Khi được bạn cho phép, chúng tôi sử dụng phân tích giới hạn, chú trọng quyền riêng tư để hiểu hành trình nghiên cứu nào hiệu quả. Chúng tôi không dùng trình theo dõi quảng cáo hoặc ghi lại phiên. Bạn có thể thay đổi lựa chọn này trong Tùy chọn. Đọc Chính sách quyền riêng tư.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MDLZ — frequently asked questions
Is Mondelez International, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, MDLZ looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 61,3 USD versus our fair value of 70,1 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 86,0 USD. That implies roughly 14.4% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives MDLZ a fair value of 70,1 USD and a potential value of 86,0 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Mondelez International, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MDLZ now?
Our latest published rating for MDLZ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy. Mondelez International, Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 61,3 USD versus fair value of 70,1 USD; potential value is 86,0 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MDLZ?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Mondelez International, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MDLZ's rating?
Our latest published rating for MDLZ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 70,1 USD, the potential value of 86,0 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (61,3 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyBuy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$61.29
Giá trị hợp lý
$70.11
Giá trị tiềm năng
$86.01
Tính đến
Ngày báo giá chưa được ghi nhận
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Bull: Pricing power allows Mondelez to fully offset commodity inflation while driving volume expansion in emerging markets, leading to structurally higher operating margins and a valuation re-rating toward 22x earnings.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion: Raw material costs structurally step up, entirely neutralizing pricing levers and crushing gross margins beyond the firm's hedging capacity.
Mondelez is a premier global snacking compounder characterized by iconic brands, deep distribution moats, and resilient cash flow generation. The business offers moderate but highly visible growth.
Mondelez is a premier global snacking compounder characterized by iconic brands, deep distribution moats, and resilient cash flow generation. The business offers moderate but highly visible growth.
Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury,
Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury, Ritz)
Unmatched global distribution scale
Unmatched global distribution scale
Cycle upside
Consumer resilience allows dominant brands to retain elevated pricing even as input costs normalize, driving outsized margin expansion.
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The company provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese, grocery, and powdered beverage products. Its brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate. It serves supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third-party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents. The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms. Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
Persistent inflation in key inputs like cocoa, coupled with consumer down-trading to private label alternatives, compresses gross margins and stalls EPS growth. In this scenario, the market violently re-rates the terminal multiple down to 15x as structural growth assumptions deteriorate.
Persistent inflation in key inputs like cocoa, coupled with consumer down-trading to private label alternatives, compresses gross margins and stalls EPS growth, dropping the multiple to 15x.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion
Medium
Raw material costs structurally step up, entirely neutralizing pricing levers and crushing gross margins beyond the firm's hedging capacity.
FV impact
-15% to intrinsic value
Trigger
12 to 24 months
Private Label Defection
Medium
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Falling cash conversion would indicate earnings are no longer backed by actual cash collections, straining the aggressive capital distribution strategy and forcing reliance on balance sheet leverage to sustain corporate capital returns.
Hiện tại:1.842 as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếuDrops below 1.0x for two consecutive quarters
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Wide
Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury, Ritz)
Unmatched global distribution scale
Highly inelastic consumer demand
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($67.17). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Pricing power allows Mondelez to fully offset commodity inflation while driving volume expansion in emerging markets, leading to structurally higher operating margins and a valuation re-rating toward 22x earnings.
Warning level: Drops below 1.0x for two consecutive quarters. Falling cash conversion would indicate earnings are no longer backed by actual cash collections, straining the aggressive capital distribution strategy and forcing reliance on balance sheet leverage to sustain corporate capital returns.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Doanh thu mới nhất38,5 TCAGR doanh thu +7,0%
Biên hoạt động9,4%4 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất3,2 TFY2025
Nợ ròng19,7 TFY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu38,5 TGiá vốn doanh thu−27,6 TLợi nhuận gộp10,9 TChi phí hoạt động−7,3 TLợi nhuận hoạt động3,6 TCác khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−1,2 TLợi nhuận ròng2,5 T
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
38.537.000.000
Giá vốn doanh thu
27.602.000.000
Lợi nhuận gộp
10.935.000.000
Chi phí hoạt động
7.315.000.000
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
3.620.000.000
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-1.169.000.000
Lợi nhuận ròng
2.451.000.000
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản71,5 TTiền mặt2,1 TTài sản ngắn hạn13 TTổng nợ phải trả45,6 TNợ ngắn hạn21,9 TVốn chủ sở hữu25,8 T
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
71.487.000.000
Tiền mặt
2.125.000.000
Tài sản ngắn hạn
12.951.000.000
Tổng nợ phải trả
45.596.000.000
Nợ ngắn hạn
21.864.000.000
Vốn chủ sở hữu
25.838.000.000
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-05-20.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2022-12-31
31,5 T
4,8 T
2,7 T
3,9 T
3 T
906 Tr
1,1 T
120 Tr
2 T
2 T
3,4 T
—
—
—
—
1,9 T
23,4 T
12,1%
—
5,8%
—
2023-12-31
36 T
7,6 T
5 T
4,7 T
3,6 T
1,1 T
1,2 T
146 Tr
1,5 T
2,2 T
-4 T
—
—
—
—
1,8 T
19,9 T
15,6%
—
5,7%
—
2024-12-31
36,4 T
8,1 T
4,6 T
4,9 T
3,5 T
1,4 T
1,3 T
147 Tr
2,3 T
2,3 T
-1,2 T
—
—
—
—
1,4 T
18,4 T
18,3%
—
6,1%
—
2025-12-31
38,5 T
5 T
2,5 T
4,5 T
3,2 T
1,3 T
1,4 T
114 Tr
2,4 T
2,5 T
2,1 T
—
—
—
—
2,1 T
21,8 T
9,4%
—
5,2%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Mondelez International, Inc.MDLZ
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý70,11 US$Report-date price61,29 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư61 / 100
The Hershey CompanyHSY
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý187,4 US$Report-date price160,19 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư72 / 100
Walmart Inc.WMT
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý75,66 US$Report-date price106,05 US$
MDLZ trades at 18.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.5x; EV/EBITDA of 18.9x against a peer median of 22.9x; 6 peers.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Maintenance capex consistently mirrors depreciation at roughly 3.3% of revenue, meaning the enterprise requires minimal incremental capital to sustain baseline volumes.
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Consumer resilience allows dominant brands to retain elevated pricing even as input costs normalize, driving outsized margin expansion.
Maintenance capex consistently mirrors depreciation at roughly 3.3% of revenue, meaning the enterprise requires minimal incremental capital to sustain baseline volumes.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
Appropriate as a core anchor holding within defensive or dividend-focused equity portfolios.
Rủi ro
Trim exposure aggressively if valuation touches the $86.01 bull scenario boundary or if organic volumes contract for three consecutive quarters.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Current / pullbacks
The current $61.29 price level adequately discounts implied growth expectations, offering a safe accumulation point.
The current $61.29 price level adequately discounts implied growth expectations, offering a safe accumulation point.
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Thesis break
Trim exposure aggressively if valuation touches the $86.01 bull scenario boundary or if organic volumes contract for three consecutive quarters.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Bull view
Buy
We assign a Buy rating based on the significant disconnect between current pricing and the firm's highly resilient, cash-generative fundamental baseline.
Base view
Buy
At $61.29, market expectations imply a 2.14% terminal growth rate—materially lower than our conservative 3.12% forward estimates. This spread provides a distinct, quantifiable margin of safety. Tightly triangulated FCFF ($67) and moat-fade models ($66) confirm the baseline intrinsic value solidly exceeds current trading levels.
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Mua
We assign a Buy rating based on the significant disconnect between current pricing and the firm's highly resilient, cash-generative fundamental baseline.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Contracting top-line revenues would signal widespread consumer defection to private label alternatives and severe pricing elasticity limits, undermining core brand equity and structural category expansion across international snack markets.
Hiện tại:5.8% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuDeclines below 0.0% over a trailing twelve-month period
Severe margin erosion would demonstrate an inability to pass along cocoa and commodity inflation through retail pricing adjustments, dismantling core unit economics and impairing operating profitability across major confectionery divisions.
Hiện tại:28.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuCompresses by more than 150 basis points year-over-year in any fiscal year
Operating deleverage indicates rising structural overhead costs and uncompensated commercial spending, undermining corporate earnings power and compounding the negative impact of raw material cost inflation on bottom-line profitability.
Hiện tại:9.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuFalls below 8.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Distributing more cash to shareholders than generated by operations would exhaust discretionary capital, forcing management to fund shareholder dividends with external debt and endangering the company's investment-grade balance sheet.
Hiện tại:97.5% as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếuBreaches 100.0% of free cash flow over a four-quarter period
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
The enterprise achieves moderate but highly visible growth. A tightly constrained 18x exit multiple accounts for macro headwinds, while exceptional cash flow conversion fully sustains the heavy dividend payout structure.
Hiện tại5.8% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: Declines below 0.0% over a trailing twelve-month period. Contracting top-line revenues would signal widespread consumer defection to private label alternatives and severe pricing elasticity limits, undermining core brand equity and structural category expansion across international snack markets.
Warning level: Compresses by more than 150 basis points year-over-year in any fiscal year. Severe margin erosion would demonstrate an inability to pass along cocoa and commodity inflation through retail pricing adjustments, dismantling core unit economics and impairing operating profitability across major confectionery divisions.
Warning level: Falls below 8.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Operating deleverage indicates rising structural overhead costs and uncompensated commercial spending, undermining corporate earnings power and compounding the negative impact of raw material cost inflation on bottom-line profitability.
Warning level: Breaches 100.0% of free cash flow over a four-quarter period. Distributing more cash to shareholders than generated by operations would exhaust discretionary capital, forcing management to fund shareholder dividends with external debt and endangering the company's investment-grade balance sheet.
Costco Wholesale CorporationCOST
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý439,14 US$Report-date price895,31 US$
