Khi được bạn cho phép, chúng tôi sử dụng phân tích giới hạn, chú trọng quyền riêng tư để hiểu hành trình nghiên cứu nào hiệu quả. Chúng tôi không dùng trình theo dõi quảng cáo hoặc ghi lại phiên. Bạn có thể thay đổi lựa chọn này trong Tùy chọn. Đọc Chính sách quyền riêng tư.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
SHW — frequently asked questions
Is The Sherwin-Williams Company overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-27, SHW looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 329 USD versus our fair value of 154 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 176 USD. That implies roughly 53.3% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-27, gives SHW a fair value of 154 USD and a potential value of 176 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for The Sherwin-Williams Company's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy SHW now?
Our latest published rating for SHW, analyzed 2026-09-27, is Sell. The Sherwin-Williams Company looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 329 USD versus fair value of 154 USD; potential value is 176 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for SHW?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-27 documents The Sherwin-Williams Company's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is SHW's rating?
Our latest published rating for SHW, analyzed 2026-09-27, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 154 USD, the potential value of 176 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (329 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâySell
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$329.10
Giá trị hợp lý
$153.67
Giá trị tiềm năng
$176.13
Tính đến
2026-09-25
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
The biggest upside opportunity lies in a sharp cyclical rebound in North American residential housing turnover and commercial completions, coupled with aggressive market share gains in industrial Performance Coatings.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Prolonged North American housing stagnation and commercial construction freeze causing 5-year revenue CAGR to drop below 1.5%.
We assign a Sell rating to The Sherwin-Williams Company as its report-date price of $329.10 on September 25, 2026 trades at an unsustainable 114.2% premium over our Fair value of $153.67.4
Our house rating on Sherwin-Williams is Sell. For an individual investor, this rating indicates that the current equity valuation is disconnected from underlying fundamentals, creating severe asymmetric downside risk where capital is best preserved by exiting existing positions or avoiding new capital allocations.
The report was prepared at a price of $329.10 on September 25, 2026. This report-date price stands substantially above our Fair value of $153.67, representing an upside of -53.31%. Furthermore, even when evaluated against our Potential value of $176.13, which represents the high end of our valuation range under accelerated commercial share gains, the stock trades at an extended 86.9% premium.
The main risk that could challenge our Sell rating is a sharp, unexpected cyclical rebound in North American residential housing turnover and commercial repainting activity. If existing-home sales and residential completions accelerate well beyond current expectations, architectural paint volume across the store network would expand significantly above management's low-single-digit guidance. Investors would observe Paint Stores Group same-store sales accelerating into high single digits alongside robust operating margin expansion toward 17.5% through fixed-store operating leverage, lifting intrinsic valuation toward our Potential value of $176.13.5
Sherwin-Williams builds intrinsic value through its captive Paint Stores Group, which generated $13,605.9M in FY2025 revenue. Controlling more than 5,000 company-operated stores enables direct trade credit, job-site delivery, and precise custom tinting that lock in professional painting contractors who prioritize speed and reliability over paint price. This distribution moat generates consolidated gross margins of 48.85% and $3,451.6M in annual operating cash flow. However, because this earnings power is already fully recognized in our Fair value of $153.67, these operational strengths cannot support the prevailing market price of $329.10.4,5,7,8
Captive retail store distribution network (Paint Stores Group)
Paint Stores Group operates an exclusive, company-owned retail store network that generated $13,605.9M in FY2025, accounting for 57.7% of consolidated net sales. Direct control over distribution locks in commercial painting contractors through job-site delivery, custom trade credit terms, contractor bidding and management tools (ProPlus), and consistent color matching, creating substantial switching barriers that wholesale chemical suppliers and big-box retailers cannot replicate.7,8
Brand equity and proprietary product formulations
Decades of brand leadership and technical coating formulation enable premium price realization across architectural lines, as demonstrated by the rollout of high-end lines such as Emerald Symmetry. Strong brand equity supports regular price increases, including the September architectural price increase, allowing consolidated gross margins to hold at 48.85%.5,7
Localized blending facility network and turnaround speed advantage
The Performance Coatings Group generated $6,821.8M in FY2025. Its localized blending facilities are located in close physical proximity to industrial manufacturing clients, allowing rapid custom batch reformulation and delivery within days or weeks versus competitor lead times of months, securing premium price realization and high retention in general finishing and heavy equipment construction.5,8
Khuyến nghị của hãng
We rate Sherwin-Williams a Sell because the market price of $329.10 incorporates overly aggressive long-term earnings growth expectations that stand far above the company's intrinsic Fair value of $153.67.4
Tổng quan công ty
The Company offers product warranties for certain products. The specific terms and conditions of such warranties vary depending on the product or customer contract requirements.
Management estimated the costs of unsettled product warranty claims based on historical results and experience and included an amount in Other accruals. The Company offers assurance-type product warranties for certain products.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
A severe joint stress test models a confluence of macro and micro headwinds: persistent North American housing stagnation depressing existing-home turnover and architectural repaint volumes, compounding raw material cost inflation across petrochemical resins, monomers, and titanium dioxide, and refinancing hurdles on $15,031.7M in total debt. In this scenario, Paint Stores Group volume contracts as commercial painters face delayed project starts and tight contractor credit, while DIY retail demand remains subdued. Concurrently, input cost increases cannot be fully offset due to competitive price elasticity, compressing consolidated operating margins from 16.15% toward 13.50%. Fixed operating leverage inherent in maintaining over 5,000 captive retail stores magnifies top-line deceleration, reducing operating cash flow conversion. Under higher debt refinancing costs at an elevated pre-tax cost of debt of 5.83% and a strict cost of equity of 9.74%, discretionary capital return through share repurchases ceases, and market multiples contract toward industrial peer levels of 17.0x-18.0x P/E, driving intrinsic equity value substantially below current trading levels.
Petrochemical and titanium dioxide inflation severely compresses gross and operating margins.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Prolonged North American housing stagnation and commercial construction freeze.
Paint Stores Group revenue of $13,605.9M depends on residential turnover and completions, which face ongoing softness. An extended freeze triggers top-line deceleration 5 percentage points below forecast.5,8
FV impact
-3.7%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Sherwin-Williams commands an elite Wide economic moat anchored by its fully integrated downstream retail distribution model. Unlike traditional chemical and specialty materials peers that rely on independent distributors, wholesale channels, or big-box retailers, Sherwin-Williams distributes the majority of its architectural coatings through more than 5,000 company-operated stores in the Paint Stores Group. In FY2025, Paint Stores Group generated $13,605.9M in revenue, representing 57.7% of total consolidated sales of $23,574.3M. This captive footprint creates high switching costs for professional painting contractors who depend on store proximity, early morning opening hours, dedicated job-site delivery, specialized trade credit, and customized digital bidding tools via the ProPlus platform. Contractors develop operational routines centered on specific store branches, making supplier substitution costly in terms of project scheduling and color tinting precision.
The company's competitive advantage extends into industrial specialty coatings through its Performance Coatings Group, which produced $6,821.8M in net sales in FY2025. In industrial coatings, turnaround speed and batch agility serve as critical customer retention drivers. Operating a decentralized network of regional blending facilities located close to customer assembly plants enables Sherwin-Williams to reformulate and deliver custom batches in days or weeks, whereas larger centralized competitors often require several months. This agility converts potential logistical supply bottlenecks into durable switching barriers, enabling surgical pricing implementation and share gains across general industrial, coil, and heavy equipment markets.
These structural advantages generate industry-leading economic profit spreads. Sherwin-Williams delivers an ROIC of 19.87%, substantially exceeding its computed WACC of 8.7545% and moderate cost of equity of 9.5556%. In contrast to wholesale specialty chemical peers such as Air Products & Chemicals (APD), which generates a gross margin of 32.06%, Sherwin-Williams achieved a consolidated gross margin of 48.85% ($11,515.5M gross profit), capturing both manufacturing and retail markups. Furthermore, operating cash flow conversion is exceptional at $3,451.6M relative to net income of $2,568.5M. The captive network's high customer retention and ongoing store additions—with 80 to 100 net new stores planned annually beginning next year —ensure that the moat remains robust across the 10-year stage I horizon.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Sherwin-Williams generates an ROIC of 19.87%, substantially exceeding its computed WACC of 8.7545% and moderate cost of equity of 9.5556% by over 1,000 basis points. This substantial spread demonstrates wide-moat economic value creation sustained by captive distribution pricing power and premium product formulation, generating $11,515.5M in gross profit (48.85% gross margin) on $23,574.3M net sales.2,7
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01Captive retail store distribution network (Paint Stores Group) — Paint Stores Group operates an exclusive, company-owned retail store network that generated $13,605.9M in FY2025, accounting for 57.7% of consolidated net sales. Direct control over distribution locks in commercial painting contractors through job-site delivery, custom trade credit terms, contractor bidding and management tools (ProPlus), and consistent color matching, creating substantial switching barriers that wholesale chemical suppliers and big-box retailers cannot replicate.Wide
02Brand equity and proprietary product formulations — Decades of brand leadership and technical coating formulation enable premium price realization across architectural lines, as demonstrated by the rollout of high-end lines such as Emerald Symmetry. Strong brand equity supports regular price increases, including the September architectural price increase, allowing consolidated gross margins to hold at 48.85%.Wide
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Prolonged stagnation in North American existing-home sales and residential construction completions depressing architectural volume demand.
high
12-24 months
Focusing on commercial repaint, property maintenance contracts, active account wallet expansion, and adding 80 to 100 net new stores beginning next year to outperform overall market completions by 1.5x to 2x.5
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($153.67). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.4B after modeled reinvestment of $790.2M, with terminal value at 76.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Under the base path, Sherwin-Williams maintains steady volume growth across its captive store network, capitalizing on commercial contractor loyalty to outpace broader residential construction completions. While operational execution remains solid, the target price of $153.67 at a 55.0% probability implies a -53.3% return from the share price at $329.10 (as of 2026-09-25), reflecting significant market multiple compression toward Fair value $153.67.
Vigorous rebound in existing home turnover and residential completions driving accelerated repaint demand.
Rapid market share gains in industrial coatings powered by local blending speed advantages.
Operating margin expands toward new peaks on strong and raw material deflation.
§7 Cây quyết định lợi nhuậnEN
Vượt
Maintain Sell; Maintain disciplined exposure; verify whether volume acceleration stems from market share gains rather than temporary channel inventory restocking.
Kích hoạt: Consolidated revenue growth accelerating above guided mid-to-high single digits alongside sequential gross margin expansion and store volume growth exceeding peer market rates.
Even with operational upside, the share price at $329.10 trades at a substantial premium to Fair value $153.67, meaning fundamental beats are already fully priced into the shares.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Sell; Re-examine contractor order patterns and monitor whether September price increases achieve full realization without volume concessions.
Kích hoạt: Financial performance meeting guided revenue growth and earnings targets, with steady contractor store foot traffic and stable raw material inflation realization.
Meeting base expectations leaves the stock vulnerable to valuation multiple compression, as the price at $329.10 exceeds Fair value $153.67.
Hụt
Maintain Sell; Execute position liquidation and avoid capital allocation until market valuation reflects underlying cyclical demand reality.
Kích hoạt: Store volume turning negative, gross margin compressing due to unrecovered raw material feedstock inflation, or contractor credit defaults rising.
Operational misses would accelerate valuation multiple compression toward cyclical peers as market participants reassess premium valuation against elevated debt levels.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Earnings quality is supported by healthy cash conversion where operating cash flow exceeds net income. Working capital management remains disciplined with inventory levels controlled relative to seasonal contractor demand. However, operating earnings durability faces headwinds from rising raw material feedstock costs and the lag in realizing architectural price adjustments across customer contracts.
Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố
01
Chỉ số:
Paint Stores Group volume growth
Hiện tạiGuiding to low-single-digit volume expansion supported by active account growth and contractor loyalty tools.
Operating cash flow was robust at $3,451.6M in FY2025, delivering an exceptional 1.34x conversion ratio relative to GAAP net income of $2,568.5M. Free cash flow reached $2,654.0M after deducting capital expenditures of $797.6M. Cash flow conversion benefits from tight working capital discipline and high inventory turns across the captive store network, although second-half working capital demands typically rise during peak exterior painting season and inventory pre-builds ahead of raw material cost inflation.6,7
Phân bổ vốn
Sherwin-Williams' capital allocation strategy balances network expansion, maintenance reinvestment, dividend payments, and debt obligations. in FY2025 was $797.6M (3.38% of net sales), with normalized estimated at 80% ($638.1M) to support existing store fleet and blending facilities, while growth funds 80 to 100 net new store openings annually. Dividends totaled $3.20 per share, while discretionary share repurchases deploy excess . However, total balance-sheet debt of $15,031.7M under a pre-tax of 5.83% will require dedicated debt service and refinancing allocations over the 2027-2029 maturity window, moderating velocity.
Sherwin-Williams generates an ROIC of 19.87%, demonstrating superior capital efficiency. The company's high ROIC is sustained by the high sales density of its captive retail stores, strong brand pricing power that preserves 48.85% gross margins, and rapid working capital turnover. Over the past decade, operating margins have demonstrated resilience, averaging over 16.0% despite intermittent raw material shocks.
ROIC of 19.87% substantially exceeds the computed WACC of 8.7545% by 1,112 basis points, and exceeds the moderate cost of equity of 9.5556% by 1,031 basis points, verifying exceptional economic value creation.
Captive retail store integration generates premium far exceeding specialty chemical peer averages.
Doanh thu mới nhất23,6 T US$CAGR doanh thu +7,9%
Biên hoạt động16,1%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất2,7 T US$FY2025
Nợ ròng9,5 T US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.30 thg 6, 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu6,8 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−3,5 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp3,3 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−2,1 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động1,2 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−387,3 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng843,6 Tr US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
6.789.300.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
3.451.300.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
3.338.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
2.107.100.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
1.230.900.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-387.300.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
843.600.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản25,9 T US$Tiền mặt207,2 Tr US$Tài sản ngắn hạn6 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả21,3 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn6,9 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu4,6 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
25.901.700.000 US$
Tiền mặt
207.200.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
6.007.400.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
21.303.400.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
6.920.300.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
4.598.300.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng2,6 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+676,9 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+123,5 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác+82,7 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động3,5 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ210,4 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+3,5 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−2,1 T US$Dòng tiền tài chính−1,4 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá−9,9 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ207,2 Tr US$
3,5 T US$ − 797,6 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 2,7 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
2.568.500.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
3.451.600.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
676.900.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
123.500.000 US$
Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác
82.700.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
3.451.600.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
3.662.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
210.400.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
2.066.300.000 US$
Capex
797.600.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
1.268.700.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
1.378.600.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
9.900.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
207.200.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-2.066.300.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-1.378.600.000 US$
Doanh thu theo nhóm kinh doanhTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2026-06-30.
6,8 TTổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo nhóm kinh doanhTỷ trọng
Cost of3,5 T50,8%
Khác3,3 T49,2%
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo nhóm kinh doanh
Doanh thu theo nhóm kinh doanh
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Cost of
3,5 T
50,8%
—
Other
3,3 T
49,2%
—
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-09-27.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
11,9 T US$
1,9 T US$
1,1 T US$
1,3 T US$
1,1 T US$
239 Tr US$
197,5 Tr US$
72,1 Tr US$
—
312,1 Tr US$
—
-303,8 Tr US$
-307,4 Tr US$
—
889,8 Tr US$
889,8 Tr US$
2 T US$
18,3%
—
5,6%
—
2017-12-31
15 T US$
2,2 T US$
1,7 T US$
1,9 T US$
1,7 T US$
222,8 Tr US$
491,8 Tr US$
90,3 Tr US$
—
319 Tr US$
—
-9 T US$
6,5 T US$
889,8 Tr US$
204,2 Tr US$
204,2 Tr US$
9,9 T US$
14,9%
—
5,0%
—
2018-12-31
17,5 T US$
2,3 T US$
1,1 T US$
1,9 T US$
1,7 T US$
251 Tr US$
596,3 Tr US$
82,6 Tr US$
—
322,9 Tr US$
—
-251,6 Tr US$
-1,7 T US$
204,2 Tr US$
155,5 Tr US$
155,5 Tr US$
9 T US$
14,9%
—
5,2%
—
2019-12-31
17,9 T US$
2,9 T US$
1,5 T US$
2,3 T US$
2 T US$
328,9 Tr US$
574,9 Tr US$
101,7 Tr US$
—
420,8 Tr US$
—
-462,6 Tr US$
-1,8 T US$
155,5 Tr US$
161,8 Tr US$
161,8 Tr US$
8,5 T US$
15,7%
—
5,6%
—
2020-12-31
18,4 T US$
3,4 T US$
2 T US$
3,4 T US$
3,1 T US$
303,8 Tr US$
581,4 Tr US$
95,9 Tr US$
—
488 Tr US$
—
-322,4 Tr US$
-3 T US$
161,8 Tr US$
226,6 Tr US$
226,6 Tr US$
8,3 T US$
18,4%
—
4,7%
—
2021-12-31
19,9 T US$
3,2 T US$
1,9 T US$
2,2 T US$
1,9 T US$
372 Tr US$
572,6 Tr US$
97,7 Tr US$
—
587,1 Tr US$
—
-476,4 Tr US$
-1,8 T US$
226,6 Tr US$
165,7 Tr US$
165,7 Tr US$
8,9 T US$
15,5%
—
5,3%
—
2022-12-31
22,1 T US$
3,5 T US$
2 T US$
1,9 T US$
1,3 T US$
644,5 Tr US$
581,1 Tr US$
99,7 Tr US$
883,2 Tr US$
618,5 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
-1,6 T US$
-282,4 Tr US$
165,7 Tr US$
198,8 Tr US$
198,8 Tr US$
9,6 T US$
15,3%
—
7,6%
—
2023-12-31
23,1 T US$
3,7 T US$
2,4 T US$
3,5 T US$
2,6 T US$
888,4 Tr US$
622,5 Tr US$
115,9 Tr US$
1,4 T US$
623,7 Tr US$
-433,8 Tr US$
-1 T US$
-2,4 T US$
198,8 Tr US$
276,8 Tr US$
276,8 Tr US$
9,5 T US$
18,1%
—
7,8%
—
2024-12-31
23,1 T US$
4,5 T US$
2,7 T US$
3,2 T US$
2,1 T US$
1,1 T US$
624 Tr US$
138,1 Tr US$
1,7 T US$
723,4 Tr US$
272,9 Tr US$
-1,2 T US$
-2 T US$
276,8 Tr US$
210,4 Tr US$
210,4 Tr US$
9,2 T US$
16,3%
—
8,5%
—
2025-12-31
23,6 T US$
4,4 T US$
2,6 T US$
3,5 T US$
2,7 T US$
797,6 Tr US$
676,9 Tr US$
123,5 Tr US$
1,7 T US$
789,8 Tr US$
1 T US$
-2,1 T US$
-1,4 T US$
210,4 Tr US$
207,2 Tr US$
207,2 Tr US$
9,7 T US$
16,1%
—
7,7%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
The Sherwin-Williams CompanySHW
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý153,67 US$Report-date price329,1 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư59 / 100
Linde plcLIN
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý266,68 US$Report-date price468,38 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNone
Bảng điểm đầu tư53 / 100
Ecolab Inc.ECL
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý203,99 US$Report-date price273,7 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư62 / 100
The Sherwin-Williams CompanySHW
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý153,67 US$Report-date price329,1 US$
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) trades at 23.8x forward earnings against a peer median of 21.8x. Its EV/EBITDA of 20.0x compares with a peer median of 17.6x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Linde plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals Inc. and Freeport-McMoRan Inc., as of 2026-09-27.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Contraction
The specialty materials industry exhibits a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.55x and capex-to-revenue ratio of 4.10%. Sherwin-Williams maintains disciplined capital additions with FY2025 capex of $797.6M on revenue of $23,574.3M (3.38% of sales), alongside depreciation of $676.9M (capex/depreciation of 1.18x). Broader chemical industry capex indicates late-cycle capacity expansion, while architectural coatings demand faces demand-led cyclical contraction.7
Chu kỳ tăng giá
A bull cycle is characterized by accelerating residential real estate turnover, lower mortgage rates spurring existing-home sales and remodel activity, robust non-residential commercial building maintenance, and expansion in industrial manufacturing. In this environment, paint gallon volume demand expands strongly, allowing coatings manufacturers to achieve operating leverage across captive retail store networks, push through positive price/mix realization, and expand operating margins.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
A bear cycle in architectural and industrial coatings is triggered by prolonged high mortgage interest rates that lock homeowners in place, causing North American existing-home sales and residential remodel turnover to stagnate. Under this regime, commercial project completions slow, DIY demand weakens, and industrial original equipment manufacturing contracts. Concurrently, petrochemical supply shocks drive up input costs for resins, monomers, and pigments, resulting in margin contraction as fixed retail store operating expenses deleverage.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Aging United States housing stock driving non-discretionary architectural repaint demand
positive
The median age of owner-occupied housing units in the United States exceeds 40 years, necessitating regular exterior and interior architectural repaint maintenance cycles regardless of new construction velocity, creating durable baseline gallon demand.
Professional painter market share expansion over consumer DIY paint application
positive
Commercial and residential property owners increasingly hire professional painting contractors rather than undertaking do-it-yourself painting, shifting volume toward dedicated commercial paint stores that cater to professional contractors with custom tinting, credit, and delivery.
Định vị
Sherwin-Williams is positioned at the pinnacle of the architectural coatings industry in North America through its captive network of over 5,000 Paint Stores, insulating the company from upstream chemical commodity swings and downstream big-box retailer margin squeeze. By controlling retail distribution directly, Sherwin-Williams captures both manufacturing and retail distribution margins, allowing it to sustain 48.85% gross margins and outperform underlying market demand by 1.5x to 2x. In industrial coatings, localized blending infrastructure provides unmatched speed, positioning the firm to take share from larger, slower competitors during industrial demand recovery.5,7
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
0%
With the investment committee establishing a Sell rating and the share price trading at a 114.2% premium to synthesized Fair value of $153.67 relative to the analysis price of $329.10, zero capital allocation is recommended.4
Rủi ro
Risk management requires immediate capital preservation. Sherwin-Williams is an exceptionally well-run business with a Wide economic moat, but its current market valuation prices in unattainable perpetual growth and multiple permanence. Investors should eliminate equity exposure and avoid dip-buying until the market multiple reconciles with cyclical reality.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
Above Potential value ceiling of $176.13
Avoid / Do not accumulate
The stock trades at an extreme premium to fair value; purchasing shares above the potential value ceiling exposes capital to severe multiple contraction risk.
Near Fair value midpoint of $153.67
Re-evaluate fundamental risk
A pullback to synthesized Fair value of $153.67 would eliminate the market premium and warrant fresh evaluation of the cyclical growth trajectory.
Confirm structural impairment of the captive retail distribution moat and reduce terminal earnings expectations.
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Value Investor
Avoid
Trading at a 114.2% premium to our Fair value of $153.67 and a forward P/E of 23.75x, the stock offers negative margin of safety and significant downside risk.4
Growth Investor
Avoid
Even assuming consensus FY2027 diluted EPS of $13.60, the implied 10-year EPS growth hurdle embedded in the $329.10 share price is 12.83% annually, which is nearly 10 percentage points above historical revenue growth of 2.10%.1,4
Income Investor
Avoid
A low current dividend payout of $3.20 per share yields less than 1.0% on the report-date price of $329.10, while total debt of $15.03B requires debt service prioritization over dividend acceleration.4
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Bán
Sell existing positions and avoid initiating new capital commitments in Sherwin-Williams. At the report-date price of $329.10 on September 25, 2026, the equity trades at an extreme 114.2% premium over our Fair value of $153.67, offering an upside of -53.31%.4
While Sherwin-Williams possesses an exceptional competitive moat anchored by its captive Paint Stores Group and achieves a superior 19.87% ROIC, current market pricing discounts unrealistically aggressive long-term compound growth that leaves zero margin of safety against cyclical housing slowdowns or raw material inflation headwinds.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-09-27 · Published 2026-09-27 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 1 figuresCited in Quan điểm nhà đầu tư
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Valuation multiples re-rate lower toward cyclical chemical peers under elevated debt refinancing burdens.
The downside scenario reflects a prolonged stagnation in North American residential real estate turnover combined with rising petrochemical input costs that cannot be fully offset through contractor pricing. High debt levels and operating deleverage across the captive store network contract profitability, causing market multiples to compress toward specialty chemical peer levels.
Persistent petrochemical and titanium dioxide inflation squeeze with contractor pricing pushback.
Operating margins dropped to 14.89% in 2018. With management raising inflation outlook and price hikes delayed to September, input cost spikes reduce operating margin by 300 bps below the 16.15% current level.4,5
FV impact
-3.2%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Multiple re-rating toward cyclical industrial chemical peer multiples due to high debt burden.
Peers with significant industrial exposure trade at 17.46x (FCX) and 19.52x (APD). High debt of $15,031.7M and moderating growth compress SHW's terminal multiple by 20% from the assumed 21.0x.4
FV impact
-2.5%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Higher-for-longer interest rate regime and rising credit spread increasing cost of capital.
Severe erosion of the economic profit spread above WACC of 8.7545% and moderate Ke of 9.5556%, signaling structural moat decay.
Hiện tại:19.87% in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuBelow 12.00% in any trailing 12-month period
03
Localized blending facility network and turnaround speed advantage — The Performance Coatings Group generated $6,821.8M in FY2025. Its localized blending facilities are located in close physical proximity to industrial manufacturing clients, allowing rapid custom batch reformulation and delivery within days or weeks versus competitor lead times of months, securing premium price realization and high retention in general finishing and heavy equipment construction.
Moderate
Petrochemical monomer, resin, solvent, and titanium dioxide raw material cost spikes eroding gross profit margins.
medium
6-12 months
Demonstrated pricing power through disciplined price hikes, including the September architectural increase and surgical industrial contract indexing.5
Big-box home improvement retailers expanding pro-contractor discount programs and exclusive private-label architectural coatings.
low
24-36 months
Maintaining strategic partnerships with select big-box retailers (Lowe's, Menards) for dedicated consumer lines while focusing core capital investments on proprietary store contractor services.5
In the bull path, a sharp recovery in North American housing turnover drives surging architectural repaint demand, while the Performance Coatings Group accelerates industrial account wins through rapid local blending batch delivery. Supported by expanding operating margins and accelerated capital returns, the target price reaches $176.13 with a 20.0% probability, yielding a -46.5% return compared to the share price at $329.10 (as of 2026-09-25).
Directly determines gross margin trajectory and tests whether pricing increases can offset higher formulation costs.
03
Chỉ số:
Realization glide path of architectural price hikes
Hiện tạiArchitectural price increases implemented in September with realization expected to extend across upcoming quarters.
Vì sao quan trọng
Price realization protects operating profit margins and reveals contractor price tolerance during housing market turnover softness.
04
Chỉ số:
Performance Coatings Group order turnaround and new account wins
Hiện tạiGrowth in general finishing and heavy equipment construction offsetting core erosion in transportation and energy end-markets.
Vì sao quan trọng
Demonstrates industrial moat strength by converting rapid delivery and color matching into premium pricing and market share.
Paint Stores Group delivered $13,605.9M in revenue (57.7% of total sales), supporting consolidated gross profit of $11,515.5M (48.85% gross margin).
Direct retail distribution captures retail markup that chemical peers concede to third-party distributors, insulating consolidated profitability from commodity cost swings.
Operating cash flow of $3,451.6M exceeded net income of $2,568.5M by $883.1M in FY2025, yielding a conversion rate of 134.4%.
High-quality cash generation fully funds annual capex requirements of $797.6M and sustains discretionary capital returns across economic cycles.
Substantial leverage creates refinancing headwinds that limit financial flexibility.
Total debt of $15,031.7M as of September 27, 2026 carries a pre-tax cost of debt of 5.83% with debt weighting at 15.84%.
Refinancing upcoming debt maturities in a higher-for-longer rate environment will increase annual interest expense, capping equity multiple expansion relative to chemical peers.
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.APD
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý251,01 US$Report-date price273,33 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư49 / 100
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.FCX
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý32,53 US$Report-date price72,31 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư59 / 100
Biên
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
$79.9B
23.8x
3.3x
20.0x
65.1%
—
LIN
Linde plc
$216.6B
24.0x
6.1x
17.5x
18.4%
28.1%
ECL
Ecolab Inc.
$78.3B
29.7x
4.7x
21.1x
22.0%
18.5%
APD
Air Products and Chemicals Inc.
$62.7B
19.5x
5.0x
17.8x
0.0%
25.5%
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
$103.8B
17.5x
4.0x
12.8x
14.8%
33.4%
Regulatory transition toward low-VOC and sustainable waterborne chemical formulations
positive
Tightening environmental regulations regarding volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and chemical solvents favor large-scale formulators with extensive R&D capabilities capable of engineering compliant, high-durability waterborne coatings.
