ADI trades against a final fair-value range of $135.63-$284.54, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $136, high $285, with mid-point at $209.
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§1 Yönetici özeti
Composite fair value $209 with high case $285.
Implied downside of 49.9% to fair value.
Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature dividend.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$209
Margin of safety
-99.5%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$416.52Price
Low $135.63
Mid $208.81
High $284.54
ADI trades against a final fair-value range of $135.63-$284.54, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Cycle upside
Accelerated electrification and industrial automation drives short-term capacity bookings and premium pricing power.
ADI (ADI)'s revenue growth is reported year-over-year across the most recent five fiscal years, with the deceleration or acceleration curve called out in the numbers-analysis subsection of the parent financials tab.
The deceleration curve is calibrated by archetype: hyper-growth names get a 5-10 percentage-point-per-year glide path, mature compounders converge to GDP-plus-inflation. Visibility-adjusted deceleration is documented in the assumption ledger.
Where the company reports segments, the segment composition is included in the financials section. The competitive-moat tab covers the qualitative drivers (pricing power, switching costs, distribution).
The parent financials tab carries five years of standardized revenue history. For the longer-term trend, the report's appendix logs data provenance and the source dataset identifier.
FAQ
ADI — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, ADI looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $417 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $209 (range $136–$285), which implies roughly 49.9% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for ADI is $136–$285, with a midpoint of $209. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for ADI's archetype.
Our current rating for ADI is Sell with a confidence score of 82/100. ADI is rated Sell at $416.52 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $208.81, implying -49.87% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for ADI are: Cyclical Recovery Failure; Multiple Collapse; Margin Compression. The single biggest risk is Cyclical Recovery Failure: The anticipated 27.13% Year 1 cyclical revenue recovery completely fails to materialize, leaving capacity severely bloated.
Our current rating for ADI is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 82/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($136–$285) versus the current price of $417.
ADI is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for ADI.