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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
SNPS — frequently asked questions
Is Synopsys Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-20, SNPS looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 451 USD versus our fair value of 382 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 466 USD. That implies roughly 15.2% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-20, gives SNPS a fair value of 382 USD and a potential value of 466 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Synopsys Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy SNPS now?
Our latest published rating for SNPS, analyzed 2026-10-20, is Reduce. Synopsys Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 451 USD versus fair value of 382 USD; potential value is 466 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for SNPS?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-20 documents Synopsys Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is SNPS's rating?
Our latest published rating for SNPS, analyzed 2026-10-20, is Reduce, with a published moat assessment of 9.2/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 382 USD, the potential value of 466 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (451 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyReduce
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$450.62
Giá trị hợp lý
$382.30
Giá trị tiềm năng
$465.97
Tính đến
2026-10-20
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Rapid monetization of autonomous agentic AI engineering workflows and doubling of die-to-die chiplet IP design wins, which could expand customer contract values and drive fair value toward Potential value at $465.97.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Escalation of US export controls that halts EDA software license renewals, emulation hardware shipments, and advanced IP licensing to Chinese semiconductor design entities.
While Synopsys reinforces its silicon-to-systems duopoly through Ansys, the equity trades at $450.62 with upside to Fair value of -15.2% relative to $382.30, warranting a Reduce stance to derisk exposure into valuation overextension.
Synopsys continues to demonstrate solid operational performance across its Design Automation and Design IP core franchises. Raised full-year FY2026 guidance reflects broad-based strength across EDA, IP, and Ansys. The acquisition of Ansys expands top line scale and establishes a unified platform for advanced packaging.5
Despite operational tailwinds, valuation has outpaced underlying economic fundamentals. At $450.62 (as of 2026-10-20), Synopsys trades at 23.26x forward earnings, presenting upside to Fair value of -15.2% against $382.30. Market expectations require aggressive long-term earnings growth that leaves no for operational execution or digestion.
Furthermore, post-merger integration risks and geopolitical overhangs skew the risk-reward profile unfavorably. Total debt stands at $10.84B, lifting debt weight to 11.15% and computed WACC to 9.82%. Simultaneously, tightening export restrictions threaten China revenue, which accounted for $814.32M in FY2025 of total sales. Consequently, we adopt a Reduce recommendation.2,6,7
Mission-Critical EDA Duopoly and High Switching Costs
Synopsys and Cadence form an indispensable duopoly in chip synthesis and place-and-route software. Proprietary foundry Process Design Kit calibrations create insurmountable switching costs for advanced silicon tape-outs.5
System-Level Expansion via Ansys Multi-Physics Integration
The acquisition of Ansys establishes an integrated silicon-to-systems design platform, enabling electro-thermal and structural co-design essential for advanced multi-die packaging.5
Agentic AI Engineering and Advanced Packaging Secular Tailwinds
Customer adoption of agentic AI engineering workflows increases software compute consumption, while die-to-die interface IP design wins doubled over the past twelve months.5
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Reduce. Excellent business quality and robust recurring cash flows are fully priced into the equity, leaving an unfavorable asymmetry skewed by post-merger leverage and export control risks.
Tổng quan công ty
Synopsys, Inc. is a global leader in electronic design automation software, semiconductor intellectual property, and multi-physics simulation solutions. The company provides critical software tools and pre-designed circuits required by semiconductor engineers and systems designers to create, verify, and manufacture complex integrated circuits and electronic systems.
The business operates through two principal segments: Design Automation and Design IP. Design Automation encompasses logic design, verification hardware and software, manufacturing software, and the integrated physics simulation solutions of Ansys. Design IP provides pre-designed interface, memory, and security IP blocks essential for building high-performance compute architectures and advanced packages.
Synopsys serves leading fabless semiconductor designers, integrated device manufacturers, foundries, and systems companies worldwide. Geographically, revenue is led by the United States ($3,100.10M in FY2025), followed by Other International ($1,304.24M), South Korea ($947.00M), Europe ($888.52M), and China ($814.32M).
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
In a joint stress scenario compounding export control restrictions in China, integration margin drag, and multiple compression, Synopsys's cash flow durability is tested by its $10.84B total debt and ongoing stock-based compensation ($893.29M in FY2025). Intangible asset amortization ($1,210.29M through nine months of FY2026) depresses reported GAAP operating margins, bounding downside intrinsic valuation to the lower end of our fair value range at $318.33.
In the downside scenario, geopolitical export restrictions force a sharp contraction in China revenue, Ansys integration incurs prolonged operational friction, and semiconductor design start activity moderates. Five-year EPS growth decelerates to 8.5%, normalized operating margins stall below 26.5%, and multiple compression reflects tech peer multiples. Intrinsic earnings power faces substantial qualitative compression under persistent debt servicing costs.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Severe Geopolitical Export Control Escalation Halts China Licensing and Chiplet Tape-Outs
Geopolitical export controls escalate to restrict advanced EDA software and IP licenses to China, triggering a rapid contraction in regional licensing revenue. In FY2025, China generated $814.32M, accounting for 11.5% of total revenue. A drop below $500M reflects a >38% contraction due to strict Entity List sanctions, shocking 5-year revenue growth by -5 percentage points and impairing fair value by -24.5%.6,7
FV impact
-2.7%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Signals severe export restriction impact and design tape-out bans on Chinese customers, knocking 5 percentage points off 5-year revenue CAGR and shocking fair value by -24.5%.
Synopsys commands an entrenched wide economic moat anchored in its mission-critical Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software duopoly alongside primary rival Cadence Design Systems. The company's Design Automation tools (generating $5,302.34M in FY2025 revenue) span the entire semiconductor engineering lifecycle, from logic synthesis and place-and-route to sign-off physical verification. Because semiconductor foundries integrate their proprietary Process Design Kits directly into Synopsys algorithms, chip designers face prohibitive switching costs: altering established software tools risks multi-million-dollar wafer re-spins, lost time-to-market windows, and catastrophic design flaws.
The strategic acquisition of Ansys structurally widens this moat by uniting electronic design with advanced multi-physics simulation. As semiconductor architecture transitions from monolithic planar dies to 3DIC chiplets and heterogeneous packaging, thermal-mechanical stress and electromagnetic interference become first-order limiting constraints. Integrating Ansys's finite element analysis directly into Synopsys's physical implementation flows creates an integrated 'silicon-to-systems' software suite that standalone point tools cannot replicate.
Furthermore, Synopsys's Design IP business ($1,751.84M in FY2025 revenue) reinforces platform stickiness through an extensive library of pre-verified interface blocks. Management confirmed that die-to-die IP design wins doubled over the past 12 months, driven by advanced packaging requirements for generative AI accelerators. These entrenched IP blocks deepen customer reliance and create powerful multi-year licensing renewals across hyperscalers and fabless semiconductor leaders.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Synopsys's wide economic moat enables strong economic rents, though reported FY2025 GAAP ROE fell to 3.66% and GAAP operating margin fell to 12.97% due to transaction costs and intangible asset amortization. However, guided FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin of 41.5% demonstrates exceptional underlying pricing power that exceeds the computed 9.82% cost of capital.2,6
9.2/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01High Switching Costs Embedded in Foundry Process Design Kits (PDKs) — Semiconductor foundries calibrate manufacturing process design kits (PDKs) specifically to Synopsys's synthesis and sign-off tools, making customer replacement practically impossible without risking catastrophic silicon tape-out failures.Wide
02Platform Breadth and System-Level Multi-Physics Simulation Integration — Combining Ansys's leading physics simulation capabilities with Synopsys's EDA software enables end-to-end electro-thermal co-design, which point-solution competitors cannot duplicate.Wide
03Ecosystem Network Effects and Interface IP Installed Base — Synopsys's interface IP portfolio and doubling of die-to-die design wins over the past 12 months create strong standard-setting network effects across AI compute and memory interfaces.Moderate
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Geopolitical Export Restrictions and Customer Disruption in China ($814.32M in FY2025 revenue)
high
12-24 months
Diversifying geographic growth across North America ($3,100.10M in FY2025), South Korea ($947.00M), and Europe ($888.52M), while reallocating IP development toward leading-edge domestic and allied programs.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($382.30). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
The modal base case reflects steady execution of the core EDA duopoly and successful baseline integration of Ansys. Revenue expands from $7.05B in FY2025 to $9.72B in FY2026 (including $2.98B from Ansys), and reaches $11.03B in FY2027. Normalized operating margin expands steadily from 25.5% in FY2026 to 32.5% by FY2030. Discounted at a 10.12% cost of equity and 9.82% WACC, the synthesized fair value midpoint is $382.30.1,2,5,6
Even in a strong beat, valuation remains stretched with shares trading at $450.62 relative to $382.30, offering upside to Fair value of -15.2%. Operating outperformance confirms core franchise strength but does not eliminate the substantial valuation premium.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Reduce; Keep the underweight posture; monitor post-merger integration progress and debt paydown milestones.
Kích hoạt: Q4 FY2026 revenue of $2,530M-$2,580M and non-GAAP EPS of $4.10-$4.16
In-line results confirm the operating trajectory in line with raised guidance, while the valuation continues to offer upside to Fair value of -15.2% at $450.62 relative to $382.30, sustaining the existing discipline.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Accelerate liquidation of remaining holdings to eliminate downside exposure.
A miss would indicate emerging friction in Ansys integration or early impact from China export controls, falsifying elevated growth expectations and accelerating multiple compression toward conservative downside valuation support.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Earnings quality exhibits a sharp divergence between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics due to the Ansys acquisition. In Q3 FY2026, GAAP net income of $545.80M ($2.84 per share) compares to non-GAAP net income of $752.49M ($3.91 per share), with the difference driven by $402.43M in acquired intangible amortization and $231.60M in stock-based compensation. For full-year FY2026, GAAP EPS is guided to $3.84-$4.08 versus non-GAAP EPS of $15.04-$15.10. While operating cash flow of ~$2,800M and free cash flow of ~$2,600M confirm robust underlying cash generation, heavy SBC (~$950M) and amortization ($1,610M-$1,615M) represent substantial economic costs that dilute GAAP quality.
Xu hướng dự báo
Consensus estimates have trended upward following the Q3 FY2026 earnings release on August 26, 2026. FY2026 consensus EPS increased by 2.41% from $14.79 to $15.14, while FY2027 consensus EPS rose 7.64% over 30 days to $18.58. Full-year FY2026 revenue consensus increased to $9,720.00M.1
Hiện tại8.5% year-over-year in Q3 FY2026 against a tough 16% compare in Q3 FY2025.
Vì sao quan trọng
Management guided EDA to accelerate in Q4 and deliver double-digit growth for full-year FY2026. A material deceleration below guided double-digit rates would indicate market share loss or design start fatigue.5
Synopsys demonstrates resilient cash flow generation driven by multi-year recurring software licenses. Free cash flow for FY2026 is guided to ~$2,600M on operating cash flow of ~$2,800M and capital expenditures of ~$225M, representing a strong expansion from FY2016 operating cash flow of $586.64M and FCF of $519.73M. Nine-month FY2026 operating cash flow reached $2,298.60M, providing ample liquidity to service debt obligations.4,8
Phân bổ vốn
Capital allocation is dominated by post-merger integration of Ansys and balance-sheet deleveraging. In the first nine months of FY2026, Synopsys repaid $3,463.73M of debt while raising $2,000.0M from a private placement common stock issuance. Total debt stands at $10.84B as of October 20, 2026. On October 5, 2026, the company entered into a $1.0B accelerated share repurchase agreement with JPMorgan Chase. With no cash dividend paid, capital allocation prioritizes debt retirement, essential R&D reinvestment, and mitigating .
Reported GAAP return on capital dipped following the Ansys acquisition due to the addition of $26.83B in goodwill and $11.46B in intangible assets as of July 31, 2026, alongside heavy intangible amortization ($1,210.29M in 9M FY2026). However, underlying cash operating profitability is improving, with full-year FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin guided to ~41.5% and house model forecasting operating margin expanding to 32.5% by FY2030.
Current economic return generation is temporarily depressed on a GAAP basis (ROE of 3.66% in FY2025) relative to the computed WACC of 9.82%, but non-GAAP operating returns of ~41.5% substantially exceed the cost of capital, reflecting high underlying economic rents.
Ansys Acquisition Transforms Scale but Adds Heavy Debt and Amortization Drag
Full-year FY2026 revenue is guided to $9,690M-$9,740M ($9.72B midpoint) including $2.98B from Ansys, while total debt stands at $10.84B and intangible amortization totals $1,610M-$1,615M for FY2026.
Doanh thu mới nhất7,1 T US$CAGR doanh thu +12,6%
Biên hoạt động13,0%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất1,3 T US$FY2025
Nợ ròng10,5 T US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu7,1 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−1,6 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp5,4 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−4,5 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động914,9 Tr US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế+417,3 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng1,3 T US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
7.054.178.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
1.623.549.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
5.430.629.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
4.515.702.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
914.927.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
417.293.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.332.220.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản48,2 T US$Tiền mặt2,9 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn6 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả19,9 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn3,7 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu28,3 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
48.224.461.000 US$
Tiền mặt
2.888.030.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
6.012.102.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
19.897.446.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
3.722.494.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
28.327.015.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng1,3 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+660,4 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+893,3 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−1,4 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động1,5 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ3,9 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+1,5 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−15,9 T US$Dòng tiền tài chính+13,4 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá+1,9 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ2,9 T US$
1,5 T US$ − 169,5 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 1,3 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.332.220.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
2.885.944.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
660.430.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
893.294.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
1.518.608.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
1.367.336.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
18.774.990.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
3.898.729.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ tài chính
13.355.757.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
1.896.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
15.881.269.000 US$
Capex
169.454.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
15.711.815.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
2.893.721.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-15.881.269.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
13.355.757.000 US$
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-10-31.
7,1 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng
Design Automation5,3 T US$75,2%+25,6% so với cùng kỳ
Design IP1,8 T US$24,8%−8,1% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2025-12-22 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Design Automation
5,3 T US$
75,2%
25,6%
Design IP
1,8 T US$
24,8%
-8,1%
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-10-31.
7,1 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
United States3,1 T US$43,9%+13,2% so với cùng kỳ
Khác1,3 T US$18,5%+29,1% so với cùng kỳ
South Korea947 Tr US$13,4%+22,5% so với cùng kỳ
Europe888,5 Tr US$12,6%+44,6% so với cùng kỳ
China814,3 Tr US$11,5%−17,7% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2025-12-22 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
United States
3,1 T US$
43,9%
13,2%
Other
1,3 T US$
18,5%
29,1%
South Korea
947 Tr US$
13,4%
22,5%
Europe
888,5 Tr US$
12,6%
44,6%
China
814,3 Tr US$
11,5%
-17,7%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-20.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-10-31
2,4 T US$
540,4 Tr US$
266,8 Tr US$
586,6 Tr US$
519,7 Tr US$
66,9 Tr US$
207 Tr US$
97,6 Tr US$
400 Tr US$
185 Tr US$
—
-142,7 Tr US$
-306,9 Tr US$
—
980,4 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
205 Tr US$
13,1%
—
6,1%
—
2017-10-31
2,7 T US$
579,8 Tr US$
136,6 Tr US$
632,5 Tr US$
562,2 Tr US$
70,3 Tr US$
189,4 Tr US$
108,3 Tr US$
380 Tr US$
320 Tr US$
—
-189,3 Tr US$
-373,1 Tr US$
980,4 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
1 T US$
144 Tr US$
12,8%
—
6,6%
—
2018-10-31
3,1 T US$
588,4 Tr US$
432,5 Tr US$
424,4 Tr US$
325,4 Tr US$
99 Tr US$
209,2 Tr US$
140 Tr US$
400 Tr US$
620,6 Tr US$
—
-743,5 Tr US$
5,1 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
725 Tr US$
723,1 Tr US$
469,3 Tr US$
11,5%
—
7,7%
—
2019-10-31
3,4 T US$
758,8 Tr US$
532,4 Tr US$
800,5 Tr US$
602,4 Tr US$
198,1 Tr US$
201,7 Tr US$
155 Tr US$
329,2 Tr US$
192,9 Tr US$
—
-235,9 Tr US$
-561,9 Tr US$
725 Tr US$
730,5 Tr US$
728,6 Tr US$
137,7 Tr US$
15,5%
—
6,7%
—
2020-10-31
3,7 T US$
853,3 Tr US$
664,3 Tr US$
991,3 Tr US$
836,6 Tr US$
154,7 Tr US$
210 Tr US$
248,6 Tr US$
242,1 Tr US$
276,5 Tr US$
—
-360,4 Tr US$
-140,6 Tr US$
730,5 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
1,2 T US$
663,5 Tr US$
16,8%
—
5,2%
—
2021-10-31
4,2 T US$
1 T US$
757,5 Tr US$
1,5 T US$
1,4 T US$
93,8 Tr US$
203,7 Tr US$
345,3 Tr US$
753,1 Tr US$
—
—
-549 Tr US$
-748,7 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,6 T US$
666,8 Tr US$
17,5%
—
5,9%
—
2022-10-31
4,6 T US$
1,3 T US$
984,6 Tr US$
1,7 T US$
1,6 T US$
136,6 Tr US$
228,4 Tr US$
459 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
—
-76,8 Tr US$
-572,6 Tr US$
-1,1 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,6 T US$
656,4 Tr US$
24,9%
—
8,8%
—
2023-10-31
5,3 T US$
1,6 T US$
1,2 T US$
1,7 T US$
1,5 T US$
189,6 Tr US$
247,1 Tr US$
563,3 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
—
-2,6 Tr US$
-482,1 Tr US$
-1,2 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,6 T US$
677,6 Tr US$
23,9%
—
9,8%
—
2024-10-31
6,1 T US$
1,8 T US$
2,3 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,3 T US$
139,5 Tr US$
295,1 Tr US$
692,3 Tr US$
0 US$
—
-2,6 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
-181,3 Tr US$
1,4 T US$
3,9 T US$
4,1 T US$
684,5 Tr US$
22,1%
—
9,2%
—
2025-10-31
7,1 T US$
2,5 T US$
1,3 T US$
1,5 T US$
1,3 T US$
169,5 Tr US$
660,4 Tr US$
893,3 Tr US$
0 US$
—
13,5 T US$
-15,9 T US$
13,4 T US$
3,9 T US$
2,9 T US$
3 T US$
13,5 T US$
13,0%
—
9,5%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Synopsys Inc.SNPS
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý382,3 US$Report-date price450,62 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư62 / 100
NetApp, Inc.NTAP
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý145,24 US$Report-date price226,27 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư64 / 100
Palo Alto Networks Inc.PANW
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý56,88 US$Report-date price374,74 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư60 / 100
Synopsys Inc.SNPS
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý382,3 US$Report-date price450,62 US$
Synopsys Inc. (SNPS) trades at 23.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 45.5x compares with a peer median of 18.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: NetApp Inc., Palo Alto Networks Inc., Oracle Corporation and VeriSign Inc., as of 2026-10-20.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
The technology software and semiconductor industry exhibits an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 0.178 (17.8%) and an industry capex-to-depreciation ratio of 2.45, indicating active capital investment into compute infrastructure and advanced node tooling. Note that industry capacity, supply, and lead-time metrics remain evidence-limited, making this view primarily demand-led.
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Semiconductor design activity surges driven by generative AI silicon customization, 3DIC chiplet adoption, and hyperscaler custom silicon programs, accelerating demand for EDA licenses and interface IP.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
Semiconductor design start pauses, foundry wafer capex cuts, and geopolitical export restrictions reduce R&D license renewals and delay tape-out timelines, particularly across China and consumer electronics.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Shift to 3DIC Chiplet Architectures and Advanced Packaging
positive
The transition from monolithic planar dies to multi-die 3DIC chiplets requires electro-thermal and mechanical co-design, doubling Synopsys's die-to-die design wins over the past 12 months.
Autonomous Agentic AI Engineering Workflows
positive
The deployment of autonomous AI agent engineers accelerates chip design cycles and drives higher software compute consumption under subscription and consumption-based models.
Geopolitical Export Controls and Technology Decoupling
negative
Tightening US export restrictions on advanced semiconductor design tools and IP targeting China threaten an $814.32M revenue stream (11.5% of FY2025 revenue).
Định vị
Synopsys is uniquely positioned at the intersection of electronic design automation and structural physics simulation following the Ansys merger. While secular tailwinds in AI compute and heterogeneous chip packaging reinforce its market position, cyclical exposure to customer R&D budgets and export restrictions in China requires disciplined risk monitoring.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
0-1%
Given the Reduce stance and an upside to Fair value of -15.2% with the shares trading at $450.62 relative to $382.30, existing positions should be trimmed. Model portfolio weighting is limited to a minimal stub or fully cleared, prioritizing capital preservation and derisking until market prices converge toward intrinsic value.4
Rủi ro
Manage overall portfolio risk by capping semiconductor software exposure and establishing strict position limits. With Synopsys carrying $10.84B in total debt and trading at 23.26x forward P/E, stop-loss discipline and tactical trimming mitigate the risk of valuation compression during semiconductor capital cycle digestion.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$382.30
Review valuation support
House fair value midpoint. At this level the market premium is eliminated, but fresh capital requires a positive margin of safety.
Disciplined margin of safety entry
Evaluate initiating tranche if fundamentals remain intact
Represents an approximate 10% discount to fair value midpoint ($382.30), establishing the minimum margin of safety required for mature compounders before considering an upgrade from Reduce.
Extended margin of safety entry
Consider re-establishing core position
Corresponds to the lower bound of our fair value range, providing a wide against post-merger integration risks and geopolitical friction.
At $450.62, the stock trades at upside of -15.2% to $382.30. Holding a compounder with $10.84B debt without margin of safety violates value discipline.2,4
Growth Investor
Hold
Secular tailwinds from advanced packaging, agentic AI, and Ansys simulation support double-digit earnings growth. Existing positions may hold for operational momentum, but new capital should wait for better valuation.5
Institutional Risk Manager
Avoid
Unfavorable risk-reward asymmetry, with upside potential limited to $465.97 against downside risks from geopolitical China sanctions ($814.32M exposure) and debt servicing requirements, mandates reducing portfolio weighting.7
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Giảm
We recommend investors Reduce exposure in Synopsys Inc. While the company possesses an impregnable wide economic moat across electronic design automation and multi-physics simulation, the shares at $450.62 offer upside to Fair value of -15.2% relative to $382.30.4
Market pricing embeds aggressive long-term earnings growth, leaving no margin of safety for potential Ansys integration delays, elevated debt servicing on $10.84B in obligations, or geopolitical export shocks to its $814.32M China revenue base.
§15Your notes
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Private notes
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0 chars
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-20 · Published 2026-10-20 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 3 figuresCited in Kịch bản, Cây quyết định lợi nhuận
Financial statementsData as of 2016-10-31 · Published 2026-10-20 · cited for 1 figuresCited in Lịch sử tài chính
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Ansys Multi-Physics Integration Delays and Margin Dilution from Heavy Amortization and Headcount Costs
Integration friction between EDA and multi-physics platforms, coupled with persistent intangible amortization ($1,210.29M in the first nine months of FY2026) and high R&D talent retention costs, prevents margin expansion. FY2025 GAAP operating margin fell to 12.97%. If normalized operating margin fails to reach the modeled 32.5% by FY2030 and stalls below 26.5%, intrinsic fair value is impaired by -18.2%.6
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 24 months
Semiconductor Design Start Cyclical Downturn and Valuation Compression to Tech Peer Multiples
A cyclical pause in customer chip tape-outs and design starts compresses Synopsys's valuation multiple toward enterprise software peers. Synopsys currently trades at an NTM forward P/E of 23.26x, whereas peer NetApp trades at 18.59x. If semiconductor Capex pauses and the terminal multiple derates below 18.0x, it delivers a -20.0% fair value impact.3,4
FV impact
-10.6%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Capital Structure Stress and Elevated Cost of Capital Under Sustained Debt Burden
Elevated post-merger debt burden of $10.84B pushes debt weight to 11.15%. In an environment of persistent high interest rates (pre-tax cost of debt at 7.9%), WACC could rise above 10.82% from the current computed 9.82%, resulting in a -15.4% fair value shock.2
Integration Friction and Overhead Following the $35B Ansys Acquisition
medium
12-36 months
Management is executing joint software product rollouts and targeting $2.98B in Ansys revenue for FY2026, alongside planned restructuring ($236.34M in 9M FY2026) to streamline redundant overhead.5
Top Customer Renewal Concentration
low
24-36 months
One customer accounted for 12.6% of FY2024 revenue. Synopsys deepens engagement through multi-year agreements and proprietary agentic AI engineering workflows.5,7
Sustained double-digit organic EDA revenue growth and die-to-die IP win acceleration5
WACC compression driven by disciplined and swift debt repayment
In the upside scenario, explosive customer adoption of agentic AI engineering workflows and doubling of die-to-die chiplet IP design wins drive accelerated top-line expansion. Joint solutions with Ansys deliver faster-than-expected cross-selling synergies in 3DIC advanced packaging, while rapid deleveraging lowers the cost of capital. Five-year EPS growth averages 21.0%, supporting the upper boundary of our valuation framework.5
Hiện tạiOn track; guidance raised by $20M in Q3 FY2026 to approximately $2.98B.
Vì sao quan trọng
Management raised full-year guidance for Ansys revenue contribution. Delivering below targeted revenue synergies would signal integration friction and delayed cross-selling across the unified customer base.5
Cash generation allows debt paydown ($3,463.73M repaid in 9M FY2026) alongside opportunistic repurchases, including the $1.0B ASR announced in October 2026.
Stock-based compensation reached $893.29M in FY2025 and is projected at $945M-$955M in FY2026 (~9.8% of revenue), above the industry benchmark of 7.8%.
SBC absorbs approximately 35% of free cash flow, dampening economic per-share growth and requiring share buybacks merely to offset share creep (diluted shares projected at 193.0M for FY2026).
Oracle CorporationORCL
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý192,84 US$Report-date price158,78 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư64 / 100
VeriSign, Inc.VRSN
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý233,22 US$Report-date price293,1 US$
