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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
LULU — frequently asked questions
Is Lululemon Athletica Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-19, LULU looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 119 USD versus our fair value of 228 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 282 USD. That implies roughly 91.7% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-19, gives LULU a fair value of 228 USD and a potential value of 282 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Lululemon Athletica Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy LULU now?
Our latest published rating for LULU, analyzed 2026-05-19, is Strong Buy. Lululemon Athletica Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 119 USD versus fair value of 228 USD; potential value is 282 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for LULU?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-19 documents Lululemon Athletica Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is LULU's rating?
Our latest published rating for LULU, analyzed 2026-05-19, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 228 USD, the potential value of 282 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (119 USD).
Lululemon remains a high-quality compounder with exceptional ROIC (25.8%) and solid operating margins (20%+). However, a near-term growth digestion phase—evidenced by expected negative EPS growth in the current year—requires anchoring revenue and earnings to realistic lower-single digit growth paths before assuming trend stabilization.
Lululemon remains a high-quality compounder with exceptional ROIC (25.8%) and solid operating margins (20%+). However, a near-term growth digestion phase—evidenced by expected negative in the current year—requires anchoring and earnings to realistic lower-single digit growth paths before assuming trend stabilization.
Consumer demand for premium athleisure remains structurally robust, and international market penetration accelerates rapidly.
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Strong Buy, driven by the extreme dislocation between current implied expectations and the reality of a temporary earnings digestion phase.
Tổng quan công ty
lululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, and internationally. It offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. The company also provides fitness-inspired accessories. It sells its products through company-operated stores; seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios; outlets; Like New, a re-commerce program; and its e-commerce website. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
A severe recession combined with an accelerated shift in athleisure trends could force elevated markdowns, permanently impairing gross margins and compressing ROIC toward the cost of capital.
Increased competition and a highly promotional environment permanently decelerate top-line growth and compress valuation multiples to low-teens P/E levels.
Structural degradation in gross margin would demonstrate that brand pricing power is eroding against rising premium competitors, forcing aggressive markdown discounting and permanently damaging long-term unit economics.
Hiện tại:56.6% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Cảnh báo nếuDeclining below 50.0% over a 12-month period
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($228.48). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
If near-term EPSguidance misses but gross margins hold firm, continue accumulating. If gross margins severely break down, reassess the long-term structural moat conviction.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Hold
Kích hoạt: In-line results
If near-term EPSguidance misses but gross margins hold firm, continue accumulating. If gross margins severely break down, reassess the long-term structural moat conviction.
Hụt
Reassess
Kích hoạt: Downside surprise
If near-term EPSguidance misses but gross margins hold firm, continue accumulating. If gross margins severely break down, reassess the long-term structural moat conviction.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
If near-term EPSguidance misses but gross margins hold firm, continue accumulating. If gross margins severely break down, reassess the long-term structural moat conviction.
Warning level: Declining below 50.0% over a 12-month period. Structural degradation in gross margin would demonstrate that brand pricing power is eroding against rising premium competitors, forcing aggressive markdown discounting and permanently damaging long-term unit economics.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Doanh thu mới nhất11,1 TCAGR doanh thu +15,4%
Biên hoạt động19,9%5 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất921,7 TrFY2026
Tiền mặt ròng8,8 TrFY2026
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu11,1 TGiá vốn doanh thu−4,8 TLợi nhuận gộp6,3 TChi phí hoạt động−4,1 TLợi nhuận hoạt động2,2 TCác khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−631,4 TrLợi nhuận ròng1,6 T
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
11.102.600.000
Giá vốn doanh thu
4.818.468.000
Lợi nhuận gộp
6.284.132.000
Chi phí hoạt động
4.073.517.000
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
2.210.615.000
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-631.432.000
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.579.183.000
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản8,5 TTiền mặt1,8 TTài sản ngắn hạn4,3 TTổng nợ phải trả3,5 TNợ ngắn hạn1,9 TVốn chủ sở hữu5 T
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
8.456.743.000
Tiền mặt
1.807.202.000
Tài sản ngắn hạn
4.262.701.000
Tổng nợ phải trả
3.494.903.000
Nợ ngắn hạn
1.887.548.000
Vốn chủ sở hữu
4.961.840.000
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-05-19.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2022-01-31
6,3 T
1,6 T
975,3 Tr
1,4 T
994,6 Tr
394,5 Tr
224,2 Tr
69,1 Tr
812,6 Tr
—
—
—
—
—
—
1,3 T
881,1 Tr
22,0%
—
7,2%
—
2023-01-31
8,1 T
2 T
854,8 Tr
966,5 Tr
327,8 Tr
638,7 Tr
291,8 Tr
78,1 Tr
444 Tr
—
—
—
—
—
—
1,2 T
1,1 T
21,3%
—
9,1%
—
2024-01-31
9,6 T
2,6 T
1,6 T
2,3 T
1,6 T
651,9 Tr
379,4 Tr
93,6 Tr
558,7 Tr
—
—
—
—
—
—
2,2 T
1,4 T
22,9%
—
9,4%
—
2025-01-31
10,6 T
3 T
1,8 T
2,3 T
1,6 T
689,2 Tr
446,5 Tr
90 Tr
1,6 T
—
—
—
—
—
—
2 T
1,6 T
23,7%
—
9,8%
—
2026-01-31
11,1 T
2,7 T
1,6 T
1,6 T
921,7 Tr
680,8 Tr
496,2 Tr
62,2 Tr
1,2 T
—
—
—
—
—
—
1,8 T
1,8 T
19,9%
—
—
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý228,48 US$Report-date price119,22 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư68 / 100
The TJX Companies, Inc.TJX
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý112,24 US$Report-date price130,06 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư67 / 100
Ross Stores, Inc.ROST
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý158,93 US$Report-date price217,71 US$
Ngày đánh giá
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Bảng điểm đầu tư62 / 100
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý228,48 US$Report-date price119,22 US$
LULU trades at 9.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 26.5x; EV/EBITDA of 5.1x against a peer median of 20.6x; 6 peers.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Normal capex phase with disciplined reinvestment, returning capital primarily through aggressive share repurchases.
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Consumer demand for premium athleisure remains structurally robust, and international market penetration accelerates rapidly.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
A highly promotional retail environment erodes premium pricing power, and consumer wallet share shifts away from apparel.
Định vị
Normal capex phase with disciplined reinvestment, returning capital primarily through aggressive share repurchases.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
Appropriate for a core allocation given the extreme dislocation between the 25.8% ROIC and the market's implied -4.5% perpetual growth rate.
Rủi ro
Trim sizing if the multiple approaches the high-end calibrated 25x, or if gross margins structurally decay below 50% for three consecutive quarters.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Current / pullbacks
Immediate entry at current levels ($119.22), dynamically accumulating below $150.
Immediate entry at current levels ($119.22), dynamically accumulating below $150.
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Thesis break
Trim sizing if the multiple approaches the high-end calibrated 25x, or if gross margins structurally decay below 50% for three consecutive quarters.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Bull view
Buy
Strong Buy. The current valuation embeds unprecedented macro pessimism that wholly ignores the company's elite compounding history and highly resilient balance sheet.
Strong Buy. The current valuation embeds unprecedented macro pessimism that wholly ignores the company's elite compounding history and highly resilient balance sheet.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
China expansion falters due to geopolitical friction or domestic preference, permanently removing the primary long-term growth engine from the terminal valuation.
FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
24-36 months
Macro Demand Shock
Low
Prolonged consumer discretionary weakness stalls the men's category growth and causes consecutive quarters of negative comparable store sales in North America.
A severe drop in sales momentum would suggest brand fatigue in core product categories, exacerbating inventory imbalances and requiring deep promotional clearances that compress overall retail earnings.
Hiện tại:4.9% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Cảnh báo nếuDecelerating below 2.0% over a 12-month period
Operating margin contraction would confirm that direct channel conversion softness and fixed retail store overhead are outpacing store productivity, eliminating the operating leverage underpinning premium valuation multiples.
Hiện tại:19.9% for the period ended 2026-01-31
Cảnh báo nếuCompressing below 16.0% over a 12-month period
Diminishing capital returns would indicate that store footprint additions and international retail expansions are generating lower economic yields, undermining management's reinvestment thesis and long-term moat durability.
Hiện tại:25.8% as of the report's 2026-05-19 analysis date
Cảnh báo nếuDeclining below 18.0% over a 12-month period
Failure to convert net accounting income into operational cash would reflect severe working capital misallocations and inventory bloat, restricting capital availability for share buybacks and store growth.
Hiện tại:1.015 as of the report's 2026-05-19 analysis date
Cảnh báo nếuFalling below 0.85x over a 12-month period
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Fashion and category substitution risk
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Warning level: Decelerating below 2.0% over a 12-month period. A severe drop in sales momentum would suggest brand fatigue in core product categories, exacerbating inventory imbalances and requiring deep promotional clearances that compress overall retail earnings.
Warning level: Compressing below 16.0% over a 12-month period. Operating margin contraction would confirm that direct channel conversion softness and fixed retail store overhead are outpacing store productivity, eliminating the operating leverage underpinning premium valuation multiples.
Hiện tại25.8% as of the report's 2026-05-19 analysis date
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Declining below 18.0% over a 12-month period. Diminishing capital returns would indicate that store footprint additions and international retail expansions are generating lower economic yields, undermining management's reinvestment thesis and long-term moat durability.
Hiện tại1.015 as of the report's 2026-05-19 analysis date
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Falling below 0.85x over a 12-month period. Failure to convert net accounting income into operational cash would reflect severe working capital misallocations and inventory bloat, restricting capital availability for share buybacks and store growth.
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Ngày đánh giá
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