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JD.com is a mature quality compounder with a highly defensible owned-logistics network. However, intense price competition from PDD and sluggish consumer demand in China restrict near-term growth and margin expansion, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple. Fair value range: low $31.8, high $56.4, with mid-point at $44.1.
Stock analysis

JD fair value $32–$56

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Проанализировано: 2026-05-20Следующее обновление: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Цена
$32.38
▲ +11.69 (+36.10%)
Справедливая стоимость
$44
$32–$56
Рекомендация
Активно покупать
confidence 88/100
Потенциал роста
+36.1%
upside to fair value
Запас прочности
$37.46
MoS level · 15%
Капитализация
$43.7B
P/E fwd 7.5
Английский по умолчаниюRU
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§1 Краткое резюме

  • Highly defensible owned-logistics network supports FCF visibility.
  • Price competition and sluggish demand restrict near-term growth.
  • Discounted 12x terminal multiple prices in structural China risks.
  • 36.1% upside to $44.07 base case fair value target.
Fair value
$44
Margin of safety
+26.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$32.38Price
Low $31.76
Mid $44.07
High $56.43

JD.com is a mature quality compounder with a highly defensible owned-logistics network. However, intense price competition from PDD and sluggish consumer demand in China restrict near-term growth and margin expansion, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple.

  • Owned-logistics network
    Owned-logistics network
  • Supply chain scale
    Supply chain scale
  • Bull thesis
    Composite fair value of $44.07 synthesizes strong FCF metrics with aggressive upside potential.

§2 Медвежий сценарий

Persistent deflationary pressures and aggressive subsidization by rivals erode margins, causing revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. to stagnate and structural multiple compression.

Как может разрушиться эта теза

PDD price war escalation

· High

Aggressive subsidization from PDD permanently impairs JD's 1P retail margins.

FV impact
Downside to $31.76
Trigger
12-24 months

China macro stagnation

· Medium

Persistent deflationary pressures and sluggish consumer demand prevent top-line recovery.

FV impact
Terminal multiple compression to 10x
Trigger
1-3 years

Regulatory shifts

· Low

Unfavorable regulatory actions affecting ADRs or Chinese internet platforms.

FV impact
Severe multiple compression
Trigger
Unpredictable
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
МетрикаТекущееТриггерный порог
Sequential decline in operating margin below 3.5%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Market share loss to PDD in core categoriesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in revenue growth below 3%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increase in fulfillment costs eroding logistics advantageMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Weakness in consumer discretionary spending metricsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Финансовая история

Отчёт о прибылях — последние шесть периодов
СтатьяT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Период2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Выручка$1,046.24B$1,084.66B$1,158.82B$1,309.09B+7.8%
Валовая прибыль$147.07B$159.70B$183.87B$210.03B+12.6%
Операционная прибыль$18.34B$28.91B$39.57B$3.69B-41.4%
Чистая прибыль$10.38B$24.17B$41.36B$19.63B+23.7%
EPS (разводнённая)$6.42$15.22$26.86$12.90+26.2%
EBITDA$23.21B$42.82B$63.34B$37.87B+17.7%
R&D$16.89B$16.39B$17.03B$22.23B+9.6%
SG&A$48.83B$49.84B$56.84B$95.93B+25.2%

Баллы качества

F-балл Пиотроски
5 / 9
Сводный балл качества 0–9
Z-балл Альтмана
2.37
Риск банкротства (>3 безопасно)
M-балл Бениша
-2.52
Риск манипуляций с прибылью
OCF / Чистая прибыль
0.97×
>1 указывает на высокое качество прибыли
Фильтр качества учёта
Pass
Фильтр с учётом сектора
ROIC
6.7%
Доходность инвестированного капитала
Раздел 3

Numbers analysis

Денежный поток

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Распределение капитала

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

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FAQ

JD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, JD looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $32.4 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $44.1 (range $31.8–$56.4), which implies roughly 36.1% upside to the midpoint.

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