Disruption

· Low

CRISPR and base editing therapies permanently cure indications ALNY currently manages chronically, destroying chronic recurring revenue streams.

FV impact
Terminal growth drops to 0%, valuation below $300.
Trigger
5+ years
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Delay or failure in Zilebesiran clinical readouts.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins failing to expand toward the 35% target.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
R&D expanding disproportionately to revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increased competitive trial data from gene-editing peers.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexpected regulatory pushback on novel delivery mechanisms.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Выручка$1.04B$1.83B$2.25B$3.71B+53.0%
Валовая прибыль$868.6M$1.52B$1.92B$3.03B+51.7%
Операционная прибыль$-785.1M$-282.2M$-176.9M$501.6M—
Чистая прибыль$-1.13B$-440.2M$-278.2M$313.7M—
EPS (разводнённая)$-9.30$-3.52$-2.18$2.33—
EBITDA$-926.6M$-258.2M$-178.8M$631.4M—
R&D$883.0M$1.00B$1.13B$1.32B+14.3%
SG&A$770.7M$795.6M$975.5M$1.21B+16.3%

Баллы качества

OCF / Чистая прибыль
1.67×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Fail
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
22.0%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Индивидуальные подписчики — с §4ещё 11 разделов

Прочитайте полный анализ — ещё 11 разделов.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

ALNY — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ALNY looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $292 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $666 (range $388–$975), which implies roughly 128.0% upside to the midpoint.

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