Khi được bạn cho phép, chúng tôi sử dụng phân tích giới hạn, chú trọng quyền riêng tư để hiểu hành trình nghiên cứu nào hiệu quả. Chúng tôi không dùng trình theo dõi quảng cáo hoặc ghi lại phiên. Bạn có thể thay đổi lựa chọn này trong Tùy chọn. Đọc Chính sách quyền riêng tư.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
BMY — frequently asked questions
Is Bristol-Myers Squibb Company overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-25, BMY looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 61,9 USD versus our fair value of 42,5 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 52,7 USD. That implies roughly 31.4% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-25, gives BMY a fair value of 42,5 USD and a potential value of 52,7 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy BMY now?
Our latest published rating for BMY, analyzed 2026-09-25, is Sell. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 61,9 USD versus fair value of 42,5 USD; potential value is 52,7 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for BMY?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-25 documents Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is BMY's rating?
Our latest published rating for BMY, analyzed 2026-09-25, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 42,5 USD, the potential value of 52,7 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (61,9 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâySell
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$61.94
Giá trị hợp lý
$42.47
Giá trị tiềm năng
$52.68
Tính đến
2026-09-25
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Commercial outperformance of newly launched therapies—with Qvantig achieving its 30% to 40% share target and Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl expanding globally—coupled with positive Phase 3 data for milvexian demonstrating superior safety over Eliquis and more than 10 new medicine launches by 2030, which could stabilize top-line revenue and support our Potential value of USD 52.68.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
European patent expiry on Eliquis in mid-Q4 2026 accelerating generic erosion, driving FY2027 consolidated revenue below USD 46.0 billion.
We rate Bristol-Myers Squibb a Sell with a Fair value of USD 42.47, representing 31.4% downside from the USD 61.94 price on September 25, 2026, as impending patent losses on core blockbusters outweigh commercial growth portfolio contributions.4
The house rating is Sell. For an ordinary investor, this means capital is at elevated risk of erosion, and positions should be sold or avoided because the company's earnings power is poised to contract faster than the market price reflects.4
On September 25, 2026, the shares traded at USD 61.94. This price sits 45.8% above our Fair value of USD 42.47 and 17.6% above our Potential value of USD 52.68. Even under favorable pipeline delivery, the share price on that date exceeded the high end of our valuation range.
The primary risk that reinforces our view is an accelerating revenue cliff as Eliquis faces European patent expiration in mid-Q4 2026, causing a confirmed USD 1.5 billion to USD 2.0 billion top-line step-down in FY2027. If replacement therapies fail to cover this gap and consolidated revenue drops below USD 46.0 billion in FY2027, operating cash flow would fall, leaving the company vulnerable as it services USD 45.05 billion in total debt.1,4,5
The business could outperform if newly commercialized therapies—such as Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl—accelerate adoption while Qvantig expands toward its 30% to 40% market share target. If Phase 3 readouts for milvexian demonstrate superior bleeding safety and more than 10 new medicines launch by 2030, revenue growth would stabilize, potentially lifting value per share toward our Potential value of USD 52.68.5
Expansion of Commercial Growth Portfolio
Accelerating adoption of Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl, combined with Qvantig reaching USD 1 billion run-rate and aiming for 30% to 40% market share, could cushion top-line erosion.5
Late-Stage Pipeline Delivery
Successful commercialization of more than 10 new medicines by 2030 and unconstrained launch of milvexian could restore long-term growth and support Potential value of USD 52.68.5
Generating USD 14.16 billion in FY2025 operating cash flow provides near-term liquidity to service upcoming debt maturities while funding clinical research.7
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Sell, because impending patent cliffs on Eliquis and Opdivo will contract earnings and cash flow faster than newly commercialized pipeline assets can replace them.1,5
Tổng quan công ty
Such extensions are granted on a country-by-country basis. Level 3 unobservable inputs are used when little or no market data is available.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
Under an acute downside scenario, consolidated revenue declines past the guided $1.5B to $2.0B European Eliquis step down in FY2027 toward consensus low of $45.89B. With $45.05B in total debt, $23.42B in current liabilities, and a pre-tax cost of debt of 5.93%, refinancing $8.84B in upcoming five-year debt maturities amidst contracting operating cash flow reduces free cash conversion well below FY2025's $12,845M. In parallel, clinical development delays, such as the slower event recruitment observed in Cobenfy ADEPT-1, prevent new product commercialization from offsetting loss of exclusivity on Revlimid, Eliquis, and Opdivo, driving terminal valuation multiples down to 8.0x and reducing fair value toward the downside anchor of $27.99.
Terminal valuation multiples de-rate toward the lower band of mature biopharma peers
A downside case exists where accelerated generic substitution across core biopharmaceutical franchises severely outpaces new product commercialization, compounded by clinical trial delays and elevated debt refinancing costs. Under this trajectory, contracting operating cash flow and high debt service reduce free cash conversion, compressing valuation multiples toward the low-growth pharmaceutical peer floor. Early qualitative disconfirmation signals include top-line contraction breaching guided thresholds and clinical recruitment bottlenecks in major late-stage programs.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Accelerated generic erosion and European LOE on Eliquis drives consolidated top-line revenue well below base case expectations
CCO Adam Lenkowsky confirmed an anticipated $1.5B to $2.0B revenue step down in FY2027 following Eliquis patent expiry in Europe in mid-Q4 2026. FY2027 consensus revenue is $48.21B with analyst low at $45.89B. If accelerated generic substitution drives revenue below the trigger threshold of $46.0B within 15 months, the fair value impact is estimated at -15.8%.1,5
FV impact
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Eliquis European patent expiry in mid-Q4 2026 triggers a $1.5B to $2.0B revenue step down in FY2027 that new pipeline launches fail to compensate for.
Hiện tại:$48,194M in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuConsolidated revenue falls below $46.0B in FY2027
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
Bristol-Myers Squibb possesses a narrow economic moat grounded in patented drug formulations, regulatory marketing exclusivities, and high switching costs across oncology and specialty biopharmaceutical care. In FY2025, the company delivered $13,724M in operating income on $48,194M of revenue, generating returns on invested capital of 16.02% that exceed its moderate cost of equity of 7.43% and WACC of 6.80%.
However, this moat is inherently time-limited and narrowing due to the finite statutory duration of pharmaceutical patents. Core blockbuster therapies that have anchored the company's financial profile—notably Revlimid, Eliquis, and Opdivo—are entering their loss-of-exclusivity windows. Eliquis faces patent expiry in Europe in mid-Q4 2026 with an anticipated $1.5B to $2.0B revenue step down in FY2027, while Opdivo approaches loss of exclusivity later in the decade. The speed at which generic alternatives erode branded volume once patent protection expires prevents the assignment of a wide economic moat rating.
To defend its competitive position, management is advancing a commercial growth portfolio including Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl, while targeting more than 10 new medicine introductions by 2030 and over 30 life cycle opportunities. While early commercial traction is evidenced by Qvantig annualizing over $1B, the multi-year lag between clinical development and commercial scale leaves economic profits exposed to compression over the next five years, justifying a 5-year stage I and 5-year stage II competitive fade structure.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
BMY generates returns on invested capital of 16.02% that exceed its moderate cost of equity of 7.43% and computed WACC of 6.80%. Operating income reached $13,724M on revenue of $48,194M in FY2025, generating $12,845M in free cash flow. However, economic profit spreads will compress as patent expiries reduce operating margins from 28.5% toward 15.0% in the house terminal forecast schedule.2,4,6,7
6.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Patented Biopharmaceutical Formulations and Regulatory Exclusivity — Patented molecular entities and regulatory exclusivity grant proprietary pricing power and commercial exclusivity across core therapies like Eliquis, Opdivo, Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl, supported by over 10 new medicine candidates and over 30 life cycle opportunities.Moderate
02High Physician and Patient Switching Costs in Oncology and Specialty Therapeutics — In oncology and specialized cardiovascular conditions, physicians hesitate to switch stabilized patients off established regimens like Opdivo and Eliquis due to severe clinical risks and unfamiliarity with alternative titration profiles, sustaining therapy adherence.Moderate
03
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Loss of exclusivity and generic substitution on Eliquis
high
Mid-Q4 2026 through FY2027
Scaling new commercial portfolio (Camzyos, Sotyktu, Reblozyl) and advancing next-generation Factor XIa inhibitor milvexian in partnership with Pfizer.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($42.47). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Operating cash flows cover scheduled debt maturities while limiting discretionary capital return
The Base scenario represents the central projection with an assessed probability of 50.0%, establishing Fair value at $42.47, which represents an expected return of -31.4% relative to the share price of $61.94. This projection reflects steady commercial adoption across the growth portfolio alongside anticipated top-line contraction in FY2027 following European patent expirations on Eliquis. Operating margins compress moderately as loss of exclusivity impacts pricing, while robust operating cash flows continue to cover scheduled debt maturities and the dividend. Disconfirmation would occur if top-line revenue contracts faster than guided step-down levels or if pipeline programs encounter unexpected clinical or regulatory delays.
Accelerated commercial adoption of newly launched specialty biopharmaceuticals
Milestone Phase Three readouts for late-stage pipeline therapies proceed without delay
Operating margins stabilize near historical highs with disciplined operational spending
§7 Cây quyết định lợi nhuậnEN
Vượt
Upgrade the rating; Re-examine outer-year revenue contraction assumptions, verify whether new launch volume sustains gross margins, and assess whether balance sheet debt repayment accelerates.
Kích hoạt: Consolidated revenue and adjusted diluted earnings per share exceed consensus expectations, driven by higher than guided Eliquis demand and accelerating volume uptake across the commercial specialty portfolio.
Material top-line outperformance indicates that the commercial growth portfolio is absorbing generic erosion faster than anticipated, providing intermediate operating cash flow stabilization.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Sell; Continue monitoring European patent expiry dynamics, quarterly cash conversion against debt service requirements, and pivotal trial enrollment progress across the late-stage pipeline.
Kích hoạt: Results meet consensus expectations, with Eliquis tracking within management full-year growth guidance and legacy generic erosion continuing at projected rates.
Operating performance in line with consensus confirms the house baseline expectation that multi-blockbuster patent expirations will compress medium-term earnings power while debt service absorbs discretionary cash flow.
Hụt
Maintain Sell; Stress test outer-year margin assumptions, evaluate potential credit rating downgrade risks, and reassess long-term dividend coverage.
Kích hoạt: Consolidated revenue falls short of consensus expectations, driven by sharper than anticipated Eliquis step downs or slowing growth across newly launched specialty medicines.
Top-line underperformance confirms that generic competition is eroding the core franchise faster than replacement assets can scale, threatening operating margins and cash flow conversion.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Earnings quality is supported by operating cash flow that comfortably exceeds reported GAAP net income, driven by steady non-cash depreciation and amortization add-backs and modest manufacturing capital requirements. Working capital dynamics remain tied to large wholesale distributor collection schedules, where inventory adjustments during branded-to-generic product transitions represent the primary cash conversion risk. Gross margin durability reflects patent-protected specialty pricing that remains vulnerable to future patent expirations and mandatory statutory price negotiations.
Hiện tạiTracking within management full-year growth guidance following recent upward revisions, with European patent expiry approaching in mid-fourth quarter.
Vì sao quan trọng
Eliquis represents the largest individual revenue contributor; any deceleration in baseline demand or accelerated generic erosion in Europe impairs top-line cash generation and accelerates operating margin contraction.
In FY2025, BMY demonstrated robust cash generation with operating cash flow of $14,156M and free cash flow of $12,845M, reflecting low manufacturing capital intensity with capital expenditures of only $1,311M. This yielded an operating cash flow conversion of 200.7% relative to net income of $7,054M, supported by $4,011M in depreciation and amortization. However, working capital settlement across top distributors McKesson (36%), Cencora (29%), and Cardinal Health (22%) and European patent cliff step-downs of $1.5B to $2.0B starting in late 2026 will tighten free cash flow headroom over the medium term.5,6,7,8
Phân bổ vốn
Capital allocation is constrained by $45,053M in total debt, $23,417M in current liabilities, and $8.84B in scheduled debt maturities over the next 5 years against a pre-tax of 5.93%. Annual dividend commitments of $2.52 per share absorb approximately $5.15B across 2,042,715,000 . Management has confirmed no compulsion to chase large external M&A deals, appropriately prioritizing balance sheet deleveraging, dividend defense, and targeted internal pipeline advancement (>10 new medicines by 2030).
The positive spread between ROIC and cost of capital is driven by legacy blockbuster cash flows, with FY2025 operating income at $13,724M. However, as generic competition erodes Eliquis and Opdivo revenues and consensus projects FY2027 top-line contraction to $48,208M, operating margins are projected to decline, compressing the economic profit spread over the next 3 to 5 years.
BMY's current ROIC of 16.02% comfortably clears its computed WACC of 6.80% and moderate Ke of 7.43%, generating positive economic value spread of approximately 9.22 percentage points.
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.30 thg 6, 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu13 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−3,7 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp9,2 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−5,2 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động4,1 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−769 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng3,3 T US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
12.973.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
3.726.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
9.247.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
5.161.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
4.086.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-769.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
3.317.000.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản90 T US$Tiền mặt10,2 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn29,4 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả71,5 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn23,4 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu18,5 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
90.038.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt
10.209.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
29.390.000.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
71.533.000.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
23.417.000.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
18.506.000.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng7,1 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+4 T US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+553 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác+2,5 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động14,2 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ10,3 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+14,2 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−4,1 T US$Dòng tiền tài chính−10,3 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá+195 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ10,2 T US$
14,2 T US$ − 1,3 T US$Dòng tiền tự do 12,8 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
7.054.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
14.156.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
4.011.000.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
553.000.000 US$
Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác
2.538.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
14.156.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
24.698.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
10.347.000.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
195.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
4.132.000.000 US$
Capex
1.311.000.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
2.821.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
10.348.000.000 US$
Cổ tức đã trả
5.045.000.000 US$
Hoàn trả nợ ròng
5.175.000.000 US$
Hoạt động tài chính khác
128.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
10.218.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-4.132.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-10.348.000.000 US$
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
48,2 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
United States33,3 T US$69,1%−2,4% so với cùng kỳ
Non Us13,8 T US$28,7%+4,8% so với cùng kỳ
Other Region1,1 T US$2,3%+9,1% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-11 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
United States
33,3 T US$
69,1%
-2,4%
Non Us
13,8 T US$
28,7%
4,8%
Other Region
1,1 T US$
2,3%
9,1%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-09-25.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
19,4 T US$
6,5 T US$
4,5 T US$
3,1 T US$
1,8 T US$
1,2 T US$
382 Tr US$
205 Tr US$
231 Tr US$
2,5 T US$
—
1,5 T US$
-2,7 T US$
—
4,2 T US$
6,4 T US$
7,2 T US$
26,7%
—
5,7%
—
2017-12-31
20,8 T US$
6,1 T US$
1 T US$
5,3 T US$
4,2 T US$
1,1 T US$
789 Tr US$
199 Tr US$
2,5 T US$
2,6 T US$
—
-66 Tr US$
-4,1 T US$
4,2 T US$
5,4 T US$
6,7 T US$
5,8 T US$
25,2%
—
6,0%
—
2018-12-31
22,6 T US$
6,8 T US$
4,9 T US$
7,1 T US$
6,1 T US$
951 Tr US$
637 Tr US$
221 Tr US$
320 Tr US$
2,6 T US$
—
-2 T US$
-3,5 T US$
5,4 T US$
6,9 T US$
9,2 T US$
5,6 T US$
28,3%
—
6,7%
—
2019-12-31
26,1 T US$
7,4 T US$
3,4 T US$
8,2 T US$
7,4 T US$
836 Tr US$
1,7 T US$
441 Tr US$
7,3 T US$
2,7 T US$
—
-9,9 T US$
7,6 T US$
6,9 T US$
12,8 T US$
33,5 T US$
24,4 T US$
24,6%
—
5,3%
—
2020-12-31
42,5 T US$
4,9 T US$
-9 T US$
14,1 T US$
13,3 T US$
753 Tr US$
10,4 T US$
779 Tr US$
1,5 T US$
4,1 T US$
—
-10,9 T US$
-1,2 T US$
12,8 T US$
15 T US$
16,5 T US$
50,3 T US$
10,6%
—
3,4%
—
2021-12-31
46,4 T US$
20,1 T US$
7 T US$
16,2 T US$
15,2 T US$
973 Tr US$
10,7 T US$
583 Tr US$
6,3 T US$
4,4 T US$
—
-538 Tr US$
-16,2 T US$
15 T US$
14,3 T US$
17,2 T US$
44,4 T US$
20,6%
—
3,9%
—
2022-12-31
46,2 T US$
19,2 T US$
6,3 T US$
13,1 T US$
11,9 T US$
1,1 T US$
10,3 T US$
457 Tr US$
8 T US$
4,6 T US$
-5,3 T US$
-1,1 T US$
-17 T US$
14,3 T US$
9,3 T US$
9,3 T US$
39 T US$
20,1%
—
6,1%
—
2023-12-31
45 T US$
19,4 T US$
8 T US$
13,9 T US$
12,7 T US$
1,2 T US$
9,8 T US$
518 Tr US$
5,2 T US$
4,7 T US$
456 Tr US$
-2,3 T US$
-9,4 T US$
9,3 T US$
11,5 T US$
12,3 T US$
39,5 T US$
18,8%
—
5,8%
—
2024-12-31
48,3 T US$
3,2 T US$
-8,9 T US$
15,2 T US$
13,9 T US$
1,2 T US$
9,6 T US$
507 Tr US$
0 US$
4,9 T US$
10,1 T US$
-21,4 T US$
5,1 T US$
11,5 T US$
10,3 T US$
10,9 T US$
49,4 T US$
20,0%
—
6,3%
—
2025-12-31
48,2 T US$
15,2 T US$
7,1 T US$
14,2 T US$
12,8 T US$
1,3 T US$
4 T US$
553 Tr US$
0 US$
5 T US$
-5,2 T US$
-4,1 T US$
-10,3 T US$
10,3 T US$
10,2 T US$
10,7 T US$
44,8 T US$
28,5%
—
5,5%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Bristol-Myers Squibb CompanyBMY
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý42,47 US$Report-date price61,94 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư61 / 100
Pfizer Inc.PFE
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý25,83 US$Report-date price28,67 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư58 / 100
Amgen Inc.AMGN
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý492,07 US$Report-date price437,23 US$
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) trades at 9.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 14.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 8.4x compares with a peer median of 13.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Pfizer Inc., Amgen Inc., Merck & Co. Inc. and Biogen Inc., as of 2026-09-25.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Contraction
Industry benchmark capex-to-revenue stands at 1.1% and capex-to-depreciation at 0.80x as of 2026-09-21. BMY's FY2025 capex of $1,311M on $48,194M revenue reflects low capital intensity (2.72%), with capex-to-depreciation of 0.33x against depreciation of $4,011M, below the industry benchmark of 0.80x. Because physical capacity utilization and supply lead-time metrics are not reported, this cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.7
Chu kỳ tăng giá
In an industry upcycle, clinical trial success across Phase 3 pipelines accelerates regulatory approvals, while demand for novel specialty therapeutics expands biopharma operating margins toward peer benchmarks such as AMGN's 35.55%.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
In a pharmaceutical downcycle, simultaneous patent expirations on major blockbusters trigger sharp generic revenue loss, while mandatory price negotiations and clinical trial recruitment delays compress industry operating margins below the sector benchmark of 29.50%.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Legislative and Regulatory Drug Price Negotiation
negative
US Medicare drug price negotiation frameworks mandate statutory price discounts on high-expenditure legacy drugs, eroding gross margins across US revenues ($33,279M in FY2025).
Expansion of Next-Generation Cardiovascular and Immunology Therapeutics
positive
Increasing prevalence of chronic cardiovascular disease and expanding addressable markets, such as the guided $8B-$10B IPF/PPF market by the mid-2030s, create multi-billion dollar replacement opportunities for milvexian and pipeline assets.
Định vị
BMY occupies a vulnerable cyclical position within large-cap biopharma as it enters the peak of its loss-of-exclusivity transition on Eliquis and Opdivo, lagging high-margin peers like AMGN (35.55% operating margin) and trading at a forward P/E of 9.36x as of 2026-09-25 versus peer AMGN's 16.78x.3,4
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
0%
Investors should eliminate or avoid long equity exposure in BMY until patent cliff erosion is fully discounted and pipeline replacement reaches commercial inflection.4
Rủi ro
Risk management focuses on capital preservation given the stock's significant overvaluation relative to intrinsic value (share price of $61.94 as of 2026-09-25 versus $42.47 Fair value). Upside risks that could temporarily squeeze short positions include unanticipated Eliquis patent litigation victories, faster-than-expected commercial adoption of Camzyos and Reblozyl, or breakthrough Phase 3 efficacy data for milvexian. Investors should avoid unhedged short positions given the dividend commitment ($2.52 per share) and instead execute capital reallocation away from BMY into biopharma peers with superior growth profiles and unencumbered patent horizons.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$42.47 (Fair value)
Monitor only / No purchase
Reaching Fair value would eliminate the current 45.8% market premium but does not offer an adequate margin of safety to offset imminent patent expirations on Eliquis and Opdivo.
Downgrade outer-year terminal growth assumptions and lower Fair value to reflect accelerated patent cliff revenue erosion and pipeline commercialization delays.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Value Investors
Avoid
Trading at USD 61.94 on September 25, 2026, the stock sits 45.8% above our Fair value of USD 42.47. A forward P/E of 9.36x appears optically inexpensive against peer medians but is a value trap given projected post-2026 earnings contraction.4
Growth Investors
Avoid
Consolidated revenue is projected to decline to USD 48.21 billion in FY2027 (-3.28%) due to the guided USD 1.5 billion to USD 2.0 billion European Eliquis step down, with negative EPS growth over the medium term.1,5
Income Investors
Avoid
While BMY pays a dividend of USD 2.52 per share, contracting free cash flow and USD 45.05 billion in total debt will limit dividend growth and create capital depreciation risk that exceeds cash yield.4
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Bán
We recommend selling or avoiding Bristol-Myers Squibb as the share price of USD 61.94 on September 25, 2026 significantly exceeds our Fair value of USD 42.47. Impending generic erosion on blockbuster therapies Eliquis and Opdivo will drive top-line revenue and net earnings contraction through FY2030.1,4,5
While management is advancing commercial therapies like Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl alongside a late-stage pipeline targeting over 10 new medicine launches by 2030, these assets cannot scale fast enough to bridge the patent cliff, leaving the stock vulnerable to multiple contraction and balance sheet debt refinancing pressures.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 15 months
Pipeline commercialization failures and clinical delays force market multiple de-rating towards low-growth pharma floor
CMO Cristian Massacesi confirmed clinical trial delays in Cobenfy ADEPT-1 due to slower event recruitment. Inability of pipeline assets to offset Revlimid, Eliquis, and Opdivo LOEs prompts a de-rating to the bear terminal multiple of 8.0x from 10.0x terminal P/E and forward P/E of 9.36x as of 2026-09-25. If the multiple de-rates below 8.0x within 24 months, the fair value impact is estimated at -20.0%.4,5
FV impact
-3.8%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 24 months
Debt refinancing spike amidst high debt load and contracting cash flow drives up cost of capital
BMY carries $45.05B in total debt, $23.42B in current liabilities, and $8.84B in scheduled debt maturities over 5 years with pre-tax cost of debt of 5.93%. If refinancing drives WACC above the trigger threshold of 8.0% within 36 months, the fair value impact is estimated at -18.3%.2,4,7
European patent expiration on Eliquis in mid-Q4 2026 and statutory single-payer pricing caps accelerate international revenue decline.
Hiện tại:$13,828M in FY2025 (28.7% of total revenue)
Cảnh báo nếuNon-US revenue drops below $12.0B in FY2027
Global Specialty Distribution and Logistics Infrastructure
— Entrenched distribution networks with major wholesalers including McKesson (36%), Cencora (29%), and Cardinal Health (22%), alongside $13,828M in non-US revenue infrastructure, ensure nationwide and international commercial reach.
Narrow
Opdivo patent cliff and biosimilar competition
high
24 to 48 months
Formulation innovation including subcutaneous delivery and advancing more than 10 late-stage pipeline therapies.5
Balance sheet deleveraging accelerates as cash flow covers debt maturities
Under the Bull scenario, which carries an assessed probability of 20.0%, intrinsic value reaches Potential value of $52.68, representing an upside return of -14.9% from the share price of $61.94. This path requires rapid commercial scaling across newly commercialized specialty biopharmaceuticals alongside positive pivotal Phase Three trial readouts for late-stage therapies such as milvexian. Full-year revenue performance must show immediate volume expansion that more than offsets generic erosion, while international commercial execution stabilizes realization. Disconfirmation would occur if clinical development schedules experience delays in patient enrollment or if competitive specialty therapies limit commercial penetration.
Hiện tạiAnnualized revenue is expanding with Qvantig securing double-digit market share toward its long-term commercial target.
Vì sao quan trọng
Scaling commercial sales of newly launched specialty products including Camzyos, Sotyktu, and Reblozyl reveals whether new volume can compensate for lost legacy blockbuster revenues.
03
Chỉ số:
Phase Three Clinical Trial Progression and Execution
Hiện tạiAdvancing more than ten late-stage assets toward pivotal readouts despite observed event recruitment delays in certain neurology trials.
Vì sao quan trọng
Pivotal study readouts and event recruitment timeliness dictate whether next-generation medicines like milvexian can secure regulatory approval to drive outer-year revenue recovery.
Hiện tạiFree cash flow comfortably covers current interest obligations and near-term scheduled debt maturities, though discretionary flexibility remains constrained.
Vì sao quan trọng
Substantial debt obligations require steady operating cash flow conversion; higher refinancing costs or cash flow erosion would impair balance sheet flexibility and threaten dividend stability.
05
Chỉ số:
Wholesale Distributor Working Capital and Receivables Stability
Hiện tạiWholesale logistics channels remain stable with timely receivables collection and standard inventory replenishment patterns.
Current cash flows provide near-term liquidity to service near-term debt, but the European Eliquis step down of $1.5B-$2.0B in FY2027 will narrow discretionary cash.
Debt maturity wall limits financial flexibility under elevated borrowing rates
BMY carries $45,053M in total debt with a pre-tax cost of debt of 5.93% and $8.84B maturing over 5 years.
Refinancing debt in a higher-rate environment increases annual interest expense above FY2025's $1,891M, limiting capital return expansion.
Specialty commercial growth portfolio is scaling but cannot yet offset core blockbuster losses
Qvantig is annualizing over $1B with 15% market share toward a 30%-40% target, yet consensus FY2027 revenue contracts to $48,208M.
Turnaround inflection will require multiple years of clinical trial progression and new commercial launches before top-line expansion resumes.
Merck & Co., Inc.MRK
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý141,37 US$Report-date price150,33 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNone
Bảng điểm đầu tư52 / 100
Biogen Inc.BIIB
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý253,08 US$Report-date price199,36 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư65 / 100
Biên
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
$125.6B
9.4x
2.6x
8.4x
46.6%
—
PFE
Pfizer Inc.
$161.6B
9.8x
2.5x
8.4x
5.0%
27.9%
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
$221.8B
16.8x
5.8x
15.2x
91.5%
35.5%
MRK
Merck & Co. Inc.
$364.8B
15.5x
5.5x
14.3x
7.0%
-0.2%
BIIB
Biogen Inc.
$33.5B
13.7x
3.3x
12.1x
4.6%
25.1%
Biopharmaceutical Loss of Exclusivity Acceleration
negative
Rapid generic substitution following European and US patent expirations strips off 80%+ of branded revenues within 24 months of loss of exclusivity, impacting Eliquis from late 2026 onward.
