Phân tích sản phẩm tùy chọn
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The largest opportunity lies in sustained corporate convention banquet pricing power in Las Vegas combined with accelerated premium mass table productivity in Macau.
A contraction in Las Vegas Strip leisure travel demand combined with pricing resistance at lower-tier resorts.
MGM Resorts International is rated Reduce because the share price of $28.96 as of $28.96 (as of 2026-10-14) stands above our Fair value of $24.22 with an implied return of -16.4%, leaving inadequate margin of safety against the company's substantial debt and fixed lease obligations.
The house rating on MGM Resorts International is Reduce. For an investor, a Reduce rating indicates that the shares offer an unfavorable risk-reward profile at prevailing market valuations, warranting a trimming of existing positions or redeploying capital into higher-conviction opportunities.
The analysis was prepared at a price of $28.96 as of $28.96 (as of 2026-10-14). This price stands above our Fair value of $24.22, yielding an implied return of -16.4%, and also approaches our Potential value of $27.28. Because the shares trade well above mid-cycle fair value and close to the potential ceiling, the current valuation reflects excessive optimism regarding margin expansion while failing to compensate investors for financial .
The primary risk to the business is a consumer spending pullback on the Las Vegas Strip combined with fixed master lease commitments. If leisure travel weakens and middle-income consumers cut back, lower-tier property occupancy falters, forcing room rate discounting as observed at Luxor and Excalibur. Because MGM carries $30,158.69 million in total debt and long-term lease liabilities, fixed triple-net rent and debt service would consume a growing share of cash flows, compressing operating margins and reducing capital available for equity holders.23
Conversely, the principal upside driver is resilient luxury convention mix in Las Vegas alongside premium mass growth in Macau. If corporate group demand maintains record banquet and meeting pricing and MGM China expands high-margin table win, consolidated cash generation would accelerate. Under this outcome, free cash flow reaching $1,460.45 million would support sustained share repurchases, reducing share count toward 251,592,756 shares and driving per-share value toward Potential value of $27.28.2346
Dominant positioning at Bellagio, ARIA, and Cosmopolitan captures high-margin banquet and convention group business that buffers cash generation against seasonal leisure softness.3
MGM China captures high-margin premium mass table drop through service innovation and entertainment offerings, generating resilient cash flows without engaging in promotional table wars.3
Operating cash flow of $2,529.38 million and free cash flow of $1,460.45 million fund ongoing share buybacks that compound EPS growth across market cycles.45
MGM Resorts International is rated Reduce because the share price of $28.96 as of $28.96 (as of 2026-10-14) stands above our Fair value of $24.22 with an implied return of -16.4%, leaving inadequate margin of safety against the company's substantial debt and fixed lease obligations.
MGM Resorts International is a global gaming and entertainment company operating integrated luxury resorts that feature casino gaming, hotel accommodations, dining, entertainment, convention facilities, and retail offerings. The company operates through three principal reporting segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations across the United States, and MGM China Holdings Limited in Macau.
In addition to its land-based resort portfolio, MGM operates sports betting and online gaming operations through BetMGM in North America and international digital operations, including LeoVegas.
In a macroeconomic stress environment, leisure consumer discretionary spending retrenchment directly strikes Las Vegas Strip room yields. Lower-tier properties are already exhibiting price sensitivity, requiring all-inclusive packages to sustain occupancy, while international travel remains off prior peak levels. Concurrently, concessionaire rivalry in Macau intensifies promotional allowances, squeezing MGM China EBITDA margins. Because MGM operates under extensive long-term triple-net master leases that comprise the bulk of its $30,158.69 million in total debt and capitalized lease liabilities, rent and interest expenses are largely non-negotiable. Operating leverage works sharply in reverse during top-line declines, severely compressing operating cash flow from FY2025 levels of $2,529.38 million, extinguishing free cash flow, terminating share repurchases, and forcing valuation multiples down toward historical trough levels.
Las Vegas Strip Resorts generated $8,441.50 million in FY2025 revenue. In Q2 2026, lower-tier Strip properties (Luxor, Excalibur) faced consumer spending headwinds requiring all-inclusive packages to support occupancy, while international travel remains off considerably versus prior peaks. A broader consumer downturn combined with fixed master lease obligations would contract Strip operating margins below 5.0%, delivering an estimated 30% haircut to fair value within 12 months.36
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Margin compression on the Strip would falsify the core cash generation pillar, indicating that lower-tier room rate discounting is overwhelming luxury convention pricing power.
Hiện tại:Consolidated operating margin of 5.71% in FY2025 with Las Vegas Strip Resorts generating $8,441.50 million in revenue
MGM Resorts International possesses a narrow economic moat grounded in irreplaceable physical assets on the Las Vegas Strip and statutory gaming concessions in Macau. On the Strip, properties including Bellagio, ARIA, and Cosmopolitan occupy prime positions that cannot be replicated due to land scarcity, zoning barriers, and prohibitive replacement costs. This concentration generated $8,441.50 million in FY2025 revenue, representing 48.1% of consolidated turnover. In Macau, MGM China operates under one of six statutory concessions renewed through 2032, generating $4,461.74 million in FY2025 revenue by targeting high-margin premium mass gaming.
The company's competitive advantage is augmented by scale advantages across marketing, entertainment procurement, and convention infrastructure. Convention and meeting spaces allow MGM to drive group room mix toward 20%, achieving record convention ADR and banquet revenue that buffer midweek occupancy. Furthermore, loyalty program integration across regional properties and digital platforms facilitates database cross-monetization.
Despite these strengths, the moat is bounded as Narrow rather than Wide due to high capital intensity and fixed lease commitments. The separation of real estate ownership through sale-leaseback transactions has converted real property equity into $30,158.69 million of total debt and capitalized lease liabilities. These non-discretionary rent obligations, combined with promotional concessionaire rivalry in Macau and price sensitivity at lower-tier Strip resorts, restrict the company's ability to maintain high returns on invested capital throughout the full economic cycle.
MGM generates an economic return that approximates or moderately exceeds its computed WACC of 7.61%, with a moderate cost of equity of 10.61%. However, the economic profit spread is constrained by high debt weight of 80.54% and $30,158.69 million in total debt, which requires substantial annual cash flows to service fixed lease rent and financing costs.12
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($24.22). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
Under the Bull scenario, the target reaches $27.28 with an estimated probability of 25.0% and an implied return of -5.8% relative to $28.96 as of $28.96 (as of 2026-10-14). This path reflects an acceleration in high-margin international visitation to Las Vegas, expanding market share in Macau premium mass tables, and operating leverage inflection in European digital operations that fully self-funds expansion in Latin America.
An earnings beat driven by corporate banquet pricing power and Macau market share gains would demonstrate stronger luxury demand resilience than assumed in our baseline model.
Results tracking consensus confirm our mid-cycle normalization thesis, leaving the shares overvalued relative to Fair value with an unfavorable risk-reward profile.
An earnings miss would expose operational deleveraging against fixed triple-net lease liabilities, causing sharp cash flow compression.
Operating cash flow conversion remains solid, driven by positive working capital dynamics and minimal stock-based compensation relative to net income. However, accounting earnings are flattered by property sale-leaseback transactions that substitute depreciation with substantial fixed triple-net rent obligations. Cash conversion is vulnerable to leisure travel downturns because master lease payments are non-discretionary fixed contractual commitments.
Consensus earnings projections have remained largely flat following the recent quarterly release, with modest downward revisions in forward fiscal periods reflecting cautious expectations for lower-tier Strip room pricing and Macau concessionaire competition.
Measures property profitability; contractions signal that room discounting at mid-tier assets is eroding luxury banquet pricing power.
In FY2025, MGM generated $2,529.38 million in operating cash flow and $1,460.45 million in free cash flow after funding capital expenditures of $1,068.93 million. Stock-based compensation was modest at $90.47 million, ensuring high cash earnings quality. Cash and cash equivalents stood at $2,062.99 million as of year-end 2025. However, free cash flow generation is heavily burdened by fixed master lease rent payments to VICI Properties, which limit discretionary cash flow during cyclical downturns.45
Return on invested capital is projected to improve gradually as operating margins recover from 5.71% in FY2025 toward mid-cycle normalization of 10.2% by FY2030, supported by convention group pricing power and digital operating leverage.
ROIC moderately exceeds the computed WACC of 7.61%, but the spread remains narrow due to high financial leverage with debt weighting at 80.54% and $30,158.69 million in total debt.
FY2025 free cash flow of $1,460.45 million against modest of $90.47 million allowed management to reduce shares from 277.28 million to 251.59 million.
| Doanh thu | 17.537.683.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Giá vốn doanh thu | 9.747.552.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận gộp | 7.790.131.000 US$ |
| Chi phí hoạt động | 6.788.351.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận hoạt động | 1.001.780.000 US$ |
| Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế | -795.918.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 205.862.000 US$ |
| Tổng tài sản | 41.373.786.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Tiền mặt | 2.062.994.000 US$ |
| Tài sản ngắn hạn | 4.332.424.000 US$ |
| Tổng nợ phải trả | 38.097.468.000 US$ |
| Nợ ngắn hạn | 3.512.107.000 US$ |
| Vốn chủ sở hữu | 3.254.541.000 US$ |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 205.862.000 US$ |
|---|---|
| Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động | 2.529.378.000 US$ |
| Khấu hao và phân bổ | 1.017.794.000 US$ |
| Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | 90.471.000 US$ |
| Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác | 1.215.251.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền hoạt động | 2.529.378.000 US$ |
| Tiền sẵn có | 5.036.852.000 US$ |
| Tiền đầu kỳ | 2.503.064.000 US$ |
| Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá | 4.410.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư | 1.140.789.000 US$ |
| Capex | 1.068.927.000 US$ |
| Hoạt động đầu tư khác | 71.862.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính | 1.731.094.000 US$ |
| Mua lại cổ phiếu | 1.228.272.000 US$ |
| Hoàn trả nợ ròng | 139.615.000 US$ |
| Hoạt động tài chính khác | 363.207.000 US$ |
| Tiền cuối kỳ | 2.150.364.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền đầu tư | -1.140.789.000 US$ |
| Dòng tiền tài chính | -1.731.094.000 US$ |
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-11 · SEC EDGAR
| Doanh thu theo khu vực | Doanh thu | Tỷ trọng | so với cùng kỳ |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 12,4 T US$ | 70,8% | -2% |
| China | 4,5 T US$ | 25,5% | 11% |
| Non USOther | 662 Tr US$ | 3,8% | 19,2% |
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-15.
| Kỳ | Doanh thu | EBITDA | Lợi nhuận ròng | Dòng tiền hoạt động | Dòng tiền tự do | Capex | Khấu hao và phân bổ | Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | Mua lại cổ phiếu | Cổ tức đã trả | Phát hành nợ ròng | Dòng tiền đầu tư | Dòng tiền tài chính | Tiền đầu kỳ | Tiền cuối kỳ | Tiền mặt và đầu tư | Tổng nợ | Biên hoạt động | ROIC | WACC | Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 9,5 T US$ | 2,8 T US$ | 1,1 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | -728,5 Tr US$ | 2,3 T US$ | 849,5 Tr US$ | 55,5 Tr US$ | 0 US$ | 0 US$ | — | -2,3 T US$ | 519,4 Tr US$ | — | 1,4 T US$ | 1,4 T US$ | 13 T US$ | 21,9% | — | 6,1% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 10,8 T US$ | 2,6 T US$ | 2 T US$ | 2,2 T US$ | 342,3 Tr US$ | 1,9 T US$ | 993,5 Tr US$ | 62,5 Tr US$ | 327,5 Tr US$ | 252 Tr US$ | — | -1,6 T US$ | -568,8 Tr US$ | 1,4 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 12,9 T US$ | 15,9% | — | 5,0% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 11,8 T US$ | 2,5 T US$ | 466,8 Tr US$ | 1,7 T US$ | 235,7 Tr US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 70,2 Tr US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 260,6 Tr US$ | — | -2,1 T US$ | 389,2 Tr US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 15,1 T US$ | 12,5% | — | 5,7% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 12,9 T US$ | 5 T US$ | 2 T US$ | 1,8 T US$ | 1,1 T US$ | 739 Tr US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 88,8 Tr US$ | 1 T US$ | 271,3 Tr US$ | — | 3,5 T US$ | -4,5 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 2,3 T US$ | 2,3 T US$ | 11,2 T US$ | 30,5% | — | 4,2% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 5,2 T US$ | -779,8 Tr US$ | -1 T US$ | -1,5 T US$ | -1,8 T US$ | 270,6 Tr US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 107 Tr US$ | 353,7 Tr US$ | 77,6 Tr US$ | — | 2,2 T US$ | 2,1 T US$ | 2,3 T US$ | 5,1 T US$ | 6,5 T US$ | 12,4 T US$ | -12,4% | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 9,7 T US$ | 3,4 T US$ | 1,3 T US$ | 1,4 T US$ | 882,7 Tr US$ | 490,7 Tr US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 65,2 Tr US$ | 1,8 T US$ | 4,8 Tr US$ | — | 1,5 T US$ | -2,8 T US$ | 5,1 T US$ | 5,2 T US$ | 4,7 T US$ | 12,8 T US$ | 23,5% | — | 7,6% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 13,1 T US$ | 5 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 1,8 T US$ | 991,4 Tr US$ | 765,1 Tr US$ | 3,5 T US$ | 71,3 Tr US$ | 2,8 T US$ | 4 Tr US$ | 77,9 Tr US$ | 2,1 T US$ | -3 T US$ | 5,2 T US$ | 6 T US$ | 5,9 T US$ | 8,7 T US$ | 11,0% | — | 9,1% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 16,2 T US$ | 2,4 T US$ | 1,1 T US$ | 2,7 T US$ | 1,8 T US$ | 931,8 Tr US$ | 814,1 Tr US$ | 73,6 Tr US$ | 2,3 T US$ | 0 US$ | -2,4 T US$ | -714,2 Tr US$ | -5 T US$ | 6 T US$ | 3 T US$ | 2,9 T US$ | 6,3 T US$ | 11,7% | — | 10,4% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 17,2 T US$ | 2,4 T US$ | 746,6 Tr US$ | 2,4 T US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 1,2 T US$ | 831,1 Tr US$ | 80,2 Tr US$ | 1,4 T US$ | 0 US$ | 29,4 Tr US$ | -1,3 T US$ | -1,6 T US$ | 3 T US$ | 2,5 T US$ | 2,4 T US$ | 6,4 T US$ | 8,6% | — | 10,6% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 17,5 T US$ | 1,7 T US$ | 205,9 Tr US$ | 2,5 T US$ | 1,5 T US$ | 1,1 T US$ | 1 T US$ | 90,5 Tr US$ | 1,2 T US$ | — | -139,6 Tr US$ | -1,1 T US$ | -1,7 T US$ | 2,5 T US$ | 2,2 T US$ | 2,1 T US$ | 6,2 T US$ | 5,7% | — | 8,4% | — |
MGM Resorts International (MGM) trades at 17.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.7x. Its EV/EBITDA of 15.9x compares with a peer median of 8.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Wynn Resorts Limited, Las Vegas Sands Corp., BorgWarner Inc. and Caesars Entertainment Inc., as of 2026-10-15.
Because industry capex and capacity benchmarks are unavailable in the canonical evidence, the industry cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited. Within reported company data, Las Vegas Strip revenue reached $8,441.50 million in FY2025 and management reported record second-quarter convention ADR and banquet revenue, while capital expenditures stood at $1,068.93 million.356
In a sustained expansion phase, corporate event attendance accelerates, international flight capacity into Las Vegas recovers toward pre-pandemic peaks from currently depressed levels, and Macau premium mass gaming volumes expand steadily, driving high operating leverage across resort properties.
In a cyclical downturn, consumer discretionary spending retrenchment reduces leisure travel, forcing price cuts across lower-tier Strip properties. Meanwhile, intense concessionaire table reinvestment in Macau erodes win margins, while MGM's $30,158.69 million debt and fixed master lease burden exacerbates operational deleveraging.
MGM is positioned as a diversified gaming and hospitality operator anchored by luxury Strip properties and Macau exposure. However, its asset-light operating model with long-term triple-net master leases leaves it more vulnerable to fixed-charge pressures during cyclical troughs than peers with unencumbered real estate.
Given the house rating of Reduce and implied return of -16.4% relative to Fair value of $24.22, investors should eliminate or reduce exposure to minimal benchmark-underweight levels rather than allocating capital to new purchases.
Risk management requires monitoring fixed master lease rent coverage and cash balances. With total debt of $30,158.69 million and cash reserves of $2,062.99 million, fixed obligations cannot be lowered during demand contractions. Investors holding positions should maintain tight risk controls and hedge against broader consumer cyclical downturns.
The stock trades at $28.96 as of $28.96 (as of 2026-10-14), exceeding our Fair value of $24.22 with an implied return of -16.4%. With total debt and lease liabilities of $30,158.69 million, the margin of safety is inadequate to justify a new capital allocation.2
While premium mass gaming in Macau and digital sports betting expansion offer multi-year growth channels, consolidated revenue growth remains modest and capital reinvestment requirements limit near-term upside toward Potential value of $27.28.36
MGM does not pay a regular cash dividend, choosing to return capital primarily via share repurchases. Given the valuation premium and fixed debt burden, total return potential is constrained over an investment horizon of three to five years.134
MGM Resorts International is rated Reduce because the share price of $28.96 as of $28.96 (as of 2026-10-14) stands well above our Fair value of $24.22, offering an implied return of -16.4%. The market price reflects optimistic operating margin expansion while underestimating the risks of fixed master lease obligations.
While luxury Strip assets and Macau premium mass gaming generate solid operational cash flow, the company's financial leverage and fixed-charge structure leave insufficient margin of safety for equity investors at prevailing trading levels.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
The Bear scenario captures a severe operational and cyclical contraction. Macroeconomic weakness and reduced leisure travel depress Las Vegas Strip room rates, forcing promotional discounting at lower-tier properties. Simultaneously, aggressive rival concessionaire table reinvestment in Macau erodes gaming margins. Due to substantial fixed master lease obligations, operating leverage works sharply in reverse, impairing free cash flow generation and compressing valuation multiples.
MGM China delivered $4,461.74 million in FY2025 revenue. Concessionaires face an intense promotional environment in Macau, while peer LVS experienced negative revenue growth of -0.7%. Escalating table reinvestment and promotional allowances by rivals could cause MGM China revenue to contract by more than 5% YoY, depressing fair value by an estimated 25% over an 18-month horizon.36
MGM carries $30,158.69 million in total debt against an equity market capitalization of $7,286.13 million, resulting in a debt weight of 80.54%. Peer LVS trades at 10.62x forward P/E. Cyclical multiple compression toward peer-trough levels would drive exit multiples below 11.0x, impacting fair value by an estimated 20% over 24 months.12
Cảnh báo nếuLas Vegas Strip resort operating margin falling below 18.0% for two consecutive quarters
Market share erosion would confirm that rival concessionaire promotional reinvestment is eroding table yields and impairing high-margin dividend flows to the parent company.
Hiện tại:China operating revenue of $4,461.74 million in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuMGM China gross gaming revenue market share falling below 13.0% for a full fiscal year
A drop below this liquidity threshold would force management to halt share repurchases and redirect capital entirely to mandatory debt and fixed triple-net master lease obligations.
Hiện tại:Free cash flow of $1,460.45 million in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuAnnual free cash flow falling below $800.00 million on a trailing-twelve-month basis
Elevated financial leverage magnifies operational volatility during demand pullbacks, severely constraining balance sheet flexibility.
Hiện tại:Total debt of $30,158.69 million resulting in an 80.54% debt weight
Cảnh báo nếuDebt weight exceeding 85.0% or fixed charge coverage falling below 1.5x
Severe top-line RevPAR contraction signals broad leisure travel exhaustion that fixed-cost master lease structures cannot absorb.
Hiện tại:Second quarter corporate convention room mix pacing toward 20% but lower-tier properties requiring all-inclusive packages and international visitation off peak levels
Cảnh báo nếuLas Vegas Strip RevPAR contracting by more than 10.0% year-over-year over two consecutive quarters
| high |
| 6-18 months |
| Management deploys all-inclusive package pricing to support lower-tier room occupancy while leaning into high-margin luxury convention banquet demand.3 |
| Digital gaming customer acquisition cost escalation and market entry friction | medium | 12-36 months | European digital operations inflect toward profitability to partially self-fund international growth in Latin America, containing consolidated cash drain.3 |
Under the moderate discount rate, 6,64 US$ comes from forecast-period earnings and 18,12 US$ from the long-term value, totaling 24,76 US$.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Under the Base scenario, the target reaches $24.22 with an estimated probability of 50.0% and an implied return of -16.4% relative to $28.96 as of $28.96 (as of 2026-10-14). This outcome assumes mid-cycle normalization of operating margins, resilient luxury convention banquet demand on the Las Vegas Strip, steady premium mass gaming performance in Macau, and ongoing share repurchases that compound earnings per share.
Tracks table win and player retention; declines indicate that rival concessionaire promotional reinvestment is eroding market share.
Determines cash available for share retirements after funding required property renovations and meeting contractual obligations.
High convention mix cushions room rates against leisure travel volatility and drives profitable banquet spending.
Inflection in digital operations self-funds international growth, preventing cash drain from land-based resort earnings.
| $18.34B |
| $18.89B |
| $19.36B |
| Operating income | $1.15B | $1.43B | $1.74B | $1.89B | $1.97B |
| NOPAT | $1.03B | $1.29B | $1.57B | $1.70B | $1.78B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $989.91M | $1.23B | $1.50B | $1.63B | $1.70B |
| Revenue growth | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% |
| Tax rate | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Reinvestment rate | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Terminal growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Total debt stands at $30,158.69 million resulting in an 80.54% debt weight, primarily reflecting long-term triple-net master leases.
Fixed lease obligations cannot be reduced during a cyclical downturn, leaving equity value vulnerable to sharp contractions if revenue softens.
Las Vegas Strip Resorts generated $8,441.50 million (48.1%) and China operations contributed $4,464.10 million (25.5%) of consolidated FY2025 revenue of $17,537.68 million.
Performance in these two core markets dictates company-wide cash flow, making regional operations and digital ventures secondary to near-term earnings power.
| Biên |
|---|
| MGM | MGM Resorts International | $7.3B | 17.4x | 0.4x | 15.9x | 18.9% | — |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts Limited | $7.6B | 14.7x | 1.0x | 9.4x | — | 16.5% |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands Corp. | $24.0B | 10.6x | 1.7x | 7.8x | 122.9% | 19.7% |
| BWA | BorgWarner Inc. | $11.9B | 9.9x | 0.8x | 6.7x | 8.1% | 10.6% |
| CZR | Caesars Entertainment Inc. | $6.0B | 40.5x | 0.5x | 9.0x | -10.4% | 17.7% |
| neutral |
| The growth of online sports betting and iGaming through BetMGM and LeoVegas creates digital optionality, but near-term EBITDA losses and international customer acquisition costs restrain immediate consolidated profitability. |
| MGM China operating revenue | MGM China revenue contracting below the FY2025 level of $4,461.74 million on a trailing twelve month basis. | Haircut international growth assumptions and eliminate premium mass expansion value. |
| Free cash flow generation | Annual free cash flow falling below the FY2025 benchmark of $1,460.45 million on a trailing twelve month basis. | Cease share repurchase assumptions and model higher equity dilution. |
