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Bull: ORLY continues aggressive commercial market share capture, sustaining low double-digit earnings growth.
The valuation requires a 14.2% implied growth rate, leaving an 8.6% disconnect against fundamental forecasts.
O'Reilly Automotive is a premier, highly profitable auto parts retailer with a defensive demand profile and significant pricing power. The aging US vehicle fleet and ORLY's unmatched professional DIFM (Do-It-For-Me) supply chain network provide a wide economic moat. However, shares are currently priced for perfection. The valuation demands an aggressive 14.2% implied growth rate, sharply disconnected from fundamental 5.7% forecasts. A heavy strategic capital expenditure cycle is suppressing near-term free cash flow, exposing the equity to severe multiple compression risk.
O'Reilly Automotive is a premier, highly profitable auto parts retailer with a defensive demand profile and significant . The aging US vehicle fleet and ORLY's unmatched professional DIFM (Do-It-For-Me) supply chain network provide a wide . However, shares are currently priced for perfection. The valuation demands an aggressive 14.2% implied growth rate, sharply disconnected from fundamental 5.7% forecasts. A heavy strategic cycle is suppressing near-term , exposing the equity to severe risk.
Unmatched professional DIFM supply chain network
Pricing power through scale and availability
The valuation requires a 14.2% implied growth rate, leaving an 8.6% disconnect against fundamental forecasts.
Sell. Valuation severely disconnected from fundamental cash generation.
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also provides auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. In addition, the company offers enhanced services and programs consisting of used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; referrals to trusted local repair shops; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. It offers its products to do-it-yourself and professional service providers for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. It offers its products under the BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima brand names. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.
A prolonged period of wage inflation combined with a faster-than-expected structural shift toward lower-maintenance electric vehicles structurally depresses revenue growth and compresses operating margins, collapsing the historically elevated multiple.
Growth decelerates as EV adoption shrinks the aftermarket. The multiple aggressively contracts to historical sector averages near 15x, and heavy capex severely drags on cash flow.
The market abruptly reprices the equity from its current ~25x forward multiple down to historical sector averages near 15x as growth normalizes.
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Gross margin compression would indicate loss of supplier rebate power and unfavorable product mix shifts, reducing retail pricing leverage across automotive replacement categories.
Hiện tại:51.6% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuContracts by more than 50 basis points year-over-year in any fiscal year
Unmatched professional DIFM supply chain network
Pricing power through scale and availability
Defensive demand profile linked to aging US vehicle fleet
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Unavailable
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($54.65). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $2.7B after capex $533.5M, with terminal value at 49.2% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.
ORLY continues aggressive commercial market share capture, sustaining low double-digit earnings growth. The market maintains its premium 25x multiple, ignoring medium-term capex drags.
If margins hold, upside is capped by multiple. If margins slip, downside is severe.
If margins hold, upside is capped by multiple. If margins slip, downside is severe.
If margins hold, upside is capped by multiple. If margins slip, downside is severe.
If margins hold, upside is capped by multiple. If margins slip, downside is severe.
Warning level: Contracts by more than 50 basis points year-over-year in any fiscal year. Gross margin compression would indicate loss of supplier rebate power and unfavorable product mix shifts, reducing retail pricing leverage across automotive replacement categories.
Warning level: Drops below 0.95x over any trailing twelve-month period. Sustained capital expenditure requirements without commensurate operational cash flow expansion reduce free cash conversion, limiting the capacity to maintain debt-funded share repurchases.
Warning level: Decelerates below 3.0% over two consecutive quarters. Slowing revenue expansion indicates commercial account saturation and softening do-it-for-me parts demand, compromising market share gains against regional automotive parts distributors.
Warning level: Declines below 28.0% over a four-quarter period. Weakening store productivity and lower inventory turnover reduce capital efficiency across the branch network, impairing the high returns on capital that justify premium valuation multiples.
Warning level: Compresses below 18.0% over two consecutive quarters. Store wage inflation and rising distribution expenses outpacing gross profits create structural operating deleverage, squeezing operating earnings and undermining long-term margin expansion goals.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| Doanh thu | 17.781.992.000 |
|---|---|
| Giá vốn doanh thu | 8.607.851.000 |
| Lợi nhuận gộp | 9.174.141.000 |
| Chi phí hoạt động | 5.713.529.000 |
| Lợi nhuận hoạt động | 3.460.612.000 |
| Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế | -922.403.000 |
| Lợi nhuận ròng | 2.538.209.000 |
| Tổng tài sản | 16.538.253.000 |
|---|---|
| Tiền mặt | 193.793.000 |
| Tài sản ngắn hạn | 6.744.277.000 |
| Tổng nợ phải trả | 17.301.605.000 |
| Nợ ngắn hạn | 8.775.821.000 |
| Thâm hụt vốn chủ sở hữu | 763.352.000 |
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-05-20.
| Kỳ | Doanh thu | EBITDA | Lợi nhuận ròng | Dòng tiền hoạt động | Dòng tiền tự do | Capex | Khấu hao và phân bổ | Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu | Mua lại cổ phiếu | Cổ tức đã trả | Phát hành nợ ròng | Dòng tiền đầu tư | Dòng tiền tài chính | Tiền đầu kỳ | Tiền cuối kỳ | Tiền mặt và đầu tư | Tổng nợ | Biên hoạt động | ROIC | WACC | Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-31 | 13,3 T | 3,3 T | 2,2 T | 3,2 T | 2,8 T | 442,9 Tr | 328,2 Tr | 24,7 Tr | 2,5 T | — | -300 Tr | — | — | — | — | 362,1 Tr | 5,9 T | 21,9% | — | 6,0% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 14,4 T | 3,3 T | 2,2 T | 3,1 T | 2,6 T | 563,3 Tr | 357,9 Tr | 26,5 Tr | 3,3 T | — | 547,3 Tr | — | — | — | — | 108,6 Tr | 6,5 T | 20,5% | — | 8,1% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 15,8 T | 3,6 T | 2,3 T | 3 T | 2 T | 1 T | 409,1 Tr | 27,5 Tr | 3,2 T | — | 1,2 T | — | — | — | — | 279,1 Tr | 7,8 T | 20,2% | — | 7,8% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 16,7 T | 3,7 T | 2,4 T | 3 T | 2 T | 1 T | 461,9 Tr | 28,9 Tr | 2,1 T | — | -48,7 Tr | — | — | — | — | 130,2 Tr | 7,9 T | 19,5% | — | 8,6% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 17,8 T | 4 T | 2,5 T | 2,8 T | 1,6 T | 1,2 T | 511,2 Tr | 35,1 Tr | 2,1 T | — | 488,8 Tr | — | — | — | — | 193,8 Tr | 8,5 T | 19,5% | — | 6,9% | — |
ORLY trades at 25.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 10.4x; EV/EBITDA of 20.7x against a peer median of 7.6x; 6 peers.
Currently in a heavy strategic buildout phase, elevating capex significantly above maintenance levels and suppressing near-term free cash flow.
Aging vehicle fleet drives resilient aftermarket demand.
EV penetration structurally shrinks parts complexity and frequency of replacement.
Currently in a heavy strategic buildout phase, elevating capex significantly above maintenance levels and suppressing near-term free cash flow.
Zero weight. Wait for a wider margin of safety.
Exit existing long positions at current spot pricing, realizing gains before impending multiple mean-reversion.
The valuation requires a 14.2% implied growth rate, leaving an 8.6% disconnect against fundamental forecasts.
Exceptional business quality does not justify paying a perpetual 25x multiple ahead of a capital-intensive buildout.
Sell. Shares are priced for perfection, exposing investors to severe downside risk from multiple compression.
Downside case: The valuation requires a 14.2% implied growth rate, leaving an 8.6% disconnect against fundamental forecasts.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
EV adoption accelerates beyond base assumptions, structurally reducing the size of the addressable aftermarket parts pool and suppressing long-term terminal growth.
Persistent wage inflation and elevated strategic capital expenditures fail to deliver anticipated commercial share gains, breaking the long-term margin profile.
Sustained capital expenditure requirements without commensurate operational cash flow expansion reduce free cash conversion, limiting the capacity to maintain debt-funded share repurchases.
Hiện tại:1.088 as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếuDrops below 0.95x over any trailing twelve-month period
Slowing revenue expansion indicates commercial account saturation and softening do-it-for-me parts demand, compromising market share gains against regional automotive parts distributors.
Hiện tại:6.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuDecelerates below 3.0% over two consecutive quarters
Weakening store productivity and lower inventory turnover reduce capital efficiency across the branch network, impairing the high returns on capital that justify premium valuation multiples.
Hiện tại:35.5% as of 2026-05-20
Cảnh báo nếuDeclines below 28.0% over a four-quarter period
Store wage inflation and rising distribution expenses outpacing gross profits create structural operating deleverage, squeezing operating earnings and undermining long-term margin expansion goals.
Hiện tại:19.5% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Cảnh báo nếuCompresses below 18.0% over two consecutive quarters
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Revenue growth fades to a mature 5.7% trajectory. Operating margins hold firm, but the forward multiple structurally compresses toward a normalized 20x terminal exit.
| Biên |
|---|
| ORLY | O'Reilly Automotive Inc. | $76.2B | 25.4x | 4.2x | 20.7x | — | — |
| AZO | AutoZone Inc. | 19.1x | 2.8x | 16.2x | — | 16.3% | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Company | 11.0x | 0.5x | 9.3x | 1.3% | 5.8% | |
| BWA | BorgWarner Inc. | 10.4x | 0.9x | 7.4x | 7.3% | 9.9% | |
| APTV | Aptiv PLC | 7.8x | 0.5x | 5.7x | 4.1% | 9.9% | |
| LKQ | LKQ Corporation | 7.4x | 0.5x | 7.6x | 8.1% | 7.2% |
