Phân tích sản phẩm tùy chọn
Khi được bạn cho phép, chúng tôi sử dụng phân tích giới hạn, chú trọng quyền riêng tư để hiểu hành trình nghiên cứu nào hiệu quả. Chúng tôi không dùng trình theo dõi quảng cáo hoặc ghi lại phiên. Bạn có thể thay đổi lựa chọn này trong Tùy chọn. Đọc Chính sách quyền riêng tư.
The strongest upside path is FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS meeting analyst consensus estimates, which would support the near-term recovery case.
Annual HIV product-sales growth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Hold. The $146.64 report-date price was above Fair value of $139.59. HIV supplied $20.75 billion of FY2025 consolidated revenue of $29.44 billion, making sustained contraction the main risk. FY2027 revenue estimates and FY2025 free cash flow provide the clearest upside support.13456
The main risk is sustained HIV contraction. Because HIV supplied $20.75 billion of FY2025 sales, consecutive annual declines would weaken consolidated revenue, margins, earnings, and cash.6
The clearest upside path requires FY2027 revenue to remain within the supplied estimate range, free cash flow to remain strong, and non-HIV sales to increase from the smaller cell-therapy base.146
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base, supporting consolidated revenue without relying on physical-capacity expansion.6
Hold because the report-date price exceeded Fair value while HIV concentration limits the duration of the supported recovery.3
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base. FY2025 capital spending was $563 million, but that observation does not establish future capacity needs.56
Hold because the report-date price exceeded Fair value while HIV concentration limits the duration of the supported recovery.3
GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. sells and distribute most of its products in the U.S. exclusively through the wholesale channel. Historically, approximately 90% of its gross product sales in the U.S. have been to three large wholesalers—Cardinal Health, Inc., Cencora, Inc. and McKesson Corporation—and their specialty distributor affiliates.
Prices for its products are based on local market economics and competition and sometimes differ from country to country. Its sales in countries with relatively higher prices may be reduced if products can be imported and resold into those countries from lower price markets.
The harsh coherent path combines two years of HIV contraction, a normalized consolidated operating margin below 32%, and higher required returns. This margin means recurring companywide operating profit, excluding nonrecurring items, as a share of revenue. Sales, profit, cash, and what investors pay for future earnings would fall together.
HIV contraction would reduce the largest revenue stream. If normalized consolidated operating margin also fell, recurring companywide operating profit would weaken as a share of revenue. Cash generation would decline, while higher required returns would reduce the value of future cash flows.
Annual HIV sales growth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years would shrink the largest revenue stream, weakening margins, earnings, and distributable cash.
A recurring operating margin below 32% within 24 months would show that adjusted FY2027 earnings overstate sustainable profitability and cash generation.
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
HIV is the largest product group, so sustained contraction would reduce consolidated sales before weakening operating leverage, earnings, and cash available for distributions.
Hiện tại:FY2025 HIV sales were $20.75 billion.
Cảnh báo nếuGrowth below 0% for two consecutive fiscal years.
Strong cash generation and HIV scale support present earnings, but neither proves switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, or efficient scale. Structural protection beyond the FY2027 estimate period is not established.
FY2025 free cash flow supports economic value, but future excess returns remain conditional on product durability and disciplined reinvestment.4
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($139.59). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $10.4B after modeled capex of $563.0M, with terminal value at 65.7% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
FY2027 analyst consensus estimates support higher revenue and adjusted earnings. Growth then slows because HIV concentration limits the evidence for a longer expansion.1
Higher revenue and adjusted earnings would strengthen the FY2027 outlook, but one strong result would not establish lasting growth.
Results within the FY2027 analyst consensus ranges would support near-term sales and earnings without proving that growth continues beyond FY2027.
As a scenario inference, a broad miss would weaken the revenue base and leave less operating profit and cash if margins also deteriorate.
FY2025 operating cash exceeded net income, but adjusted FY2027 EPS must remain separate from recurring reported economics.5
The FY2025 filing observations were published 2026-02-24 and retrieved 2026-09-09. Cash flow exceeded reported net income, supporting the quality of that year's earnings.5
Total debt was $26.25 billion on 2026-09-09, while cash was $7.56 billion at FY2025. Because the dates differ, these figures do not provide a matching-date net debt measure.
FY2025 profitability is evident, but the cited observations do not establish a comparable multi-year return-on-invested-capital path.
WACC was 6.9139% on 2026-09-09, but no supported ROIC comparison is presented.
FY2025 operating cash flow was $10.02 billion and free cash flow was $9.46 billion.
Cash can support distributions and debt reduction while operating performance remains stable.
FY2025 capital spending was $563 million, compared with $10.02 billion of operating cash flow.
Most operating cash remained after capital spending in FY2025.
| Doanh thu | 29.443.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Giá vốn doanh thu | 6.235.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận gộp | 23.208.000.000 US$ |
| Chi phí hoạt động | 13.186.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận hoạt động | 10.022.000.000 US$ |
| Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế | -1.512.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 8.510.000.000 US$ |
| Tổng tài sản | 59.023.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Tiền mặt | 7.564.000.000 US$ |
| Tài sản ngắn hạn | 18.342.000.000 US$ |
| Tổng nợ phải trả | 36.405.000.000 US$ |
| Nợ ngắn hạn | 11.813.000.000 US$ |
| Vốn chủ sở hữu | 22.618.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 8.510.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động | 12.164.000.000 US$ |
| Khấu hao và phân bổ | 2.760.000.000 US$ |
| Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | 894.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền hoạt động | 10.019.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động | 2.145.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền sẵn có | 20.102.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền đầu kỳ | 9.991.000.000 US$ |
| Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá | 92.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư | 4.793.000.000 US$ |
| Capex | 563.000.000 US$ |
| Hoạt động đầu tư khác | 4.230.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính | 7.745.000.000 US$ |
| Mua lại cổ phiếu | 1.922.000.000 US$ |
| Cổ tức đã trả | 4.003.000.000 US$ |
| Hoàn trả nợ ròng | 1.788.000.000 US$ |
| Hoạt động tài chính khác | 32.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền cuối kỳ | 7.564.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền đầu tư | -4.793.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền tài chính | -7.745.000.000 US$ |
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
| Doanh thu theo nhóm kinh doanh | Doanh thu | Tỷ trọng | so với cùng kỳ |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIVProduct Sales | 20,8 T US$ | 70,5% | 5,8% |
| Cell Therapy Products Total Cell Therapy Product Sales | 1,8 T US$ | 6,2% | — |
| HIVProducts Genvoya | 1,5 T US$ | 5,1% | — |
| Liver Disease Products Vemlidy | 1,1 T US$ | 3,6% | 11,6% |
| Veklury | 911 Tr US$ | 3,1% | — |
| Other Products Total Other Product Sales | 799 Tr US$ | 2,7% | -10,1% |
| Royalty Contract And Other | 527 Tr US$ | 1,8% | 266% |
| Other Products Am Bisome | 509 Tr US$ | 1,7% | -4,5% |
| HIVProducts Other HIV | 500 Tr US$ | 1,7% | 15,2% |
| HIVProducts Symtuza Revenue Share | 495 Tr US$ | 1,7% | -16,4% |
| Cell Therapy Products Tecartus | 344 Tr US$ | 1,2% | -14,6% |
| Other Products Other | 290 Tr US$ | 1% | -18,5% |
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
| Doanh thu theo khu vực | Doanh thu | Tỷ trọng | so với cùng kỳ |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 20,9 T US$ | 70,9% | 1,4% |
| Europe | 5,1 T US$ | 17,2% | 9,3% |
| Rest Of World | 3,5 T US$ | 11,9% | -0,7% |
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-09-09.
| Kỳ | Doanh thu | EBITDA | Lợi nhuận ròng | Dòng tiền hoạt động | Dòng tiền tự do | Capex | Khấu hao và phân bổ | Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | Mua lại cổ phiếu | Cổ tức đã trả | Phát hành nợ ròng | Dòng tiền đầu tư | Dòng tiền tài chính | Tiền đầu kỳ | Tiền cuối kỳ | Tiền mặt và đầu tư | Tổng nợ | Biên hoạt động | ROIC | WACC | Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 30,4 T US$ | 19,2 T US$ | 13,5 T US$ | 17 T US$ | 16,3 T US$ | 748 Tr US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 380 Tr US$ | 11 T US$ | 2,5 T US$ | — | -12 T US$ | -9,7 T US$ | — | 8,2 T US$ | 11,9 T US$ | 27,8 T US$ | 58,0% | — | 6,0% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 26,1 T US$ | 15,9 T US$ | 4,6 T US$ | 11,9 T US$ | 11,3 T US$ | 590 Tr US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 638 Tr US$ | 954 Tr US$ | 2,7 T US$ | — | -16,1 T US$ | 3,4 T US$ | 8,2 T US$ | 7,6 T US$ | 25,5 T US$ | 33,5 T US$ | 54,1% | — | 5,1% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 22,1 T US$ | 10,3 T US$ | 5,5 T US$ | 8,4 T US$ | 7,5 T US$ | 924 Tr US$ | 1,4 T US$ | 845 Tr US$ | 2,9 T US$ | 3 T US$ | — | 14,4 T US$ | -12,3 T US$ | 7,6 T US$ | 17,9 T US$ | 30,1 T US$ | 27,3 T US$ | 37,1% | — | 5,5% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 22,4 T US$ | 7,6 T US$ | 5,4 T US$ | 9,1 T US$ | 8,3 T US$ | 825 Tr US$ | 1,4 T US$ | 636 Tr US$ | 1,7 T US$ | 3,2 T US$ | — | -7,8 T US$ | -7,6 T US$ | 17,9 T US$ | 11,6 T US$ | 24,4 T US$ | 24,6 T US$ | 19,1% | — | 5,2% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 24,7 T US$ | 4,1 T US$ | 123 Tr US$ | 8,2 T US$ | 7,5 T US$ | 650 Tr US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 643 Tr US$ | 1,6 T US$ | 3,4 T US$ | — | -14,6 T US$ | 770 Tr US$ | 11,6 T US$ | 6 T US$ | 7,4 T US$ | 31,4 T US$ | 16,5% | — | 2,2% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 27,3 T US$ | 11,3 T US$ | 6,2 T US$ | 11,4 T US$ | 10,8 T US$ | 579 Tr US$ | 2,1 T US$ | 635 Tr US$ | 546 Tr US$ | 3,6 T US$ | — | -3,1 T US$ | -8,9 T US$ | 6 T US$ | 5,3 T US$ | 6,5 T US$ | 26,7 T US$ | 36,3% | — | 2,8% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 27,3 T US$ | 8,9 T US$ | 4,6 T US$ | 9,1 T US$ | 8,3 T US$ | 728 Tr US$ | 2,1 T US$ | 637 Tr US$ | 1,4 T US$ | 3,7 T US$ | -1,5 T US$ | -2,5 T US$ | -6,5 T US$ | 5,3 T US$ | 5,4 T US$ | 6,4 T US$ | 25,2 T US$ | 26,9% | — | 5,3% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 27,1 T US$ | 7,6 T US$ | 5,7 T US$ | 8 T US$ | 7,4 T US$ | 585 Tr US$ | 2,7 T US$ | 766 Tr US$ | 1 T US$ | 3,8 T US$ | -270 Tr US$ | -2,3 T US$ | -5,1 T US$ | 5,4 T US$ | 6,1 T US$ | 7,3 T US$ | 25 T US$ | 28,0% | — | 5,1% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 28,8 T US$ | 4,4 T US$ | 480 Tr US$ | 10,8 T US$ | 10,3 T US$ | 523 Tr US$ | 2,8 T US$ | 835 Tr US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 3,9 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | -3,4 T US$ | -3,4 T US$ | 6,1 T US$ | 10 T US$ | 11,6 T US$ | 26,7 T US$ | 5,8% | — | 6,1% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 29,4 T US$ | 13,6 T US$ | 8,5 T US$ | 10 T US$ | 9,5 T US$ | 563 Tr US$ | 2,8 T US$ | 894 Tr US$ | 1,9 T US$ | 4 T US$ | -1,8 T US$ | -4,8 T US$ | -7,7 T US$ | 10 T US$ | 7,6 T US$ | 9,6 T US$ | 24,9 T US$ | 34,0% | — | 6,0% | — |
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) trades at 15.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 13.9x compares with a peer median of 11.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Pfizer Inc., AbbVie Inc., Merck & Co. Inc. and Sanofi, as of 2026-07-26 to 2026-09-09.
The pharmaceutical benchmark dated 2026-09-01 shows capital spending at 1.1% of revenue and 0.8 times depreciation, indicating restrained industry investment.
A favorable demand path would preserve HIV sales while cell therapy expands from its smaller FY2025 base. FY2025 capital spending was $563 million, but that observation does not establish future capacity needs.
Weak HIV demand would transmit quickly because HIV remains the dominant product group. Geographic diversification may soften a local shock, but US revenue remains the largest disclosed category.
Gilead enters this demand-led cycle with substantial cash generation, but product concentration limits protection against an HIV-specific slowdown.46
No allocation increase. The report-date price exceeds Fair value. HIV was the dominant FY2025 product group, so concentration and wide valuation outcomes limit support for a larger position.356
Do not use the upper cash-based valuation outcomes as stand-alone sizing support because their reinvestment assumptions overlap.
Cash generation supports ownership, but the report-date price exceeds Fair value and HIV concentration limits growth duration.4
Wait for the FY2027 recovery and recurring margin evidence rather than relying on Potential value.1
FY2025 free cash flow supports distributions, although debt and concentration reduce flexibility during a setback.34
Hold because the report-date price was above Fair value. FY2027 revenue estimates support a near-term recovery, but HIV concentration limits its likely duration.1356
The case can improve if FY2027 analyst consensus revenue and adjusted earnings are met, recurring operating margin stays at or above 32%, and cell therapy contributes more.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A moderate cost of equity above 9.2834% within 12 months would reduce the present value of distant cash flows and weaken long-duration valuation support.
Slower FY2027 growth would bring mature growth forward, reducing the sales base that supports future earnings and cash flow.
Hiện tại:Analyst consensus estimates FY2027 revenue at $32.68 billion as of and retrieved 2026-09-09.
Cảnh báo nếuFY2027 growth below 2.5%.
A breach would show that each dollar of sales produces less recurring operating profit. That would weaken cash generation and indicate that provider-adjusted FY2027 earnings overstate sustainable companywide economics.
Hiện tại:FY2025 GAAP operating income was $10.02 billion on $29.44 billion of revenue.
Cảnh báo nếuNormalized consolidated operating margin below 32% within 24 months. This means recurring companywide operating profit, excluding nonrecurring items, as a share of revenue.
Higher required returns would lower what investors pay for future cash flows, with the greatest pressure on valuations that depend more heavily on distant years.
Hiện tại:Moderate cost of equity was 7.2834% on 2026-09-09.
Cảnh báo nếuAbove 9.2834% within 12 months.
A lower FY2027 estimate would reduce expected earnings per share and weaken the case that profitability can recover even if HIV sales remain stable.
Hiện tại:FY2027 adjusted diluted EPS is estimated at $9.89 as of and retrieved 2026-09-09.
Cảnh báo nếuEstimate below the supplied $9.19 low.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 65.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 80.1% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Improvement beyond FY2027 requires a larger non-HIV contribution and strong free cash flow. These are scenario conditions, while the cited evidence records FY2025 levels. Lower cell-therapy sales or weaker free cash flow would disconfirm this path.46
A lower annual estimate would shorten the recovery period and reduce future cash expectations.1
Lower recurring profitability would show that adjusted earnings overstate sustainable economics.5
| $33.50B |
| $34.33B |
| $35.19B |
| Operating income | $9.82B | $10.46B | $10.72B | $10.99B | $11.26B |
| NOPAT | $8.05B | $8.57B | $8.79B | $9.00B | $9.23B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $8.05B | $8.57B | $8.79B | $9.00B | $9.23B |
| Revenue growth | 4.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| Tax rate | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Biên |
|---|
| GILD | Gilead Sciences Inc. | $187.2B | 15.4x | 6.0x | 13.9x | -20.7% | — |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 9.6x | 2.5x | 8.3x | 5.0% | 27.9% | |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | 15.3x | 6.8x | 16.8x | 62.2% | 40.0% | |
| MRK | Merck & Co. Inc. | 15.6x | 5.5x | 14.3x | 7.0% | -0.2% | |
| SNY | Sanofi | 8.4x | 2.2x | 9.3x | 6.6% | 20.0% |
| Below 32% |
| Review reducing exposure because each dollar of sales would produce less operating profit and cash.5 |
| Free cash flow | A sustained decline that no longer supports distributions and debt reduction | Keep the position from increasing and reassess capital-return capacity.4 |
