Khi được bạn cho phép, chúng tôi sử dụng phân tích giới hạn, chú trọng quyền riêng tư để hiểu hành trình nghiên cứu nào hiệu quả. Chúng tôi không dùng trình theo dõi quảng cáo hoặc ghi lại phiên. Bạn có thể thay đổi lựa chọn này trong Tùy chọn. Đọc Chính sách quyền riêng tư.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
ALGN — frequently asked questions
Is Align Technology Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-20, ALGN looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 148 USD versus our fair value of 121 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 121 USD. That implies roughly 17.8% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20, gives ALGN a fair value of 121 USD and a potential value of 121 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Align Technology Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy ALGN now?
Our latest published rating for ALGN, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Reduce. Align Technology Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 148 USD versus fair value of 121 USD; potential value is 121 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for ALGN?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-20 documents Align Technology Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is ALGN's rating?
Our latest published rating for ALGN, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Reduce, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 121 USD, the potential value of 121 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (148 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyReduce
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$147.61
Giá trị hợp lý
$121.31
Giá trị tiềm năng
$121.34
Tính đến
2026-09-18
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Accelerating clear aligner adoption among teenagers and expanding iTero digital scanner installations across underpenetrated European and Asia-Pacific dental channels, driving top-line revenue growth toward 6% and operating margins toward 18% as manufacturing automation in Poland scales.
We rate Align Technology as Reduce. The stock trades above our estimate of intrinsic value, suggesting investors should trim existing positions and defer new purchases.
A Reduce rating indicates that the shares offer an unattractive risk-reward profile at prevailing market levels. For an ordinary investor, this means capital is better preserved elsewhere, and existing holdings should be trimmed rather than expanded.
The report was prepared at a price of $147.61 on September 18, 2026. This price stands 21.7% above our Fair value of $121.31 and exceeds our Potential value of $121.34. With the shares trading above both benchmarks, the current valuation provides no margin of safety against operational or macroeconomic setbacks.
The primary risk to our outlook is a worsening consumer spending environment that prompts adult patients to postpone elective, out-of-pocket orthodontic treatments. If this occurs, investors would observe Clear Aligner segment revenue growth turning negative year over year. Combined with substantial unallocated corporate overhead, falling case volumes would compress consolidated operating margins below 11.0% and severely impair free cash flow generation.6,7
Conversely, the primary path for business outperformance relies on accelerated clear aligner adoption among teenagers and international dental practices. If next-generation iTero scanner placements increase case starts across underpenetrated overseas markets, sales growth would re-accelerate and fixed manufacturing costs would be absorbed more efficiently. Higher operating cash flows would then support value per share approaching our Potential value of $121.34, though this remains secondary to the downside risks at the report-date price.7
Switching Costs
Over 18 million cumulative patients treated and extensive dental practice integration with ClinCheck software and iTero intraoral scanners create substantial switching costs for dental professionals.7
Proprietary SmartTrack material patents and Invisalign brand recognition allow Align to sustain FY2025 gross margins of 67.19%, maintaining a 1,319 bps premium over the healthcare products industry average of 54.00%.6
Network Effects
An international installation base across Europe and Asia-Pacific generated $2,373.78M in FY2025 international revenue, reinforcing scanner network adoption and clinical case data feedback loops.7
Khuyến nghị của hãng
We rate Align Technology as Reduce because the report-date price of $147.61 sits well above our Fair value of $121.31 while unallocated corporate overhead and slowing elective dental procedure growth constrain operating earnings.
Tổng quan công ty
ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC. has two operating segments: (1) Clear Aligner and (2) Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services (“Systems and Services”). For the year ended December 31, 2025, Clear Aligner net revenues represented approximately 80% of worldwide net revenues, while Systems and Services net revenues represented the remaining 20%. ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC. sells the majority of its products and services directly through a dedicated and specialized sales force to its customers: orthodontists, GPs, including prosthodontists, periodontists, oral surgeons and dental laboratories. General economic conditions impact its business and financial results, and the company has historically experienced seasonal trends within its two operating segments, customer channels and geographic locations the company serves. Sales of the Invisalign System are often weaker in Europe, especially southern European countries during the summer months and seasonally higher in China during the third quarter.
Similarly, other international holidays like Lunar New Year can impact its sales in APAC in the first quarter. Income from operations for each segment includes all geographic revenues, related cost of net revenues and operating expenses directly attributable to the reportable segment.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
Under a stressed macroeconomic environment where consumer discretionary budgets contract, adult patient case shipments decline, turning Clear Aligner segment revenue growth negative below 0% YoY. Concurrently, low-cost competition in mild malocclusion restricts average selling price expansion. Because unallocated corporate overhead is projected at -$820.00M in FY2026 and -$845.00M in FY2027, operating deleverage rapidly compresses consolidated GAAP operating margin below 11.0% (down from 13.53% in FY2025). If the market simultaneously re-rates Align's cost of capital to reflect its raw beta of 1.7463 with a Ke exceeding 12.67%, intrinsic valuation falls toward $79.13.
Contraction in adult elective clear aligner procedure volumes
Pricing erosion in mild malocclusion cases from alternative aligner offerings
Persistent unallocated corporate expenses unabsorbed by decelerating top-line revenue
Foreign currency translation headwinds depressing international dollar contributions
The Bear scenario models prolonged consumer discretionary spending weakness, leading adult dental patients to postpone elective clear aligner treatments. Competition from lower-cost aligner alternatives limits average selling price growth in mild-to-moderate malocclusion cases, while dental practices lengthen scanner replacement cycles. Fixed corporate overhead and foreign exchange headwinds compound margin compression. Disconfirmation would require Clear Aligner case volume growth re-accelerating across consecutive fiscal quarters.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Macroeconomic Downturn and Adult Orthodontic Treatment Deferral
Clear Aligner revenue of $3,245.40M accounts for 80.43% of total revenue ($4,034.96M). Elective case deferral during consumer discretionary stress turns segment revenue growth negative below 0% YoY, resulting in a modeled -22.5% fair value impact.6,7
FV impact
-5.1%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Align Technology maintains a narrow competitive moat anchored by its Invisalign brand franchise, proprietary ClinCheck treatment software, and extensive global doctor installation base. With more than 18 million cumulative patients treated, orthodontists and general dental practitioners have accumulated extensive clinical training and operational familiarity with Align's digital systems, creating formidable switching costs. Dental practices face substantial procedural friction, retraining requirements, and patient acceptance hurdles if transitioning to competing clear aligner alternatives.
The company's competitive insulation is reinforced by proprietary SmartTrack material technology and advanced biomechanical algorithms, enabling Align to sustain gross margins of 67.19% in FY2025 ($2,711.01M gross profit on $4,034.96M revenue). This performance maintains a 1,319 basis point premium over the healthcare products industry average of 54.00% and surpasses contact lens manufacturer peer COO at 65.93%. While low-cost alternatives exert pricing pressure in mild malocclusion cases, Align maintains dominant pricing power across complex and comprehensive clinical treatments.
In addition to consumables, Align's Systems and Services segment generated $789.56M in FY2025 revenue and $306.09M in segment operating income (38.77% margin). The deployment of iTero intraoral scanners links restorative and orthodontic dental care directly into Align's digital manufacturing infrastructure. Geographic diversification across Switzerland ($920.59M) and Other International markets ($1,453.19M) accounts for 58.83% of consolidated sales, extending the reach of its digital ecosystem into underpenetrated international territories.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Align generated returns on invested capital of 10.39% in FY2025, operating near its moderate cost of equity Ke of 10.67% and WACC of 10.60%. While ROIC reflects post-pandemic operating income normalization to $545.76M, high gross margins of 67.19% and $490.78M in FY2025 free cash flow demonstrate stable underlying economic profitability.2,5,6
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Switching Costs — Over 18 million cumulative patients treated and extensive dental practice integration with ClinCheck software and iTero intraoral scanners create substantial switching costs for dental professionals.Wide
02Intangible Assets — Proprietary SmartTrack material patents and Invisalign brand recognition allow Align to sustain FY2025 gross margins of 67.19%, maintaining a 1,319 bps premium over the healthcare products industry average of 54.00%.Wide
03Network Effects —
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Low-cost clear aligner competitors and generic direct-to-consumer or dental laboratory alternatives targeting mild-to-moderate malocclusion
medium
12-24 months
Continuous innovation in SmartTrack material, ClinCheck digital features, and integrated restorative dental processes with iTero.
Macroeconomic pressures and consumer discretionary tightening causing prospective adult patients to postpone elective orthodontic procedures
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($121.31). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
The Base scenario assumes modal revenue compounding in low single digits, supported by steady teen Invisalign case adoption and stable international scanner installations. Under this path, operating margins expand modestly as European manufacturing automation takes effect, but unallocated corporate overhead limits operating leverage. Disconfirmation would occur if clear aligner volume contracts or operating margins fail to hold baseline levels by the end of FY2027. At an assessed probability of 60.0%, this scenario yields a target of $121.31, representing an expected return of -17.8% from $147.61 (as of 2026-09-18).
Upgrade to Hold; Re-examine operating margin trajectory and review volume checkpoints without altering capital allocation until margin durability is verified across consecutive quarters.
Kích hoạt: Clear Aligner case shipments accelerating with operating margins expanding above historical baselines
A material beat driven by comprehensive case re-acceleration and overhead leverage would signal improved cash flow generation and could narrow the gap between $147.61 and $121.31.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain the rating; Maintain disciplined position sizing and continue monitoring quarterly Clear Aligner shipment volume and corporate expense trends.
Kích hoạt: Revenue and diluted earnings meeting consensus with operating margins remaining stable
In-line results confirm that revenue growth remains in low single digits while unallocated corporate overhead continues to constrain operating margin expansion, keeping shares trading above $121.31.
Hụt
Downgrade to Sell; Liquidate remaining exposure and re-evaluate only if operations demonstrate sustained operational turnaround.
Kích hoạt: Clear Aligner revenue contracting year over year with consolidated operating margins compressing further
A miss driven by adult procedure deferrals and average selling price erosion would confirm the bear thesis, accelerating margin degradation and widening the downside gap from $147.61 toward our stress scenarios.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Align maintains clean cash generation with operating cash flow consistently exceeding net income. However, high stock-based compensation expenses consume a significant fraction of operating cash flow, and substantial unallocated corporate overhead continues to weigh heavily on consolidated GAAP operating profitability, preventing high gross margins from translating into peer-leading net margins.
Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố
01
Chỉ số:
Clear Aligner shipment volume growth
Hiện tạiDecelerating to modest low single digits following post-pandemic normalization.
Vì sao quan trọng
Drives core segment revenue and establishes whether adult patient demand is stabilizing or deteriorating across major markets.
Capital allocation prioritizes share repurchases and internal reinvestment over dividends, with zero dividend distributions paid. In FY2025, Align deployed $465.94M toward share repurchases, reducing diluted share count from 76,568,000 in FY2023 to 72,588,000 in FY2025. Total debt stands at a modest $114.45M, leaving a substantial position that provides balance sheet safety.
ROIC contracted from historical peaks above 20% to 10.39% in FY2025 as consolidated operating income fell from $976.40M in FY2021 to $545.76M in FY2025 due to unallocated corporate overhead and post-pandemic volume normalization.
ROIC of 10.39% operates near moderate cost of equity Ke of 10.67% and WACC of 10.60%, indicating that economic value creation is currently modest.
Gross margin remains structurally insulated well above healthcare medtech peers
FY2025 gross profit of $2,711.01M on $4,034.96M revenue yielded a 67.19% , exceeding the healthcare industry average of 54.00% and peer COO at 65.93%.
Doanh thu mới nhất4 T US$CAGR doanh thu +15,8%
Biên hoạt động13,5%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất490,8 Tr US$FY2025
Tiền mặt ròng996,4 Tr US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.31 thg 3, 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu1,1 NT US$Giá vốn doanh thu−298,8 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp757,4 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−603,4 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động154 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−45,7 T US$Lợi nhuận ròng108,3 T US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
1.056.192.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
298.762.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
757.430.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
603.417.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
154.013.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-45.719.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
108.294.000.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản6,2 T US$Tiền mặt1,1 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn2,6 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả2,2 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn1,9 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu4 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
6.233.693.000 US$
Tiền mặt
1.094.908.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
2.616.562.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
2.184.546.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
1.920.015.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
4.049.147.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng410,4 Tr US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+237,4 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+185,9 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−240,4 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động593,2 Tr US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ1 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+593,2 Tr US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−112,4 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−464,6 Tr US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá+35 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ1,1 T US$
593,2 Tr US$ − 102,4 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 490,8 Tr US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
410.351.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
833.657.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
237.436.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
185.870.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
593.223.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
240.434.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
1.673.211.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
1.044.963.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
35.025.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
112.445.000 US$
Capex
102.445.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
10.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
464.580.000 US$
Mua lại cổ phiếu
465.939.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
1.096.186.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-112.445.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-464.580.000 US$
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
4 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng
Clear Aligner3,2 T US$80,4%+0,5% so với cùng kỳ
Systems And Services789,6 Tr US$19,6%+2,7% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-27 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Clear Aligner
3,2 T US$
80,4%
0,5%
Systems And Services
789,6 Tr US$
19,6%
2,7%
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
4 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
United States1,7 T US$41,2%−2% so với cùng kỳ
Other International1,5 T US$36%+10,1% so với cùng kỳ
Switzerland920,6 Tr US$22,8%−6,4% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-27 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
United States
1,7 T US$
41,2%
-2%
Other International
1,5 T US$
36%
10,1%
Switzerland
920,6 Tr US$
22,8%
-6,4%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-09-20.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
1,1 T US$
272,9 Tr US$
189,7 Tr US$
247,7 Tr US$
177,1 Tr US$
70,6 Tr US$
24 Tr US$
54,1 Tr US$
96,2 Tr US$
0 US$
—
73 Tr US$
-95,5 Tr US$
—
393 Tr US$
640,3 Tr US$
—
23,1%
—
—
—
2017-12-31
1,5 T US$
391,4 Tr US$
231,4 Tr US$
438,5 Tr US$
242,8 Tr US$
195,7 Tr US$
37,7 Tr US$
58,9 Tr US$
103,8 Tr US$
0 US$
—
-251,5 Tr US$
-135,5 Tr US$
393 Tr US$
450,1 Tr US$
721,5 Tr US$
—
24,0%
—
—
—
2018-12-31
2 T US$
521,3 Tr US$
400,2 Tr US$
554,7 Tr US$
331,4 Tr US$
223,3 Tr US$
54,7 Tr US$
70,8 Tr US$
300 Tr US$
—
—
6,9 Tr US$
-369,4 Tr US$
450,1 Tr US$
637,6 Tr US$
735,4 Tr US$
—
23,7%
—
—
—
2019-12-31
2,4 T US$
593,5 Tr US$
442,8 Tr US$
747,3 Tr US$
597,6 Tr US$
149,7 Tr US$
79 Tr US$
88,2 Tr US$
400 Tr US$
—
—
-350,4 Tr US$
-485,5 Tr US$
637,6 Tr US$
551,1 Tr US$
868,6 Tr US$
59,2 Tr US$
22,5%
—
9,7%
—
2020-12-31
2,5 T US$
480,7 Tr US$
1,8 T US$
662,2 Tr US$
507,3 Tr US$
154,9 Tr US$
93,5 Tr US$
98,4 Tr US$
0 US$
—
—
-231,5 Tr US$
-30,8 Tr US$
551,1 Tr US$
961,5 Tr US$
960,8 Tr US$
86,2 Tr US$
15,7%
—
7,6%
—
2021-12-31
4 T US$
1,1 T US$
772 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
771,4 Tr US$
401,1 Tr US$
108,7 Tr US$
114,3 Tr US$
375 Tr US$
—
0 US$
-563,4 Tr US$
-458,3 Tr US$
961,5 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
1,2 T US$
125,4 Tr US$
24,7%
—
8,0%
—
2022-12-31
3,7 T US$
779,8 Tr US$
361,6 Tr US$
568,7 Tr US$
276,8 Tr US$
291,9 Tr US$
125,8 Tr US$
133,4 Tr US$
435 Tr US$
—
—
-213,3 Tr US$
-501,7 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
942,4 Tr US$
999,6 Tr US$
126,9 Tr US$
17,2%
—
10,5%
—
2023-12-31
3,9 T US$
643,3 Tr US$
445,1 Tr US$
785,8 Tr US$
608,1 Tr US$
177,7 Tr US$
142,4 Tr US$
154 Tr US$
592,4 Tr US$
—
—
-195,9 Tr US$
-598,3 Tr US$
942,4 Tr US$
938,5 Tr US$
972,7 Tr US$
126,6 Tr US$
16,7%
—
10,3%
—
2024-12-31
4 T US$
816,8 Tr US$
421,4 Tr US$
738,2 Tr US$
622,7 Tr US$
115,6 Tr US$
145 Tr US$
173,7 Tr US$
352,9 Tr US$
—
—
-254,9 Tr US$
-355,7 Tr US$
938,5 Tr US$
1 T US$
1 T US$
119,3 Tr US$
15,2%
—
10,5%
—
2025-12-31
4 T US$
765,9 Tr US$
410,4 Tr US$
593,2 Tr US$
490,8 Tr US$
102,4 Tr US$
237,4 Tr US$
185,9 Tr US$
465,9 Tr US$
—
—
-112,4 Tr US$
-464,6 Tr US$
1 T US$
1,1 T US$
1,1 T US$
114,4 Tr US$
13,5%
—
10,0%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Align Technology Inc.ALGN
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý121,31 US$Report-date price147,61 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư55 / 100
The Cooper Companies, Inc.COO
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý78,48 US$Report-date price55,29 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư62 / 100
DaVita Inc.DVA
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý386,49 US$Report-date price183,86 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư66 / 100
Align Technology Inc.ALGN
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý121,31 US$Report-date price147,61 US$
Align Technology Inc. (ALGN) trades at 11.6x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.0x. Its EV/EBITDA of 10.3x compares with a peer median of 15.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: The Cooper Companies Inc., Bio-Techne Corporation, DaVita Inc. and Solventum Corporation, as of 2026-09-20.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Contraction
Industry capital intensity benchmarks indicate a capex-to-revenue ratio of 4.5% and capex-to-depreciation of 0.8x. Align's FY2025 capex of $102.45M on $4,034.96M revenue represents a 2.54% capex-to-revenue ratio, and capex-to-depreciation stands at 0.43x against depreciation of $237.44M, down significantly from FY2021 capex of $401.10M. Because capacity, supply, lead-time, and customer-concentration evidence is unavailable, the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.6
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Adolescent and teen orthodontic adoption accelerates, digital scanner replacement cycles shorten with next-generation imaging platforms, and international penetration expands across underpenetrated dental markets.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
Persistent consumer inflation and high interest rates lead adult patients to defer elective out-of-pocket dental procedures, while corporate overhead remains rigid and low-cost aligners pressure non-comprehensive case pricing.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Digitization of Orthodontic and Restorative Dental Practices
positive
Transition from traditional physical impressions to intraoral scanning drives recurring clear aligner submissions and practice integration.
Direct-to-Consumer and Low-Cost Laboratory Aligner Proliferation
negative
Commoditizes mild malocclusion cases and limits average selling price expansion across non-comprehensive treatments.
Expansion of Clear Aligner Eligibility to Teens and Growing Children
positive
Định vị
Align maintains dominant market share in orthodontic clear aligners and intraoral digital scanners, positioning the firm to capture long-term digital dentistry adoption while remaining vulnerable in the near term to discretionary spending contractions.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
Under our Reduce rating, establishing new long exposure is not warranted because shares trade at $147.61, representing a 21.68% premium over Fair value of $121.31. Investors holding existing positions should underweight or trim holdings.4
Rủi ro
Risk management for Align Technology requires rigorous defense against consumer discretionary cyclicality and corporate operating deleverage. With shares trading at $147.61 versus our Fair value of $121.31, asymmetric downside risk dominates. Portfolios should maintain an underweight stance, utilize any valuation surges to trim holdings, and enforce strict quarterly checkpoints on case volumes and operating margins.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Below $103.08
Re-evaluate valuation discount
A pullback to the discounted earnings valuation anchor of $103.08 would provide an adequate margin of safety to re-assess risk-reward dynamics.
Below $80.03
Consider initial accumulation if fundamentals stabilize
Approaching the multi-stage moat fade anchor of $80.03 would price in severe margin degradation, creating an attractive entry point if clear aligner volume growth re-accelerates.
Shares trade at $147.61, representing an 17.82% premium to our Fair value of $121.31 and offering zero margin of safety against earnings deceleration.4
Growth Investor
Avoid
Revenue growth has decelerated to low single digits (3.26% consensus for FY2026), while adult orthodontic procedure deferral limits near-term multiple expansion.1
Current Position Holders
Hold
Investors with existing positions should hold only with a strict 6% trailing stop while systematically trimming into price strength toward $155.00.
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Giảm
We recommend reducing exposure to Align Technology as the report-date price of $147.61 trades at a 21.7% premium to our Fair value of $121.31. While the core Invisalign ecosystem and doctor switching costs remain intact, post-pandemic revenue growth deceleration to 3-4% and substantial unallocated corporate overhead constrain earnings expansion.7
Investors should capitalize on trading strength to trim existing positions and redeploy capital into opportunities with a stronger margin of safety. New purchases should be deferred until valuation compresses toward intrinsic value or until operating leverage sustainably re-emerges.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-12-31 · Published 2026-07-29 · cited for 1 figuresCited in Quan điểm nhà đầu tư
Market and peer researchData as of 2026-09-20 · Published 2026-09-20 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figuresCited in Lợi thế cạnh tranh, Lịch sử tài chính
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Margin Degradation from Pricing Pressure and Rigid SG&A
Consolidated operating margin fell to 13.53% in FY2025 from 15.19% in 2024 and 16.66% in 2023. Continued ASP erosion in mild malocclusion combined with -$820M in corporate consolidation adjustments pushes operating margin below 11.0%, resulting in an estimated -18.0% fair value impact.6
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 18 months
Required Cost of Capital Surge from Beta Re-Rating
Moderate Ke is 10.67% using adjusted beta of 1.385, but raw beta is 1.7463. If the market prices Align at strict raw beta Ke of 12.17% plus credit spread widening, Ke exceeds 12.67%, driving a -17.5% fair value contraction.2
FV impact
-10.8%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 12 months
Demonstrates failure of manufacturing automation to offset unallocated corporate SG&A and pricing erosion.
Excessive share-based compensation dilutes equity value and signals unsustainable non-cash compensation drag on economic owner earnings.
Hiện tại:31.33% (FY2025 reported)
Cảnh báo nếu> 35.0%
An international installation base across Europe and Asia-Pacific generated $2,373.78M in FY2025 international revenue, reinforcing scanner network adoption and clinical case data feedback loops.
Moderate
high
6-18 months
Expanding teen segment penetration, insurance reimbursement integration, and flexible practice financing options.
Foreign exchange volatility and regional macroeconomic deceleration across European and emerging dental markets
medium
Ongoing
Natural geographic expense hedging through regional manufacturing hubs in Poland and Mexico.7
Stabilization of discretionary healthcare consumer spending across North America and Europe
The Bull scenario reflects accelerated adolescent and teen clear aligner penetration, rapid adoption of the latest iTero intraoral scanner platform, and faster international expansion across underpenetrated emerging dental markets. Fixed-cost absorption in manufacturing hubs accelerates operating margin expansion toward historical peaks. This path would be disconfirmed if adult case deferrals spread to the teen cohort or if scanner placement cadence decelerates. With an assessed probability of 20.0%, this outcome supports a target of $121.34, offering a return of -17.8% from $147.61 (as of 2026-09-18).
Vì sao quan trọng
Reveals whether manufacturing automation and regional footprint efficiency are offsetting unallocated corporate overhead and price competition.
Hiện tạiAccounts for the majority of consolidated revenue but remains vulnerable to regional macroeconomic conditions.
Vì sao quan trọng
Determines whether underpenetrated dental markets in Europe and Asia-Pacific can sustain global volume expansion despite foreign exchange translation friction.
04
Chỉ số:
iTero intraoral scanner installation cadence
Hiện tạiDelivers high segment operating profitability while experiencing extended capital replacement cycles among dental practices.
Vì sao quan trọng
Expands digital integration and clinical case submissions from general dentists and orthodontists.
Align retains pricing power and manufacturing scale in comprehensive cases, preventing competitive gross margin erosion.
Unallocated corporate expenses impose a severe drag on consolidated operating profitability
While Clear Aligner operating income reached $1,034.79M (31.88% margin) and Systems & Services reached $306.09M (38.77% margin), consolidated operating income was only $545.76M (13.53% margin) due to corporate consolidation expenses of -$795.13M, projected at -$820.00M in FY2026.
Operating margins will remain constrained near 13.5% to 14.4% unless corporate overhead is restructured.
