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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
CPB — frequently asked questions
Is The Campbell's Company overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-21, CPB looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 19,9 USD versus our fair value of 26,8 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 48,4 USD. That implies roughly 34.9% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-21, gives CPB a fair value of 26,8 USD and a potential value of 48,4 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for The Campbell's Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy CPB now?
Our latest published rating for CPB, analyzed 2026-10-21, is Strong Buy. The Campbell's Company looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 19,9 USD versus fair value of 26,8 USD; potential value is 48,4 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for CPB?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-21 documents The Campbell's Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is CPB's rating?
Our latest published rating for CPB, analyzed 2026-10-21, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 26,8 USD, the potential value of 48,4 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (19,9 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyStrong Buy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$19.86
Giá trị hợp lý
$26.80
Giá trị tiềm năng
$48.35
Tính đến
2026-10-20
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
The enterprise efficiency program targeting $350M in incremental savings through FY2030 provides a clear operational driver to expand operating margin from 8.74% back toward historical double-digit profitability, creating substantial earnings leverage as Snacks volumes stabilize.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Persistent center-store private-label price competition and aggressive trade promotion demands from top retail customers.
The Campbell's Company (CPB) carries a Strong Buy rating with a Fair value of $26.80, representing 34.9% upside from $19.86. The investment thesis centers on non-cyclical cash flow from core meals franchises, volume stabilization in snacks, and significant margin expansion driven by an enterprise efficiency program as balance sheet deleveraging proceeds.5
The Campbell's Company is navigating near-term center-store packaged food headwinds, including input cost inflation, consumer trade-down to private-label offerings, and retail grocer promotional demands. These dynamics compressed FY2026 operating margin to 8.74% and led management to guide FY2027 gross margin down an additional 50 to 100 bps. Furthermore, organic sales in Snacks fell 4% in FY2026 and are projected down high single digits in Q1 FY2027, reflecting elasticity friction and consumer price .
In response, management is executing decisive strategic interventions to protect profitability and strengthen the balance sheet. A comprehensive enterprise cost savings program is targeting $500M in cumulative cost reductions by fiscal 2030 ($350M incremental), focused on direct procurement, overhead restructuring, and supply chain network optimization. Concurrently, the Board reset the quarterly dividend by 36% to $0.25 per share ($1.00 annualized), conserving substantial discretionary cash flow to accelerate debt paydown on $7,137M of total debt.4,5
At 11.88x forward P/E, the stock trades at an attractive discount to Fair value $26.80. Supported by robust annual operating cash flow of $1,039M and resilient staple demand in Meals & Beverages ($5,928M FY2026 revenue), the risk-reward profile is skewed favorably for patient long-term investors as margin recovery unfolds.4,6,7
The stock trades at an undemanding 11.88x forward P/E, reflecting overly pessimistic assumptions regarding center-store competitive headwinds relative to Fair value $26.80.4
Substantial Operational Margin Expansion Runway
The enterprise cost savings program targeting $350M in incremental savings through FY2030 provides a clear operational roadmap to lift operating margins from fiscal 2026 trough levels back toward double-digit profitability.5
Strong Cash Generation and Accelerated Deleveraging
Robust operating cash flow of $1,039M and a reduced annual dividend burden generate strong discretionary cash flow to systematically de-risk the balance sheet.6
Khuyến nghị của hãng
The Campbell's Company is a compelling turnaround and compounding opportunity where resilient core staple cash generation, a disciplined dividend reset, and a structured enterprise efficiency program create significant upside toward intrinsic Fair value $26.80.5
Tổng quan công ty
The Campbell's Company (NASDAQ: CPB) is a leading North American packaged food manufacturer headquartered in Camden, New Jersey. The company manufactures and markets branded convenience food products across two primary operating divisions: Meals & Beverages and Snacks. In FY2026, the company generated $9,744M in consolidated net sales.
The Meals & Beverages segment generated $5,928M in FY2026 net sales, offering condensed and ready-to-serve soups under the Campbell's brand, broths and stocks under Swanson and Pacific Foods, pasta sauces under Prego and Rao's, and beverages under V8. The Snacks segment generated $3,816M in FY2026 net sales, comprising Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers, and fresh bakery, Goldfish crackers, Snyder's of Hanover pretzels, Lance sandwich crackers, and Late July tortilla chips. The company sells primarily through retail grocers, mass merchandisers, club stores, and convenience channels across the United States and Canada.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
Under severe macroeconomic and competitive stress where retail customer concessions force gross margin below 27.00% and Snacks organic volume declines persist beyond the high-single-digit contraction guided for Q1 FY2027, consolidated operating profit would remain depressed near $750M. This would delay balance sheet deleveraging on $7,137M of total debt and prevent valuation multiple expansion. However, the company's decision to reset the quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share ($1.00 annualized) preserves roughly $170M in discretionary cash flow annually, while defensive non-cyclical demand in core Meals & Beverages ($5,928M FY2026 revenue) and ongoing cost savings execution provide robust solvency protection.
In the Bear case, persistent consumer trade-down to private-label offerings and aggressive retail grocer trade promotion demands depress center-store volumes. Input cost inflation outpaces procurement savings, leaving gross margins depressed below 27.50% and operating margin trapped below 9.00%. Elevated debt service on $7,137M total debt limits multiple expansion, causing the valuation multiple to align with center-store packaged food peers such as Conagra at 9.64x forward P/E.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Operating margin contraction from retail grocer promotional demands and persistent commodity input cost inflation
The Campbell's Company maintains a narrow economic moat grounded in brand intangibles and scale-driven distribution across North American retail grocery aisles. The company's portfolio features dominant category anchors including Campbell's condensed and ready-to-serve soups, Swanson broths, Rao's premium pasta sauces, and Pepperidge Farm baked goods, which together generated $9,744M in consolidated FY2026 net sales. These iconic trademarks create durable consumer habits and top-of-mind brand recognition that insulate core product volumes from standard business cycle fluctuations.
Despite brand strength, the moat is constrained to Narrow rather than Wide due to high retail customer concentration and intense competition from private-label alternatives. In FY2026, the company's five largest retail customers represented approximately 48% of consolidated net sales, with Walmart alone accounting for 22%,. This concentration limits pricing power, requiring ongoing trade promotion allowances to preserve prime eye-level shelf space and end-cap merchandising.
Scale advantages in direct-store-delivery logistics and enterprise procurement provide tangible cost efficiencies relative to smaller packaged food peers. Management is leveraging this scale through a comprehensive enterprise efficiency program targeting $500M in cumulative cost savings by fiscal 2030 ($350M incremental),. These initiatives protect baseline profitability and support reinvestment in product innovation to defend market share against private-label encroachment.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
FY2026 ROIC was pressured to approximately 6.09% by integration costs and inflation-driven gross margin compression, trailing the computed WACC of 6.47%. However, projected operating margin expansion toward 12.00% driven by the $500M enterprise efficiency program is expected to lift returns above capital costs over the medium term.2,5
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Brand Intangibles and Category Leadership — Iconic household franchises including Campbell's, Rao's, Pepperidge Farm, and Goldfish generate $9,744M in consolidated net sales, commanding primary shelf positioning across North American grocers.Moderate
02Scale Distribution and Logistics Network — National direct-store-delivery logistics and high-volume manufacturing scale allow efficient fulfillment across center-store aisles, supporting $1,039M in operating cash flow in FY2026.Moderate
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Private-label displacement and aggressive promotional demands from consolidated grocery retailers.
high
12 to 24 months
Differentiating through premium brand equity in Rao's and targeted innovation in Campbell's Nourish while deploying enterprise procurement savings to fund promotional programs.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($26.80). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
In the Bull case, premium brands including Rao's and Pepperidge Farm expand market share while snacking volumes rebound faster than guided. Accelerated realization of the $500M enterprise efficiency program expands operating margins past 12.50%, allowing rapid balance sheet deleveraging and driving valuation toward the upper fair value boundary of $48.35.5
Kích hoạt: Snacks organic net sales inflecting to positive territory and operating margin expanding toward double digits in FY2027
A faster-than-projected volume inflection in Snacks alongside operating margin expansion toward double digits would confirm that cost takeout and brand investments are accelerating the recovery ahead of base case expectations.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Strong Buy; Hold allocation steady while tracking supply chain cost savings and working capital trends.
Kích hoạt: FY2027 adjusted EPS of $1.65 to $1.80 and gross margin contraction within guided 50 to 100 bps5
Delivering within full-year adjusted EPSguidance and containing gross margin contraction within guided ranges confirms that the turnaround remains on schedule.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Halt incremental capital additions and re-evaluate private-label volume elasticities.
Kích hoạt: Gross margin contraction exceeding guided ranges and Snacks organic sales contraction persisting at high single digits in FY2027
Gross margin contraction worsening beyond guidance or prolonged high-single-digit snacking volume declines would demonstrate that competitive pricing pressure is overwhelming the efficiency program, threatening the deleveraging timeline.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
GAAP diluted EPS of $1.31 in FY2026 diverged from adjusted diluted EPS of $2.17 primarily due to $117M in pre-tax impairment charges on Cape Cod and Kettle Brand trademarks ($0.29 per share) and $202M in aggregate restructuring and cost savings charges ($0.51 per share). Operating cash flow remained robust at $1,039M, representing a healthy cash conversion of over 250% relative to reported net income of $403M. This cash flow resilience confirms that underlying earnings quality is sound, as core operating cash generation significantly exceeds GAAP net earnings.6
Xu hướng dự báo
Consensus estimates were adjusted downward following the Q4 FY2026 release to incorporate management guidance of 50 to 100 bps in gross margin contraction and high-single-digit Snacks sales declines in Q1 FY2027. FY2027 consensus EPS settled at $1.70, aligning expectations with near-term supply chain headwinds before second-half efficiency benefits emerge.1,5
Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố
01
Chỉ số:
Snacks Organic Net Sales and Volume Trajectory
Hiện tạiDown 6% in Q4 FY2026; guided down high single digits in Q1 FY2027.
Vì sao quan trọng
Snacks represents 39% of net sales ($3,816M in FY2026); volume stabilization is vital to halt category share erosion.7
02
Chỉ số:
Enterprise Cost Savings Program Execution
Hiện tại$225M achieved under prior plan; targeting $350M incremental savings.
Vì sao quan trọng
Capturing incremental cost savings through FY2030 is the primary operational mechanism to lift toward historical double-digit profitability.
The company generated $1,039M in cash flow from operations in FY2026, compared to $1,131M in FY2025. After capital expenditures of $361M, free cash flow stood at $678M. Non-cash charges included $413M in depreciation and amortization and $117M in pre-tax impairment charges on Kettle Brand and Cape Cod trademarks. Operating cash flow conversion relative to GAAP net income of $403M exceeded 250%, demonstrating that cash generation remains resilient despite headline net income volatility. Working capital represented a moderate cash outflow of $161M, driven primarily by inventory builds that are expected to normalize as supply chain planning improves.6
Phân bổ vốn
Management took decisive action to realign capital allocation by resetting the quarterly dividend by 36% to $0.25 per share ($1.00 annualized). This reduction preserves approximately $170M in annual , redirecting discretionary capital toward paying down $7,137M in total debt. were managed prudently at $361M in FY2026, below industry -to-depreciation benchmarks, focusing strictly on high-return automation and network restructuring. M&A activity has transitioned to integration mode following the closing of La Regina and Sovos Brands, allowing management to prioritize debt retirement.
Return on invested capital was temporarily compressed to 6.09% in FY2026 due to inflation headwinds and Sovos acquisition debt. However, ROIC is poised to recover as operating margin expands from 8.74% toward 12.00% by FY2031 through the $500M enterprise efficiency program.
Current ROIC of 6.09% hovers near the computed WACC of 6.47%, but projected EBIT expansion toward $1.20B restores an attractive spread above capital costs.
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.31 thg 7, 2026
Doanh thu2,1 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−1,6 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp583 Tr US$Chi phí hoạt động−579 Tr US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động4 Tr US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−64 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng-60 Tr US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
2.137.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
1.554.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
583.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
579.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
4.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-64.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
-60.000.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản14,9 T US$Tiền mặt132 Tr US$Tài sản ngắn hạn2,2 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả11 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn2,9 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu3,9 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
14.896.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt
132.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
2.232.000.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
10.992.000.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
2.906.000.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
3.904.000.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng403 Tr US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+413 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+56 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác+167 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động1 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ132 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+1 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−357 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−419 Tr US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá−1 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ394 Tr US$
1 T US$ − 361 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 678 Tr US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
403.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
1.039.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
413.000.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
56.000.000 US$
Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác
167.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
1.039.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
1.171.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
132.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
357.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
419.000.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
1.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
394.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-357.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-419.000.000 US$
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2026-08-02.
9,7 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng
Meals Beverages5,9 T US$60,8%−4,1% so với cùng kỳ
Snacks3,8 T US$39,2%−6,3% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-09-24 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Meals Beverages
5,9 T US$
60,8%
-4,1%
Snacks
3,8 T US$
39,2%
-6,3%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-21.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2017-07-30
5,8 T US$
1,7 T US$
887 Tr US$
1,3 T US$
950 Tr US$
338 Tr US$
318 Tr US$
60 Tr US$
437 Tr US$
420 Tr US$
—
-368 Tr US$
-908 Tr US$
—
37 Tr US$
46 Tr US$
2,5 T US$
24,5%
—
4,6%
—
2018-07-29
6,6 T US$
867 Tr US$
261 Tr US$
1,3 T US$
898 Tr US$
407 Tr US$
394 Tr US$
61 Tr US$
86 Tr US$
426 Tr US$
—
-7,2 T US$
5,8 T US$
37 Tr US$
49 Tr US$
59 Tr US$
8,6 T US$
15,3%
—
4,1%
—
2019-07-28
8,1 T US$
1,4 T US$
211 Tr US$
1,4 T US$
1 T US$
384 Tr US$
446 Tr US$
58 Tr US$
0 US$
423 Tr US$
—
153 Tr US$
-1,6 T US$
49 Tr US$
31 Tr US$
31 Tr US$
8,5 T US$
12,1%
—
3,5%
—
2020-08-02
8,7 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,6 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,1 T US$
299 Tr US$
328 Tr US$
61 Tr US$
0 US$
426 Tr US$
—
2,3 T US$
-3 T US$
31 Tr US$
859 Tr US$
859 Tr US$
6,3 T US$
12,7%
—
1,9%
—
2021-08-01
8,5 T US$
1,9 T US$
1 T US$
1 T US$
760 Tr US$
275 Tr US$
317 Tr US$
64 Tr US$
36 Tr US$
439 Tr US$
—
-158 Tr US$
-1,7 T US$
859 Tr US$
69 Tr US$
69 Tr US$
5,1 T US$
18,2%
—
2,4%
—
2022-07-31
8,6 T US$
1,5 T US$
757 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
939 Tr US$
242 Tr US$
337 Tr US$
59 Tr US$
167 Tr US$
451 Tr US$
176 Tr US$
-230 Tr US$
-910 Tr US$
69 Tr US$
109 Tr US$
109 Tr US$
5 T US$
13,6%
—
3,6%
—
2023-07-30
9,4 T US$
1,7 T US$
858 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
773 Tr US$
370 Tr US$
387 Tr US$
63 Tr US$
142 Tr US$
447 Tr US$
-138 Tr US$
-340 Tr US$
-723 Tr US$
109 Tr US$
189 Tr US$
189 Tr US$
4,7 T US$
14,0%
—
4,8%
—
2024-07-28
9,6 T US$
1,4 T US$
567 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
668 Tr US$
517 Tr US$
411 Tr US$
99 Tr US$
67 Tr US$
445 Tr US$
2,4 T US$
-3,1 T US$
1,9 T US$
189 Tr US$
108 Tr US$
108 Tr US$
7,5 T US$
10,4%
—
4,7%
—
2025-08-03
10,3 T US$
1,6 T US$
602 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
705 Tr US$
426 Tr US$
434 Tr US$
57 Tr US$
62 Tr US$
459 Tr US$
-356 Tr US$
-187 Tr US$
-919 Tr US$
108 Tr US$
132 Tr US$
132 Tr US$
7,2 T US$
11,0%
—
4,6%
—
2026-08-02
9,7 T US$
1,3 T US$
403 Tr US$
1 T US$
678 Tr US$
361 Tr US$
413 Tr US$
56 Tr US$
26 Tr US$
470 Tr US$
—
-357 Tr US$
-419 Tr US$
132 Tr US$
394 Tr US$
394 Tr US$
7,1 T US$
8,7%
—
5,2%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
The Campbell's Company (CPB) trades at 11.9x forward earnings against a peer median of 13.9x. Its EV/EBITDA of 8.2x compares with a peer median of 10.5x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Lamb Weston Holdings Inc., Hormel Foods Corporation, Conagra Brands Inc. and McCormick & Company Incorporated, as of 2026-10-21.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Contraction
Packaged food industry capex-to-revenue stands at 2.3% and capex-to-depreciation at 1.34, matching Campbell's FY2026 capex of $361M against $413M in depreciation.6
Chu kỳ tăng giá
In an industry upcycle, strong consumer brand loyalty enables packaged food manufacturers to execute net pricing increases that outpace input inflation, leading to gross margin expansion and operating leverage across automated production networks.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
In a packaged food downcycle, consumer elasticity increases, leading to widespread trade-down toward private-label grocery items, while consolidated retail grocers demand steeper promotional allowances and pass-through concessions that depress manufacturer operating margins.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
At-Home Meal Preparation and Cooking Trends
positive
Sustained preference for convenient cooking at home benefits core shelf-stable soup, broth, and Rao's premium pasta sauces.
Private-Label Penetration in Center-Store Aisles
negative
Consumer price sensitivity in packaged food drives selective trade-down to store-brand snacks and simple meals, requiring promotional defense.
Định vị
Campbell's holds defensive market-leading positions across core cooking and soup categories ($5,928M FY2026 revenue) while navigating transitional volume friction in salty snacks ($3,816M FY2026 revenue). Its diversified brand footprint across value and premium tiers provides balance throughout the consumer spending cycle.7
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
4-6%
A Strong Buy house rating with 34.94% upside to $26.80 fair value, backed by non-cyclical cash flows ($1,039M operating CF), supports an above-benchmark portfolio weighting, balanced by the company's financial leverage of $7,137M total debt.4,6
Rủi ro
Maintain position sizing strictly within the 4-6% limit to mitigate center-store packaged food customer concentration risks (top 5 customers account for 48% of sales). Monitor quarterly retail scan data for indications of shelf space changes or worsening trade spend concessions.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
At or below $19.86
Establish core primary position tranche
Captures an attractive 25.90% discount to fair value of $26.80 and an undemanding 11.88x forward P/E multiple.
Trading at 11.88x forward P/E with $1,039M in operating cash flow supporting debt reduction and a sustainable reset annualized dividend.4,6
Total Return / Growth Investor
Buy
Substantial 34.9% upside to Fair value $26.80 catalyzed by the enterprise efficiency program driving multi-year operating margin expansion.5
Defensive / Center-Store Skeptic
Hold
Center-store category competition from peers like Conagra and $7,137M total debt argue for monitoring volume elasticities before expanding exposure.3,4
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Mua mạnh
The Campbell's Company is rated Strong Buy with a Fair value of $26.80, representing 34.9% upside from $19.86.
Defensive staple cash flows in Meals & Beverages and an enterprise efficiency program provide strong operational leverage and debt reduction capacity, outweighing near-term category volume softness.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-21 · Published 2026-10-21 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figuresCited in Cây quyết định lợi nhuận
Market and peer researchData as of 2026-10-21 · Published 2026-10-21 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figuresCited in Kịch bản tiêu cực, Quan điểm nhà đầu tư
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Prolonged Snacks volume contraction and private-label displacement across center-store retail aisles
Snacks organic net sales fell 4% in FY2026 and 6% in Q4, guided down high single digits in Q1 FY2027, with full-year net sales guided down 2% to 4%.5,6,7
FV impact
-2.3%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Valuation multiple de-rating to center-store packaged food peer levels driven by high financial leverage
Peer Conagra trades at 9.64x forward P/E; CPB's $7,137M total debt and elevated balance sheet leverage warrant a comparable valuation multiple de-rating if center-store margin pressures persist.3,4
FV impact
-7.7%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
snacks_organic_sales_growth
Structural share loss to private-label alternatives across salty snacks and bakery aisles.
Hiện tại:-6% organic YoY in Q4 FY2026
Cảnh báo nếu< -4.00% organic YoY over 24 months
03
retail_customer_concentration
Delisting of key SKUs or aggressive retail trade promotion clawbacks eroding realized net price realization.
Hiện tại:48% across top 5 customers and 22% at Walmart
Cảnh báo nếuTotal debt remaining above $7,000M through FY2027
Input cost inflation and tariff pressures compressing gross margins by guided 50 to 100 bps in FY2027.
medium
12 months
Implementing surgical 4-5% price increases on 60% of the portfolio and accelerating supply chain network optimization to capture $350M incremental savings.5
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
How this lens was calculated
Inputs used in this report
Operating margin steadily recovers toward historical double-digit levels by FY2031
Annual capital expenditures remain disciplined in line with historical run-rates
The modal expected path reflects stabilization of core Meals & Beverages net sales near $5.9B, progressive volume recovery in Snacks following guided Q1 FY2027 headwinds, and steady realization of the $350M incremental cost savings program. Operating margin normalizes from 8.74% toward double-digit profitability by FY2031, driving sustainable cash flow and debt reduction.5,6,7
Meals & Beverages delivered $5,928M in net sales, while Snacks net sales fell 6% to $3,816M.
Defensive meal and cooking franchises insulate overall enterprise earnings while management executes targeted product and marketing interventions in snacking.
Management identified $350M in incremental cost savings through FY2030 beyond the $225M already achieved.
Enterprise-wide cost savings across direct procurement and network optimization provide the operational bridge to lift operating margins from 8.74% toward 12.00%.
Conagra Brands, Inc.CAG
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý26,66 US$Report-date price14,71 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư49 / 100
McCormick & Company IncorporatedMKC
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý57,6 US$Report-date price48,72 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư63 / 100
Biên
CPB
The Campbell's Company
$5.9B
11.9x
0.6x
8.2x
10.1%
—
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.
$7.4B
15.2x
1.1x
10.5x
14.2%
9.5%
HRL
Hormel Foods Corporation
$11.3B
13.1x
0.9x
10.5x
4.3%
8.6%
CAG
Conagra Brands Inc.
$6.9B
9.6x
0.6x
8.6x
-24.9%
11.6%
MKC
McCormick & Company Incorporated
$12.8B
14.8x
1.7x
12.0x
22.6%
17.8%
Retail Customer Channel Consolidation
negative
Top 5 retail grocers controlling 48% of sales exerts heightened bargaining leverage on merchandising and promotional allowances.
Operating margin failing to expand above fiscal 2026 baseline levels
Evaluate cost program realization timeline and adjust medium-term EBIT forecast.
Balance Sheet Deleveraging Pace
Total debt remains above $7,000M at FY2027 year-end
