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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
RJF — frequently asked questions
Is Raymond James Financial Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-04, RJF looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 158 USD versus our fair value of 190 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 258 USD. That implies roughly 19.8% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04, gives RJF a fair value of 190 USD and a potential value of 258 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Raymond James Financial Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy RJF now?
Our latest published rating for RJF, analyzed 2026-10-04, is Buy. Raymond James Financial Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 158 USD versus fair value of 190 USD; potential value is 258 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for RJF?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-04 documents Raymond James Financial Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is RJF's rating?
Our latest published rating for RJF, analyzed 2026-10-04, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 190 USD, the potential value of 258 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (158 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyBuy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$158.21
Giá trị hợp lý
$189.51
Giá trị tiềm năng
$258.24
Tính đến
2026-10-02
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Acceleration in Private Client Group adviser recruitment across independent and employee channels combined with an M&A advisory rebound in Capital Markets,.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
A sustained equity market correction exceeding 15% combined with Federal Reserve interest rate cuts reducing the federal funds rate by more than 150 basis points over a 12-to-18 month period.
We assign a Buy rating to Raymond James Financial with a Fair value of $189.51, representing 19.8% upside from the report-date price of $158.21 on October 2, 2026,.3
The house rating is Buy. For an ordinary investor, this indicates that the company offers an attractive risk-adjusted total return profile supported by high-quality recurring advisory revenues, healthy free cash flow conversion, and disciplined capital allocation.
As of October 2, 2026, the shares traded at a report-date price of $158.21. This price stands at a 16.5% discount to our central Fair value of $189.51, offering 19.8% implied upside. Under our constructive operating trajectory, reaches $258.24, offering substantial room for further appreciation if recruiting momentum and capital markets activity accelerate.
The primary risk that would challenge this view is a severe equity market downturn combined with accelerated monetary policy rate cuts. Because the Private Client Group accounts for 64.6% of net revenues ($10,282 million in FY2025), falling client asset valuations would directly reduce quarterly fee billings. Concurrently, yield compression on floating-rate bank assets would squeeze net interest income faster than deposit costs decline. If this occurs, investors would observe consolidated operating margins dropping below the management target threshold of 20% alongside slowing organic asset inflows.4,7
The core reason the investment thesis works is the compounding power of the Private Client Group, where annual organic net new asset production has exceeded 6% year-to-date. Strong adviser recruitment across both employee and independent affiliation options expands client assets under administration. Coupled with management's strict cap on annual non-compensation expenses of approximately $2.3 billion, top-line fee expansion flows through to robust free cash flow ($2,246 million in FY2025). Management deploys this cash into continuous share repurchases—retiring $1.6 billion in common stock over the past 12 months —which permanently shrinks the share count and drives per-share earnings growth faster than top-line revenues.3,4,5
Private Client Group Organic Growth Engine
Private Client Group delivers over 64% of consolidated revenue with organic net new assets expanding at >6% annualized,, supported by robust advisor recruiting pipelines across independent and employee channels.4,7
Strong cash generation of $2,246 million in FY2025 free cash flow funds meaningful share buybacks ($1.6 billion over the past 12 months), lowering diluted share count to 192.36 million and enhancing EPS growth.3,4,5
Expense Discipline and Margin Defense
A disciplined non-compensation cost ceiling of $2.3 billion preserves operating profitability above the firm's 20% operating target even as the company integrates acquisitions and invests in advisor technology.4
Khuyến nghị của hãng
We rate Raymond James Financial a Buy because consistent adviser recruiting in the Private Client Group and disciplined non-compensation cost control generate robust free cash flow that funds significant share repurchases,,.4,5
Tổng quan công ty
Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a financial services holding company headquartered in St. Petersburg, Florida, where it owns 1.25 million square feet of office space in the Carillon Office Park. The firm operates primary technology and operational facilities in Southfield, Michigan, and Denver, Colorado, supporting operations across North America and Europe.
The company delivers financial planning, investment advisory, and securities transaction services to retail clients across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom primarily through its Private Client Group. Financial advisors operate through employee branch networks and independent affiliation options, earning revenue payouts while delivering asset management, mutual fund and annuity distribution, client margin lending, and cash sweep solutions,.
Beyond wealth advisory, the firm operates Raymond James Bank, Capital Markets underwriting and advisory services, Asset Management, and corporate investment activities,. The Other segment captures corporate cash interest, third-party private equity investments, enterprise debt interest, and acquisition-related expenses.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
In a severe macroeconomic downturn combined with significant monetary policy rate reductions and a broad equity market pullback, Private Client Group asset-based fees compress from lower billing baselines while Raymond James Bank net interest margins contract as floating-rate loans reprice downward faster than deposit costs. Despite non-compensation expense discipline capping annual overhead near $2.3 billion, operating leverage over fixed platform costs and adviser payout floors would pressure operating margins toward the 18% to 20% range. Under this stress scenario, valuation falls toward the low-case boundary of $124.18, though substantial balance sheet cash of $11,389 million and modest total debt of $4,545 million protect financial stability.
The downside case assumes prolonged equity market weakness and policy rate reductions that compress banking spreads and dampen asset-based administrative fees. Rising competition for wealth management teams elevates transition payouts, constraining operating margins. This scenario would be confirmed if net new asset growth falls toward stagnation for two consecutive quarters or if banking revenues drop sharply.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Severe equity market correction and wealth fee compression driving operating margin deterioration
Private Client Group generates 64.6% of revenues ($10,282 million in FY2025). A broad equity market drawdown combined with non-compensation overhead of $2.3 billion and adviser payouts compresses consolidated operating margin from 28.66% below the 20% threshold targeted by management.3,4,7
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Trigger
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
01
Private Client Group annualized organic net new asset growth
Stalling or slowing organic asset accumulation signals adviser recruiting fatigue or client attrition, eroding the core wealth compounding engine and requiring a downward revision to baseline revenue growth.
Hiện tại:>6.0% annualized FYTD
Cảnh báo nếu<=2.0% for two consecutive quarters
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
Raymond James Financial possesses a narrow economic moat rooted in moderate switching costs across its Private Client Group client base and an intangible brand and distribution advantage in wealth adviser recruiting,. The core Private Client Group generated $10,282 million in revenue in FY2025, accounting for 64.6% of consolidated revenues of $15,912 million,. Wealth management accounts create substantial friction to departure once clients integrate financial planning, securities lending, and banking solutions with their trusted adviser.
Unlike traditional wirehouse brokerages or pure-play asset managers, Raymond James differentiates itself through a multi-affiliation model that allows advisers to operate as employee advisers, independent contractors, or hybrid RIAs. This structural flexibility, paired with an adviser-first culture, enables consistent recruiting momentum across different firms and communities. Management targets pre-tax operating margins near 20% while investing heavily in growth, generating economic returns on equity of 17% to 20% that exceed its 8.72% cost of equity. Moat durability is reinforced by non-compensation overhead discipline capped at approximately $2.3 billion for the fiscal year.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
The company generates returns comfortably in excess of its cost of capital, sustaining return on equity between 17% and 20% (supported by FY2025 net income of $2,135 million on $15,912 million in revenue). This performance comfortably exceeds the computed cost of equity of 8.72% and computed WACC of 9.83%, confirming positive economic value creation across market cycles.1,6
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Switching costs in wealth management client accounts — Private Client Group client relationships exhibit high retention and switching costs once accounts are integrated across comprehensive wealth planning, advisory fee schedules, and cash sweep accounts, driving $10,282 million in FY2025 segment revenue and net new asset growth exceeding 6% annualized.Moderate
02Adviser distribution network and multi-affiliation platform reputation — The firm's adviser-centric culture and multi-affiliation platform (employee, independent contractor, and RIA custody) create a distinctive brand reputation and distribution network, attracting productive adviser teams and maintaining near-record adviser satisfaction without relying solely on top-dollar upfront transition checks,.Moderate
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Intense industry competition for productive advisers driving upfront transition compensation inflation
medium
12-24 months
Differentiating through adviser tools, superior cultural satisfaction, and flexible affiliation options rather than attempting to outbid competitors solely on transition checks.4
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($189.51). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
The base case reflects steady organic asset gathering across Private Client Group affiliation channels, supported by disciplined non-compensation cost containment. At $158.21, the shares trade at an attractive discount to Fair value of $189.51, offering an implied upside of 19.8%. Under this path, the target reaches $189.51 with a probability of 60.0%, representing an expected return of 19.8%. Disconfirmation would occur if organic asset recruitment decelerates materially over consecutive reporting cycles.
Maintain Buy; Rebalance at normal review checkpoints while verifying Private Client Group adviser retention and quarterly share repurchase progress.
Kích hoạt: Net new asset generation tracks historical pacing, non-compensation expenses align with management targets for the fiscal year, and banking spreads absorb moderate interest rate adjustments.
Results confirming steady asset gathering and disciplined cost containment keep intrinsic compounding on track toward Fair value.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Pause incremental capital deployment and reassess adviser recruiting pipeline stability and consolidated margin durability before adjusting portfolio allocation.
Kích hoạt: Net new assets turn negative across multiple affiliation channels, floating-rate bank asset yields decline faster than deposit costs compress margins, or non-compensation overhead exceeds guidance.
Organic outflow or margin contraction would compromise the core wealth management compounding thesis, requiring reassessment of operating durability.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Operating earnings show high cash conversion, with cash flow from operations fully supporting net income. Capital intensity remains minimal, and share repurchases consistently retire common equity above stock-based compensation issuance. Segment profitability is supported by recurring fee-based wealth assets rather than aggressive balance sheet mark-to-market assumptions or non-operating accrual expansions.
Xu hướng dự báo
Consensus revisions for FY2027 revenue have moved modestly higher following quarterly results, while forward earnings expectations remain steady. Analysts have incorporated sequential expansion in asset management and administrative fees alongside disciplined full-year non-compensation overhead targets.
Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố
01
Chỉ số:
Private Client Group Organic Net New Asset Growth
Hiện tạiExpanding at an annualized pace above historical medians, driven by balanced inflows across employee and independent affiliation options.
In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $2,434 million and free cash flow reached $2,246 million, against capital expenditures of $188 million (capex represents 1.18% of $15,912 million revenue). Free cash flow conversion relative to net income of $2,135 million was 105.2%, reflecting asset-light wealth operations. Non-cash stock-based compensation of $254 million is modest and more than fully retired through open-market repurchases.5,6
Phân bổ vốn
Capital allocation prioritizes shareholder return through share repurchases and common dividends, supplemented by disciplined strategic acquisitions. Over the trailing 12 months, the company repurchased 9.8 million common shares for approximately $1.6 billion, returning $506 million in Q3 2026 alone ($400 million in repurchases at an average price of $152 per share plus dividends). This execution lowered diluted from 206.6 million in FY2025 to 192.36 million shares as of October 2026. Substantial liquidity of $11,389 million in cash against total debt of $4,545 million provides structural flexibility to fund selective platform integrations like Clark Capital.
Returns on capital remain durable, supported by recurring wealth management fees and disciplined non-compensation cost containment capped at approximately $2.3 billion. While third-party reported ROIC of 3.14% is depressed by balance sheet asset inclusion from banking operations, return on equity of 18.42% accurately portrays underlying wealth compounding efficiency.
Return on equity of 18.42% comfortably exceeds the computed cost of equity of 8.72% and computed WACC of 9.83%, confirming sustained economic value creation.
Private Client Group generated $10,282 million in FY2025 revenue (64.6% of total revenue),.
Annuity-like fee revenues provide a stable cash baseline that reliably delivers over $2.2 billion in annual .
Doanh thu mới nhất15,9 T US$CAGR doanh thu +11,8%
Biên hoạt động28,7%9 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất2,2 T US$FY2025
Tiền mặt ròng13,7 T US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu15,9 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−1,9 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp14 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−9,5 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động4,6 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−2,4 T US$Lợi nhuận ròng2,1 T US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
15.912.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
1.884.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
14.028.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
9.467.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
4.561.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-2.426.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
2.135.000.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản88,2 T US$Tiền mặt11,4 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn21,1 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả75,7 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn66 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu12,5 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
88.230.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt
11.389.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
21.098.000.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
75.726.000.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
65.966.000.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
12.504.000.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng2,1 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+195 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+254 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−150 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động2,4 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ14,3 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+2,4 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−4,3 T US$Dòng tiền tài chính+2,4 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá−35 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ14,8 T US$
2,4 T US$ − 188 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 2,2 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
2.135.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
2.584.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
195.000.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
254.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
2.434.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
150.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
19.143.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
14.348.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ tài chính
2.361.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
4.321.000.000 US$
Capex
188.000.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
4.133.000.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
35.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
14.787.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-4.321.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
2.361.000.000 US$
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-04.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2017-09-30
6,5 T US$
1 T US$
636 Tr US$
-125 Tr US$
-315 Tr US$
190 Tr US$
71 Tr US$
109 Tr US$
34 Tr US$
127 Tr US$
—
-3,4 T US$
4,1 T US$
6,5 T US$
7,1 T US$
5,9 T US$
4 T US$
14,2%
—
5,1%
—
2018-09-30
7,5 T US$
1,4 T US$
857 Tr US$
884 Tr US$
750 Tr US$
134 Tr US$
85 Tr US$
99 Tr US$
62 Tr US$
151 Tr US$
—
-3,5 T US$
1,4 T US$
7,1 T US$
5,9 T US$
6,2 T US$
3,3 T US$
17,5%
—
6,3%
—
2019-09-30
8 T US$
1,5 T US$
1 T US$
577 Tr US$
439 Tr US$
138 Tr US$
97 Tr US$
112 Tr US$
778 Tr US$
191 Tr US$
—
-1,9 T US$
1,4 T US$
5,9 T US$
6 T US$
7,1 T US$
25,2 T US$
17,1%
—
3,0%
—
2020-09-30
8,2 T US$
1,2 T US$
818 Tr US$
4,1 T US$
3,9 T US$
124 Tr US$
119 Tr US$
120 Tr US$
272 Tr US$
205 Tr US$
—
-5 T US$
4,6 T US$
6 T US$
9,6 T US$
13 T US$
30,5 T US$
12,9%
—
2,1%
—
2021-09-30
9,9 T US$
1,9 T US$
1,4 T US$
6,6 T US$
6,6 T US$
74 Tr US$
134 Tr US$
132 Tr US$
128 Tr US$
218 Tr US$
—
-5,1 T US$
5,2 T US$
9,6 T US$
16,4 T US$
15,5 T US$
8 Tr US$
18,1%
—
6,0%
—
2022-09-30
11,3 T US$
2,2 T US$
1,5 T US$
72 Tr US$
-19 Tr US$
91 Tr US$
145 Tr US$
192 Tr US$
216 Tr US$
277 Tr US$
58 Tr US$
-7,2 T US$
5,9 T US$
16,4 T US$
14,7 T US$
16,1 T US$
3,9 T US$
17,9%
—
7,3%
—
2023-09-30
13 T US$
7,4 T US$
1,7 T US$
-3,5 T US$
-3,7 T US$
173 Tr US$
165 Tr US$
237 Tr US$
902 Tr US$
355 Tr US$
-191 Tr US$
-274 Tr US$
1,4 T US$
14,7 T US$
12,5 T US$
18,5 T US$
3,5 T US$
55,5%
—
8,1%
—
2024-09-30
14,9 T US$
2,8 T US$
2,1 T US$
2,2 T US$
2 T US$
205 Tr US$
179 Tr US$
254 Tr US$
984 Tr US$
383 Tr US$
-50 Tr US$
-968 Tr US$
438 Tr US$
12,5 T US$
14,3 T US$
19,2 T US$
4 T US$
17,7%
—
7,8%
—
2025-09-30
15,9 T US$
4,8 T US$
2,1 T US$
2,4 T US$
2,2 T US$
188 Tr US$
195 Tr US$
254 Tr US$
1,3 T US$
416 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
-4,3 T US$
2,4 T US$
14,3 T US$
14,8 T US$
18,3 T US$
4,5 T US$
28,7%
—
7,8%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Raymond James Financial Inc.RJF
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý189,51 US$Report-date price158,21 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư70 / 100
T. Rowe Price Group Inc.TROW
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý109,81 US$Report-date price103,54 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư73 / 100
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.AMP
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý609,31 US$Report-date price490,91 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư72 / 100
Raymond James Financial Inc.RJF
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý189,51 US$Report-date price158,21 US$
Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) trades at 11.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 10.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: T. Rowe Price Group Inc., Ameriprise Financial Inc., State Street Corporation and Franklin Resources Inc., as of 2026-10-04.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
The industry capex-to-revenue benchmark stands at 21.0%, whereas the company operates with capital expenditures of $188 million on $15,912 million revenue (1.18%),. Because detailed physical capacity and lead-time indicators are not published for wealth broker-dealers, the industry cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.6
Chu kỳ tăng giá
A cyclical upswing is characterized by rising equity market valuations that lift client assets under administration, robust adviser recruiting pipelines, sequential expansion in asset management and administrative fees, and narrowing buyer-seller valuation spreads that unlock pent-up M&A advisory revenues.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
A cyclical downturn involves prolonged equity market pullbacks that reduce client asset bases, monetary policy easing that compresses floating-rate bank asset yields faster than deposit costs can fall, and intense poaching wars that inflate adviser transition packages.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Migration of advisers toward independent and hybrid wealth models
positive
Wealth management advisers increasingly depart traditional wirehouses in search of equity ownership and multi-affiliation flexibility, directly feeding recruiting pipelines across employee and independent channels,.
The company occupies a differentiated hybrid position between wirehouse conglomerates and boutique RIAs. With $10,282 million in Private Client Group revenue and $3,376 million in Raymond James Bank revenue, it pairs institutional banking and capital markets capabilities with an adviser-first culture, driving organic asset growth exceeding 6% annualized.4,7
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
3-5%
A moderate position sizing of 3-5% reflects high recurring fee revenue in Private Client Group and strong balance sheet liquidity, balanced against sensitivity to equity market cycles and short-term interest rate movements.
Rủi ro
Portfolio risk is managed through position caps at 5%, regular quarterly monitoring of organic asset recruitment, and avoiding concentrated exposure to financial asset-sensitive equities during macro market corrections. Diversification across non-interest fee wealth management ($10,282 million in FY2025) and commercial spread income ($3,376 million in FY2025) limits issuer-specific downside.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$155.00 - $160.00
Initiate base tranche (40-50% of target allocation)
Trading range near $158.21 provides a 16.5% discount to Fair value ($189.51).
$145.00 - $152.00
Add second tranche (30-40% of target allocation)
Coincides with management trailing 12-month buyback execution level ($152 average repurchase price), offering an expanded margin of safety.
The Private Client Group represents an organic growth engine delivering over 64% of consolidated revenues ($10,282 million in FY2025). With net new asset growth tracking above 6% annualized and $1.6 billion in trailing share repurchases, long-term investors benefit from steady compounding and consistent per-share equity value expansion.4,7
Total Return Investor
Buy
Trading at $158.21 as of October 2, 2026, RJF provides 19.8% implied upside to our central Fair value of $189.51. An 11.35x forward P/E multiple provides an attractive entry point given 11% sequential fee growth guidance in wealth management and a strong capital return cushion.3,4
Tactical / Cyclical Investor
Hold
While valuation is appealing, near-term interest rate cuts present yield compression risks for Raymond James Bank floating-rate loans. Cyclical investors may prefer waiting for net interest margin stabilization before adding exposure, while maintaining existing holdings to capture ongoing buybacks.4
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Mua
We recommend building a position in Raymond James Financial at the report-date price of $158.21 as of October 2, 2026. The company offers a compelling 19.8% implied return to our Fair value of $189.51, anchored by robust organic growth in the Private Client Group and disciplined capital allocation.3
Sustained free cash flow generation ($2,246 million in FY2025) provides abundant balance-sheet capacity to retire shares ($1.6 billion repurchased over trailing 12 months), dampening share countdilution and underpinning steady double-digit EPS growth.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Within 12 months
Aggressive rate cuts causing rapid floating-rate bank asset yield compression and NIM erosion
Raymond James Bank generated $3,376 million in FY2025 revenue primarily through floating-rate corporate and securities-based loans. Multiple policy rate reductions re-price earning assets downward faster than deposit costs can fall, triggering an annualized revenue drop in Raymond James Bank below $2.8 billion.4,7
FV impact
-3.4%
The analyst's bear scenario path and multiple as the base case
Trigger
Within 18 months
Peer multiple compression and wealth industry derating across advisory multiples
The company forward P/E multiple sits at 11.35x, while peer AMP trades at 9.50x and TROW trades at 10.14x. In a slowing growth or higher regulatory scrutiny environment, advisory multiples compress toward the peer cohort trough.2,3
A drop in buyback volume below $500 million signals impaired free cash flow generation or capital diversion, halting diluted share retirement and dampening per-share earnings growth.
Rapid asset yield compression on floating-rate corporate and securities-based loans under policy rate cuts outpacing deposit repricing, driving net interest margin contraction.
Hiện tại:$3,376 million in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếu<$2,800 million annualized
05
Non-compensation operating expenses
Excessive platform overhead growth and unmanaged technology or acquisition integration expenses eroding pre-tax operating margins below target ranges.
Hiện tại:$2.3 billion target for the fiscal year
Cảnh báo nếu>$2.5 billion annualized
Policy interest rate cuts compressing floating-rate asset yields faster than bank deposit costs reprice
medium
12-18 months
Maintaining loan portfolio diversification, duration matching, and relying on recurring non-interest fee growth across Private Client Group to offset net interest margin pressure.4
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
How this lens was calculated
Inputs used in this report
The upside case envisions accelerating adviser recruiting across employee and independent channels, driving organic asset growth into the high single digits. A concurrent rebound in M&A advisory pipelines unfreezes capital markets activity, expanding operating margins toward top peer levels. Under this path, the target reaches $258.24 with a probability of 20.0%, representing an implied return of 63.2% toward Potential value of $258.24. Disconfirmation would emerge if transaction backlogs fail to convert as buyer-seller valuation spreads adjust.
03
Chỉ số:
Raymond James Bank Net Interest Spread and Asset Yields
Hiện tạiFloating-rate securities-based and corporate loans face yield compression as short-term policy interest rates decline.
Vì sao quan trọng
Reflects asset sensitivity to policy rate changes. Re-pricing speed of floating-rate loans versus deposit costs determines spread income durability.
04
Chỉ số:
Common Share Repurchase Execution
Hiện tạiActive buyback execution continues to retire common shares at prices below Fair value.
Share buybacks exceed compensation dilution, driving net share reduction
Trailing 12-month share buybacks totaled $1.6 billion (9.8 million shares), far exceeding annual stock-based compensation of $254 million and lowering share count to 192.36 million.
Net share retirement eliminates equity dilution and drives per-share earnings compounding above top-line revenue growth.
Management guided full-year non-compensation expenses to approximately $2.3 billion while integrating Clark Capital.
Disciplined cost caps defend operating profitability near the target 20% to 28% band even during market corrections,.
State Street CorporationSTT
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý174,77 US$Report-date price176,34 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư62 / 100
Biên
RJF
Raymond James Financial Inc.
$30.4B
11.4x
2.0x
18.4%
—
TROW
T. Rowe Price Group Inc.
$22.3B
10.1x
2.9x
7.0x
19.4%
28.7%
AMP
Ameriprise Financial Inc.
$43.4B
9.5x
2.2x
63.4%
30.7%
STT
State Street Corporation
$48.3B
11.4x
3.2x
12.4%
34.3%
BEN
Franklin Resources Inc.
$16.7B
10.3x
1.8x
11.2x
7.9%
13.0%
Technology and AI tool enablement across wealth platforms
neutral
Deployment of artificial intelligence tools enhances adviser productivity in client prospecting and workflow automation, though associated infrastructure and token expenses require ongoing cost discipline.
