JD.com, Inc. (JD)
NASDAQ: JD · Real-Time Price · USD
$30.1
-0.08 (-0.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: JD rated Strong Buy
Strong Buy based on 36.1% upside to $44.07 composite fair value.
Fair value (mid)
$44.1 / share
$31.8 – $56.4
Upside to FV
+36.1%
from $30.1
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Composite fair value of $44.07 synthesizes strong FCF metrics with aggressive upside potential.
Biggest risk
PDD price war escalation
PDD price war escalation: Aggressive subsidization from PDD permanently impairs JD's 1P retail margins.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
Strong Buy. JD is a mature quality compounder with a defensible logistics network. Current valuation of $32.38 provides a substantial margin of safety against the $44.07 base case.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $43.7B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 187.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.8B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $1.84 | |
| Shares out | 1.4B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 16.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 7.5x | |
| Dividend | $1.00 (3.32%) | |
| Volume | 8,018,498 | |
| Beta | 0.40 | |
| Price target | $39.3 | +30.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 187.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.8B
- EPS (ttm)
- $1.84
- P/E (trailing)
- 16.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 7.5x
- Market cap
- $43.7B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $1,046.24B | $1,084.66B | $1,158.82B | $1,309.09B | +7.8% |
| Gross profit | $147.07B | $159.70B | $183.87B | $210.03B | +12.6% |
| Operating income | $18.34B | $28.91B | $39.57B | $3.69B | -41.4% |
| Net income | $10.38B | $24.17B | $41.36B | $19.63B | +23.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.42 | $15.22 | $26.86 | $12.90 | +26.2% |
| EBITDA | $23.21B | $42.82B | $63.34B | $37.87B | +17.7% |
| R&D | $16.89B | $16.39B | $17.03B | $22.23B | +9.6% |
| SG&A | $48.83B | $49.84B | $56.84B | $95.93B | +25.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $31.8
- Fair value (mid)
- $44.1
- Fair value (high)
- $56.4
- Current price
- $30.1
- Upside to mid
- +36.1%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $30.85 | 35% |
| Owner earnings | $34.43 | 25% |
| Discounted earnings | $90.36 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $57.60 | 15% |
| Forward earnings | $62.50 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $14.74 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$39.3
+30.3%
In the news
Latest news · JD
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $43.7B
- P/E (trailing)
- 16.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 7.5x
- P/S
- 0.2x
- P/B
- 1.3x
- PEG
- 3.95
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.6x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 9.3%
- Operating margin
- 0.3%
- ROE
- 7.6%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- ROIC
- 1.7%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.36
- Current ratio
- 1.22
- Quick ratio
- 0.79
Trading
- Beta
- 0.40
- Volume
- 8,018,498
- Dividend yield
- 3.3%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +36.1% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$56.43
+74.3% from spot
Macroeconomic stimulus in China revives consumer spending, while JD's supply chain scale and 3P marketplace expansion yield significant operating leverage, driving earnings growth above 20%.
- Macro stimulus revives consumer spending
- Earnings growth exceeds 20%
- 3P marketplace yields operating leverage
Base60%
Price target
$44.07
+36.1% from spot
JD.com operates as a mature quality compounder with defensible logistics. Intense price competition and sluggish demand restrict near-term growth, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple of 12x.
- Revenue growth fades from 5.95% to 3%
- Operating margin normalizes at 3.5%
- Terminal multiple at 12x
Bear20%
Price target
$31.76
-1.9% from spot
Bear case ties to the low end of the final fair-value range and assumes the key risk drivers in the bear-case section persist.
- Persistent deflationary pressures
- Subsidization by rivals erodes margins
- Structural multiple compression
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $44.1.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $30.9 | +2.4% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $34.4 | +14.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $90.4 | +199.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 15% | $57.6 | +91.2% | |
| Forward earnings | 10% | $62.5 | +107.4% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $14.7 | -51.1% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $44.1 | +36.1% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($44.08). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $54.7 | $62.2 | $72.2 | $77.1 | $77.1 |
| 7.1% | $44.1 | $48.8 | $54.7 | $62.2 | $72.2 |
| 8.1% | $36.9 | $40.2 | $44.1 | $48.8 | $54.7 |
| 9.1% | $31.7 | $34.1 | $36.9 | $40.2 | $44.1 |
| 10.1% | $27.8 | $29.7 | $31.7 | $34.1 | $36.9 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.4
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment7.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality4.5
Capital Efficiency4.5
Weighted composite
5.4/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.4 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 4.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Base sizing appropriate given strong buy rating, though tempered by 88/100 confidence score due to multiple expansion uncertainty.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$30.1
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Re-evaluate if operating margins compress sequentially or PDD price war accelerates beyond baseline assumptions.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E7.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE7.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC1.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All JD indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
271
Groups with data
11
Currency
CNY
Showing 271 of 271 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on JD
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this JD report
What is the current JD stock rating?
JD.com, Inc. is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full JD analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/JD/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for JD?
The latest report frames JD around $32 to $56. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the JD page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyJD · Fair value $44.1+36.1% · Confidence 88/100