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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MDT — frequently asked questions
Is Medtronic plc overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-12, MDT looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 76,8 USD versus our fair value of 95,9 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 114 USD. That implies roughly 24.8% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-12, gives MDT a fair value of 95,9 USD and a potential value of 114 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Medtronic plc's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MDT now?
Our latest published rating for MDT, analyzed 2026-05-12, is Buy. Medtronic plc looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 76,8 USD versus fair value of 95,9 USD; potential value is 114 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MDT?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-12 documents Medtronic plc's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MDT's rating?
Our latest published rating for MDT, analyzed 2026-05-12, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 95,9 USD, the potential value of 114 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (76,8 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyBuy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$76.82
Giá trị hợp lý
$95.89
Giá trị tiềm năng
$113.75
Tính đến
Ngày báo giá chưa được ghi nhận
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Bull: Successful launch and rapid adoption of new therapies reignite mid-single-digit top-line growth, driving operating leverage and margin expansion.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Pipeline Stagnation: Regulatory and clinical trial setbacks for Cardiovascular and Diabetes pipelines stall product cycles, allowing competitors to permanently seize market share.
Medtronic is a dominant, entrenched player in the global medical devices industry. While near-term growth is sluggish and quarterly earnings are compressed, its immense scale, high switching costs for healthcare providers, and reliable free cash flow easily support a high dividend payout, fitting the classic mature dividend archetype.
Medtronic is a dominant, entrenched player in the global medical devices industry. While near-term growth is sluggish and quarterly earnings are compressed, its immense scale, high switching costs for healthcare providers, and reliable free cash flow easily support a high dividend payout, fitting the classic mature dividend archetype.
Buy. Medtronic's deeply entrenched portfolio and cash generation capabilities are severely undervalued by a market fixated on near-term trailing stagnation.
Tổng quan công ty
Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients in the United States, Ireland, and internationally. The Cardiovascular Portfolio segment offers implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices; cardiac ablation products; insertable cardiac monitor systems; TYRX products; and remote monitoring and patient-centered software. It also provides aortic valves, surgical valve replacement and repair products, endovascular stent grafts and accessories, and transcatheter pulmonary valves, and percutaneous coronary intervention products, percutaneous angioplasty balloons, and other products. The Neuroscience Portfolio segment offers medical devices and implants, biologic solutions, spinal cord stimulation and brain modulation systems, implantable drug infusion systems, and interventional products, as well as nerve ablation system under the Accurian name. The segment offers its products for spinal surgeons, neurosurgeons, neurologists, pain management specialists, anesthesiologists, orthopedic surgeons, urologists, urogynecologists, and interventional radiologists, as well as ear, nose, and throat specialists, and energy surgical instruments. The Medical Surgical Portfolio segment offers surgical stapling devices, vessel sealing instruments, wound closure and electrosurgery products, AI-powered surgical video and analytics platform, robotic-assisted surgery products, hernia mechanical devices, mesh implants, gynecology products, gastrointestinal and hepatologic diagnostics and therapies, and therapies to treat diseases and conditions, and patient monitoring and airway management products. The Diabetes Operating Unit segment provides insulin pumps and consumables, continuous glucose monitoring systems and sensors, and InPen, a smart insulin pen. Medtronic plc was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Galway, Ireland.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
A prolonged period of sluggish top-line growth combined with intense pricing pressure and hospital capital constraints severely compresses operating margins below the 19.5% baseline, threatening Medtronic's reliable free cash flow and forcing a cut to its high dividend payout.
Intense competition and pricing pressure erode gross margins, threatening the dividend growth trajectory and resulting in severe multiple compression.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Pipeline Stagnation
Medium
Regulatory and clinical trial setbacks for Cardiovascular and Diabetes pipelines stall product cycles, allowing competitors to permanently seize market share.
FV impact
-20%
Trigger
12-24 months
Hospital Capital Freeze
Low
Macroeconomic pressures force severe hospital capital constraints and widespread deferral of elective procedures, crushing revenue growth to negative territory.
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
If revenue growth misses the 1.5% hurdle, shares likely de-rate further; if Cardiovascular and Diabetes post mid-single-digit growth, expect modest multiple expansion toward 14x.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Hold
Kích hoạt: In-line results
If revenue growth misses the 1.5% hurdle, shares likely de-rate further; if Cardiovascular and Diabetes post mid-single-digit growth, expect modest multiple expansion toward 14x.
Hụt
Reassess
Kích hoạt: Downside surprise
If revenue growth misses the 1.5% hurdle, shares likely de-rate further; if Cardiovascular and Diabetes post mid-single-digit growth, expect modest multiple expansion toward 14x.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
If revenue growth misses the 1.5% hurdle, shares likely de-rate further; if Cardiovascular and Diabetes post mid-single-digit growth, expect modest multiple expansion toward 14x.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
Doanh thu mới nhất33,5 TCAGR doanh thu +1,9%
Biên hoạt động19,5%4 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất5,2 TFY2025
Nợ ròng26,3 TFY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu33,5 TGiá vốn doanh thu−11,6 TLợi nhuận gộp21,9 TChi phí hoạt động−15,4 TLợi nhuận hoạt động6,5 TCác khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−1,9 TLợi nhuận ròng4,7 T
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
33.537.000.000
Giá vốn doanh thu
11.632.000.000
Lợi nhuận gộp
21.905.000.000
Chi phí hoạt động
15.365.000.000
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
6.540.000.000
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-1.878.000.000
Lợi nhuận ròng
4.662.000.000
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản91,7 TTiền mặt2,2 TTài sản ngắn hạn23,8 TTổng nợ phải trả43,4 TNợ ngắn hạn12,9 TVốn chủ sở hữu48 T
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
91.680.000.000
Tiền mặt
2.218.000.000
Tài sản ngắn hạn
23.814.000.000
Tổng nợ phải trả
43.424.000.000
Nợ ngắn hạn
12.879.000.000
Vốn chủ sở hữu
48.024.000.000
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-05-12.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2022-04-30
31,7 T
8,8 T
5 T
7,3 T
6 T
1,4 T
2,7 T
359 Tr
2,5 T
3,4 T
-1 Tr
—
—
—
—
3,7 T
24,1 T
18,6%
—
5,9%
—
2023-04-30
31,2 T
8,7 T
3,8 T
6 T
4,6 T
1,5 T
2,7 T
355 Tr
645 Tr
3,6 T
-598 Tr
—
—
—
—
1,5 T
24,4 T
18,7%
—
6,2%
—
2024-04-30
32,4 T
8,2 T
3,7 T
6,8 T
5,2 T
1,6 T
2,6 T
393 Tr
2,1 T
3,7 T
1,1 T
—
—
—
—
1,3 T
25 T
17,1%
—
7,3%
—
2025-04-30
33,5 T
9,2 T
4,7 T
7 T
5,2 T
1,9 T
2,9 T
429 Tr
3,2 T
3,6 T
2,1 T
—
—
—
—
2,2 T
28,5 T
19,5%
—
—
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Medtronic plcMDT
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý95,89 US$Report-date price76,82 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư69 / 100
Abbott LaboratoriesABT
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý86,74 US$Report-date price105,52 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNone
Bảng điểm đầu tư52 / 100
Stryker CorporationSYK
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý313,18 US$Report-date price297,6 US$
Healthcare system capital spending constraints and deferred procedures delay volume recovery.
Định vị
High dividend payout limits aggressive M&A, forcing reliance on internal R&D and pipeline execution.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
Core holding given mature dividend archetype and low downside risk.
Rủi ro
Re-evaluate if capex/revenue structurally disconnects or if forward revenue estimates drop below 1.5%.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Current / pullbacks
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Thesis break
Re-evaluate if capex/revenue structurally disconnects or if forward revenue estimates drop below 1.5%.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Bull view
Buy
Buy. The current share price fails to credit the immense durability of Medtronic's free cash flow engine, providing a large margin of safety against sluggish top-line growth.
Base view
Buy
The 1.73% implied growth hurdle from the Reverse DCF confirms extreme market pessimism. Our multi-model synthesis relies heavily on structural cash generation to bypass near-term trailing noise.
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Mua
Buy. The current share price fails to credit the immense durability of Medtronic's free cash flow engine, providing a large margin of safety against sluggish top-line growth.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Sub-par capital efficiency indicates that elevated capital outlays are failing to produce accretive operating profits. Generating returns below the corporate hurdle rate erodes economic value and restricts capital redeployment toward high-growth medtech innovations, weakening long-term competitive differentiation.
Hiện tại:6.6% as of 2026-05-12
Cảnh báo nếuROIC declines below 5.0% over a twelve-month period
Persistent margin degradation reflects an inability to offset customer pricing pressure and medical inflation through cost containment. Compressing operating margins directly reduces free cash flow generation, eliminating bottom-line operating leverage and endangering the company's valuation multiple relative to peers.
Hiện tại:19.5% for the period ended 2025-04-30
Cảnh báo nếuOperating margin falls below 19.5% over two consecutive fiscal quarters
Escalating cash commitment to shareholder payouts leaves little cushion against revenuevolatility or unexpected clinical liabilities. Exceeding sustainable cash boundaries forces either an outright dividend reduction or debt-funded shareholder returns, destroying the core defensive income thesis and triggering severe multiple compression.
Major regulatory or clinical setbacks freeze critical product launch cycles in high-margin growth categories. Failing to refresh innovative offerings allows agile competitors to permanently capture market share, undermining premium pricing power and eliminating key anticipated drivers of mid-single-digit top-line acceleration.
Hiện tại:Active pipeline development programs as of 2026-05-12
Cảnh báo nếu1 or more formal FDA rejections or Phase 3 clinical trial terminations in Cardiovascular or Diabetes pipelines within a 12-month period
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Regulatory delays stalling product cycles.
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
Warning level: ROIC declines below 5.0% over a twelve-month period. Sub-par capital efficiency indicates that elevated capital outlays are failing to produce accretive operating profits. Generating returns below the corporate hurdle rate erodes economic value and restricts capital redeployment toward high-growth medtech innovations, weakening long-term competitive differentiation.
Warning level: Dividend payout ratio exceeds 90% of free cash flow over an annual period. Escalating cash commitment to shareholder payouts leaves little cushion against revenuevolatility or unexpected clinical liabilities. Exceeding sustainable cash boundaries forces either an outright dividend reduction or debt-funded shareholder returns, destroying the core defensive income thesis and triggering severe multiple compression.
05
Chỉ số:
Cardiovascular and Diabetes Clinical Approvals
Hiện tạiActive pipeline development programs as of 2026-05-12
Vì sao quan trọng
Warning level: 1 or more formal FDA rejections or Phase 3 clinical trial terminations in Cardiovascular or Diabetes pipelines within a 12-month period. Major regulatory or clinical setbacks freeze critical product launch cycles in high-margin growth categories. Failing to refresh innovative offerings allows agile competitors to permanently capture market share, undermining premium pricing power and eliminating key anticipated drivers of mid-single-digit top-line acceleration.
