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Direct answer
KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $736, high $1244, with mid-point at $984.
Stock analysis

KLAC KLAC fair value $736–$1,244

KLAC
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analiz edildi: 2026-05-08Sonraki güncelleme: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Fiyat
$1869.19
▼ -884.78 (-47.33%)
Gerçeğe uygun değer
$984
$736–$1244
Tavsiye
Sat
confidence 84/100
Yükseliş potansiyeli
-47.3%
upside to fair value
Güvenlik Marjı
$836.75
MoS level · 15%
Piyasa Değeri
$244.2B
P/E fwd 37.7
İngilizce yedekTR
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§1 Yönetici özeti

  • Composite fair value $984 with high case $1,244.
  • Implied downside of 47.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 84/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$984
Margin of safety
-89.9%
Confidence
84/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$1,869.19Price
Low $735.74
Mid $984.41
High $1,243.87

KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Dominant market share in advanced
    Dominant market share in advanced metrology and inspection.
  • High capital intensity of advanced
    High capital intensity of advanced node defect detection.
  • Bull thesis
    Value: Extreme overvaluation relative to normalized cash flows.

§2 Olumsuz senaryo

A synchronized downturn in global WFE spending combined with strict export bans on advanced metrology tools to China severely contracts near-term revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions.. Elevated R&D requirements for 2nm transitions crush operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA., forcing margins well below mid-cycle averages.

Bu tezin bozulabileceği yollar

China Export Ban Expansion

· Medium

Complete restriction on all tier-1 process control equipment sales to Chinese foundries, eliminating a high-margin revenue vector.

FV impact
High
Trigger
12-24 months

WFE Cyclical Collapse

· Medium

Prolonged memory and foundry capex freeze delays 2nm and advanced packaging ramps, stalling KLA's growth trajectory.

FV impact
High
Trigger
6-18 months

Margin Compression via R&D

· Low

Defect detection at angstrom levels demands exponentially higher R&D, structurally degrading peak operating margins below 35%.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
24-36 months
İzlenecek erken uyarı sinyalleri
MetrikMevcutTetikleme eşiği
Consecutive quarters of declining WFE capex forecasts.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increased stringency in US Department of Commerce export controls.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential operating margin degradation below 38%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delay in major foundry 2nm production schedules.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in advanced packaging (CoWoS) capacity expansion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Mali geçmiş

Gelir tablosu — son altı dönem
KalemT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Dönem2021-06-302022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Gelir—$9.21B$10.50B$9.81B$12.16B+7.2%
Brüt kâr—$5.62B$6.28B$5.88B$7.40B+7.1%
Faaliyet kârı—$3.65B$3.99B$3.64B$5.01B+8.2%
Net kâr—$3.32B$3.39B$2.76B$4.06B+5.2%
EPS (sulandırılmış)$13.37$21.92$24.15$20.28—+11.0%
EBITDA—$4.01B$4.50B$3.90B$5.34B+7.4%
R&D—$1.11B$1.30B$1.28B$1.36B+5.3%
SG&A—$860.0M$986.3M$969.5M$1.03B+4.6%

Kalite puanları

Piotroski F-skor
9 / 9
0–9 kalite bileşkesi
Altman Z-skor
14.61
İflas riski (>3 güvenli)
Beneish M-skor
-2.25
Kazanç manipülasyonu riski
OCF / Net kâr
1.01×
>1 yüksek kazanç kalitesini gösterir
Muhasebe kalitesi kapısı
Pass
Sektöre göre ayarlanmış kapı
ROIC
36.2%
Yatırılan sermaye getirisi
Bölüm 3

Numbers analysis

Nakit akışı

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Sermaye tahsisi

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Bireysel aboneler — §4 ve sonrası11 bölüm daha

Tam analizi okuyun — 11 bölüm daha.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Kapsanan her sembol için tam rapor
24 ay tavsiye arşivi
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FAQ

KLAC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, KLAC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1869 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $984 (range $736–$1244), which implies roughly 47.3% downside to the midpoint.

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