Khi được bạn cho phép, chúng tôi sử dụng phân tích giới hạn, chú trọng quyền riêng tư để hiểu hành trình nghiên cứu nào hiệu quả. Chúng tôi không dùng trình theo dõi quảng cáo hoặc ghi lại phiên. Bạn có thể thay đổi lựa chọn này trong Tùy chọn. Đọc Chính sách quyền riêng tư.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
GS — frequently asked questions
Is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-23, GS looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 949 USD versus our fair value of 655 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 866 USD. That implies roughly 31.0% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-23, gives GS a fair value of 655 USD and a potential value of 866 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy GS now?
Our latest published rating for GS, analyzed 2026-09-23, is Sell. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 949 USD versus fair value of 655 USD; potential value is 866 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for GS?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-23 documents The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is GS's rating?
Our latest published rating for GS, analyzed 2026-09-23, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 655 USD, the potential value of 866 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (949 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâySell
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$949.49
Giá trị hợp lý
$655.45
Giá trị tiềm năng
$865.74
Tính đến
2026-09-22
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
A prolonged multi-year acceleration in global corporate mergers and acquisitions, debt refinancing, and equity underwriting drives advisory fees above prior cycle peaks, while accelerating third-party alternatives fundraising expands high-margin recurring management fee revenue.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
A synchronized freeze in global debt and equity underwriting alongside widening credit spreads that stalls corporate advisory deal completions.
We rate The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Sell as the shares trade at $949.49 on September 22, 2026, a 44.9% premium above our Fair value of $655.45.4
We assign a Sell rating to The Goldman Sachs Group Inc.. For an ordinary investor, this recommendation means reducing or exiting existing equity holdings and avoiding new capital allocation, as the shares carry an unfavorable risk-reward profile.
The report was prepared at a price of $949.49 on September 22, 2026. This price stands 44.9% above our Fair value of $655.45 and also exceeds our Potential value of $865.74, leaving no upside even under constructive operating assumptions.
The primary downside risk is a cyclical stall in capital markets underwriting combined with regulatory capital friction. If rising macroeconomic interest rate volatility or credit spread widening slows corporate transaction closures, advisory fee revenue would contract sharply, operating margins would compress toward past cyclical lows, and binding leverage constraints would force the bank to halt share repurchases.4,5
The primary upside driver is a sustained acceleration in global investment banking dealmaking and alternatives fundraising. If the record corporate advisory backlog converts into completed mergers and financing mandates while asset management fees compound, operating leverage would lift earnings per share toward our Potential value of $865.74, although this constructive path remains secondary to the downside valuation gap and regulatory capital constraints.5
Preeminent Global Investment Banking Franchise and Record Advisory Backlog
Goldman Sachs holds leadership in global M&A advisory and corporate debt/equity underwriting, with its backlog reaching a five-year high and second-highest on record. Trusted client relationships allow the firm to enter transaction discussions early and alone, driving high fee margins.5
Rapid Expansion of Capital-Light Alternative Asset Management Fees
Alternative AUM reached $459B generating $725M in quarterly management fees, supported by record 1H2026 gross third-party fundraising of $85B. Routing originated private credit into third-party funds generates compounding fee revenues without consuming regulatory balance-sheet equity.5
During cyclical upturns, wholesale banking revenue growth (~40%) substantially outpaces compensation expense growth (30%) and non-compensation expense growth (22%), rapidly expanding pre-tax margins and per-share earnings.5
Khuyến nghị của hãng
We rate Goldman Sachs Sell because the market price of $949.49 trades at an unsustainable 44.9% premium to our Fair value of $655.45, fully pricing in cyclical dealmaking recovery while underestimating binding regulatory capital constraints.4,5
Tổng quan công ty
Through its global sales force, the company maintains relationships with its clients, receiving orders and distributing investment research, trading ideas, market information and analysis. Much of this connectivity between us and its clients is maintained on technology platforms, including Marquee, and operates globally where markets are open for trading. Marquee provides institutional investors with market intelligence, risk analytics, proprietary datasets and trade execution across multiple asset classes. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. offers personalized financial planning to individuals and also provide customized investment advisory solutions, and offer structuring and execution capabilities in securities and derivative products across all major global markets. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. also raises deposits from consumers through Marcus by Goldman Sachs (Marcus).
Founded in 1869, the company is headquartered in New York and maintain offices in all major financial centers around the world. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. manages and report its activities in three business segments: Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management and Platform Solutions. Prior periods are presented on a comparable basis. See “Business — Its Business Segments” in Part I, Item 1 of this Form 10-K for further information.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
In a severe macroeconomic downturn combining a dealmaking drought with wider credit spreads, the firm's operating margin could retest the FY2023 trough of 9.91%. Total debt of $897,484,980,224 and binding leverage ratio constraints (SLR) would force balance sheet deleveraging, halting buybacks and pushing fair value down toward the bear scenario valuation target of $556.62.
Protracted freeze in debt underwriting and mergers advisory severely reduces fee pools
Oscillating regulatory capital constraints force balance sheet deleveraging and halt repurchases
Valuation multiples compress across capital markets dealers toward cyclical troughs
A downside path exists where protracted capital market stagnation and credit spread widening depress advisory fees and trading volumes. Binding balance sheet constraints across leverage ratios limit client financing capacity, while valuation multiples de-rate across the wholesale banking peer group. Disconfirmation would occur if investment banking revenues rebound briskly across consecutive quarters.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Severe capital markets slump and credit freeze triggering the analyst bear scenario path
25%· Medium
A synchronized freeze in corporate debt issuance and equity underwriting pushes FY2026 diluted EPS below the low analyst consensus estimate of $65.30, reducing fair value by 13%.1
FV impact
-11.4%
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
01
operating_margin
Operating margin falling below 15.00% indicates severe deal flow deceleration, invalidating the 18.50% normalized margin thesis.
The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. possesses a Narrow economic moat grounded in its preeminent institutional advisory brand and global market-making scale. Deep corporate boardroom and sponsor relationships allow the firm to enter transaction discussions early and alone, generating significant cross-selling into financing and hedging mandates. Management reported an investment banking backlog at its highest level in five years and second-highest on record, underpinned by a record advisory backlog.
However, a Wide moat rating is precluded by the severe earnings cyclicality inherent in capital markets and binding regulatory constraints. Operating margins dropped to 9.91% in FY2023 before recovering to 17.47% in FY2025, demonstrating exposure to wholesale market volumes that pure-play asset managers avoid.
01Institutional advisory brand and deal distribution relationships — Preeminent advisory franchise and deep sponsor relationships secure early trusted advisor access on major corporate transactions, leading directly into financing and hedging mandates, generating $41,453M in FY2025 Global Banking and Markets revenue.Wide
02Global institutional market making scale and execution breadth — Global scale across trading desks connects clients across Americas ($36,548M revenue), EMEA ($14,155M revenue), and Asia ($7,580M revenue), creating high institutional switching costs for liquidity and complex derivatives execution.Wide
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Severe cyclical downturn in M&A dealmaking and corporate underwriting
high
12 to 24 months
Active hedging in fixed income and equities financing, alongside growing fee revenues in Asset and Wealth Management ($16,679M in FY2025).8
Regulatory balance sheet constraints and capital buffer inflation under Basel III
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($655.45). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $21.2B after modeled reinvestment of $0, with terminal value at 59.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Asset & Wealth Management delivers steady fee growth through alternative asset fundraising
Disciplined capital allocation maintains regulatory compliance while funding modest buybacks
Under the base path with 55.0% probability, investment banking activity normalizes, lifting earnings steadily through FY2030, resulting in a target of $655.45 and an expected return of -31.0% from $949.49. For this path to hold, advisory backlog must convert into completed deals while Asset & Wealth Management maintains steady net inflows. Disconfirmation would occur if deal completions stall or operating margins compress.
Upgrade to Reduce; Do not add capital; re-examine operating expense leverage and evaluate whether advisory backlog momentum can sustain into future quarters.
Kích hoạt: Diluted earnings per share and advisory revenues exceed consensus expectations driven by strong underwriting activity
While a cyclical beat confirms near-term investment banking strength, the shares trading at $949.49 remain far above $655.45, keeping the risk-reward profile unfavorable.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Sell; Continue trimming exposure on strength; track regulatory capital buffers and fee growth in alternative asset management.
Kích hoạt: Quarterly results meet consensus expectations with steady underwriting and asset management fees
Meeting expectations validates the base operating forecast but does not resolve the valuation premium where $949.49 exceeds $655.45.
Hụt
Maintain Sell; Accelerate reduction of holdings and re-evaluate exposure to wholesale capital markets dealers.
Earnings falling below expectations exposes operating margin vulnerability and heightens downside risk toward the lower end of the valuation range.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Earnings quality is supported by recurring fee expansion in Asset & Wealth Management and robust revenue realization in advisory services. While cash flows fluctuate with balance sheet financing and trading receivables typical of global dealer banks, underlying earnings reflect genuine operating profits rather than accounting accruals, with share repurchases providing consistent per-share accretion.
Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố
01
Chỉ số:
Global Advisory and Underwriting Backlog
Hiện tạiBacklog reached five-year high underpinned by record advisory engagements across corporate clients.
Vì sao quan trọng
Backlog levels indicate deal completion momentum over subsequent quarters, directly determining advisory fee revenue and operating profit.
02
Chỉ số:
Alternative Assets Third-Party Capital Fundraising
Hiện tạiGross third-party fundraising reached record levels with alternative assets under management expanding steadily.
Reported operating cash flow was negative $45,154M in FY2025 and free cash flow was negative $47,218M. For a global financial institution, GAAP operating cash flow reflects changes in trading assets, collateral, and client financing receivables rather than true economic cash drain. Physical capex was $2,064M in FY2025, well covered by net income of $17,176M.6,7
Phân bổ vốn
Capital allocation prioritizes client franchise deployment first, maintaining regulatory capital ratios (CET1 and SLR) above regulatory minimums. Excess capital is returned via dividends ($5,277M in FY2025) and repurchases ($12,360M in FY2025), reducing diluted average shares by 8.2% between FY2023 and FY2025.
Operating profitability has recovered from the FY2023 trough (operating margin 9.91%) to 17.47% in FY2025, driven by operating leverage where revenues expanded ~40% against 30% compensation growth.
Return on equity of 16.90% exceeds the cost of equity of 9.98% by 6.92 percentage points, generating positive economic spread.
Operating income rose to $21,852M on $125,097M revenue in FY2025, as compensation growth (30%) lagged top-line growth (~40%).
Marginal revenues in advisory and market making flow rapidly to pre-tax earnings during cyclical upturns.
Doanh thu mới nhất125,1 T US$CAGR doanh thu +14,2%
Biên hoạt động17,5%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất-47,2 T US$FY2025
Tiền mặt ròng15 T US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu125,1 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−65,7 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp59,4 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−37,5 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động21,9 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−4,7 T US$Lợi nhuận ròng17,2 T US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
125.097.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
65.701.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
59.396.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
37.544.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
21.852.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-4.676.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
17.176.000.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản1,8 NT US$Tiền mặt164,3 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn1 NT US$Tổng nợ phải trả1,7 NT US$Nợ ngắn hạn1,2 NT US$Vốn chủ sở hữu125 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
1.809.320.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt
164.259.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
1.018.577.000.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
1.684.348.000.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
1.226.809.000.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
124.972.000.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2022.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng11,3 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+2,5 T US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+4,1 T US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−9,1 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động8,7 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ261 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+8,7 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−76 T US$Dòng tiền tài chính+59,6 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá−11,6 T US$Tiền cuối kỳ241,8 T US$
8,7 T US$ − 3,7 T US$Dòng tiền tự do 5 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
11.261.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
17.799.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
2.455.000.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
4.083.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
8.708.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
9.091.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
329.346.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
261.036.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ tài chính
59.602.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
75.960.000.000 US$
Capex
3.748.000.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
72.212.000.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
11.561.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
241.825.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-75.960.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
59.602.000.000 US$
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
58,3 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng
Global Banking And Markets41,5 T US$71,1%+18,2% so với cùng kỳ
Asset And Wealth Management16,7 T US$28,6%+2,2% so với cùng kỳ
Platform Solutions151 Tr US$0,3%−92,9% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Global Banking And Markets
41,5 T US$
71,1%
18,2%
Asset And Wealth Management
16,7 T US$
28,6%
2,2%
Platform Solutions
151 Tr US$
0,3%
-92,9%
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
58,3 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
Americas36,5 T US$62,7%+6,1% so với cùng kỳ
EMEA14,2 T US$24,3%+15,6% so với cùng kỳ
Asia7,6 T US$13%+11,2% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Americas
36,5 T US$
62,7%
6,1%
EMEA
14,2 T US$
24,3%
15,6%
Asia
7,6 T US$
13%
11,2%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-09-23.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
37,9 T US$
11,3 T US$
7,4 T US$
6,5 T US$
3,6 T US$
2,9 T US$
998 Tr US$
2,1 T US$
6,1 T US$
1,7 T US$
—
9,7 T US$
12,1 T US$
—
121,7 T US$
238,6 T US$
322,3 T US$
27,2%
—
6,4%
—
2017-12-31
42,8 T US$
12,3 T US$
4,3 T US$
-20,5 T US$
-23,7 T US$
3,2 T US$
1,2 T US$
1,8 T US$
6,8 T US$
1,8 T US$
—
-26,4 T US$
35,2 T US$
121,7 T US$
110,1 T US$
230,9 T US$
374,1 T US$
26,0%
—
5,1%
—
2018-12-31
52,4 T US$
13,8 T US$
10,5 T US$
16,6 T US$
8,6 T US$
8 T US$
1,3 T US$
1,8 T US$
3,3 T US$
1,8 T US$
—
-18,8 T US$
22,8 T US$
110,1 T US$
130,5 T US$
405,1 T US$
265,1 T US$
23,8%
—
10,5%
—
2019-12-31
53,9 T US$
12,3 T US$
8,5 T US$
23,9 T US$
15,4 T US$
8,4 T US$
1,7 T US$
2 T US$
5,3 T US$
2,1 T US$
—
-24,2 T US$
3,4 T US$
130,5 T US$
133,5 T US$
197,5 T US$
363,9 T US$
19,6%
—
10,3%
—
2020-12-31
53,5 T US$
14,4 T US$
9,5 T US$
-18,5 T US$
-24,8 T US$
6,3 T US$
1,9 T US$
1,9 T US$
1,9 T US$
2,3 T US$
—
-34,4 T US$
70,4 T US$
133,5 T US$
155,8 T US$
156,4 T US$
420,2 T US$
23,3%
—
5,4%
—
2021-12-31
65 T US$
29,1 T US$
21,6 T US$
6,3 T US$
1,6 T US$
4,7 T US$
2 T US$
2,3 T US$
5,2 T US$
2,7 T US$
—
-30,5 T US$
134,7 T US$
155,8 T US$
261 T US$
778,7 T US$
487,8 T US$
41,6%
—
2,9%
—
2022-12-31
68,7 T US$
15,9 T US$
11,3 T US$
8,7 T US$
5 T US$
3,7 T US$
2,5 T US$
4,1 T US$
3,5 T US$
3,7 T US$
38,1 T US$
-76 T US$
59,6 T US$
261 T US$
241,8 T US$
722 T US$
434,5 T US$
19,6%
—
12,3%
—
2023-12-31
108,4 T US$
15,6 T US$
8,5 T US$
-12,6 T US$
-14,9 T US$
2,3 T US$
4,9 T US$
2,1 T US$
5,8 T US$
4,2 T US$
-4,7 T US$
-17,3 T US$
27,8 T US$
241,8 T US$
241,6 T US$
924,9 T US$
583,1 T US$
9,9%
—
13,7%
—
2024-12-31
126,9 T US$
20,8 T US$
14,3 T US$
-13,2 T US$
-15,3 T US$
2,1 T US$
2,4 T US$
2,7 T US$
8 T US$
4,5 T US$
10,6 T US$
-49,6 T US$
7,3 T US$
241,6 T US$
182,1 T US$
921,8 T US$
616,9 T US$
14,5%
—
12,0%
—
2025-12-31
125,1 T US$
24 T US$
17,2 T US$
-45,2 T US$
-47,2 T US$
2,1 T US$
2,2 T US$
3,4 T US$
12,4 T US$
5,3 T US$
19 T US$
-44,2 T US$
66,1 T US$
182,1 T US$
164,3 T US$
624,5 T US$
609,5 T US$
17,5%
—
11,5%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.GS
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý655,45 US$Report-date price949,49 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư57 / 100
Morgan StanleyMS
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý119,68 US$Report-date price206,12 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư55 / 100
Robinhood Markets, Inc.HOOD
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý27,39 US$Report-date price75,41 US$
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Hào kinh tếnarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư57 / 100
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.GS
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý655,45 US$Report-date price949,49 US$
The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) trades at 12.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.6x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Morgan Stanley, Robinhood Markets, Inc., The Charles Schwab Corporation and BlackRock Inc., as of 2026-09-23.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Industry capital intensity shows capex to revenue of 1.6% and capex to depreciation of 1.7x, while the firm's FY2025 capex of $2,064M sits slightly below depreciation of $2,182M.7
Chu kỳ tăng giá
An accelerating global corporate transaction cycle driven by private equity sponsor monetization, debt refinancing, and corporate restructuring elevates M&A advisory fees, while market volatility spurs institutional hedging and trading volumes across fixed income and equities.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
Higher-for-longer interest rates, geopolitical instability, or regulatory friction stall debt and equity underwriting, while risk-off markets compress client trading activity and trigger valuation markdowns across alternative investment portfolios.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Private credit expansion and alternative asset institutionalization
positive
Rapid institutional demand for private credit and infrastructure investments enables third-party asset fundraising ($85B in 1H2026) without consuming bank regulatory balance sheet equity.
Basel III Endgame and tightening global capital requirements
negative
Escalating risk-weighted asset requirements and supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rules constrain wholesale banks' capacity to deploy balance sheet for trading and financing.
AI infrastructure financing and corporate energy transition
positive
Multi-year capital expenditure programs in artificial intelligence infrastructure and energy require complex syndicated debt packages, project finance, and advisory services.
Định vị
The firm occupies a tier-one position in global dealmaking with an advisory backlog at a five-year high, while strategically shifting origination into Asset & Wealth Management ($16,679M FY2025 revenue) to mitigate regulatory balance sheet constraints.5,8
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
0%
With the shares trading at $949.49 against a Fair value midpoint of $655.45, an underweight or zero allocation is warranted under our Sell rating.4
Rủi ro
Risk management focuses on protecting capital against valuation compression in an environment where market pricing assumes sustained cyclical expansion. Investors should monitor credit spreads, leverage ratio constraints, and underwriting pipeline conversion.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$655.45 (Fair value midpoint)
Re-evaluate valuation support
A pullback to Fair value of $655.45 would eliminate the market premium and restore risk-reward neutrality.
$556.62 (Bear model reference)
Consider initiating disciplined long positions
A decline toward the lower valuation boundary would provide an adequate margin of safety to absorb wholesale banking volatility.
Maintain aggressive underweight stance as cyclical fee recovery stalls.8
cet1_capital_ratio
< 13.00%
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Value Investor
Avoid
Trading at a 44.9% premium to Fair value ($655.45) and a forward P/E of 12.69x, the shares offer no margin of safety against cyclical wholesale downturns.4
Growth Investor
Avoid
While alternative asset fundraising is accelerating ($85B in 1H2026), regulatory capital requirements (CET1/SLR) constrain balance-sheet-intensive trading growth, capping long-term revenue CAGR at 2.5%.5
Income Investor
Hold
The dividend of $20.00 per share is well-supported by $17,176M in annual net income, but share repurchases remain subordinate to regulatory balance sheet constraints.5,7
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Bán
We recommend a Sell rating on The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as the share price of $949.49 on September 22, 2026 trades at a 44.9% premium to our Fair value of $655.45.4
While the firm benefits from cyclical tailwinds in wholesale dealmaking and an advisory backlog at a five-year high, the market fully discounts an optimistic earnings path while ignoring binding regulatory balance sheet constraints.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-09-23 · Published 2026-09-23 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figuresCited in Kịch bản tiêu cực, Khuyến nghị cuối cùng
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
The analyst's bear scenario path and multiple as the base case
Trigger
Within 12 months
Valuation de-rating driven by regulatory capital tightening and persistent ROE compression
Oscillating binding regulatory constraints across CET1 and SLR restrict balance sheet capacity, compressing long-term terminal P/E multiple below 10.4x, cutting fair value by 20%.4,5
FV impact
-17.5%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 24 months
Prolonged dealmaking downturn reducing medium-term revenue and EPS growth by 10 percentage points
Protracted freeze in M&A advisory and sponsor exits causes medium-term revenue growth in Global Banking and Markets to fall below 13.82% YoY, reducing fair value by 11.1%.8
FV impact
-9.7%
Revenue and EPS growth 10 points lower for five years
Macroeconomic stagflation and sticky interest rates drive the moderate cost of equity above 11.98% from the base 9.98%, eroding equity valuation by 14.4%.2
FV impact
-9.1%
Cost of capital 2 points higher
Trigger
Within 18 months
Full-year diluted EPS falling below the consensus low of $65.30 confirms underwriting volume contraction and activates the bear path.
Private market syndication and client asset distribution network — Alternative AUM reached $459B generating $725M in quarterly management fees, supported by record 1H2026 gross third-party fundraising of $85B and internal routing of private credit originations to wealth management clients.
Moderate
medium
12 to 36 months
Active balance-sheet management and pivoting origination into third-party managed funds rather than retaining assets on balance sheet.5
Limitation: Terminal value is 71.4% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Under the bull path with 20.0% probability, a multi-year global dealmaking boom drives underwriting fees above prior cyclical peaks, producing a target of $865.74 and a return of -8.8% from $949.49. This outcome requires surging corporate restructuring, robust sponsor monetization, and rapid market share gains in Asia. Disconfirmation would appear if market volatility interrupts debt syndication.
Inflows into private equity, private credit, and real assets generate recurring management fees without consuming bank regulatory balance sheet equity.
03
Chỉ số:
Common Equity Tier One and Supplementary Leverage Ratios
Hiện tạiManagement actively navigates oscillating regulatory binding constraints across capital and leverage rules.
Vì sao quan trọng
Regulatory capital ratios dictate balance sheet capacity for client market making and govern the volume of capital return via repurchases.