Skip to content
StockMarketAgent

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI)

NASDAQ: ADI · Real-Time Price · USD
$417
+8.01 (+2.0%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research

Our analysis: ADI rated Sell

ADI is rated Sell at $416.52 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $208.81, implying -49.87% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.

Fair value (mid)
$209 / share
$136 – $285
Upside to FV
-49.9%
from $417
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10
Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo
9-phase methodology · same model every month
Biggest opportunityBull case · highest-impact upside lever

Bull: Accelerated adoption of industrial automation and automotive electrification drives sustained double-digit revenue recovery, expanding margins through scale and premium product mix. The market sustains its premium valuation multiple.

Biggest riskTop kill scenario by severity
Cyclical Recovery Failure

Cyclical Recovery Failure: The anticipated 27.13% Year 1 cyclical revenue recovery completely fails to materialize, leaving capacity severely bloated.

Recommended actionConviction: high
Sell

ADI is rated Sell at $416.52 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $208.81, implying -49.87% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 82/100.

Position sizing playbook →
Market cap$203.3B
Revenue (ttm)11.8B
Net income (ttm)2.7B
EPS (ttm)$5.47
Shares out488.2M
P/E (trailing)76.2x
P/E (forward)31.7x
Dividend$4.40 (1.06%)
Volume3,754,421
Beta1.19
Price target$385-7.5%
Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Analog Devices, Inc.ADI
—
Loading chart…

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm)
11.8B
Net income (ttm)
2.7B
EPS (ttm)
$5.47
P/E (trailing)
76.2x
P/E (forward)
31.7x
Market cap
$203.3B

Scenarios & expected return

Probability-weighted: -49.7% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$284.54
-31.7% from spot

Accelerated adoption of industrial automation and automotive electrification drives sustained double-digit revenue recovery, expanding margins through scale and premium product mix. The market sustains its premium valuation multiple.

  • Terminal multiple stretches to 22x.
  • Sustained double-digit recovery post-inventory correction.
Base60%
Price target
$208.81
-49.9% from spot

Our primary Forward Earnings models synthesize to $208.81. ADI achieves near-term cyclical recovery, but the market's implied 27.5% 10-year growth rate proves mathematically impossible for a mature dividend payer, triggering a correction.

  • 27.13% Year 1 cyclical revenue recovery.
  • 18x terminal multiple with 2.5% terminal growth.
Bear20%
Price target
$135.63
-67.4% from spot

Prolonged inventory corrections and macro softness in industrial and automotive segments compress margins and delay revenue recovery, severely pressuring the premium valuation multiple and breaking the assumed 27% near-term bounce.

  • Prolonged macro softness compresses margins.
  • Terminal multiple drops to 14x.

Valuation models & bridge

Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $209.
ModelWeightFV / sharevs spotContribution
Forward earnings50%$229-45.0%
FCFF DCF30%$142-65.9%
Owner earnings20%$258-38.0%
Reverse DCF0%$0.00-100.0%
Ddm0%$57.9-86.1%
Discounted earnings0%$170-59.3%
Multi stage moat fade0%$100.0-76.0%
Peg adjusted peer0%$93.4-77.6%
Composite FV (weighted)100%$209-49.9%

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Ke ↓ / g →1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
8.5%$239$257$279$305$335
9.5%$209$223$239$257$279
10.5%$185$196$209$223$239
11.5%$167$176$185$196$209
12.5%$152$159$167$176$185

Scorecard

Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
ValuationManagementBalanceProfitabilityRevenueRiskCompetitiveEarningsCapital
Valuation9.0
Management7.6
Balance Sheet8.0
Profitability5.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment7.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency3.5
Weighted composite
7.6/10
High quality
CategoryWeightScoreReading
Valuation11%9.0
Management11%7.6
Balance Sheet11%8.0
Profitability11%5.5
Revenue Growth11%9.0
Risk Assessment11%7.5
Competitive Moat11%9.0
Earnings Quality11%9.0
Capital Efficiency11%3.5

Position sizing & entry playbook

Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Zero exposure. The massive divergence between intrinsic value and price mandates avoiding long exposure.
of equity sleeve
Do not enter. Current levels represent extreme mathematical overvaluation based on mature cash flow realities.
Current / pullbacks
Current price
Today’s last trade
$417
Aggressively sell existing long positions at $416.52 to capitalize on the market's severe pricing error prior to cyclical mean reversion.
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
  • Aggressively sell existing long positions at $416.52 to capitalize on the market's severe pricing error prior to cyclical mean reversion.
Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E31.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE7.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC7.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a

All ADI indicators

Market & fundamental data
Available fields
286
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 286 of 286 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

26
MetricValue
Cik
0000006281
Company name
Analog Devices, Inc.
Country
United States
Country code
US
Cusip
032654105
Employees
24,500
Employees Change
500%
Employees Change Percent
2.08
Enterprise value
$208B
Exchange
NASDAQ
Financial currency
USD
First seen
2026-05-09
In Index
SP500, NASDAQ100
Industry
Semiconductors
IPO Date
1972-04-03
Isin
US0326541051
Last refreshed
2026-05-10
Market cap
$203.3B
Market cap category
Mega-Cap
Price
$417
Price currency
USD
Rev Per Employee
479,869.22x
Sector
Technology
Sic
3674
Symbol
ADI
Website
https://www.analog.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

17
MetricValue
Earnings Yield
1.33%
EV Earnings
76.84x
EV Sales Forward
14.24x
EV/EBIT
59.68x
EV/EBITDA
38.1x
EV/FCF
45.61x
EV/Sales
17.69x
FCF yield
2.24%
Forward P/E
34.69x
P/B ratio
6.02x
P/E ratio
76.16x
P/S ratio
17.3x
PE Ratio10 Y
38.9x
PE Ratio3 Y
47.56x
PE Ratio5 Y
46.21x
PEG ratio
1.96x
PS Forward
13.92x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

27
MetricValue
EBIT Margin
29.65%
EBITDA Margin
46.43%
FCF margin
38.79%
Gross margin
62.84%
Gross Profit
$7.4B
Gross Profit Growth
38.41%
Gross Profit Growth Q
42.98%
Gross Profit Growth3 Y
-3.63%
Gross Profit Growth5 Y
13.7%
Net Income
$2.7B
Net Income Growth
73.09%
Net Income Growth Q
112.32%
Net Income Growth Quarters
4%
Net Income Growth Years
1%
Net Income Growth3 Y
-7.59%
Net Income Growth5 Y
14.01%
Pretax Margin
27.41%
Profit Margin
23.02%
Profit Per Employee
$110,484
Profitable Years
33
ROA
4.54
Roa5y
3.96
ROCE
7.98
ROE
7.86
Roe5y
6.67
ROIC
7.55
Roic5y
6.91

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

30
MetricValue
Cagr10y
24.72%
Cagr15y
19.47%
Cagr1y
111.7%
Cagr20y
15.76%
Cagr3y
33.67%
Cagr5y
23.62%
Div CAGR10
9.65%
Div CAGR3
9.03%
Div CAGR5
9.8%
EPS Growth
74.73
EPS Growth Q
116.7
EPS Growth Quarters
4
EPS Growth Years
1
EPS Growth3 Y
-6.12
EPS Growth5 Y
7.72
FCF Growth
43.22%
FCF Growth Q
28.78%
FCF Growth3 Y
2.29%
FCF Growth5 Y
19.03%
OCF Growth
31.6%
OCF Growth Q
21.45%
OCF Growth10 Y
18.08%
OCF Growth3 Y
0.19%
OCF Growth5 Y
19.35%
Revenue Growth
25.91x
Revenue Growth Q
30.42x
Revenue Growth Quarters
4x
Revenue Growth Years
1x
Revenue Growth3 Y
-2.23x
Revenue Growth5 Y
14.95x

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

22
MetricValue
Asset Turnover
$0.25
Assets
$48B
Cash
$4B
Current Assets
$7.6B
Current Liabilities
$4.3B
Debt
$8.7B
Debt EBITDA
$1.58
Debt Equity
$0.26
Debt FCF
$1.91
Equity
$33.8B
Interest Coverage
10.6
Liabilities
$14.2B
Long Term Assets
$40.4B
Long Term Liabilities
$9.9B
Net Cash
$-4.7B
Net Cash By Market Cap
$-2.29
Net Debt EBITDA
$0.85
Net Debt Equity
$0.14
Net Debt FCF
$1.02
Tangible Book Value
$-787.1M
Tangible Book Value Per Share
$-1.61
WACC
10.5

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

6
MetricValue
Current ratio
1.76
Inventory Turnover
2.7
Net Working Capital
$683.9M
Quick ratio
1.25
Working Capital
$3.3B
Working Capital Turnover
$3.9

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

10
MetricValue
Buyback Yield
0.75%
Dividend Growth
8.53%
Dividend Growth Years
23%
Dividend per share
$4.4
Dividend Years
24
Dividend Yield
1.06%
Ex Div Date
2026-03-03
Last Dividend
$1.1
Payout Frequency
Quarterly
Payout Ratio
74.42%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

42
MetricValue
10Y total return
810.41%
1Y total return
111.59%
200-day SMA
285.4
3Y total return
138.89%
50-day SMA
348.4
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA
50over200
5Y total return
188.7%
All Time High
418.8
All Time High Change
-0.53%
All Time High Date
2026-05-08
All Time Low
0.38
All Time Low Change
108,822.59%
All Time Low Date
1979-04-09
ATR
11.16
Beta
1.19
Beta1y
1.6
Beta2y
1.57
Ch YTD
53.58
High
418.8
High52
418.8
High52 Date
2026-05-08
High52ch
-0.53%
Low
413.5
Low52
201
Low52 Date
2025-05-08
Low52ch
107.27%
Ma50ch
19.56%
Premarket Change Percent
2.3
Premarket Price
$418
Premarket Volume
13,551
Price vs 200-day SMA
45.95%
RSI
70.44
RSI Monthly
75.52
RSI Weekly
77.34
Sharpe ratio
2.51x
Sortino ratio
4.58
Total Return
1.8%
Tr YTD
54.07
Tr15y
1,341.33%
Tr1m
27.22%
Tr1w
4.74%
Tr3m
30.39%

Analyst estimates

Ratings, targets, revisions, and forward estimate fields.

18
MetricValue
Analyst Count
22
Analyst Count Top
20
Analyst Price Target Top
$385
Analyst Ratings
Buy
Analyst Ratings Top
Strong Buy
Earnings EPS Estimate
$2.9
Earnings EPS Estimate Growth
56.76
Earnings Revenue Estimate
3,511,514,552x
Earnings Revenue Estimate Growth
33.01x
Operating Income
$3.5B
Operating Income Growth
72.84
Operating Income Growth Q
88.22
Operating Income Growth3 Y
-6.44
Operating Income Growth5 Y
15.05
Operating margin
29.65
Price target
$385
Price Target Change
$-7.46
Price Target Change Top
$-7.64

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

11
MetricValue
Float
486,401,731%
Float Percent
99.63%
Net Borrowing
1,085,426,000
Shares Insiders
0.23%
Shares Institutions
89.4%
Shares Out
488,204,157
Shares Qo Q
-0.32%
Shares Yo Y
-0.75%
Short Float
2.05%
Short Ratio
3.04
Short Shares
2.04

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings yet.

77
MetricValue
Adjusted FCF
$4.2B
Average Volume
3,283,115.05x
Bv Per Share
69.21
CAPEX
$-493.9M
Ch10y
650.9
Ch15y
927.7
Ch1m
27.22
Ch1w
4.74
Ch1y
108.4
Ch20y
1,062.8
Ch3m
29.98
Ch3y
127.1
Ch5y
164.9
Ch6m
82.3
Change
1.96%
Change From Open
-0.35
Close
408.5
Days Gap
2.32
Depreciation Amortization
1,973,743,000
Dollar Volume
1,563,791,434.9
Earnings Date
2026-05-20
Earnings Time
bmo
EBIT
$3.5B
EBITDA
$5.5B
EPS
$5.47
F Score
6
FCF
$4.6B
FCF EV Yield
2.19x
FCF Per Share
$9.34
Financing CF
-3,263,793,000
Fiscal Year End
November
Founded
1,965
Goodwill
26,945,180,000
Graham Number
92.28311
Graham Upside
-77.84
Income Tax
$515.6M
Investing CF
-1,234,249,000
Is Primary Listing
1
Is Spac
No
Last Earnings Date
2026-02-18
Last Report Date
2026-01-31
Last Split Date
2000-03-16
Last Split Type
Forward
Last10k Filing Date
2025-11-25
Lynch Fair Value
$76.61
Lynch Upside
-81.61
Ma150
300.5
Ma150ch
38.63%
Ma20
386
Ma20ch
7.9%
Net CF
555,866,000
Next Earnings Date
2026-05-20
Open
418
Optionable
Yes
P FCF Ratio
44.59
P OCF Ratio
40.24
Payment Date
2026-03-17
Position In Range
57.36
Post Close
416.5
Postmarket Change Percent
0.35
Postmarket Price
$418
Ppne
3,248,983,000
Pre Close
408.5
Price Date
2026-05-08
Price EBITDA
$37.25
Relative Volume
1.14x
Revenue
11,756,796,000x
SBC By Revenue
2.8x
Share Based Comp
329,661,000
Tax By Revenue
4.39x
Tax Rate
16%
Tr20y
1,767.03%
Tr6m
83.52%
Us State
Massachusetts
Views
76
Volume
3,754,421
Z Score
5.81

Deeper analysis on ADI

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
→
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
→
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
→
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
→
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
→
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
→
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
→
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
→
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
→
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
→
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
→
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
→
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
→
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
→

Frequently asked questions

About this ADI report
What is the current ADI stock rating?
Analog Devices, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full ADI analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/ADI/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for ADI?
The latest report frames ADI around $136 to $285. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the ADI page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellADI · Fair value $209-49.9% · Confidence 82/100
Read full analysis →