Fastenal Company (FAST)

NASDAQ: FAST · USD

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-05-13

Our latest published analysis: FAST rated Sell

Fastenal Company's published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$33.2 / share

Potential value

$41.1 / share

Upside to FV

-24.2%

Moat

9/10

Wide

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$50.2B
P/E (forward)	32.0x

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

P/E (forward): 32.0x
Market cap: $50.2B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	Trend
Period	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$6.98B	$7.35B	$7.55B	$8.20B	+5.5%
Gross profit	$3.22B	$3.35B	$3.40B	$3.69B	+4.7%
Operating income	$1.45B	$1.53B	$1.52B	$1.66B	+4.5%
Net income	$1.09B	$1.16B	$1.15B	$1.26B	+5.0%
EPS (diluted)	$0.95	$1.01	$1.00	$1.09	+4.9%
EBITDA	$1.63B	$1.71B	$1.69B	$1.84B	+4.1%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$1.76B	$1.83B	$1.89B	$2.04B	+4.9%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAPL	Apple Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	Bán
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ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	—	—	—	—	—	—	Giữ
ALLE	Allegion plc	—	—	—	—	—	—	Giữ

Base and Bull scenarios

Bull20%

Price target

$41.05

-6.2% from spot

Accelerated adoption of onsite locations and digital vending solutions drives continued wallet share gains. Automated supply chain routing improves operating leverage, expanding operating margins to 21% and sustaining a 26x terminal multiple.

Revenue CAGR sustained at 10% through year 5.
Operating margins expand systematically to 21.0%.
Terminal P/E multiple is held at a premium 26x.

Base60%

Price target

$33.16

-24.2% from spot

Growth normalizes as the business matures. Revenue CAGR decays from 10.9% to 5.5% over five years. Margins remain resilient at 20.2%, but the market multiple compresses to 22x, reflecting realistic mature-state distribution economics.

Revenue growth fades to 5.5% by Year 5.
Operating margins are defended at historical 20.2%.
Terminal P/E multiple compresses to 22x.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($33.17). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
5.8%	$42.0	$48.3	$57.0	$58.1	$58.1
6.8%	$33.2	$37.1	$42.0	$48.3	$57.0
7.8%	$27.4	$30.0	$33.2	$37.1	$42.0
8.8%	$23.4	$25.3	$27.4	$30.0	$33.2
9.8%	$20.4	$21.8	$23.4	$25.3	$27.4

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Forward P/E32

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E38.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROEn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROICn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

Deeper analysis on FAST

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

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Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

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Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

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Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

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Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

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Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

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Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

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Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

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Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

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Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this FAST report

What is the latest published FAST stock rating?

Fastenal Company is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-13. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full FAST analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-13, lives at /stocks/FAST/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for FAST?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-05-13 gives FAST a fair value of USD 33 and a potential value of USD 41. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the FAST page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-05-13). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellFAST · Fair value $33.2-24.2%

Read full analysis →

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	7.7
Balance Sheet	8.5
Profitability	7.5
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	9.0
Competitive Moat	9.0
Earnings Quality	6.5
Capital Efficiency	8.5

Fastenal Company (FAST)

Our latest published analysis: FAST rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · FAST

Valuation

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

Deeper analysis on FAST

Frequently asked questions

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