Is Exelon Corporation overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-03, EXC looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 40,7 USD versus our fair value of 59,4 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 80,1 USD. That implies roughly 45.9% upside to fair value at that date.

What is EXC's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, gives EXC a fair value of 59,4 USD and a potential value of 80,1 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Exelon Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy EXC now?

Our latest published rating for EXC, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Strong Buy. Exelon Corporation looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 40,7 USD versus fair value of 59,4 USD; potential value is 80,1 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for EXC?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-03 documents Exelon Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is EXC's rating?

Our latest published rating for EXC, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 59,4 USD, the potential value of 80,1 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (40,7 USD).

What archetype is EXC?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03, Exelon Corporation is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for EXC.

EXC stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

StockMarketAgent researchĐã phân tích 2026-10-03

Exelon Corporation

EXC

Mua mạnh

Tiềm năng tăng 45,9% đến giá trị hợp lý

Report-date price

40,73 US$

Recorded 2026-10-02

Giá trị hợp lý

59,44 US$

Giá trị tiềm năng

80,14 US$

Cận trên định giá

Hào kinh tế

Narrow7 / 10

Dự phòng tiếng AnhVI

Hiển thị bản gốc tiếng Anh trong khi đang dịch

Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.

§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN

Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyStrong Buy

Giá so với giá trị

Giá: $40.73
Giá trị hợp lý: $59.44
Giá trị tiềm năng: $80.14
Tính đến: 2026-10-02

Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng

Accelerating high-density data center interconnections and regional commercial electrification across Northern Illinois (ComEd) and the Mid-Atlantic (Pepco Holdings and BGE) drive annual rate base additions above 7.5%, expanding consolidated revenue toward $27,547M and lifting diluted EPS from $2.76 in FY2025 toward $3.09 in FY2027, supporting multiple expansion toward peer averages and potential equity value up to USD 80.14 per share.

Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi

We assign a Strong Buy rating to Exelon Corporation based on a Fair value of USD 59.44 per share, offering 45.94% upside from the report-date price of USD 40.73 as of October 2, 2026.⁴

Exelon Corporation carries a Strong Buy rating. For an ordinary investor, this means the stock presents exceptional risk-adjusted total return potential, combining an above-market regulated utility dividend with durable, low-volatility earnings growth that is significantly undervalued by the market.

The stock was evaluated at a price of USD 40.73 as of October 2, 2026. Against this price, the house assessment establishes a Fair value midpoint of USD 59.44 per share, representing 45.94% upside. Under an accelerated grid expansion scenario, reaches USD 80.14 per share, representing an upside of 96.76%.

§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN

In a severe macro-regulatory stress environment, state utility commissions disallow planned grid modernization capital expenditures while compressing allowed ROEs below 9.00%. With FY2025 capital expenditures reaching $8,529M against operating cash flow of $6,254M, annual free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$2,275M. If refinancing costs across $52,673M of total debt escalate above the pre-tax cost of debt of 6.80% under a 5.24% risk-free rate, interest coverage contracts sharply, forcing equity dilution or capital program retrenchment that curtails rate base growth.

Bear scenario

Bear

Probability

25%

Return

-8.4%

Path target

$37.29

State public utility commissions cut authorized returns on equity and disallow capital investments
Extended regulatory lag delays rate base recognition and cash recovery
Elevated refinancing spreads increase corporate debt service burdens
Valuation multiples compress toward peer low levels

In the downside scenario, regulatory friction across key state jurisdictions results in capital disallowances, reduced authorized returns on equity, or prolonged regulatory lag that impairs rate base growth. Meanwhile, elevated borrowing costs increase debt service charges on the maturity ladder, compressing net margins and necessitating slower capital deployment or higher equity dilution.

Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ

State Regulatory Commission Rate Disallowances and Authorized ROE Compression

FY2025 operating income of $5,148M on revenue of $24,258M yielded an operating margin of 21.22%. If state commissions in Illinois (ICC) or Maryland cut authorized ROEs and disallow grid modernization capex across ComEd ($7,267M revenue) and BGE ($5,222M revenue), operating margin falls by 300 bps below 18.2%.^6,7

Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi

Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.

Operating Margin

Compression of operating margin below 18.20% from the FY2025 level of 21.22% ($5,148M operating income on $24,258M revenue) signals adverse rate case rulings or disallowance of grid modernization riders in Illinois or Maryland.

Hiện tại:21.22%

Cảnh báo nếu

§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN

Narrow

Exelon Corporation possesses a narrow economic moat underpinned by legally granted exclusive service territories and efficient scale across six premier operating subsidiaries: Commonwealth Edison (ComEd), PECO Energy, Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco), Delmarva Power & Light, and Atlantic City Electric. Together, these utilities generated $24,258M in consolidated revenue and $5,148M in operating income in FY2025. State regulatory compacts grant exclusive rights to distribute electricity and natural gas within designated service areas, completely insulating the company from retail customer switching or direct price competition from peer utilities such as Dominion Energy, NextEra Energy, PG&E, or Pinnacle West.

The durability of this moat is reinforced by massive efficient scale barriers. Building duplicate transmission lines, substations, and local distribution networks across major metropolitan areas including Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington D.C. is prohibited by state regulators and financially infeasible. While Exelon's moat provides exceptional volume insulation and cash flow durability, the rating is bounded at narrow because regulatory commissions establish allowed returns close to the cost of capital. With an authorized ROE regime producing returns near the company's 6.2032% WACC and 6.5424% cost of equity, shareholder value creation relies on compounding invested rate base rather than excess ROIC spreads.

Lợi nhuận kinh tế

As an exclusively regulated utility, Exelon's ROIC of approximately 5.68% operates near its computed WACC of 6.2032% and cost of equity of 6.5424%. In utility economics, economic profit is generated through expanding the invested rate base upon which authorized returns on equity (typically 9.0% to 10.0%) are earned, rather than through widening pricing spreads above capital costs.²

7/ 10

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Exclusive Regulated Geographic Service Franchises and Intangible Regulatory CompactsState-granted monopoly franchises across ComEd ($7,267M FY2025 revenue), PECO ($4,684M revenue), BGE ($5,222M revenue), and Pepco Holdings ($7,135M revenue) legally bar competing retail distribution wires within franchised territories.Wide
Efficient Scale and Transmission Network InfrastructureDuplicating Exelon's extensive electric and gas transmission and distribution assets would require tens of billions of dollars in redundant capital expenditure and is economically irrational and legally prohibited, establishing natural monopoly efficient scale.Wide

Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa	Mức độ	Mốc thời gian	Giảm thiểu
Adverse Regulatory Rulings and Disallowances on Grid Modernization Capex	high	Next 12-24 months during multi-year rate plan reviews	Active stakeholder engagement, alignment of investment filings with state statutory clean energy mandates, and geographic diversification across five states and D.C.

§5 Độ nhạy

Tỷ lệ chiết khấu

Tăng trưởng dài hạn

	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
5.5%	$67.21	$70.64	$74.63	$79.34	$84.97
6.0%	$60.51	$63.07	$65.99	$69.36	$73.27
6.5%	$55.24	$57.22	$59.44	$61.95	$64.81
7.0%	$50.97	$52.54	$54.27	$56.21	$58.39
7.5%	$47.44	$48.71	$50.10	$51.63	$53.33

Hàng: tỷ lệ chiết khấu (Ke cho lợi nhuận; WACC cho dòng tiền). Cột: tăng trưởng dài hạn.

Giá trị hợp lý

Thay đổi thời hạn (năm)

	-5	-2	0	+2	+5
Giá trị hợp lý	59,05 US$	59,28 US$	59,44 US$	59,58 US$	59,80 US$

Thời hạn lợi thế cạnh tranh tại mức cơ sở được đánh dấu: 10 năm. Các giả định khác giữ nguyên.

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($59.44). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Vực FCF

The enterprise cash-flow model projects negative first-year free cash flow; treat the sensitivity grid as provisional and re-check reinvestment assumptions.

§7 Cây quyết định lợi nhuậnEN

Vượt

Maintain Strong Buy; Maintain position; confirm that higher capital deployment is formally approved into rate base without regulatory lag across Northern Illinois and Maryland jurisdictions.

Kích hoạt: Consensus earnings and commercial load growth exceeding expectations driven by faster data center interconnections and authorized rate base additions

Execution confirms the pace of rate base compounding across the operating subsidiaries, affirming $59.44 and potential upside toward $80.14.

Đúng kỳ vọng

Maintain Strong Buy; Hold allocation steady; monitor upcoming rate case filings and tracker recovery reconciliations across operating subsidiaries.

Kích hoạt: Earnings and revenue meeting guidance ranges with steady capital deployment and timely tariff adjustments

Formula-rate utility compounding, validating our thesis and keeping the shares on track toward $59.44.

Hụt

Downgrade the rating; Re-examine capital expenditure execution schedules and scrutinize pending regulatory orders in Illinois and Maryland before deploying further capital.

Kích hoạt: Operating earnings falling short of guidance due to regulatory disallowances, higher storm restoration expenses, or elevated refinancing costs

Regulatory disallowances would compress operating margins and slow rate-base accretion, narrowing the distance between $40.73 and $59.44.

Chất lượng lợi nhuận

Earnings quality is anchored by regulated cash collections and state-approved tariff recovery mechanisms across six franchised utilities. Operating cash flows provide a dependable baseline of internal cash generation. However, reported free cash flow remains negative due to the active multi-year transformation buildout, where capital expenditures exceed depreciation to fund grid expansion. Quality of earnings depends on timely regulatory approval of formula rates and capital recovery riders, which allows capital investments to be recognized in rate base without prolonged regulatory lag or cost disallowances.

Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố

Chỉ số:
Regulatory Rate Case Orders and Authorized ROEs
Hiện tạiOperating under multi-year rate plans and formula rate filings with authorized ROEs established across operating utility jurisdictions.
Vì sao quan trọng
Authorized ROE levels and capital disallowance rulings directly govern operating margins and allowed earnings across franchised utilities; lower authorized returns reduce net income and per-share compounding.

§8 Lịch sử tài chính

Báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh — sáu kỳ gần nhất
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$17.94B	$19.08B	$21.73B	$23.03B	$24.26B	+7.8%
Gross profit	$7.01B	$8.03B	$8.93B	$9.41B	$6.77B	-0.8%
Operating income	$2.68B	$3.32B	$4.02B	$4.32B	$5.15B	+17.7%
Net income	$1.71B	$2.17B	$2.33B	$2.46B	$2.77B	+12.9%
EPS (diluted)	$1.74	$2.26	$2.38	$2.50	$2.76	+12.2%
EBITDA	$9.38B	$7.18B	$7.94B	$8.18B	$9.06B	-0.9%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$1.77B	$1.39B	—	—	—	-21.3%

Dự báo hằng năm được chấp nhận
Chỉ số	FY2026	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030
Revenue	$25.53B

Dòng tiền

Operating cash flow remained solid at $6,254M in FY2025. However, because the company is executing a large-scale transformation build ($8,529M capex), reported free cash flow was negative at -$2,275M, following -$1,528M in FY2024. In utility corporate finance, this negative FCF is not an indicator of operational distress but a reflection of discretionary rate-base investment that compounds authorized earnings in subsequent rate cycles.^5,6

Phân bổ vốn

Exelon directs virtually all available capital toward rate-base accretive capital expenditures across its regulated transmission and distribution utilities. In FY2025, capex was $8,529M, substantially exceeding depreciation of $3,643M. This capital deployment is funded by operating cash flow of $6,254M alongside issuance, leaving total debt at $52,673M. Dividend distributions are maintained with an annual dividend of $1.68 per share, representing an authorized of approximately 60% of earnings.

ROIC

Because state public utility commissions set customer rates based on authorized ROEs (generally 9.0% to 10.0% on equity rate base) and prune excessive returns, utility ROIC does not deviate significantly from capital costs. Stable ROIC matching WACC preserves invested capital while economic value is created through growth in the quantum of the rate base.

Exelon's normalized return on invested capital of approximately 5.68% tracks closely against its computed WACC of 6.2032% and cost of equity of 6.5424%.

Active transformation build phase expanding rate base above historical levels

Capex increased from $7,408M in FY2023 and $7,097M in FY2024 to $8,529M in FY2025, reaching 35.16% of revenue.

Drives consensus revenue expectations to $26,327M by FY2027 and expansion toward $3.04.

Doanh thu mới nhất24,3 T US$CAGR doanh thu −2,8%

Biên hoạt động21,2%10 kỳ tài chính

Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất-2,3 T US$FY2025

Nợ ròng48,8 T US$FY2025

Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu	24.258.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu	17.485.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp	6.773.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động	1.625.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động	5.148.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế	-2.380.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng	2.768.000.000 US$

Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản	116.570.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt	626.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn	9.546.000.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả	87.772.000.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn	10.331.000.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu	28.798.000.000 US$

Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.

StockMarketAgent.AI

Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động

Lợi nhuận ròng2,8 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+3,6 T US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−157 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động6,3 T US$

Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ

Tiền đầu kỳ939 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+6,3 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−8,5 T US$Dòng tiền tài chính+2,5 T US$Tiền cuối kỳ1,2 T US$

6,3 T US$ − 8,5 T US$Dòng tiền tự do -2,3 T US$

Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng	2.768.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động	6.411.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ	3.643.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động	6.254.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động	157.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có	9.726.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ	939.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ tài chính	2.533.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư	8.525.000.000 US$
Capex	8.529.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ	1.201.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư	-8.525.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính	2.533.000.000 US$

Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.

Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.

Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.

Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.

Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-03.

Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ	Doanh thu	EBITDA	Lợi nhuận ròng	Dòng tiền hoạt động	Dòng tiền tự do	Capex	Khấu hao và phân bổ	Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu	Mua lại cổ phiếu	Cổ tức đã trả	Phát hành nợ ròng	Dòng tiền đầu tư	Dòng tiền tài chính	Tiền đầu kỳ	Tiền cuối kỳ	Tiền mặt và đầu tư	Tổng nợ	Biên hoạt động	ROIC	WACC	Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31	31,4 T US$	9,1 T US$	1,1 T US$	8,5 T US$	-92 Tr US$	8,6 T US$	3,9 T US$	111 Tr US$	—	1,2 T US$	—	-15,5 T US$	1,2 T US$	—	914 Tr US$	888 Tr US$	34 T US$	10,2%	—	3,4%	—
2017-12-31	33,6 T US$	10,8 T US$	3,8 T US$	7,5 T US$	-104 Tr US$	7,6 T US$	3,8 T US$	88 Tr US$	—	1,2 T US$	—	-8 T US$	767 Tr US$	914 Tr US$	1,2 T US$	1,1 T US$	34 T US$	13,1%	—	3,9%	—
2018-12-31	36 T US$	9,8 T US$	2 T US$	8,6 T US$	1,1 T US$	7,6 T US$	4,4 T US$	75 Tr US$	—	1,3 T US$	—	-7,8 T US$	-219 Tr US$	1,2 T US$	1,8 T US$	1,3 T US$	35,3 T US$	10,8%	—	4,0%	—
2019-12-31	34,4 T US$	11,4 T US$	2,9 T US$	6,7 T US$	-589 Tr US$	7,2 T US$	4,3 T US$	-267 Tr US$	—	1,4 T US$	—	-7,3 T US$	-58 Tr US$	1,8 T US$	1,1 T US$	587 Tr US$	36 T US$	12,7%	—	3,1%	—
2020-12-31	16,7 T US$	10,5 T US$	2 T US$	4,2 T US$	-3,8 T US$	8 T US$	2,9 T US$	-348 Tr US$	—	1,5 T US$	—	-4,3 T US$	145 Tr US$	1,1 T US$	1,2 T US$	566 Tr US$	36,9 T US$	13,1%	—	5,6%	—
2021-12-31	17,9 T US$	9,4 T US$	1,7 T US$	3 T US$	-5 T US$	8 T US$	3 T US$	-643 Tr US$	—	1,5 T US$	—	-3,3 T US$	758 Tr US$	1,2 T US$	1,6 T US$	16,8 T US$	38,8 T US$	15,0%	—	4,3%	—
2022-12-31	19,1 T US$	7,2 T US$	2,2 T US$	4,9 T US$	-2,3 T US$	7,1 T US$	3,3 T US$	41 Tr US$	—	1,3 T US$	5 T US$	-7 T US$	1,6 T US$	1,6 T US$	1,1 T US$	407 Tr US$	37,2 T US$	17,4%	—	5,9%	—
2023-12-31	21,7 T US$	7,9 T US$	2,3 T US$	4,7 T US$	-2,7 T US$	7,4 T US$	2,8 T US$	21 Tr US$	—	1,4 T US$	4 T US$	-7,4 T US$	2,7 T US$	1,1 T US$	1,1 T US$	457 Tr US$	41,3 T US$	18,5%	—	5,8%	—
2024-12-31	23 T US$	8,2 T US$	2,5 T US$	5,6 T US$	-1,5 T US$	7,1 T US$	3,6 T US$	—	—	1,5 T US$	2,8 T US$	-7 T US$	1,3 T US$	1,1 T US$	939 Tr US$	357 Tr US$	44,7 T US$	18,8%	—	6,7%	—
2025-12-31	24,3 T US$	9,1 T US$	2,8 T US$	6,3 T US$	-2,3 T US$	8,5 T US$	3,6 T US$	—	—	1,6 T US$	3,5 T US$	-8,5 T US$	2,5 T US$	939 Tr US$	1,2 T US$	626 Tr US$	49,4 T US$	21,2%	—	5,4%	—

§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành

Exelon CorporationEXC

Giá / giá trị hợp lý

Giá trị hợp lý59,44 US$Report-date price40,73 US$

Ngày đánh giá03 thg 10, 2026

Hào kinh tếNarrow

Bảng điểm đầu tư60 / 100

Dominion Energy, Inc.D

Giá / giá trị hợp lý

Giá trị hợp lý64,25 US$Report-date price61,58 US$

Ngày đánh giá02 thg 10, 2026

Hào kinh tếNarrow

Bảng điểm đầu tư55 / 100

NextEra Energy Inc.NEE

Giá / giá trị hợp lý

Giá trị hợp lý87,41 US$Report-date price83,43 US$

Ngày đánh giá08 thg 9, 2026

Hào kinh tếNone

Bảng điểm đầu tư49 / 100

Hệ số và biên lợi nhuận đối thủ
Mã CK	Tên	Vốn hóa	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

Exelon Corporation (EXC) trades at 13.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.1x compares with a peer median of 13.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Dominion Energy Inc., Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, NextEra Energy Inc. and PG&E Corporation, as of 2026-10-03.

§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN

Pha chu kỳ

Expansion

The utility sector is undergoing a major capital expansion cycle driven by grid modernization, clean energy transition mandates, and accelerating data center load growth. Industry benchmark capex-to-revenue stands at 33.6% (0.336) and capex-to-depreciation is 3.15x. Exelon is actively participating in this transformation build, with FY2025 capex reaching $8,529M on revenue of $24,258M (capex/revenue of 35.16%), up from $7,097M in FY2024 and $7,408M in FY2023, exceeding annual D&A of $3,643M by 2.34x.⁶

Chu kỳ tăng giá

In an extended bull cycle, accelerating commercial load growth from artificial intelligence data centers and industrial electrification sustains rate base CAGR above 7.5%, supported by supportive formula rate riders and constructive multi-year rate settlements in Illinois and Maryland.

Chu kỳ giảm giá

In a bear cycle, elevated interest rates and customer bill pushback force regulators to compress authorized ROEs below 9.0%, lengthen regulatory lag, and disallow grid capex, trapping utilities in high debt service burdens while limiting rate base growth.

Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng	Tác động	Ghi chú
Data Center Interconnection and Commercial Electrification Load Growth	positive	Explosive growth in high-density data centers across Northern Illinois (ComEd) and the PJM Mid-Atlantic corridor (Pepco and BGE) drives multi-gigawatt transmission and distribution interconnect requests, supporting capital expenditure deployment.
Grid Hardening and Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment	positive

Định vị

Exelon is positioned as a pure-play transmission and distribution utility with zero merchant generation risk following the spin-off of Constellation Energy. Its six operating subsidiaries serve prime economic corridors with dense commercial and data center interconnection demand, positioning the company at the upper tier of rate-base growth potential among regulated peers.

§11 Quản lý vị thếEN

Quy mô vị thế

5-7%

High conviction is supported by Exelon's pure-play regulated transmission and distribution business model, exclusive franchise monopolies across six operating subsidiaries, and significant implied upside of 45.94% to fair value midpoint of $59.44 relative to the analysis price of $40.73. Sizing accommodates regulated cash flow stability while managing debt leverage exposure ($52,673M total debt).⁴

Rủi ro

Risk management is centered on monitoring regulatory compact integrity, capital expenditure execution, and balance sheet interest rate sensitivity. Because Exelon operates with elevated total debt ($52,673M) and negative free cash flow (-$2,275M in FY2025), position sizing is capped at 7% of total portfolio value. Regulatory exposure is mitigated by subsidiary diversification across five states and Washington D.C., ensuring that adverse rulings in a single jurisdiction do not impair the company's consolidated earnings power.

Đợt vào lệnh
Mức	Hành động	Lý do
At analysis price near $40.73	Initial Tranche Deployment	Initiate primary core position where shares trade at 13.7x forward P/E, reflecting a 31.48% discount to fair value of $59.44.
$38.00 - $39.50	Opportunistic Add on Rate Case Friction or Macro Weakness

Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức	Hành động
$58.00 - $60.00	Trim 30% of position
Above $75.00 approaching Potential value of $80.14	Full position review and harvest gains

Điểm kiểm tra hàng quý
Chỉ số	Ngưỡng	Hành động
Operating Margin	Below 18.20%	Review state rate case orders and reduce position weighting if disallowances prove structural.
Capex to Depreciation Ratio	Below 1.40x

§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN

Hành động

Mua mạnh

We recommend a Strong Buy on Exelon Corporation with a Fair value of USD 59.44 per share, offering 45.94% upside from the report-date price of USD 40.73 as of October 2, 2026. Exelon is a pure-play transmission and distribution utility operating under state-granted exclusive franchise monopolies across six operating utilities, completely insulating its volume and tariffs from peer competition.^4,7

The company is undergoing an aggressive transformation-build capital program ($8,529M capex in FY2025, 2.34x depreciation) that expands the regulated rate base to accommodate massive data center and electrification load growth. At 13.7x forward earnings, the stock trades at an unjustified discount to peers (such as Dominion at 16.07x and NextEra at 17.50x), providing investors an asymmetric entry point into high-quality regulated compounding.

Biggest risk

State public utility commissions (such as the ICC in Illinois or MDPSC in Maryland) issue adverse rate case orders reducing authorized ROEs below 9.0% or disallowing grid modernization capital expenditures across ComEd ($7,267M FY2025 revenue) or BGE ($5,222M FY2025 revenue). Because utility earnings depend on earning an authorized return on prudently invested rate base, regulatory disallowances or lower allowed ROEs prevent full capital recovery and compress the spread earned over Exelon's 6.2032% WACC. This suppresses operating margin below 18.20% and exacerbates the funding gap created by negative free cash flow (-$2,275M in FY2025), forcing additional debt issuance across an already leveraged $52,673M debt load or dilutive equity issuance. Consolidated operating margin drops by 300 basis points from 21.22% ($5,148M operating income on $24,258M revenue) to below 18.20%, reducing net income and causing equity valuation to decline by 18.5%. Monitor upcoming general rate case final orders from the ICC and MDPSC over the next 12 to 18 months, specifically verifying whether authorized ROEs remain at or above 9.50% and whether capital recovery riders for transmission and distribution modernization are approved without material disallowances.^2,4,5,6,7

EXC	Exelon Corporation	$42.0B	13.7x	1.7x	11.1x	9.7%	—
D	Dominion Energy Inc.	$53.9B	16.1x	3.0x	13.6x	8.3%	29.2%
PNW	Pinnacle West Capital Corporation	$11.6B	17.2x	2.1x	13.1x	9.4%	21.3%
NEE	NextEra Energy Inc.	$160.2B	17.5x	5.6x	19.1x	11.7%	31.5%
PCG	PG&E Corporation	$37.0B	6.8x	1.4x	8.9x	9.3%	24.8%

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Tổng quan công ty

Operating Margin

Narrow

Sources of advantage

Lenses that set Fair value

Discounted Earnings

Regulatory Rate Case Orders and Authorized ROEs

Sources

Capex to Depreciation Ratio

Total Debt Burden

Cost of Equity (Ke)

Consolidated Revenue Growth

Multi-stage Moat Fade

Forward Earnings

Owner Earnings

Dividend Discount Model

Checks and reference points

Reverse DCF

Capital Expenditure Deployment and In-Service Conversion

Commercial Electrification and Data Center Interconnection Queues

Debt Maturity Refinancing and Corporate Credit Spreads

Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow Deficit Trajectory