Khi được bạn cho phép, chúng tôi sử dụng phân tích giới hạn, chú trọng quyền riêng tư để hiểu hành trình nghiên cứu nào hiệu quả. Chúng tôi không dùng trình theo dõi quảng cáo hoặc ghi lại phiên. Bạn có thể thay đổi lựa chọn này trong Tùy chọn. Đọc Chính sách quyền riêng tư.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
CMCSA — frequently asked questions
Is Comcast Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, CMCSA looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 24,8 USD versus our fair value of 121 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 154 USD. That implies roughly 386.9% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives CMCSA a fair value of 121 USD and a potential value of 154 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Comcast Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy CMCSA now?
Our latest published rating for CMCSA, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Strong Buy. Comcast Corporation looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 24,8 USD versus fair value of 121 USD; potential value is 154 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for CMCSA?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Comcast Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is CMCSA's rating?
Our latest published rating for CMCSA, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 121 USD, the potential value of 154 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (24,8 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyStrong Buy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$24.80
Giá trị hợp lý
$120.75
Giá trị tiềm năng
$153.58
Tính đến
Ngày báo giá chưa được ghi nhận
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Bull: Broadband competitive pressures ease entirely while theme parks drive high-margin growth, restoring legacy market premiums to the equity.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
The market views Comcast as functionally distressed, pricing it near 24.80 against an internal valuation cross-checks of 32.74.
Comcast is currently priced as a functionally distressed asset headed for terminal runoff. However, beneath the $98.9B debt encumbrance and linear TV secular headwinds lies a highly cash-generative capitalized network. Our intrinsic analysis identifies a massive dislocation between the $24.80 market price and the underlying cash generation capacity of its broadband and theme park segments.
Comcast is currently priced as a functionally distressed asset headed for terminal runoff. However, beneath the $98.9B debt encumbrance and linear TV secular headwinds lies a highly cash-generative capitalized network. Our intrinsic analysis identifies a massive dislocation between the $24.80 market price and the underlying cash generation capacity of its broadband and theme park segments.
Incumbent broadband network infrastructure with
Incumbent broadband network infrastructure with high replacement cost
Universal Theme Parks physical footprint
Universal Theme Parks physical footprint and IP integration
Bull thesis
The market views Comcast as functionally distressed, pricing it near 24.80 against an internal valuation cross-checks of 32.74.
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Strong Buy. The 269% premium to private external expectations highlights a profound contrarian opportunity. While turnaround risks and debt loads are material, the market's expectation of permanent impairment ignores a highly defensible $25B baseline trajectory.
Comcast Corporation operates as a media and technology company worldwide. The company operates through Residential Connectivity & Platforms, Business Services Connectivity, Media, Studios, and Theme Parks segments. Its Residential Connectivity & Platforms segment provides residential broadband and wireless connectivity services, residential and business video services, sky-branded entertainment television networks, and advertising. The Business Services Connectivity segment offers connectivity services for small business locations, which include broadband, wireline voice, and wireless services; and ethernet network services for medium-sized customers and larger enterprises. Its Media segment operates NBCUniversal's national and regional cable networks; the NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks and owned local broadcast television stations; and Peacock, a direct-to-consumer streaming services. The company also operates international television networks comprising the Sky Sports networks, as well as other digital properties. Its Studios segment operates NBCUniversal and Sky film and television studio production and distribution operations. The Theme Parks segment operates Universal theme parks in Orlando, Florida; Hollywood, California; Osaka, Japan; and Beijing, China. It also offers a consolidated streaming platforms under the Philadelphia Flyers and the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and Xumo. Comcast Corporation was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
A sustained macroeconomic downturn coupled with accelerated cord-cutting tests Comcast's highly leveraged balance sheet ($98.9B total debt).
WACC structurally higher than modeled 5.65% due to debt risks.
Market skepticism proves partially correct as FWA competition and linear runoff compress margins, though robust baseline cash flows prevent a complete wipeout.
Operating profit contraction diminishes discretionary free cash flows required to service massive corporate debt, limiting capital allocation flexibility and endangering share repurchases.
Hiện tại:Operating income was $20.67B for the period ended 2025-12-31
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
Incumbent broadband network infrastructure with high replacement cost
Universal Theme Parks physical footprint and IP integration
NBCUniversal proprietary content library and studio production
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Incumbent broadband network infrastructure with high replacement cost — Incumbent broadband network infrastructure with high replacement costModerate
02Universal Theme Parks physical footprint and IP integration — Universal Theme Parks physical footprint and IP integrationModerate
03NBCUniversal proprietary content library and studio production — NBCUniversal proprietary content library and studio productionModerate
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($120.75). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Doanh thu mới nhất123,7 TCAGR doanh thu +0,6%
Biên hoạt động16,7%5 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất19,2 TFY2025
Nợ ròng89,5 TFY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu123,7 TGiá vốn doanh thu−35 TLợi nhuận gộp88,8 TChi phí hoạt động−68,1 TLợi nhuận hoạt động20,7 TCác khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−672 TrLợi nhuận ròng20 T
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
123.707.000.000
Giá vốn doanh thu
34.951.000.000
Lợi nhuận gộp
88.756.000.000
Chi phí hoạt động
68.086.000.000
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
20.670.000.000
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-672.000.000
Lợi nhuận ròng
19.998.000.000
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản272,6 TTiền mặt9,5 TTài sản ngắn hạn29,6 TTổng nợ phải trả175,3 TNợ ngắn hạn33,5 TVốn chủ sở hữu96,9 T
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
272.631.000.000
Tiền mặt
9.481.000.000
Tài sản ngắn hạn
29.567.000.000
Tổng nợ phải trả
175.255.000.000
Nợ ngắn hạn
33.524.000.000
Vốn chủ sở hữu
96.903.000.000
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-05-20.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2021-12-31
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4,7 T
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2022-12-31
121,4 T
27 T
5,4 T
26,4 T
12,6 T
13,8 T
13,8 T
1,3 T
13,3 T
4,7 T
1,1 T
—
—
—
—
4,7 T
100 T
18,6%
—
5,2%
—
2023-12-31
121,6 T
38,9 T
15,4 T
28,5 T
13 T
15,5 T
14,3 T
1,2 T
11,3 T
4,8 T
-3,8 T
—
—
—
—
6,2 T
97,1 T
19,2%
—
5,9%
—
2024-12-31
123,7 T
37,6 T
16,2 T
27,7 T
12,5 T
15,1 T
14,8 T
1,3 T
9,1 T
4,8 T
2,7 T
—
—
—
—
7,3 T
99,1 T
18,8%
—
6,6%
—
2025-12-31
123,7 T
46,4 T
20 T
33,6 T
19,2 T
14,4 T
16,2 T
1,3 T
—
4,9 T
-2,2 T
—
—
—
—
9,5 T
98,9 T
16,7%
—
5,5%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Comcast CorporationCMCSA
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý120,75 US$Report-date price24,8 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư63 / 100
T-Mobile US, Inc.TMUS
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý253,05 US$Report-date price181,69 US$
CMCSA trades at 6.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 9.8x; EV/EBITDA of 4.9x against a peer median of 7.7x; 6 peers.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Intensive. Requires sustained reinvestment at ~11.5% of revenue to maintain network parity and park attractions, restricting deleveraging speed.
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Broadband ARPU expansion and direct-to-consumer (Peacock) scaling to sustainable profitability offset legacy decay.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
Secular runoff in linear television combined with peak cyclicality in theme park attendance.
Định vị
Intensive. Requires sustained reinvestment at ~11.5% of revenue to maintain network parity and park attractions, restricting deleveraging speed.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Rủi ro
Exit if WACC structurally reprices above 8% due to debt refinancing failures, or if FCF falls materially short of the $25B baseline trajectory.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Current / pullbacks
Accumulate at current highly dislocated levels ($24.80) where the market is implicitly pricing in terminal runoff.
Accumulate at current highly dislocated levels ($24.80) where the market is implicitly pricing in terminal runoff.
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Thesis break
Exit if WACC structurally reprices above 8% due to debt refinancing failures, or if FCF falls materially short of the $25B baseline trajectory.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Bull view
Buy
The market views Comcast as functionally distressed, pricing it near 24.80 against an internal valuation cross-checks of 32.74.
Base view
Buy
Our intrinsic DCF math models a resilient, going-concern entity capable of defending equity value through robust operating cash flows.
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Mua mạnh
Strong Buy. Despite severe secular headwinds and a heavy debt load, current pricing represents an extreme market dislocation, ignoring the sheer scale of intrinsic cash generation.
Downside case: The market views Comcast as functionally distressed, pricing it near 24.80 against an internal valuation cross-checks of 32.74.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Higher-for-longer interest rates force refinancing of the $98.9B debt load at punitive yields, overwhelming free cash flow generation.
FV impact
-55%
Trigger
24 to 36 months
Linear Runoff Acceleration
High
Legacy video and broadcast revenue declines accelerate beyond the modeled 1.6% contraction, dragging consolidated enterprise EBITDA down structurally.
FV impact
-25%
Trigger
Immediate
Cảnh báo nếuDeclines below $18.00B over any trailing twelve-month period
02
Network Capital Intensity Ratio
Elevated capital intensity to counter broadband competition consumes vital operating liquidity, reducing conversion from earnings to free cash flow and restricting shareholder payouts.
Hiện tại:11.5% of revenue historically as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếuExceeds 13.0% of total revenue for two consecutive fiscal quarters
Cash flow generation falling behind accounting net income indicates aggressive revenue accruals or heavy working capital drag, eroding underlying cash support for fixed financial obligations.
The enterprise successfully navigates turnaround headwinds. Resilient operating cash flow easily services debt obligations, forcing a radical upward re-rating from distressed levels.
02
Chỉ số:
Network Capital Intensity Ratio
Hiện tại11.5% of revenue historically as of 2026-05-20
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Exceeds 13.0% of total revenue for two consecutive fiscal quarters. Elevated capital intensity to counter broadband competition consumes vital operating liquidity, reducing conversion from earnings to free cash flow and restricting shareholder payouts.
Warning level: Drops below 1.25x over any trailing twelve-month period. Cash flow generation falling behind accounting net income indicates aggressive revenue accruals or heavy working capital drag, eroding underlying cash support for fixed financial obligations.
05
Chỉ số:
Direct-to-Consumer Segment Losses
Hiện tạiPeacock streaming losses ongoing as of 2026-05-20
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Fails to achieve breakeven within 24 months. Protracted digital streaming losses drain high-margin legacy cash flows, impairing consolidated operating margins while broadband subscriber growth faces structural headwinds.
AT&T Inc.T
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý28,1 US$Report-date price25,45 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư59 / 100
Charter Communications, Inc.CHTR
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý420,15 US$Report-date price106,86 US$
