Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

NASDAQ: ODFL · USD

$173

-13.80 (-7.4%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-03

Our latest published analysis: ODFL rated Sell

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$96.6 / share

Potential value

$130 / share

Upside to FV

-46.5%

from $173

Moat

9/10

Wide

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$37.4B
Revenue (ttm)	5.8B
Net income (ttm)	1.2B
EPS (ttm)	$5.57
Shares out	207.4M
P/E (trailing)	31.1x
P/E (forward)	27.3x
Dividend	$1.16 (0.67%)
Volume	4,190,149
Beta	1.20

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 5.8B
Net income (ttm): 1.2B
EPS (ttm): $5.57
P/E (trailing): 31.1x
P/E (forward): 27.3x
Market cap: $37.4B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$5.26B	$6.26B	$5.87B	$5.81B	$5.50B	+1.1%
Gross profit	$1.78B	$2.26B	$2.07B	$2.02B	$1.77B	-0.1%
Operating income	$1.39B	$1.84B	$1.64B	$1.54B	$1.36B	-0.6%
Net income	$1.03B	$1.38B	$1.24B	$1.19B	$1.02B	-0.3%
EPS (diluted)	$8.89	$6.09	$5.63	$5.48	$4.84	-14.1%
EBITDA	$1.65B	$2.12B	$1.97B	$1.90B	$1.73B	+1.1%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$223.8M	$258.9M	$203.2M	$309.7M	$234.8M	+1.2%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	Giữ
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	Giữ
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	Bán
ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	113B	25.3x	5.1x	62.8%	+7.7%	+4.5%	Giữ
ALLE	Allegion plc	15.2B	22.5x	3.5x	19.4%	+8.8%	+7.2%	Giữ
AME	AMETEK Inc.	56.9B	36.3x	7.2x	13.2%	+9.8%	+33.6%	Bán

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$96.57

-46.5% from spot

The Base case reflects a measured mid-cycle recovery. Industrial production stabilizes and retail restocking unfolds gradually, driving revenue growth of 7.60% in FY2026 and 7.86% in FY2027. Operating margins expand moderately from 24.76% in FY2025 to 25.20% in FY2026 and 26.20% in FY2027, reaching a terminal steady-state of 26.00%. Diluted EPS rises from $4.84 in FY2025 to $5.81 in FY2026 and $6.60 in FY2027. Intrinsic valuation centers at $96.57, discounted at a WACC of 9.7408% and terminal P/E of 20.0x.

Revenue growth of 7.60% in FY2026 and 7.86% in FY2027
Operating margin normalizes to 26.00% over the forecast horizon
Diluted EPS of $5.81 in FY2026 and $6.60 in FY2027
Enterprise discount rate WACC of 9.7408% and Ke of 9.7435%
Terminal P/E compresses to 20.0x with 2.50% terminal growth

Bull15%

Price target

$129.73

-28.1% from spot

In the Bull case, customer inventory restocking inflects sharply across North American industrial and retail channels throughout FY2026 and FY2027. Old Dominion leverages its north of 35% excess service center capacity and internal driver academy pipelines to onboard high-yielding freight spillover from embargoed competitors. High incremental margins of 45% to 50% expand operating margins toward 27.5%-28.0%, lifting diluted EPS past $7.00 and supporting the high-end intrinsic value of $129.73.

Accelerating top-line revenue expansion per annum through FY2027 as customer restocking strengthens
Operating margin expands toward 27.5%-28.0% via 45%-50% incremental margins
Diluted EPS reaches $7.00+ by FY2027
Terminal valuation multiple sustains premium over historical peer averages

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($96.57). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.7%	$100	$102	$104	$106	$108
9.2%	$95.7	$97.1	$98.7	$100	$102
9.7%	$91.5	$92.7	$96.6	$95.5	$97.0
10.2%	$87.7	$88.8	$89.9	$91.2	$92.5
10.7%	$84.3	$85.3	$86.3	$87.3	$88.4

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E27.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E34.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE26

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC27.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All ODFL indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

285

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000878927
Company name	Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	679580100
Earnings date	2026-10-28
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	20,591
Employees change	-1,304
Employees growth	-5.96%
Enterprise value	$35.5B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1934
In index	SP500, NASDAQ100
Industry	Trucking
IPO date	1991-10-24
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US6795801009
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-24
Last earnings date	2026-10-28
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2024-03-28
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$35.9B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-02-03
Options	Yes
Price	$173.22
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	4213
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	ODFL
U.S. state	North Carolina
Website	https://www.odfl.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	31.15x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	29.01x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	33.73x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	31.86x
Earnings yield	3.21%
EV/Earnings	30.67x
EV/EBIT	23.15x
EV/EBITDA	18.69x
EV/FCF	31.97x
EV/Sales	6.16x
FCF / EV yield	3.13%
FCF yield	3.09%
Forward EV/Sales	5.6x
Forward P/E	26.41x
Forward P/S	5.67x
Graham number	53.15987
Graham upside	-69.45%
Industry forward P/E	25.16x
Industry P/E	50.74x
Lynch fair value	$27.84
Lynch upside	-84.01%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	32.75x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	26.13x
P/B ratio	8.29x
P/E ratio	31.11x
P/FCF ratio	32.37x
P/OCF ratio	25.88x
P/S ratio	6.24x
PEG ratio	1.7x
Price / tangible book value	7.72x
Price/EBITDA ratio	18.92x
Sector forward P/E	26.24x
Sector P/E	40.28x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	26.6%
EBITDA margin	32.96%
Effective tax rate	24.8%
FCF margin	19.9%
Gross margin	39.88%
Operating margin	26.6%
Pretax margin	26.7%
Profit margin	20.08%
Profit per employee	$56,436
Profitable quarters	122
Profitable years	32
Revenue per employee	$281,032
ROA	16.86%
ROA (5Y)	19.12%
ROCE	28.99%
ROE	26.01%
ROE (5Y)	30.05%
ROIC	27.21%
ROIC (5Y)	31.92%
SBC / revenue	0.23%
Tax / revenue	6.62%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	12.07%
EPS growth (Q)	28.91%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-1.79%
EPS growth 10Y	16.65%
EPS growth 3Y	-0.31%
EPS growth 5Y	6.6%
EPS growth quarters	1
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	42.75%
FCF growth 3Y	19.87%
FCF growth 5Y	12.67%
Gross profit growth	5.35%
Gross profit growth (Q)	16.24%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-0.45%
Gross profit growth 5Y	4.37%
Net income growth	9.9%
Net income growth (Q)	26.87%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-1.95%
Net income growth 3Y	-2.16%
Net income growth 5Y	4.21%
Net income growth quarters	1
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	-5.16%
OCF growth 10Y	8.94%
OCF growth 3Y	-4.06%
OCF growth 5Y	8.55%
Operating income growth	10.43%
Operating income growth (Q)	25.44%
Operating income growth 3Y	-2.28%
Operating income growth 5Y	3.87%
Revenue growth	3.8%
Revenue growth (Q)	13.1%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	2.36%
Revenue growth 10Y	6.86%
Revenue growth 3Y	-0.43%
Revenue growth 5Y	3.3%
Revenue growth quarters	1
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-279.3M
Depreciation and amortization	$367.8M
EBIT	$1.5B
EBITDA	$1.9B
EPS	$5.57
FCF per share	$5.38
Financing cash flow	$-938.9M
Free cash flow	$1.1B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.1B
Gross profit	$2.3B
Income taxes	$383.2M
Investing cash flow	$-195.3M
Net borrowing	$-150M
Net cash flow	$259.9M
Net income	$1.2B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$1.4B
Operating income	$1.5B
Revenue	$5.8B
Stock-based compensation	$12.9M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$22.56
Debt / EBITDA	0.01
Debt / equity	0
Debt / FCF	0.02
Interest coverage	2,227.99
Long-term assets	$4.7B
Long-term liabilities	$639.2M
Net cash (debt)	$446.2M
Net cash / market cap	1.24%
Net debt / EBITDA	-0.23
Net debt / equity	-0.1
Net debt / FCF	-0.4
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$4.4B
Shareholders' equity	$4.7B
Tangible book value	$4.7B
Tangible book value per share	$22.56
Total assets	$5.9B
Total cash	$466.2M
Total debt	$20M
Total liabilities	$1.2B
WACC	10.86%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.01
Current assets	$1.2B
Current liabilities	$583M
Current ratio	2.04
Net working capital	$162.5M
Quick ratio	0.8
Working capital	$608.8M
Working capital turnover	16.05

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	1.75%
Dividend growth	3.57%
Dividend growth (3Y)	13.19%
Dividend growth (5Y)	23.73%
Dividend growth years	8
Dividend payment date	2026-12-16
Dividend payment years	10
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$1.16
Dividend yield	0.67%
Ex-dividend date	2026-12-02
FCF payout ratio	21.58%
Last dividend	$0.29
Payout ratio	22.32%
Shareholder yield	2.42%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	581.58%
10Y return CAGR	21.69%
10Y total return	611.93%
150-day SMA	$206.05
15Y price change	1,967.78%
15Y return CAGR	22.73%
15Y total return	2,059.75%
1D price change	-7.38%
1M price change	0.51%
1M total return	0.51%
1W price change	-7.51%
1W total return	-7.51%
1Y price change	27.4%
1Y return CAGR	28.21%
1Y total return	28.19%
20-day SMA	$183.08
200-day SMA	$201.73
20Y price change	4,032.62%
20Y return CAGR	20.71%
20Y total return	4,216.84%
3M price change	-23.19%
3M total return	-23.07%
3Y price change	-5.45%
3Y return CAGR	-1.27%
3Y total return	-3.77%
50-day SMA	$184.86
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$252.03
52-week high date	2026-06-09
52-week low	$126.01
52-week low date	2025-11-20
5Y price change	7.56%
5Y return CAGR	1.99%
5Y total return	10.37%
6M price change	-21.01%
6M total return	-20.79%
All-time high	$252.03
All-time high date	2026-06-09
All-time low	$0.33
All-time low date	1995-12-26
Average true range (ATR)	$5.95
Average volume	1.8M
Beta (1Y)	0.42
Beta (2Y)	0.96
Beta (5Y)	1.2
Change from 52-week high	-31.27%
Change from 52-week low	37.47%
Change from all-time high	-30.89%
Change from all-time low	52,813.12%
Change from open	-7.13%
Day's gap	-0.27%
Dollar volume	$725.8M
High price	$187.40
Low price	$171.58
Monthly RSI	47.36
Open price	$186.52
Position in 52-week range	10.37%
Premarket change	0%
Premarket close	$187.03
Premarket price	$187.03
Previous close	$187.03
Price vs 150-day SMA	-15.46%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-4.86%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-13.65%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-5.77%
Relative volume	2.31
RSI	37.88
Sharpe ratio	0.74
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	-0
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.15
Sortino ratio	1.24
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.15
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.37
Volume	4.2M
Weekly RSI	39.77
YTD price change	11.09%
YTD total return	11.56%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	185.7M
Float percentage	89.56%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.28%
Shares change (YoY)	-1.75%
Shares held by insiders	10.34%
Shares held by institutions	80.72%
Shares outstanding	207.4M
Short % of float	4.77%
Short % of shares	4.28%
Short ratio	4.5 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	176

Deeper analysis on ODFL

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this ODFL report

What is the latest published ODFL stock rating?

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ODFL analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, lives at /stocks/ODFL/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for ODFL?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03 gives ODFL a fair value of USD 97 and a potential value of USD 130. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the ODFL page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-03). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellODFL · Fair value $96.6-46.5%

Read full analysis →

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

Our latest published analysis: ODFL rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · ODFL

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All ODFL indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on ODFL

Frequently asked questions

Lịch sử xếp hạng

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	8.0
Profitability	6.5
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	7.5
Competitive Moat	9.0
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	8.5