С вашего разрешения мы используем ограниченную аналитику с защитой конфиденциальности, чтобы понять, какие исследовательские сценарии работают. Мы не используем рекламные трекеры или запись сеансов. Этот выбор можно изменить в настройках. Прочитайте Политику конфиденциальности.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MS — frequently asked questions
Is Morgan Stanley overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-22, MS looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 206 USD versus our fair value of 120 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 155 USD. That implies roughly 41.9% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-22, gives MS a fair value of 120 USD and a potential value of 155 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Morgan Stanley's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MS now?
Our latest published rating for MS, analyzed 2026-09-22, is Sell. Morgan Stanley looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 206 USD versus fair value of 120 USD; potential value is 155 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MS?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-22 documents Morgan Stanley's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MS's rating?
Our latest published rating for MS, analyzed 2026-09-22, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 120 USD, the potential value of 155 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (206 USD).
Этот отчёт ещё не переведён. Обновите страницу через несколько минут, когда очередь переводов его обработает.
§1 Краткое резюмеEN
Ответ за 30 секундSell
Цена и стоимость
Цена
$206.12
Справедливая стоимость
$119.68
Потенциальная стоимость
$155.02
На дату
2026-09-21
Почему сценарий может сработать
Accelerating corporate data center artificial intelligence capital expenditures, projected to rise from $850B in 2026 to $1.3T in 2027, could drive substantial debt and equity underwriting fee velocity, lifting valuation toward Potential value of $155.02.
Что изменит нашу оценку
A macroeconomic stagflation shock driving the terminal multiple below 10.4x.
We rate Morgan Stanley as a Sell. The shares trade at a substantial premium to fundamental value, leaving investors with an unfavorable risk-reward balance.4
Our rating is Sell. For an ordinary investor, this means avoiding new share purchases and selling or trimming existing holdings to preserve capital against potential downside.
On September 21, 2026, the stock was priced at $206.12. This price sits 72.2% above our Fair value of $119.68, representing an upside of -41.9%. It also exceeds our Potential value of $155.02.4
The primary downside risk is a slowdown in capital markets underwriting combined with fee compression in wealth management. If market declines reduce asset values, advisory fees shrink while dealmaking falls. Investors would observe this risk unfolding if Institutional Securities quarterly revenue drops below $6.0B for two consecutive quarters.
The business could outperform if corporate artificial intelligence infrastructure investments surge to $1.3T in 2027. That expansion would lift underwriting fees and investment banking profits toward Potential value of $155.02. However, this potential upside remains secondary to the substantial valuation premium.5
Switching Costs
Wealth management client inertia and multi-product corporate relationships anchor $31.75B in FY2025 fee-based revenue with demonstrated pricing leverage in specialized products.5,8
Tier-one underwriting brand and institutional trust enable the firm to intermediate complex multi-year corporate capital requirements.5
Cycle upside
Resurgent debt and equity underwriting driven by corporate refinancing and an expanding IPO backlog.5
Рекомендация дома
We rate Morgan Stanley a Sell because the share price of $206.12 on September 21, 2026 stands at a 72.2% premium to our Fair value of $119.68, leaving no margin of safety against potential capital markets contractions.4
Обзор компании
Institutional Securities provides a variety of products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions and ultra-high net worth clients. Investment Banking services consist of capital raising and financial advisory services, including the underwriting of debt, equity securities and other products, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings and project finance. Its Markets business, which comprises Equity and Fixed Income, provides sales, financing, prime brokerage, market-making, and Asia wealth management services and holds certain business-related investments. MORGAN STANLEY is a global financial services firm that maintains significant market positions in each of its business segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the company provides a wide variety of products and services to a large and diversified group of clients and customers, including corporations, governments, financial institutions and individuals.
Additional information related to its business segments, respective clients, and products and services provided is included under “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.” MORGAN STANLEY has offices, operations and data centers located around the world.
§2 Медвежий сценарийEN
Under a severe stagflation scenario, falling asset prices cut wealth management advisory fees while institutional dealmaking freezes. Negative FY2025 operating cash flow of -$17.89B limits capital flexibility, forcing multiple de-rating.
The Bear scenario envisions persistent macroeconomic stagflation, subdued capital market activity, and fee compression across wealth management. Underwriting freezes and elevated capital costs reduce earnings power, driving substantial multiple contraction. Confirmation would be marked by consecutive quarters of declining institutional revenue and net asset outflows.
Как может разрушиться эта теза
Protracted capital markets underwriting freeze and multiple de-rating driven by macro stagflation
Macroeconomic stagflation freezes corporate capital markets underwriting and compresses the terminal valuation multiple toward Goldman Sachs at 12.96x forward earnings, triggering valuation contraction if the terminal multiple falls below 10.4x.3
FV impact
-16.8%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 12 months
Сигналы раннего предупреждения для мониторинга
Пять событий, которые ослабят наш инвестиционный тезис.
Negative revenue growth indicates that market declines or price discounting by competing advisors have overwhelmed net new asset inflows, eroding the fee-based compounding engine that stabilizes firm profitability across market cycles.
Текущее значение:$31.75B in FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиAnnual revenue growth falls below 0.0% over any 12-month period
§3 Конкурентный ровEN
Narrow
Morgan Stanley maintains a narrow economic moat grounded in high switching costs across wealth management and intangible brand assets in institutional securities.
While wealth advisory fees generate dependable baseline earnings, aggressive pricing from independent registered investment advisors and point-to-point capital placement present enduring competitive friction.
01Switching Costs — Wealth management client inertia and multi-product corporate relationships anchor $31.75B in FY2025 fee-based revenue with demonstrated pricing leverage in specialized products.Moderate
02Intangible Assets — Tier-one underwriting brand and institutional trust enable the firm to intermediate complex multi-year corporate capital requirements.Moderate
Известные угрозы для рва
Угроза
Серьёзность
Временная шкала
Митигация
Discount RIA fee compression and digital wealth disintermediation
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($119.68). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
The Base scenario targets $119.68 with a probability of 55.0%, implying an expected return of -41.9% from $206.12. This path assumes steady wealth fee growth and normalized institutional trading revenues. Disconfirmation would occur if underwriting dealflow stalls or advisory margins compress over coming quarters.
Reported FY2025 operating cash flow of -$17.89B and free cash flow of -$20.79B reflect balance sheet financing flows and trading asset inventory adjustments typical of major broker-dealers, rather than structural operational cash deficits.6,7
Распределение капитала
Capital return centers on cash dividends of $6.59B in FY2025 and repurchases, shrinking diluted average shares from 1,646M in FY2023 to 1,592M in FY2025 and 1,570.6M shares outstanding in September 2026.
Durable wealth management advisory fees provide a solid earnings baseline, while institutional securities provides cyclical upside leverage during capital market recoveries.
Institutional Securities revenue rose to $33.08B in FY2025 with a 65% efficiency ratio in early 2026.
Последняя выручка115 млрд $CAGR выручки +13,8 %
Операционная маржа19,1 %Фискальных периодов: 10
Последний свободный денежный поток-20,8 млрд $FY2025
Чистая денежная позиция198,3 млрд $FY2025
Структура отчёта о прибылях и убыткахКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.30 июн. 2026 г.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Выручка34,5 млрд $Себестоимость выручки−13,2 млрд $Валовая прибыль21,3 млрд $Операционные расходы−13,9 млрд $Операционная прибыль7,4 млрд $Внереализационные статьи и налоги−1,8 млрд $Чистая прибыль5,6 млрд $
Данные финансовой истории
Выручка
34 470 000 000 $
Себестоимость выручки
13 220 000 000 $
Валовая прибыль
21 250 000 000 $
Операционные расходы
13 852 000 000 $
Операционная прибыль
7 398 000 000 $
Внереализационные статьи и налоги
-1 817 000 000 $
Чистая прибыль
5 581 000 000 $
Обзор балансаКак представлены и профинансированы заявленные активы за выбранный период.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Структура активовИсточники финансирования
Активы, всего1,4 трлн $Денежные средства111,7 млрд $Оборотные активы654,7 млрд $Обязательства, всего1,3 трлн $Краткосрочные обязательства559,6 млрд $Акционерный капитал112,7 млрд $
Данные структуры баланса
Активы, всего
1 420 270 000 000 $
Денежные средства
111 695 000 000 $
Оборотные активы
654 691 000 000 $
Обязательства, всего
1 307 618 000 000 $
Краткосрочные обязательства
559 572 000 000 $
Акционерный капитал
112 652 000 000 $
Мост денежных потоковКак операционный денежный поток превратился в свободный денежный поток в FY2024.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Сверка операционного денежного потока
Чистая прибыль13,4 млрд $Амортизация+5,2 млрд $Компенсация акциями+1,6 млрд $Прочие операционные корректировки−18,8 млрд $Операционный денежный поток1,4 млрд $
Сверка денежных средств на начало и конец
Денежные средства на начало89,2 млрд $Операционный денежный поток+1,4 млрд $Инвестиционный денежный поток−29,5 млрд $Финансовый денежный поток+46,8 млрд $Влияние обменного курса−2,5 млрд $Денежные средства на конец105,4 млрд $
1,4 млрд $ − 3,5 млрд $Свободный денежный поток -2,1 млрд $
Данные моста денежных потоков
Чистая прибыль
13 390 000 000 $
Операционный приток
20 173 000 000 $
Амортизация
5 161 000 000 $
Компенсация акциями
1 622 000 000 $
Операционный денежный поток
1 362 000 000 $
Операционный отток
18 811 000 000 $
Доступные денежные средства
137 350 000 000 $
Денежные средства на начало
89 232 000 000 $
Финансовый приток
46 756 000 000 $
Инвестиционный отток
29 460 000 000 $
Capex
3 462 000 000 $
Прочая инвестиционная деятельность
25 998 000 000 $
Влияние обменного курса
2 504 000 000 $
Денежные средства на конец
105 386 000 000 $
Инвестиционный денежный поток
-29 460 000 000 $
Финансовый денежный поток
46 756 000 000 $
Выручка по регионамДоля общей выручки за 2025-12-31.
70,6 млрд $Общая выручка
Выручка по регионамДоля
Americas52,9 млрд $74,9 %+12,7 % г/г
Asia9,4 млрд $13,3 %+23,4 % г/г
EMEA8,3 млрд $11,8 %+15,7 % г/г
Источник: SEC EDGAR · Подано 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
Данные о структуре выручки: Выручка по регионам
Выручка по регионам
Выручка
Доля
г/г
Americas
52,9 млрд $
74,9 %
12,7 %
Asia
9,4 млрд $
13,3 %
23,4 %
EMEA
8,3 млрд $
11,8 %
15,7 %
Выручка и прибыльКак масштаб бизнеса преобразуется в отчетную прибыль.
Денежные средства и долгДоступная ликвидность относительно общей задолженности.
Генерация денежных средствОперационный денежный поток в сравнении со свободным денежным потоком.
РентабельностьДинамика валовой, операционной и чистой маржи.
Финансовые данные на конкретную дату, использованные в анализе от 2026-09-22.
Morgan Stanley (MS) trades at 15.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Robinhood Markets, Inc., The Charles Schwab Corporation and BlackRock Inc., as of 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22.
§10 Отрасль и циклEN
Фаза цикла
Expansion
Industry capital expenditures stand at 1.7x depreciation and 1.6% of revenue. As supply and capacity data are unavailable, the cycle perspective is demand-led and evidence-limited.
Бычий цикл
Resurgent debt and equity underwriting driven by corporate refinancing and an expanding IPO backlog.
Медвежий цикл
Elevated interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty restrict corporate advisory activity and suppress trading volumes.
Surging corporate spending on computing infrastructure expands multi-year private placement and public underwriting mandates.
Private Credit and Point-to-Point Corporate Financing
negative
Direct capital raising among non-bank ecosystem participants bypasses traditional investment banking fee pools.
Позиционирование
Well anchored by top-tier investment banking distribution and the leading Americas wealth management network.8
§11 Управление позициейEN
Размер позиции
With the stock trading at $206.12 as of 2026-09-21, representing a 72.2% premium to Fair value of $119.68, zero portfolio exposure is recommended under our Sell rating.4
Риск
Eliminate downside exposure by divesting existing equity holdings, avoiding unhedged long exposure, and managing financial sector beta via liquid index options.
Транши входа
Уровень
Действие
Почему
Below $119.68 (Fair value)
Review valuation parameters
Permits entry aligned with fundamental earnings power and normalized dividend yield.
Consider initial accumulation
Provides an attractive margin of safety anchored in regulated bank cash dividend capacity.
Транши выхода
Уровень
Действие
$206.12 (Report-date price)
Liquidate existing long positions to harvest gains.
$214.33 (50-day moving average)
Complete remaining disposals on any short-term technical bounce.
Annual revenue falls below $30.0B over a 12-month period
Maintain zero allocation and confirm that fee compression is impairing franchise compounding.8
§12 Точки зрения инвесторовEN
Value Investor
Avoid
The shares traded at $206.12 on September 21, 2026, standing 72.2% above our Fair value of $119.68, offering no margin of safety.4
Income Investor
Avoid
Although the firm paid $6.59B in dividends in FY2025 ($4.60 per share), the elevated share price compresses yield while negative operating cash flow of -$17.89B constrains capital returns.7
Growth and Momentum Investor
Avoid
Even with positive corporate technology financing trends, the price exceeds our Potential value of $155.02, skewing risk-reward downward.5
§14 Итоговая рекомендацияEN
Действие
Продавать
We recommend a Sell rating on Morgan Stanley. The stock traded at $206.12 on September 21, 2026, standing 72.2% above our Fair value of $119.68.4
While wealth management generates recurring fee income, prevailing market levels leave investors vulnerable to multiple contraction if underwriting activity slows or advisory fees compress.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Private notes
Visible only to you. Synced to this device.
0 chars
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-09-22 · Published 2026-09-22 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figureCited in Сценарии
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Regulatory capital buffer tightening and monetary policy shock lifting cost of equity by 200 bps
Monetary tightening and regulatory capital buffer expansions push the cost of equity above 11.83% against strict cost of equity of 9.94% and pre-tax cost of debt of 19.55%, triggering steep dividend discount valuation declines.2
FV impact
-9.7%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 24 months
Prolonged asset market decline and retail fee compression dampening 5-year revenue growth by 10 percentage points
A multi-year equity market contraction and discount RIA fee pricing lower 5-year annual revenue growth below -2.0% because advisory fees depend on asset price levels, depressing operating margins toward FY2023 trough levels of 13.38%.5
FV impact
-9.4%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
A steep drop in operating margin reflects loss of operating leverage across institutional trading and underwriting, demonstrating that fixed compensation and technology infrastructure spending cannot be quickly flexed downward during cyclical volume downturns.
Текущее значение:19.09% in FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиOperating margin drops below 15.0% over a trailing four-quarter period
Sustained quarterly revenue declines reveal a deep freeze in debt and equity underwriting alongside muted secondary market-making volumes, impairing the primary driver of upside operating leverage and earnings velocity.
Текущее значение:$33.08B in FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиQuarterly revenue falls below $6.0B for two consecutive quarters
Contraction in international revenue share signals that cross-border dealmaking and global corporate intermediation are succumbing to regulatory fragmentation and trade barriers, curtailing the firm's global reach advantage.
Текущее значение:15.4% of consolidated revenue in FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиCombined Asia and EMEA revenue falls below 10.0% of total revenue over a full fiscal year
Persistent cash outflows highlight balance sheet funding friction and expanding working capital absorption in broker-dealer assets, reducing surplus liquidity available for share repurchases and cash dividend payouts.
Текущее значение:-$17.89B in FY2025
Предупреждение, еслиOperating cash flow remains negative for a second consecutive fiscal year
medium
medium-term
Structuring expertise and global distribution scale keep public and private syndicate syndication vital for massive infrastructure programs.5
Limitation: Terminal value is 71.9% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Wealth management net new asset inflows sustain high margin fee generation8
The Bull scenario targets $155.02 with a probability of 20.0%, offering an expected return of -24.8% from $206.12. This outcome requires surging corporate capital expenditures and an active IPO calendar driving strong institutional operating leverage. Disconfirmation would emerge if corporate financing bypasses traditional syndicates into direct private deals.
Conversion of deal pipeline into completed transactions drives substantial operating leverage and fee generation in Institutional Securities.
