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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
JD — frequently asked questions
Is JD.com, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, JD looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 32,4 USD versus our fair value of 44,1 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 56,4 USD. That implies roughly 36.1% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives JD a fair value of 44,1 USD and a potential value of 56,4 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for JD.com, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy JD now?
Our latest published rating for JD, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Strong Buy. JD.com, Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 32,4 USD versus fair value of 44,1 USD; potential value is 56,4 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for JD?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents JD.com, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is JD's rating?
Our latest published rating for JD, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 44,1 USD, the potential value of 56,4 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (32,4 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyStrong Buy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$32.38
Giá trị hợp lý
$44.07
Giá trị tiềm năng
$56.43
Tính đến
Ngày báo giá chưa được ghi nhận
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Bull: Macroeconomic stimulus in China revives consumer spending, while JD's supply chain scale and 3P marketplace expansion yield significant operating leverage, driving earnings growth above 20%.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Compositefair value of $44.07 synthesizes strong FCF metrics with aggressive upside potential.
JD.com is a mature quality compounder with a highly defensible owned-logistics network. However, intense price competition from PDD and sluggish consumer demand in China restrict near-term growth and margin expansion, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple.
JD.com is a mature quality compounder with a highly defensible owned-logistics network. However, intense price competition from PDD and sluggish consumer demand in China restrict near-term growth and margin expansion, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple.
Owned-logistics network
Owned-logistics network
Supply chain scale
Supply chain scale
Bull thesis
Composite of $44.07 synthesizes strong metrics with aggressive upside potential.
JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses. The company provides home appliances; mobile handsets and other digital products; computers, including desktop, laptop, and other various products, as well as printers and other office equipment; furniture and household goods; apparel; cosmetics and other personal care items; and pet products. It offers women's shoes, bags, watches, jewelry, and luxury goods; men's shoes, sports gear, and fitness equipment; automobiles and accessories; maternal and childcare products; toys and musical instruments; food, beverages, and fresh produce; gifts, flowers, and plants; and pharmaceutical and healthcare products, such as OCT pharmaceutical products, nutritional supplements, healthcare services, and other healthcare equipment. In addition, the company provides books, e-books, music, movies, and other media products; virtual goods consisting of online travel agency, attraction tickets, and prepaid phone cards and game cards; industrial products; and installation and maintenance services. Further, it offers online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. Additionally, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; and offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services, as well as engages in online retail business; technology-driven supply chain solutions; and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
Persistent deflationary pressures and aggressive subsidization by rivals erode margins, causing revenue growth to stagnate and structural multiple compression.
Persistent deflationary pressures and aggressive subsidization by rivals erode JD's margins, causing revenue growth to stagnate and structural multiple compression, anchoring fair value near $31.76.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
PDD price war escalation
High
Aggressive subsidization from PDD permanently impairs JD's 1P retail margins.
FV impact
Downside to $31.76
Trigger
12-24 months
China macro stagnation
Medium
Persistent deflationary pressures and sluggish consumer demand prevent top-line recovery.
FV impact
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Operating unprofitability indicates that severe retail discounting and elevated overhead are overwhelming core retail scale, eliminating operating leverage and permanently reducing cash flow available for reinvestment in the supply chain.
Hiện tại:0.3% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếu< 0.0% across any full fiscal year
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
Owned-logistics network
Supply chain scale
Defensible 1P retail business
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($44.08). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Warning level: < 0.0% across any full fiscal year. Operating unprofitability indicates that severe retail discounting and elevated overhead are overwhelming core retail scale, eliminating operating leverage and permanently reducing cash flow available for reinvestment in the supply chain.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Doanh thu mới nhất1,3 NTCAGR doanh thu +7,8%
Biên hoạt động0,3%4 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất4,8 TFY2025
Tiền mặt ròng30,4 TFY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu1,3 NTGiá vốn doanh thu−1,1 NTLợi nhuận gộp210 TChi phí hoạt động−206,3 TLợi nhuận hoạt động3,7 TCác khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế+15,9 TLợi nhuận ròng19,6 T
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
1.309.085.000.000
Giá vốn doanh thu
1.099.057.000.000
Lợi nhuận gộp
210.028.000.000
Chi phí hoạt động
206.338.000.000
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
3.690.000.000
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
15.941.000.000
Lợi nhuận ròng
19.631.000.000
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-05-20.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2022-12-31
1 NT
23,2 T
10,4 T
57,8 T
34,9 T
22,9 T
7,2 T
7,5 T
1,8 T
13,1 T
11,8 T
—
—
—
—
78,9 T
65 T
1,8%
—
—
—
2023-12-31
1,1 NT
42,8 T
24,2 T
59,5 T
39,5 T
20 T
8,3 T
4,8 T
2,5 T
6,7 T
3,1 T
—
—
—
—
71,9 T
68,4 T
2,7%
—
—
—
2024-12-31
1,2 NT
63,3 T
41,4 T
58,1 T
44,3 T
13,8 T
8,9 T
3 T
25,9 T
8,3 T
14,4 T
—
—
—
—
108,4 T
89,8 T
3,4%
—
—
—
2025-12-31
1,3 NT
37,9 T
19,6 T
19 T
4,8 T
14,2 T
9,7 T
4,7 T
21,4 T
10,4 T
10,3 T
—
—
—
—
137,5 T
107,1 T
0,3%
—
—
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
JD.com, Inc.JD
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý44,07 US$Report-date price32,38 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư58 / 100
Amazon.com Inc.AMZN
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý183,76 US$Report-date price258,51 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư63 / 100
PDD Holdings Inc.PDD
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý265,33 US$Report-date price97,34 US$
Re-evaluate if operating margins compress sequentially or PDD price war accelerates beyond baseline assumptions.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Current / pullbacks
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Thesis break
Re-evaluate if operating margins compress sequentially or PDD price war accelerates beyond baseline assumptions.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Bull view
Buy
Compositefair value of $44.07 synthesizes strong FCF metrics with aggressive upside potential.
Base view
Buy
12x terminal multiple appropriately prices in structural China ADR risks.
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Mua mạnh
Strong Buy. JD is a mature quality compounder with a defensible logistics network. Current valuation of $32.38 provides a substantial margin of safety against the $44.07 base case.
Downside case: Compositefair value of $44.07 synthesizes strong FCF metrics with aggressive upside potential.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Severe price competition and aggressive merchant subsidization to defend market share erode product markups, destroying the direct retail profitability that underpins returns on heavy logistics and infrastructure investments.
Hiện tại:16.0% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếu< 14.0% over any trailing twelve months
Stagnating top-line expansion demonstrates saturated e-commerce penetration and successful competitor encroachment, preventing the business from achieving necessary volume growth to spread fixed fulfillment overhead across a wider revenue base.
Falling cash generation relative to accounting profits signals mounting working capital friction and rising logistical expenses that restrict free cash flow generation needed to maintain proprietary supply chain infrastructure.
Hiện tại:0.967 as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếu< 0.80 over any trailing twelve-month period
Widespread consumer pullback and deflationary retail discounting compress bottom-line earnings, removing the safety buffer against macroeconomic headwinds and undermining long-term shareholder capital returns.
Hiện tại:1.5% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếu< 0.5% over any fiscal year
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
JD.com operates as a mature quality compounder with defensible logistics. Intense price competition and sluggish demand restrict near-term growth, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple of 12x.
Warning level: < 14.0% over any trailing twelve months. Severe price competition and aggressive merchant subsidization to defend market share erode product markups, destroying the direct retail profitability that underpins returns on heavy logistics and infrastructure investments.
Warning level: < 3.0% over any fiscal year. Stagnating top-line expansion demonstrates saturated e-commerce penetration and successful competitor encroachment, preventing the business from achieving necessary volume growth to spread fixed fulfillment overhead across a wider revenue base.
Warning level: < 0.80 over any trailing twelve-month period. Falling cash generation relative to accounting profits signals mounting working capital friction and rising logistical expenses that restrict free cash flow generation needed to maintain proprietary supply chain infrastructure.
Warning level: < 0.5% over any fiscal year. Widespread consumer pullback and deflationary retail discounting compress bottom-line earnings, removing the safety buffer against macroeconomic headwinds and undermining long-term shareholder capital returns.
DoorDash Inc.DASH
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý142,82 US$Report-date price162,67 US$
