LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $133, high $237, with mid-point at $183.
Stock analysis
Lam Research CorporationLRCX Lam Research Corporation fair value $183–$237
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$183
Margin of safety
-60.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$295.16Price
FV $183.48
High $237.3
LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Intangible Assets
Intangible Assets
Switching Costs
Switching Costs
Bull thesis
Consensus target of $310.47 relies on ungrounded perpetual multiple expansion.
Based on our latest analysis, LRCX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $295 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $183 (range $133–$237), which implies roughly 37.8% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for LRCX is $133–$237, with a midpoint of $183. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Lam Research Corporation's archetype.
Our current rating for LRCX is Sell with a confidence score of 87/100. LRCX is rated Sell at $295.16 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $183.48, implying -37.84% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Lam Research Corporation are: Prolonged Memory Downturn; Severe Export Controls; Advanced Packaging Share Loss. The single biggest risk is Prolonged Memory Downturn: Extended reduction in NAND and DRAM capex significantly depresses equipment sales and margins beyond modeled downcycle parameters.
Our current rating for LRCX is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 87/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($133–$237) versus the current price of $295.
Lam Research Corporation is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for LRCX.
