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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
JKHY — frequently asked questions
Is Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-20, JKHY looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 155 USD versus our fair value of 184 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 255 USD. That implies roughly 18.6% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20, gives JKHY a fair value of 184 USD and a potential value of 255 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy JKHY now?
Our latest published rating for JKHY, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Buy. Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 155 USD versus fair value of 184 USD; potential value is 255 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for JKHY?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-20 documents Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is JKHY's rating?
Our latest published rating for JKHY, analyzed 2026-09-20, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 184 USD, the potential value of 255 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (155 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyBuy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$154.85
Giá trị hợp lý
$183.66
Giá trị tiềm năng
$254.92
Tính đến
2026-09-18
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Accelerated cross-selling of payments processing ($936,006,000 in FY2026) and complementary digital banking modules ($752,214,000), combined with over 20 new AI capability launches and replacement core win momentum targeting 58 to 65 institutions, driving non-GAAP revenue growth toward the top of the 6.3% to 7.3% guidance range and expanding operating margins toward 26.0%.
We rate Jack Henry & Associates Buy with a Fair value of $183.66, offering 18.61% upside from the analysis date price of $154.85, supported by mission-critical core banking software and expanding payments processing.
We assign Jack Henry & Associates a Buy rating. For an ordinary investor, this indicates that the company offers an attractive risk-adjusted total return profile, supported by defensive recurring cash flows and compounding earnings power across community financial institutions.
As of September 18, 2026, Jack Henry traded at $154.85 per share. This price represents an 18.61% discount to our Fair value estimate of $183.66 and stands well below our Potential value estimate of $254.92, which reflects extended cross-selling adoption and multi-product margin expansion.
The primary risk that would challenge this constructive outlook is an acceleration in community bank mergers and acquisitions that terminates client charters, driving deconversion fees well above the guided $23.0M while eroding the recurring core revenue base ($768,452,000 in FY2026). If this risk materializes, investors would observe core account attrition rates rising above 1.5% and deconversion revenue becoming an increasingly volatile portion of quarterly earnings.5,8
The principal operational driver supporting our thesis is the expansion of digital payments ($936,006,000 in FY2026) and complementary software modules ($752,214,000 in FY2026), which together accounted for 66.4% of total revenue. By cross-selling digital banking, fraud detection, and new artificial intelligence tools to its deeply entrenched core customer base, Jack Henry can maintain 5.5% to 6.5% consolidated GAAP revenue growth, achieve 20 to 40 basis points of annual operating margin expansion, and convert 85% to 100% of earnings into free cash flow, driving steady per-share equity value creation.5,8
Mission-Critical Switching Costs in Core Banking
Jack Henry's core processing platforms anchor $768,452,000 in recurring revenue, where high migration risks and operational integration yield customer retention rates above 95%.8
Payments and Complementary Cross-Selling Momentum
Payments ($936,006,000 in FY2026) and Complementary solutions ($752,214,000) represent two-thirds of sales, driving organic non-GAAP growth guided at 6.3% to 7.3%.5,8
With FY2026 free cash flow of $694,857,000 on CapEx of $67,103,000 and modest debt of $77,821,000, Jack Henry converts 85% to 100% of net income to free cash flow to fund disciplined share buybacks.4,5,6,7
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Buy: Jack Henry combines mission-critical core banking software switching costs and expanding digital payments processing to deliver resilient mid-single-digit compounding and strong cash flow generation.
Tổng quan công ty
JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES, INC. provides products and services primarily to community and regional banks and credit unions (see "Its Industry" below):
The Company’s operations are classified into four reportable segments: Core, Payments, Complementary, and Corporate Services (formerly “Corporate and Other”). The Core segment provides core information processing platforms to banks and credit unions, which consist of integrated applications required to process deposit, loan, and general ledger transactions, and maintain centralized accountholder information. The Company’s operations are classified into four reportable segments: Core, Payments, Complementary, and Corporate Services. Prior to the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Corporate Services was referred to as Corporate and Other.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
Under a stressed operating environment where community bank M&A eliminates client charters and persistent technology costs compress operating margins to 22.0%, Jack Henry's capital-light model and negligible leverage provide substantial balance-sheet defense. With total debt of only $77,821,000, representing a 0.71% debt weight, and robust free cash flow generation of $694,857,000 on capex of $67,103,000,, the company faces zero solvency strain. Solvency buffers ensure that even if top-line revenue growth drops to 1.5% and multiples derate toward peer parity, operating cash flow ($761,960,000 in FY2026) remains fully sufficient to cover ongoing capital investments and dividend commitments.
Deconversion drag exceeds guided levels as bank M&A accelerates5
Core revenue growth decelerates due to fewer available credit union opportunities5
Operating margins contract as Project Glasswing and AI compute costs persist5
Downside scenario where heightened community bank consolidation eliminates client charters, driving deconversion fees well above initial guidance and contracting recurring revenue growth, while ongoing cybersecurity and AI infrastructure outlays compress operating margins.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Severe Community Bank Consolidation and Core Account Attrition
Accelerated M&A among community banks eliminates client charters, driving deconversion fees well beyond the guided $23M and shrinking recurring core revenue ($768,452,000 in FY2026) below historical levels as credit union opportunities dry up.5,8
FV impact
-7.2%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 12 months
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Hiện tại:6.97% 5-year CAGR ($2,544,339,000 FY2026 revenue)
Cảnh báo nếuBelow 4.0% YoY
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Wide
Jack Henry & Associates possesses a Wide economic moat anchored by high customer switching costs and an expansive multi-product software ecosystem tailored to regional and community financial institutions. Core banking software forms the operational nervous system for financial institutions, managing mission-critical daily workflows including general ledger maintenance, loan servicing, and customer deposit accounting. Replacing an installed core platform entails immense operational risk, substantial financial capital, multi-year migration timelines, and potential regulatory scrutiny, resulting in retention rates exceeding 95% and predictable long-term contract renewals.
The defensibility of Jack Henry's moat is further reinforced by its software integration across complementary modules and transaction processing. The Payments segment ($936,006,000 in FY2026) and Complementary solutions ($752,214,000 in FY2026) collectively account for over 66% of consolidated revenues ($2,544,339,000 in FY2026). Once a financial institution embeds Jack Henry's digital banking, risk mitigation, and card processing capabilities into its daily operations, the friction and cost of unwinding the multi-product relationship become practically prohibitive.
While horizontal information processing peers like Broadridge Financial Solutions dominate Tier-1 institutional brokerage communications ($21.7B EV and 24.61% operating margin,), Jack Henry's dedicated focus on small-to-midsize community lenders shields its core client franchise from direct competitive disruption. This entrenched positioning underwrites durable economic returns, evidenced by a 23.16% ROIC that comfortably outpaces the company's 7.88% WACC.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Jack Henry generates an economic return on invested capital (ROIC) of 23.16%, comfortably exceeding its moderate cost of equity of 7.91% and computed WACC of 7.88%, demonstrating substantial economic value creation underpinned by entrenched switching costs.2
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01High Switching Costs in Core Banking Platforms — Core banking software serves as the central operational backbone for deposit accounting, general ledger, and transaction clearing across community financial institutions, generating $768,452,000 in FY2026 revenue. Multi-year core migrations involve substantial implementation costs, operational disruption risk, and regulatory scrutiny, producing client retention rates exceeding 95%.Wide
02Software Integration and Multi-Product Ecosystem Breadth — Deep integration of payments processing ($936,006,000 in FY2026) and complementary digital banking modules ($752,214,000 in FY2026) creates a unified operational stack, raising total relationship switching barriers and driving over 66% of total company revenues.Wide
03
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Acceleration in Community Bank M&A Consolidation
medium
12 to 24 months
Contractual multi-year deconversion termination fee payments ($23M expected in FY2027) and winning new replacement charters (58 to 65 core wins guided).5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($183.66). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $636.2M after modeled capex of $67.1M, with terminal value at 63.9% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Modal expected case where Jack Henry compounds top-line revenue within guided expectations, driven by steady core renewals, expanding payments volume, and annual operating margin expansion supported by core replacement wins within the target range.
Elevated client attrition from bank mergers or persistent infrastructure cost inflation would impair recurring revenue visibility and depress return on capital.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Earnings quality is robust, characterized by GAAP-aligned reporting, minimal reliance on capitalization of software research expenses, and high recurring contract cash flows. Operating income of $635,033,000 converts cleanly into $761,960,000 of operating cash flow, with low customer credit default risk across regulated financial institution counterparties.7
Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố
01
Chỉ số:
Annual Core Platform Wins
Hiện tạiManagement guided 58 to 65 core wins for the fiscal year.
Vì sao quan trọng
Validates competitive share gains against legacy core banking providers and replaces accounts lost to bank consolidation.
Jack Henry exhibits exceptional cash generation characteristics. In FY2026, the company generated $761,960,000 in cash flow from operations against capital expenditures of $67,103,000, yielding free cash flow of $694,857,000. This represents a free cash flow margin of 27.3% on consolidated FY2026 revenue of $2,544,339,000. Management guided free cash flow conversion of 85% to 100% of net income for FY2027, reflecting an asset-light recurring software model with working capital stability.5,6,7
The wide spread between ROIC and cost of capital reflects deep pricing power and high customer retention in mission-critical core banking software, indicating durable economic moat strength and exceptional shareholder value creation.
Jack Henry generates an economic ROIC of 23.16%, substantially exceeding its computed WACC of 7.88% and moderate cost of equity of 7.91% by over 1,500 bps.
Revenue Expansion Driven by Payments and Complementary Solutions
Payments ($936,006,000) and Complementary solutions ($752,214,000) contributed 66.4% of consolidated FY2026 revenue ($2,544,339,000).
Doanh thu mới nhất2,5 T US$CAGR doanh thu +7,0%
Biên hoạt động25,0%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất694,9 Tr US$FY2026
Nợ ròng27,9 Tr US$FY2026
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu2,5 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−1,5 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp1,1 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−441,3 Tr US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động635 Tr US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−132,3 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng502,8 Tr US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
2.544.339.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
1.468.029.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
1.076.310.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
441.277.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
635.033.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-132.257.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
502.776.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản3,1 T US$Tiền mặt12,1 Tr US$Tài sản ngắn hạn649,1 Tr US$Tổng nợ phải trả1,1 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn556,2 Tr US$Vốn chủ sở hữu2,1 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
3.145.711.000 US$
Tiền mặt
12.056.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
649.095.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
1.093.762.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
556.239.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
2.051.949.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng502,8 Tr US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+213,2 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+32,5 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác+13,5 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động762 Tr US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ102 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+762 Tr US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−277,7 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−574,1 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ12,1 Tr US$
762 Tr US$ − 67,1 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 694,9 Tr US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
502.776.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
761.960.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
213.241.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
32.460.000 US$
Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác
13.483.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
761.960.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
863.913.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
101.953.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
277.738.000 US$
Capex
67.103.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
210.635.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
574.119.000 US$
Phát hành nợ ròng
40.000.000 US$
Mua lại cổ phiếu
448.173.000 US$
Cổ tức đã trả
170.405.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
12.056.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-277.738.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-574.119.000 US$
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2026-06-30.
2,5 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng
Payments936 Tr US$36,8%+7,2% so với cùng kỳ
Core768,5 Tr US$30,2%+4,8% so với cùng kỳ
Complementary752,2 Tr US$29,6%+8,3% so với cùng kỳ
Corporate Services87,7 Tr US$3,4%+18,3% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-08-28 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Payments
936 Tr US$
36,8%
7,2%
Core
768,5 Tr US$
30,2%
4,8%
Complementary
752,2 Tr US$
29,6%
8,3%
Corporate Services
87,7 Tr US$
3,4%
18,3%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-09-20.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2017-06-30
1,4 T US$
507,7 Tr US$
229,6 Tr US$
357,3 Tr US$
315,4 Tr US$
41,9 Tr US$
139,8 Tr US$
11,1 Tr US$
130,1 Tr US$
91,7 Tr US$
—
-141,6 Tr US$
-171,3 Tr US$
—
114,8 Tr US$
114,8 Tr US$
260,2 Tr US$
24,6%
—
5,6%
—
2018-06-30
1,5 T US$
604,4 Tr US$
365 Tr US$
412,1 Tr US$
372 Tr US$
40,1 Tr US$
246,3 Tr US$
11,8 Tr US$
49 Tr US$
105 Tr US$
—
-291,8 Tr US$
-203,6 Tr US$
114,8 Tr US$
31,4 Tr US$
-103,3 Tr US$
0 US$
24,3%
—
6,4%
—
2019-06-30
1,6 T US$
619,7 Tr US$
271,9 Tr US$
431,1 Tr US$
377,5 Tr US$
53,6 Tr US$
271,5 Tr US$
12,6 Tr US$
54,9 Tr US$
118,7 Tr US$
—
-190,6 Tr US$
-178,3 Tr US$
31,4 Tr US$
93,6 Tr US$
-179 Tr US$
0 US$
22,4%
—
5,8%
—
2020-06-30
1,7 T US$
553,6 Tr US$
296,7 Tr US$
510,5 Tr US$
457 Tr US$
53,5 Tr US$
171,8 Tr US$
16,9 Tr US$
71,5 Tr US$
127,4 Tr US$
—
-197,9 Tr US$
-192,9 Tr US$
93,6 Tr US$
213,3 Tr US$
-90,9 Tr US$
531 N US$
22,4%
—
3,3%
—
2021-06-30
1,8 T US$
696,8 Tr US$
311,5 Tr US$
462,1 Tr US$
439,1 Tr US$
23 Tr US$
175,7 Tr US$
20,7 Tr US$
431,5 Tr US$
133,8 Tr US$
—
-162,3 Tr US$
-462,2 Tr US$
213,3 Tr US$
51 Tr US$
-275,9 Tr US$
115,1 Tr US$
22,7%
—
3,9%
—
2022-06-30
1,9 T US$
652,3 Tr US$
362,9 Tr US$
504,6 Tr US$
470 Tr US$
34,7 Tr US$
177,6 Tr US$
24,8 Tr US$
193,9 Tr US$
139,1 Tr US$
14,9 Tr US$
-196,3 Tr US$
-310,5 Tr US$
51 Tr US$
48,8 Tr US$
48,8 Tr US$
115 Tr US$
24,4%
—
5,4%
—
2023-06-30
2,1 T US$
680,4 Tr US$
366,6 Tr US$
381,6 Tr US$
342,4 Tr US$
39,2 Tr US$
190,7 Tr US$
28,6 Tr US$
25 Tr US$
147,2 Tr US$
159,9 Tr US$
-409,7 Tr US$
-8,4 Tr US$
48,8 Tr US$
12,2 Tr US$
12,2 Tr US$
275 Tr US$
23,1%
—
6,4%
—
2024-06-30
2,2 T US$
714,3 Tr US$
381,8 Tr US$
568 Tr US$
509,9 Tr US$
58,1 Tr US$
199,9 Tr US$
28,9 Tr US$
28,1 Tr US$
155,9 Tr US$
-125 Tr US$
-240,2 Tr US$
-301,8 Tr US$
12,2 Tr US$
38,3 Tr US$
38,3 Tr US$
60 Tr US$
22,1%
—
6,8%
—
2025-06-30
2,4 T US$
801,2 Tr US$
455,7 Tr US$
641,5 Tr US$
588,1 Tr US$
53,4 Tr US$
204,8 Tr US$
28,4 Tr US$
35,1 Tr US$
164,6 Tr US$
-150 Tr US$
-232,2 Tr US$
-345,7 Tr US$
38,3 Tr US$
102 Tr US$
102 Tr US$
0 US$
23,9%
—
7,0%
—
2026-06-30
2,5 T US$
819,5 Tr US$
502,8 Tr US$
762 Tr US$
694,9 Tr US$
67,1 Tr US$
213,2 Tr US$
32,5 Tr US$
448,2 Tr US$
170,4 Tr US$
40 Tr US$
-277,7 Tr US$
-574,1 Tr US$
102 Tr US$
12,1 Tr US$
12,1 Tr US$
40 Tr US$
25,0%
—
7,0%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.JKHY
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý183,66 US$Report-date price154,85 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư72 / 100
Gartner, Inc.IT
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý213,73 US$Report-date price185,78 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư62 / 100
GoDaddy Inc.GDDY
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý138,82 US$Report-date price97,46 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư64 / 100
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.JKHY
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý183,66 US$Report-date price154,85 US$
Jack Henry & Associates Inc. (JKHY) trades at 21.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 10.7x. Its EV/EBITDA of 15.6x compares with a peer median of 10.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Gartner Inc., GoDaddy Inc., Leidos Holdings Inc. and Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc., as of 2026-09-20.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Industry capex-to-revenue ratio of -2.9% and capex-to-depreciation ratio of 0.35 indicate restrained capital deployment across financial technology and information processing services. Company capex remained low at $67,103,000 on $2,544,339,000 of revenue in FY2026,.7
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Expanding digital transaction volumes, adoption of modern cloud-native banking modules, and community bank IT modernization budgets drive mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth with incremental operating leverage.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
Accelerating bank merger activity permanently reduces the population of independent community bank charters, while heightened regulatory compliance and AI compute infrastructure expenses squeeze operating margins.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Digital Banking and Real-Time Payments Modernization
positive
Community financial institutions are expanding digital payments and cloud core capabilities to compete with Tier-1 money-center banks, driving sustained adoption of payments processing ($936,006,000 in FY2026) and complementary modules ($752,214,000 in FY2026).
Community Bank M&A Consolidation
negative
Regulatory burdens and scale imperatives drive ongoing bank mergers, eliminating independent client charters and triggering contract deconversion events ($23M guided for FY2027).
Định vị
Jack Henry maintains a defensible leadership position as a specialized core processing and payments provider focused specifically on regional community banks and credit unions with under $50B in assets, avoiding direct head-to-head conflict with Tier-1 institutional providers while capturing high-margin cross-sell opportunities.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
3-5%
Consistent with a mature compounder archetype exhibiting wide moat switching costs, low financial leverage, and predictable cash flow generation.
Rủi ro
Monitor banking consolidation trends through regulatory filings, track customer concentration, and manage sector exposure to maintain balanced portfolio risk.
Jack Henry offers durable 5% to 7% recurring revenue compounding anchored by core banking software ($768,452,000 in FY2026) and payments cross-selling ($936,006,000), with organic non-GAAP growth guided to 6.3% to 7.3%.5,8
Defensive / Quality
Buy
Prohibitive switching costs, client retention exceeding 95%, and robust balance sheet strength with total debt of just $77,821,000 insulate cash flows against macro volatility and banking sector stress.4
Total Return / Valuation
Buy
Trading at 21.05x forward P/E against consensus FY2028 EPS of $7.83, the shares offer 18.61% upside to our intrinsic Fair value of $183.66, backed by exceptional free cash flow conversion of 85% to 100%.1,4,5
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Mua
Jack Henry & Associates warrants a Buy rating based on its entrenched switching-cost moat in regional banking software ($768,452,000 core revenue), expanding payments volume ($936,006,000), and disciplined cash generation ($694,857,000 FCF) that supports 18.61% upside to our Fair value estimate of $183.66.6,8
Investors should capitalize on current trading levels ($154.85) to accumulate shares, recognizing that temporary Q1 margin tightening from conference timing shifts and frontier model AI security investments create an attractive entry point before full-year operating leverage manifests.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-09-20 · Published 2026-09-20 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figuresCited in Quan điểm nhà đầu tư
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
JKHY's forward P/E of 21.05x derates toward peer Broadridge's 14.09x forward P/E and peer group median of 10.69x as growth slows into mid-single digits and PEG premium of 1.89x collapses.3,4
FV impact
-3.9%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Margin Squeeze from AI Infrastructure and Security Investments
Persistent infrastructure and cybersecurity costs for frontier model deployment (Project Glasswing) and AI compute FinOps expenses contract operating margin 300 bps below reported FY2026 operating margin of 24.96%.5,7
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 24 months
Cost of Capital Expansion in Higher-for-Longer Environment
Rising risk-free yields above 4.94% combined with beta expansion toward the sector beta of 0.92 increases computed WACC from 7.88% and moderate Ke from 7.91% by over 100 bps.2
Decelerating competitive displacement and drying up of credit union opportunities, weakening new client expansion.
Hiện tại:58 to 65 guided institutions
Cảnh báo nếuBelow 45 institutions annually
Targeted Distribution and Regulatory Compliance in Regional Banking
— Specialization in community banks and credit unions with under $50B in assets insulates Jack Henry from direct displacement by Tier-1 enterprise processing providers such as Broadridge, enabling durable pricing discipline and customer retention.
Moderate
Disintermediation from Alternative Payment Rails and Digital Wallets
low
24 to 36 months
Active direct integration with modern RTP and FedNow instant payment networks, offering white-label digital payment capabilities directly to community bank depositors.8
Limitation: Terminal value is 67% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 64.6% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Limitation: Terminal value is 63.9% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Operating margins expand toward 26.3% as AI product monetization scales5
Upside thesis materializes as digital payments volume accelerates, client cross-sell of newly released AI tools expands complementary software attach rates, and core replacement wins exceed the guided range, driving high-single-digit revenue growth and operating margin expansion.
Capital allocation is disciplined and shareholder-friendly. Supported by a pristine balance sheet featuring $12,056,000 in cash and only $77,821,000 in total debt, Jack Henry returns excess capital through recurring dividends and opportunistic share repurchases. Share repurchases have steadily reduced diluted average shares from 73,025,000 in FY2024 to 72,043,000 in FY2026,, amplifying per-share earnings growth.
Growth is increasingly driven by higher-velocity transaction processing and module cross-selling rather than baseline core system replacements alone.
Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion on Capital-Light Model
High cash conversion of 85% to 100% of net income enables steady share buybacks and dividend growth with negligible debt dependency.
Operating Leverage Partially Dampened by Near-Term AI and Security Outlays
Reported operating income of $635,033,000 in FY2026 yielded a 24.96% operating margin, while management guided 20 to 40 bps of expansion for FY2027 due to Project Glasswing and AI infrastructure investments.
Underlying scale efficiencies are partially offset by deliberate technology investments that solidify cybersecurity and platform competitiveness.
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.BR
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý184,36 US$Report-date price165,45 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư71 / 100
Biên
JKHY
Jack Henry & Associates Inc.
$10.9B
21.1x
4.3x
15.6x
24.0%
—
IT
Gartner Inc.
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11.4x
1.8x
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113.6%
22.6%
GDDY
GoDaddy Inc.
$12.3B
8.8x
2.4x
12.0x
398.2%
24.7%
LDOS
Leidos Holdings Inc.
$16.1B
10.0x
0.9x
9.2x
27.8%
11.7%
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc.
$18.9B
14.1x
2.5x
12.0x
40.9%
24.6%
Embedded Artificial Intelligence and Automation
positive
Deployment of embedded AI tools (more than 20 product capabilities planned) enhances software functionality and back-office efficiency for community banks, increasing software attach rates.
Exceeding $35 million annualized
Review community bank M&A impact and assess net account attrition.
