Phân tích sản phẩm tùy chọn
Khi được bạn cho phép, chúng tôi sử dụng phân tích giới hạn, chú trọng quyền riêng tư để hiểu hành trình nghiên cứu nào hiệu quả. Chúng tôi không dùng trình theo dõi quảng cáo hoặc ghi lại phiên. Bạn có thể thay đổi lựa chọn này trong Tùy chọn. Đọc Chính sách quyền riêng tư.
International and services growth could extend the earnings runway.
International Markets revenue growth falls below 6% in FY2028.
Hold. The report was prepared at $579.21, below Fair value of $621.75 and Potential value of $782.35.3
The main risk is slower international growth after FY2027. A breach of the FY2028 growth floor would shorten the earnings runway and reduce what investors pay for future profit.
International scale and a material services line could extend revenue growth. FY2025 free cash flow and low capex provide distribution capacity, while higher still require diluted shares to keep falling.
Payment Network revenue reached $19.48 billion in FY2025, showing substantial coordination across both sides of the payment system.5
Services generated $13.32 billion in FY2025, but product revenue alone does not establish contract duration, retention, or replacement costs.5
A close global network competitor exists, while the other selected peers use materially different processing, lending, or banking models.
Hold because supported upside remains visible, but post-FY2027 growth duration needs further operating proof.
Services and other solutions. Its services and other solutions, which are interdependent with its payment network, drive value for its customers and the broader payments ecosystem. Mastercard Incorporated offers security solutions, consumer acquisition and engagement, business and market insights, digital and authentication, processing and gateway and other solutions (including ACH batch and real-time account-based payments and solutions and open finance).
Mastercard Incorporated provides a wide variety of products and services that support payment products that customers can offer to consumers and merchants to enable purchase transactions, cash withdrawals and cash advances. These offerings facilitate transactions across its payment network and platforms among account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments and other organizations in markets globally.
Growth-duration, margin, repurchase, and required-return stresses are standalone outcomes and should not be added together.
This path would shorten earnings growth, weaken per-share compounding, and cause investors to pay less for future profit. It is disconfirmed if the stated FY2027 and FY2028 operating tests hold.
FY2028 international growth falls below 6%, shortening the premium growth period.
Core pricing or service costs hold operating margin below 55% for two fiscal years.
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
If international growth weakens past this point, the larger geography would no longer support the longer revenue runway. Lower future sales growth would reduce expected earnings and may lead investors to pay less for those earnings.
Hiện tại:FY2025 filing: $18.75 billion
Cảnh báo nếuBelow 6% in FY2028
FY2025 Payment Network revenue was $19.48 billion, and the peer set identifies one close global network competitor. These facts support scale, but not direct proof of customer switching costs.
Services adds breadth, but its disclosed size does not prove strong customer retention or superior margins. Its structural contribution remains conditional on outgrowing the core network.
FY2025 operating income was $19.51 billion on $32.79 billion of revenue. This demonstrates strong operating economics, but it does not alone prove the duration of returns above capital costs.3
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($621.75). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $17.5B after modeled capex of $489.0M, with terminal value at 68.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base path assumes annual forecasts remain firm and operating margin stays at or above its accepted floor. It weakens if FY2027 diluted shares exceed 906 million or FY2028 international growth falls below its accepted floor.
Rising annual forecasts would strengthen near-term earnings visibility.
Stable forecasts would leave the established thesis unchanged.
Falling forecasts would weaken the expected growth path.
FY2025 operating cash exceeded reported profit, supporting the link between earnings and cash generation.3
FY2025 operating cash was $17.40 billion and free cash flow was $16.91 billion. The small gap reflects low physical capital needs and supports the cash-based investment case.34
Debt was $19.0 billion versus $10.57 billion of cash in FY2025. Stock compensation of $597 million means future share reduction remains conditional, not automatic.
FY2025 operating income and low physical investment show strong operating economics, but those observations do not establish a return-on-invested-capital trend.
The dated WACC was 8.0601% on September 8, 2026. No ROIC comparison is asserted from the supplied operating figures alone.
FY2025 free cash flow was $16.91 billion, while capital spending was $489 million.
Most operating cash can support distributions, debt management, or reinvestment rather than physical asset replacement.
Diluted average shares fell from 946 million in FY2023 to 906 million in FY2025.
Continued net repurchases would let earnings per share grow faster than companywide profit, provided issuance does not offset purchases.
| Doanh thu | 32.791.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Giá vốn doanh thu | 0 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận gộp | 32.791.000.000 US$ |
| Chi phí hoạt động | 13.277.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận hoạt động | 19.514.000.000 US$ |
| Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế | -4.546.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 14.968.000.000 US$ |
| Tổng tài sản | 54.157.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Tiền mặt | 10.566.000.000 US$ |
| Tài sản ngắn hạn | 23.558.000.000 US$ |
| Tổng nợ phải trả | 46.411.000.000 US$ |
| Nợ ngắn hạn | 22.762.000.000 US$ |
| Vốn chủ sở hữu | 7.746.000.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 8.687.000.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động | 9.686.000.000 US$ |
| Khấu hao và phân bổ | 726.000.000 US$ |
| Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | 273.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền hoạt động | 9.463.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động | 223.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền sẵn có | 19.576.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền đầu kỳ | 10.113.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư | 5.272.000.000 US$ |
| Capex | 814.000.000 US$ |
| Hoạt động đầu tư khác | 4.458.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính | 6.555.000.000 US$ |
| Cổ tức đã trả | 1.741.000.000 US$ |
| Hoạt động tài chính khác | 4.814.000.000 US$ |
| Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá | 328.000.000 US$ |
| Tiền cuối kỳ | 7.421.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền đầu tư | -5.272.000.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền tài chính | -6.555.000.000 US$ |
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-11 · SEC EDGAR
| Doanh thu theo nhóm kinh doanh | Doanh thu | Tỷ trọng | so với cùng kỳ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payment Network | 19,5 T US$ | 59,4% | 12,4% |
| Value Added Services And Solutions | 13,3 T US$ | 40,6% | 22,9% |
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-11 · SEC EDGAR
| Doanh thu theo khu vực | Doanh thu | Tỷ trọng | so với cùng kỳ |
|---|---|---|---|
| International Markets | 18,7 T US$ | 57,2% | 18,7% |
| Americas | 14 T US$ | 42,8% | 13,5% |
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-09-08.
| Kỳ | Doanh thu | EBITDA | Lợi nhuận ròng | Dòng tiền hoạt động | Dòng tiền tự do | Capex | Khấu hao và phân bổ | Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | Mua lại cổ phiếu | Cổ tức đã trả | Phát hành nợ ròng | Dòng tiền đầu tư | Dòng tiền tài chính | Tiền đầu kỳ | Tiền cuối kỳ | Tiền mặt và đầu tư | Tổng nợ | Biên hoạt động | ROIC | WACC | Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 10,8 T US$ | 6,1 T US$ | 4,1 T US$ | 4,5 T US$ | 4,1 T US$ | 382 Tr US$ | 373 Tr US$ | 101 Tr US$ | — | 837 Tr US$ | — | -1,2 T US$ | -2,3 T US$ | — | 6,7 T US$ | 8,3 T US$ | 5,2 T US$ | 53,5% | — | 6,6% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 12,5 T US$ | 7,1 T US$ | 3,9 T US$ | 5,6 T US$ | 5,1 T US$ | 423 Tr US$ | 437 Tr US$ | 176 Tr US$ | — | 942 Tr US$ | — | -1,8 T US$ | -4,8 T US$ | 6,7 T US$ | 5,9 T US$ | 7,8 T US$ | 5,4 T US$ | 53,0% | — | 6,6% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 15 T US$ | 7,8 T US$ | 5,9 T US$ | 6,2 T US$ | 5,7 T US$ | 504 Tr US$ | 459 Tr US$ | 196 Tr US$ | — | 1 T US$ | — | -506 Tr US$ | -5 T US$ | 5,9 T US$ | 6,7 T US$ | 8,4 T US$ | 6,3 T US$ | 48,7% | — | 6,7% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 16,9 T US$ | 10,5 T US$ | 8,1 T US$ | 8,2 T US$ | 7,5 T US$ | 728 Tr US$ | 522 Tr US$ | 250 Tr US$ | — | 1,3 T US$ | — | -1,6 T US$ | -5,9 T US$ | 6,7 T US$ | 7 T US$ | 7,7 T US$ | 9,9 T US$ | 57,2% | — | 5,8% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 15,3 T US$ | 8,7 T US$ | 6,4 T US$ | 7,2 T US$ | 6,5 T US$ | 708 Tr US$ | 580 Tr US$ | 254 Tr US$ | — | 1,6 T US$ | — | -1,9 T US$ | -2,2 T US$ | 7 T US$ | 10,1 T US$ | 10,6 T US$ | 12,7 T US$ | 52,8% | — | 4,9% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 18,9 T US$ | 11,5 T US$ | 8,7 T US$ | 9,5 T US$ | 8,6 T US$ | 814 Tr US$ | 726 Tr US$ | 273 Tr US$ | — | 1,7 T US$ | — | -5,3 T US$ | -6,6 T US$ | 10,1 T US$ | 7,4 T US$ | 7,9 T US$ | 13,9 T US$ | 53,4% | — | 5,2% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 22,2 T US$ | 13 T US$ | 9,9 T US$ | 11,2 T US$ | 10,1 T US$ | 1,1 T US$ | 750 Tr US$ | 295 Tr US$ | 8,8 T US$ | 1,9 T US$ | 399 Tr US$ | -1,5 T US$ | -10,3 T US$ | 9,9 T US$ | 7 T US$ | 7,4 T US$ | 14 T US$ | 57,2% | — | 7,8% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 25,1 T US$ | 15 T US$ | 11,2 T US$ | 12 T US$ | 11,6 T US$ | 371 Tr US$ | 799 Tr US$ | 460 Tr US$ | 9 T US$ | 2,2 T US$ | 1,6 T US$ | -1,4 T US$ | -9,5 T US$ | 9,2 T US$ | 8,6 T US$ | 9,2 T US$ | 15,7 T US$ | 58,3% | — | 7,8% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 28,2 T US$ | 16,8 T US$ | 12,9 T US$ | 14,8 T US$ | 14,3 T US$ | 474 Tr US$ | 897 Tr US$ | 526 Tr US$ | 11 T US$ | 2,4 T US$ | 2,6 T US$ | -3,4 T US$ | -10,8 T US$ | 10,5 T US$ | 8,4 T US$ | 8,8 T US$ | 18,2 T US$ | 58,0% | — | 8,4% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 32,8 T US$ | 20,4 T US$ | 15 T US$ | 17,4 T US$ | 16,9 T US$ | 489 Tr US$ | 2,1 T US$ | 597 Tr US$ | 11,7 T US$ | 2,8 T US$ | 492 Tr US$ | -1,4 T US$ | -14,2 T US$ | 10,8 T US$ | 10,6 T US$ | 10,9 T US$ | 19 T US$ | 59,5% | — | 7,9% | — |
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) trades at 25.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 23.4x compares with a peer median of 15.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Visa Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc., American Express Company and JPMorgan Chase & Co., as of 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-08.
Industry capital spending equals 2.4% of revenue, while capital spending to depreciation is 0.9. These September 2026 benchmarks indicate restrained physical investment.
Annual FY2026 and FY2027 revenue forecasts rose after the July event. That supports a near-term demand-led upswing, but persistence still depends on reported revenue meeting those forecasts.
A down-cycle would be visible through slower Payment Network growth or lower consolidated margin. Because the network is the largest disclosed product line, either outcome would weigh heavily on sales and profit.
International Markets generated $18.75 billion versus $14.04 billion in the Americas during FY2025. This breadth supports growth duration but adds currency and jurisdiction exposure.5
Existing allocation only; no new percentage is prescribed. The Hold view reflects limited upside to Fair value and material post-FY2027 uncertainty. Maintain exposure only within an existing diversified allocation.
Keep the position unchanged unless operating evidence improves. A breach of any stated growth, margin, or share-count threshold should prompt review before continued exposure.
Cash generation and declining shares support continued ownership, but the valuation gap is not large enough to justify increasing exposure.4
Defer a new position until services growth, international duration, and repurchase capacity receive stronger FY2027 or FY2028 confirmation.
Maintain only an existing allocation because the premium forward valuation remains sensitive to small changes in growth duration.3
Hold existing shares; do not increase exposure at the report-date price.
Fair value is $621.75 versus the $579.21 report-date price, leaving supported upside but limited room for long-duration forecast errors.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
FY2027 diluted shares exceed 906 million, removing the repurchase-led earnings boost.
The moderate cost of equity rises above 10.2394%, compressing long-duration value.
A sustained margin breach would indicate weaker network pricing or higher service costs. Less operating profit from each revenue dollar would reduce earnings and cash while weakening evidence that the franchise can sustain premium economics.
Hiện tại:FY2025: $19.51 billion operating income on $32.79 billion revenue
Cảnh báo nếuBelow 55% for two fiscal years
A rising share count would show that repurchases no longer offset issuance. Earnings would then be spread across more shares, removing an important source of per-share growth even if revenue remains positive.
Hiện tại:FY2025: 906 million
Cảnh báo nếuAbove 906 million in FY2027
A higher required return lowers the present value of distant cash flows even when operating forecasts are unchanged, making the valuation more sensitive to long-duration assumptions.
Hiện tại:September 8, 2026: 8.2394%
Cảnh báo nếuAbove 10.2394% within 12 months
If services no longer outgrow the network, the second growth engine would stop extending the revenue runway. Consolidated growth would likely fade sooner, weakening the earnings path beyond FY2027.
Hiện tại:FY2025 services revenue: $13.32 billion
Cảnh báo nếuGrowth spread at or below zero in FY2027 or FY2028
| Services competition weakens growth or raises delivery costs. | medium | FY2027 through FY2028 | The services line is already material, but mitigation requires it to outgrow Payment Network without sustained margin damage.5 |
Limitation: Terminal value is 70.6% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Under the moderate discount rate, 204 US$ comes from forecast-period earnings and 451 US$ from the long-term value, totaling 655 US$.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 68.2% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Upside persists if international growth stays above its accepted FY2028 floor and services outgrows Payment Network through FY2028. Falling services growth relative to the network would disconfirm this path.5
Pressure lowers profit and cash generation.3
Lagging services shortens the growth runway.5
Higher shares reduce earnings per share.4
Cuts would weaken near-term sales and earnings.1
| FY2035 |
|---|
| Revenue | $37.26B | $41.97B | $46.38B | $50.55B | $54.34B | $57.87B | $61.23B | $64.42B | $67.38B | $70.07B |
| Operating income | $22.54B | $25.39B | $28.06B | $30.58B | $32.88B | $35.01B | $37.04B | $38.97B | $40.76B | $42.39B |
| NOPAT | $18.54B | $20.88B | $23.07B | $25.15B | $27.03B | $28.79B | $30.46B | $32.05B | $33.52B | $34.86B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $18.54B | $20.88B | $23.07B | $25.15B | $27.03B | $28.79B | $30.46B | $32.05B | $33.52B | $34.86B |
| Revenue growth | 13.6% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% |
| Operating margin | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% |
| Tax rate | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Biên |
|---|
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | $507.4B | 25.3x | 14.5x | 23.4x | 241.2% | — |
| V | Visa Inc. | 25.0x | 15.7x | 22.5x | 61.2% | 66.1% | |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings Inc. | 9.5x | 1.4x | 7.7x | 24.5% | 17.0% | |
| AXP | American Express Company | 16.2x | 3.1x | 34.4% | 20.3% | ||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 14.3x | 5.1x | 17.8% | 50.4% |
| FY2027 diluted share count | At or above 906 million | Reassess the Hold because the expected repurchase contribution to earnings per share would be absent. |
