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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
STZ — frequently asked questions
Is Constellation Brands Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-09, STZ looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 123 USD versus our fair value of 181 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 277 USD. That implies roughly 47.8% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-09, gives STZ a fair value of 181 USD and a potential value of 277 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Constellation Brands Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy STZ now?
Our latest published rating for STZ, analyzed 2026-10-09, is Strong Buy. Constellation Brands Inc. looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 123 USD versus fair value of 181 USD; potential value is 277 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for STZ?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-09 documents Constellation Brands Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is STZ's rating?
Our latest published rating for STZ, analyzed 2026-10-09, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 181 USD, the potential value of 277 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (123 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyStrong Buy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$122.64
Giá trị hợp lý
$181.25
Giá trị tiềm năng
$276.58
Tính đến
2026-10-09
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
The largest opportunity is the imminent normalization of capital expenditure as the Veracruz brewery enters commercial service in early FY2028.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Macroeconomic discretionary spending weakness and aggressive competitor discounting forcing promotional couponing and elevated marketing expenses exceeding 11% of sales in Q3.
Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) is assigned a Strong Buy rating with a house fair value of $181.25 per share, representing 47.79% upside from the October 9, 2026 price of $122.64. The primary downside risks stem from balance-sheet leverage ($10,315.7M total debt) and flat net pricing realization. The investment thesis centers on the enduring power of its Mexican beer franchise (accounting for 91% of sales) and a multi-year free cash flow inflection as capital expenditures normalize following the commissioning of the Veracruz brewery in early FY2028.3,5
Constellation Brands represents a high-conviction turnaround in the consumer defensive sector. At $122.64, the stock trades at an attractive 10.02x forward P/E, reflecting market skepticism over distributor inventory rebalancing, flat net pricing realization in Q2, and balance-sheet leverage ($10,315.7M total debt). This valuation overlooks the fundamental earnings power of Constellation's Mexican beer portfolio, which captured three times more market share gains than competitors and generated $3,161.0M in segment operating profit in FY2026.3,5,7
The pivotal operational catalyst is the inflection in capital intensity. Constellation's annual capex moderated from $1,214.1M in FY2025 to $875.0M in FY2026. Executive leadership confirmed that the Veracruz brewery is on track to enter commercial service in early FY2028, marking the completion of major multi-year capacity expansions. As reinvestment rates step down from construction peaks toward steady-state maintenance levels (~18% of NOPAT), annual free cash flow will expand substantially. This cash generation provides ample liquidity to service scheduled debt maturities and execute the remaining $2.5B share repurchase authorization through FY2028.5,6
Our house fair value midpoint of $181.25 synthesizes forward earnings ($135.85 midpoint, 40% weight), free cash flow discounting ($232.19 midpoint, 20% weight), owner earnings ($128.25 midpoint, 20% weight), and discounted earnings ($274.09 midpoint, 20% weight). Our fair value sits 28.4% above the present-value equivalent of the analyst consensus 12-month price target ($141.12 present value vs $151.74 undiscounted target). This divergence is justified by our multi-year explicit modeling of the Veracruz free cash flow inflection, which short-term sell-side targets underappreciate. We assign a 4-6% portfolio sizing, balancing high core brewing conviction against balance-sheet debt and wholesale customer concentration.
Franchise Dominance Across Imported Mexican Beer
Modelo Especial, Corona, and Pacifico form an unmatched brand moat in US brewing, capturing 3x higher market share gains than competitors and sustaining guided second-half operating margins of 34.5%-35.5%.5
With capex stepping down from $1,214.1M in FY2025 to $875.0M in FY2026 and Veracruz entering service in early FY2028, annual free cash flow will expand substantially, supporting debt repayment and share repurchases under the active $2.5B authorization.5,6
Trading at 10.02x forward earnings, STZ trades at an unwarranted 32.34% discount to house fair value ($181.25) and well below staples peer multiples (CLX 13.17x, KMB 13.05x), providing exceptional margin of safety.3
Khuyến nghị của hãng
The investment committee assigns a Strong Buy recommendation for Constellation Brands Inc. with a house fair value of $181.25, supported by exceptional beer unit economics and an approaching free cash flow inflection as Veracruz construction concludes.
Tổng quan công ty
Constellation Brands Inc. is a leading producer, marketer, and distributor of beer, wine, and spirits in the United States. The company's economic engine is its imported Mexican beer franchise, which includes Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, Pacifico, and Victoria. In FY2026, the beer division generated $8,315.2M in net sales, accounting for 91% of consolidated net sales, and $3,161.0M in segment operating income. Its premium wine and spirits division accounts for the remaining 9% of net sales ($823.8M in FY2026).
Constellation distributes its products through independent wholesale distributors. Distribution is highly consolidated: the Reyes Beer Division represents 27.5% of total company net sales, and the top ten wholesale customers collectively account for approximately 60% of consolidated net sales. The company operates major brewing and packaging facilities in Nava and Obregon, Mexico, with a new state-of-the-art brewery under construction in Veracruz scheduled for commercial startup in early FY2028.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
Our stress testing evaluates the resilience of Constellation Brands under a compound deterioration scenario combining severe promotional discounting, distributor inventory destocking, and rising debt capital costs. Under this stress test, beer segment operating margins compress to 32.0% as marketing spend is sustained above 10% to defend shelf space amidst flat net realized pricing. Concurrently, wholesale distributor destocking across primary partners like Reyes Beer Division (27.5% share) holds consolidated revenue growth stagnant. Furthermore, refinancing challenges on Constellation's $10,315.7M debt load lift WACC from 6.52% to 7.50%. In this compounded downside framework, annual free cash flow is restricted to debt service, forcing management to pause its $2.5B share repurchase authorization. This pushes the valuation toward the conservative valuation floor of $121.28, establishing that the October 9, 2026 price of $122.64 already prices in near-complete operational impairment.
Beer segment operating margin contracts below 32.0% due to promotional couponing
Distributor destocking results in stagnant consolidated revenue growth
Veracruz commissioning incurs higher initial operational costs and sustained capex5
WACC expands toward 7.50% due to debt refinancing pressure2
In the downside stress case, consumer spending softness and promotional competition constrain pricing power, keeping net pricing flat and necessitating sustained marketing spend above 10%. Distributor inventory destocking across top wholesalers leads to multi-quarter shipment headwinds. Furthermore, start-up depreciation and operational friction at Veracruz in early FY2028 delay free cash flow expansion, while high debt service ($10,315.7M total debt) restricts share repurchase activity.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Severe beer operating margin compression from sustained promotional discounting and elevated marketing
Management guided second-half beer operating margins of 34.5%-35.5%. However, Q2 pricing net of mix was roughly flat with a 25 bps headwind from portfolio repositioning, while Q3 marketing expense is guided above 11% and full-year second half marketing around 10%. If competitive pressure forces continued discounting, beer operating margin dropping below 32% impairs consolidated operating profit given beer represents 91% of revenue.5,7
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Promotional discounting, commercial couponing, and marketing expense exceeding 11% in Q3 compress core brewing margins, directly impairing consolidated EBIT given beer generates 91% of sales.
Hiện tại:Guided at 34.5%-35.5% for 2H FY2027
Cảnh báo nếu< 32.0%
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
Constellation Brands commands a solid Narrow economic moat derived from high-barrier intangible brand assets and low-cost scale advantages in Mexican brewing. Through its perpetual, exclusive US commercial rights to Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, Pacifico, and Victoria, Constellation has built the leading import beer franchise in North America. In FY2026, the beer division generated $8,315.2M in net sales, representing 91% of consolidated net sales, and delivered $3,161.0M in segment operating income. Brand strength is demonstrated by market share capture; management confirmed that Constellation captured three times more market share gains in beer than the next best competitor.
The company's structural cost advantage stems from concentrated brewing and bottling infrastructure in Mexico. Operating mega-breweries in Nava and Obregon allows Constellation to exploit significant scale economies in raw material procurement, high-speed automated packaging, and cross-border rail logistics. This production efficiency enables Constellation to generate peer-leading beer operating margins, guided at 34.5% to 35.5% for the second half of FY2027. These brewing economics far exceed the broader packaged goods peer group, where median operating margins sit near 19.0% (KMB at 19.00%, CLX at 12.89%). Furthermore, programmatic continuous improvement initiatives have captured approximately $600M in cumulative cost efficiencies since Investor Day.
The third pillar supporting the moat is Constellation's entrenched route-to-market distribution system. Constellation distributes its beer portfolio via exclusive wholesale franchise agreements, led by the Reyes Beer Division, which accounted for 27.5% of total company net sales in FY2026. The ten largest distributor customers represented approximately 60% of total net sales across each of the past three fiscal years. This extensive wholesale alignment secures dominant shelf-space allocation in high-velocity cold boxes and retail displays, creating significant distribution friction for sub-scale competitors attempting to enter the imported Mexican beer segment.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Constellation generates an 11.42% return on invested capital, exceeding its computed WACC of 6.52% by 490 basis points and outpacing its moderate cost of equity of 7.52%. This consistent economic profit is generated almost entirely by the beer division, which earned $3,161.0M in operating income on $8,315.2M in net sales in FY2026.2,7
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Intangible Assets (Exclusive Brand Licensing & Consumer Brand Equity) — Perpetual exclusive US rights to Grupo Modelo brands generate $8,315.2M in annual beer revenue (91% of consolidated net sales) and $3,161.0M in segment operating profit, outperforming competitors with 3x higher beer market share gains.Wide
02Cost Advantage & Scale in Mexican Brewing Operations — Large-scale brewing facilities in Nava and Obregon, complemented by the upcoming Veracruz facility entering service in early FY2028, deliver superior production and packaging scale that supports guided second-half beer operating margins of 34.5%-35.5%.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($181.25). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.6B after modeled reinvestment of $518.4M, with terminal value at 85.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The modal expected path reflects steady execution of the capital and operating turnaround. Revenue growth normalizes from -0.57% in FY2027 toward 3.5%-3.8% over the forecast horizon, led by core Mexican beer volume gains. Second-half FY2027 beer operating margins hold within the guided 34.5%-35.5% band, supporting consolidated operating margins around 29.8% to 30.4%. Veracruz comes online in early FY2028, initiating depreciation but moderating annual capex from $875.0M toward steady-state levels, generating over $1.6B in free cash flow and funding steady share repurchases.1,5,6
An earnings beat confirms that marketing spend (guided at 10%) successfully stimulated volume without degrading net pricing realization, reaffirming core earnings power.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Strong Buy; Maintain allocation steady and monitor quarterly distributor depletions relative to shipments.
Kích hoạt: Comparable EPS within $11.20-$11.90 and second-half beer operating margin within 34.5%-35.5%5
Inline results demonstrate faithful execution against management guidance while keeping the Veracruz capex step-down thesis intact for FY2028.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Pause incremental accumulation, reduce position sizing toward the lower allocation threshold, and verify whether promotional couponing has compromised brand equity.
A margin decline below 32% indicates that promotional couponing and marketing overhead have failed to defend volumes, eroding the structural pricing power of the core Mexican beer franchise.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Earnings quality is high and underpinned by cash-generative brewing operations. In FY2026, beer operating income of $3,161.0M drove consolidated EBIT of $2,721.4M and net income of $1,686.7M. Annual stock-based compensation of $67.7M represents a modest 0.74% of revenue, closely aligning with the industry benchmark of 0.6%. Non-operating adjustments in recent quarters have primarily reflected non-cash wine brand impairments and routine transactional items rather than aggressive operational capitalization.6,7
Xu hướng dự báo
Post-earnings consensus estimate revisions have drifted marginally lower, with FY2027 consensus EPS trimmed by -0.13% and FY2028 EPS down by -0.17%. These adjustments incorporate distributor inventory rebalancing and flat net pricing in Q2, but consensus remains well within management's reiterated full-year comparable EPS guidance of $11.20-$11.90.5
Constellation's cash generation is poised for a multi-year inflection. Historically, the company demonstrated solid cash conversion, generating $1,696.0M in operating cash flow and $788.6M in free cash flow in FY2017. During the heavy transformation phase of FY2024-FY2026, free cash flow was constrained by capital expenditures exceeding $1.2B annually. As Veracruz enters service in early FY2028, capital intensity drops toward maintenance levels (~18% of NOPAT), driving free cash flow expansion above $1.6B annually and providing strong support for equity intrinsic value.3,5,6,8
Phân bổ vốn
Constellation's capital allocation strategy is entering a new phase defined by moderation, debt deleveraging, and shareholder capital return. Having funded the multi-year Veracruz brewery buildout, declined from $1,214.1M in FY2025 to $875.0M in FY2026, and is slated to step down to steady-state maintenance levels following commercial commissioning in early FY2028. The company carries total debt of $10,315.7M against cash of $102.4M with a pre-tax of 5.87%. With strong exceeding $2.6B, management has the capability to address upcoming debt maturities while actively repurchasing shares under the remaining $2.5B authorization through FY2028.
Constellation's ROIC of 11.42% is on an improving trajectory as capital expenditures normalize. As the $875.0M capex invested in FY2026 converts into operational brewing capacity at Veracruz in early FY2028, asset turnover and NOPAT will expand simultaneously, widening economic profits.
Constellation's 11.42% ROIC maintains a favorable spread of 490 basis points over its computed WACC of 6.52% and exceeds its moderate cost of equity of 7.52%, confirming positive economic value addition.
Beer Franchise Profitability Far Outweighs Wine & Spirits Drag
Beer operating income reached $3,161.0M on $8,315.2M (91% of sales) in FY2026, whereas Wine & Spirits generated just $10.5M operating profit on $823.8M revenue.
Doanh thu mới nhất9,1 T US$CAGR doanh thu +2,5%
Biên hoạt động29,8%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất1,8 T US$FY2026
Nợ ròng10,2 T US$FY2026
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu9,1 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−4,4 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp4,7 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−2 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động2,7 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−1 T US$Lợi nhuận ròng1,7 T US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
9.139.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
4.427.500.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
4.711.500.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
1.990.100.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
2.721.400.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-1.034.700.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.686.700.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản21,9 T US$Tiền mặt102,4 Tr US$Tài sản ngắn hạn2,9 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả13,5 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn2,7 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu8,4 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
21.900.500.000 US$
Tiền mặt
102.400.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
2.906.300.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
13.513.600.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
2.689.800.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
8.386.900.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng1,7 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+420 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+67,7 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác+494,6 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động2,7 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ68,1 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+2,7 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư+16,5 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−2,7 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá+4,8 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ102,4 Tr US$
2,7 T US$ − 875 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 1,8 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.686.700.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
2.669.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
420.000.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
67.700.000 US$
Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác
494.600.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
2.669.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
2.758.400.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
68.100.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ đầu tư
16.500.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
4.800.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
2.656.000.000 US$
Mua lại cổ phiếu
924.100.000 US$
Cổ tức đã trả
715.700.000 US$
Hoàn trả nợ ròng
941.500.000 US$
Hoạt động tài chính khác
74.700.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
102.400.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
16.500.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-2.656.000.000 US$
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-09.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2017-02-28
7,3 T US$
2,7 T US$
1,5 T US$
1,7 T US$
788,6 Tr US$
907,4 Tr US$
247,9 Tr US$
56,1 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
315,1 Tr US$
—
-1,5 T US$
-134,8 Tr US$
—
177,4 Tr US$
177,7 Tr US$
8,6 T US$
32,6%
—
4,2%
—
2018-02-28
7,6 T US$
3,1 T US$
2,3 T US$
1,9 T US$
873,8 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
299,7 Tr US$
60,9 Tr US$
1 T US$
400,1 Tr US$
—
-1,4 T US$
-601,2 Tr US$
177,4 Tr US$
90,3 Tr US$
90,3 Tr US$
9,4 T US$
30,1%
—
4,4%
—
2019-02-28
8,1 T US$
5 T US$
3,4 T US$
2,2 T US$
1,4 T US$
886,3 Tr US$
339,1 Tr US$
64,1 Tr US$
504,3 Tr US$
557,7 Tr US$
—
-4,8 T US$
2,6 T US$
90,3 Tr US$
93,6 Tr US$
93,6 Tr US$
12,8 T US$
29,7%
—
4,5%
—
2020-02-29
8,3 T US$
-173,3 Tr US$
-11,8 Tr US$
2,6 T US$
1,8 T US$
726,5 Tr US$
332,2 Tr US$
60,4 Tr US$
50 Tr US$
569,2 Tr US$
—
-531 Tr US$
-2 T US$
93,6 Tr US$
81,4 Tr US$
3,2 T US$
11,9 T US$
25,8%
—
3,3%
—
2021-02-28
8,6 T US$
3,2 T US$
2 T US$
2,8 T US$
1,9 T US$
864,6 Tr US$
299,1 Tr US$
63 Tr US$
0 US$
575 Tr US$
—
-87,9 Tr US$
-2,3 T US$
81,4 Tr US$
460,6 Tr US$
460,6 Tr US$
10,4 T US$
32,4%
—
4,7%
—
2022-02-28
8,8 T US$
1 T US$
-40,4 Tr US$
2,7 T US$
1,7 T US$
1 T US$
342,4 Tr US$
44,9 Tr US$
1,4 T US$
573 Tr US$
—
-1 T US$
-1,9 T US$
460,6 Tr US$
199,4 Tr US$
199,4 Tr US$
10,1 T US$
26,4%
—
5,0%
—
2023-02-28
9,5 T US$
1,2 T US$
-71 Tr US$
2,8 T US$
1,7 T US$
1 T US$
387 Tr US$
68,5 Tr US$
1,7 T US$
587,7 Tr US$
2 T US$
-999,4 Tr US$
-1,8 T US$
199,4 Tr US$
133,5 Tr US$
40,3 Tr US$
11,3 T US$
30,1%
—
6,5%
—
2024-02-29
10 T US$
3,1 T US$
1,7 T US$
2,8 T US$
1,5 T US$
1,3 T US$
429,2 Tr US$
63,6 Tr US$
249,7 Tr US$
653,8 Tr US$
-589,2 Tr US$
-1,3 T US$
-1,5 T US$
133,5 Tr US$
152,4 Tr US$
152,4 Tr US$
11,6 T US$
31,8%
—
7,3%
—
2025-02-28
10,2 T US$
781,3 Tr US$
-81,4 Tr US$
3,2 T US$
1,9 T US$
1,2 T US$
447 Tr US$
72,2 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
731,8 Tr US$
-391,7 Tr US$
-974,8 Tr US$
-2,3 T US$
152,4 Tr US$
68,1 Tr US$
68,1 Tr US$
10,7 T US$
3,5%
—
8,6%
—
2026-02-28
9,1 T US$
3,2 T US$
1,7 T US$
2,7 T US$
1,8 T US$
875 Tr US$
420 Tr US$
67,7 Tr US$
924,1 Tr US$
715,7 Tr US$
-941,5 Tr US$
16,5 Tr US$
-2,7 T US$
68,1 Tr US$
102,4 Tr US$
102,4 Tr US$
10,3 T US$
29,8%
—
5,6%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Constellation Brands Inc.STZ
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý181,25 US$Report-date price122,64 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư68 / 100
Kimberly-Clark CorporationKMB
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý121,76 US$Report-date price94,36 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư58 / 100
The J.M. Smucker CompanySJM
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý81,01 US$Report-date price120,02 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư43 / 100
Constellation Brands Inc.STZ
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý181,25 US$Report-date price122,64 US$
Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) trades at 10.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 13.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 9.2x compares with a peer median of 10.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Kimberly-Clark Corporation, The J.M. Smucker Company, Target Corporation and The Clorox Company, as of 2026-10-08.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Peak
Constellation's capital expenditure peaked at $1,214.1M in FY2025 and moderated to $875.0M in FY2026. Executive management reaffirmed that the Veracruz facility will enter service at the beginning of fiscal 2028, confirming the culmination of the mega-brewery expansion program. Industry capex-to-depreciation stands elevated at 2.17x, reflecting heavy category-wide packaging and brewing investments that are now cresting.5,6
Chu kỳ tăng giá
During an industry upcycle, strong on-premise dining and entertainment traffic combined with robust consumer discretionary spending accelerate imported beer consumption. Breweries benefit from full capacity utilization, favorable packaging mix, and compound annual price realization of 1%-2% that expands operating margins above 35%.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
In an industry downturn, consumer real wage pressures lead to trade-down from premium imported beer into domestic sub-premium offerings, while distributors aggressively destock inventories to preserve working capital. Under this phase, breweries suffer unabsorbed fixed overhead and margin compression as promotional couponing intensifies to defend tap handles and retail shelf allocations.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Demographic Expansion and Cross-Cultural Adoption of Mexican Beer
positive
The rapid demographic expansion of Hispanic consumers and growing cross-cultural adoption among non-Hispanic cohorts provide structural volume tailwinds for Modelo Especial and Pacifico.
Premiumization and Flavor Exploration
positive
Consumer preferences in alcohol continue to shift from traditional domestic lagers toward authentic, premium imports and flavorful alcoholic beverages.
Định vị
Constellation occupies the premier position within the US brewing industry, focused squarely on high-end imported Mexican lagers. While domestic brewing conglomerates struggle with category volume attrition, Constellation has consistently outperformed, generating three times the market share gains of its nearest competitor. Its route-to-market integration with leading wholesalers secures priority placement across retail cold boxes and on-premise accounts.5,7
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
4-6%
A high conviction 4-6% position is justified by the 47.79% upside to house fair value ($181.25) and the exceptional cash generation of the core Mexican beer franchise ($3,161.0M operating income). Position size is capped at 6% to account for balance-sheet debt ($10,315.7M total debt) and wholesale distributor concentration.3,7
Rủi ro
Risk management is governed by strict allocation bounds (max 6% fund exposure), monitoring quarterly distributor shipment-to-depletion spreads, and tracking refinancing spreads on the company's debt obligations.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$120.00 - $123.00 (Initial Entry Zone)
Initiate 60% of target allocation
Captures deep value at 10.02x forward P/E and a 32.34% discount to house fair value ($181.25).
$110.00 - $115.00 (Pullback Zone)
Deploy remaining 40% of target allocation
Takes advantage of temporary post-earnings volatility or distributor shipment timing noise to establish an attractive average cost basis.
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
$165.00
Trim 30% of position to capture initial gains as forward multiple re-rates toward peer medians
$181.25
Trim an additional 40% of position as the stock achieves house fair value
$210.00+
Hold remaining 30% runner to capture full Veracruz operational scale and long-term share repurchase compounding
Trim position by 25% and reduce projected margin assumptions; investigate whether promotional couponing has impaired pricing power.5
§12 Quan điểm nhà đầu tưEN
Institutional / Value Perspective
Buy
Compelling free cash flow inflection underpinned by a 32.34% discount to house fair value ($181.25), superior beer unit economics, and capex step-down post-FY2028.5
Tactical / Earnings-Cycle Perspective
Buy
Attractive entry multiple at 10.02x forward P/E offering multiple expansion toward peer medians of 13.0x as distributor inventories stabilize.3,4,5
Income / Risk-Averse Perspective
Hold
While long-term intrinsic value upside is substantial, income investors should note total debt of $10,315.7M and await initial balance-sheet deleveraging following Veracruz commissioning.3
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Mua mạnh
Constellation Brands offers a compelling turnaround opportunity in the consumer defensive sector, trading at an attractive 10.02x forward P/E compared to peers above 13.0x. The core Mexican beer franchise remains dominant, generating $3,161.0M in FY2026 operating income with 3x higher market share gains than competitors.3,4,5,7
With the Veracruz brewery scheduled to begin commercial operations in early FY2028, peak capital expenditure has passed, paving the way for a powerful free cash flow inflection and aggressive execution of the remaining $2.5B share repurchase authorization.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData covering 2026-10-09 to 2028-02-29 · cited for 2 figuresCited in Kịch bản tiêu cực, Kịch bản
Financial statementsData as of 2017-02-28 · Published 2026-10-09 · cited for 1 figuresCited in Lịch sử tài chính
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Cost of capital repricing driven by elevated balance-sheet leverage and macroeconomic refinancing pressure
Constellation carries total debt of $10,315.7M against cash of $102.4M and pre-tax cost of debt of 5.87%. If WACC expands from 6.52% past 7.50% due to credit spread widening and refinancing pressure, enterprise valuation models contract steeply.2,3,6
FV impact
-13.8%
Cost of capital 1 point higher
Trigger
Within 18 months
Distributor inventory destocking and shelf space contraction inducing multi-year revenue stagnation
FY2027 consensus estimates anticipate negative revenue growth of -0.57%, and post-earnings revisions show repeated downward estimate adjustments. With Reyes Beer Division representing 27.5% of net sales and the top 10 customers representing 60%, prolonged distributor destocking following inventory rebuilds would stall multi-year revenue growth.1,5,7
FV impact
-8.5%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Construction delays or equipment installation overruns at Veracruz in Mexico past early FY2028 would prevent capex normalization, depressing free cash flow conversion.
Hiện tại:$875.0M in FY2026
Cảnh báo nếu> $1,100M in FY2028
03
Shipment vs depletion growth spread
Distributor inventory unwinds cause shipments to lag end-consumer demand, producing revenue contraction and brewery under-absorption across wholesalers representing 60% of volume.
Hiện tại:Shipments rebuilding inventory in 1H FY2027
Cảnh báo nếuShipments trailing retail depletions by > 300 bps across consecutive quarters
04
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Widening corporate credit spreads and elevated refinancing rates across $10,315.7M total debt lift capital costs, compressing DCF valuations.
Disruption or contract renegotiations with the primary wholesale partner threatens national distribution reach and volume velocity across key metropolitan territories.
Hiện tại:27.5% of net sales in FY2026
Cảnh báo nếu< 24.0%
Wide
03Route-to-Market Distribution Integration & Cold-Box Control — Deep operational integration with major wholesale distributors, led by Reyes Beer Division accounting for 27.5% of net sales and the top 10 wholesalers representing 60%, ensures premier placement in retail cold boxes and on-premise tap handles.Moderate
Maintaining long-term exclusive wholesale contracts and coordinating commercial promotion calendars to align shipments with consumer depletions.5
Cross-border trade policy changes or import tariffs between Mexico and the United States impacting imported beer cost structures
low
12-24 months
Completing the localized Veracruz brewery in early FY2028 to optimize logistics and maintain operational compliance under North American trade frameworks.5
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (42,72 US$) plus discounted terminal value (250 US$) minus signed per current share (60,25 US$) equals the 232 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Consolidated operating margins expand past 31.5% supported by continuous improvement programs5
Active $2.5B share repurchase authorization completed ahead of schedule by FY20285
In the upside scenario, accelerated demographic penetration of Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, and Pacifico into non-Hispanic consumer segments drives medium-term organic beer revenue growth above 5.0%. The Veracruz brewery is commissioned seamlessly in early FY2028, lowering capex to maintenance levels of 18% of NOPAT and unlocking substantial free cash flow. Management utilizes expanded cash flow to complete the $2.5B share repurchase authorization ahead of schedule, while continuous improvement programs expand consolidated operating margins past 31.5%.5
Hiện tại
Scheduled to enter commercial service at the beginning of fiscal 2028
Vì sao quan trọng
Marks the conclusion of peak capital outlays and triggers the step-down in annual capex toward steady-state levels.6
03
Chỉ số:
Distributor Shipments vs Retail Depletions Spread
Hiện tạiShipments normalized in 1H FY2027 to rebuild distributor safety stocks
Vì sao quan trọng
Provides early warning of wholesale inventory unwinds across top customers representing 60% of sales.5,7
04
Chỉ số:
Execution Pace of Share Repurchase Program
Hiện tại$2.5B authorization remains active through FY2028
Vì sao quan trọng
Drives per-share earnings accretion as free cash flow expands following brewery completion.5
05
Chỉ số:
Balance-Sheet Deleveraging and Debt Refinancing Rate
Hiện tạiTotal debt of $10,315.7M against cash of $102.4M
Vì sao quan trọng
Reduces interest rate sensitivity and protects WACC (6.52%) from macroeconomic credit spread widening.2
Constellation is structurally a high-margin Mexican brewing business. Operating beer margins guided at 34.5%-35.5% far exceed packaged goods peer operating margins (CLX at 12.89%, KMB at 19.00%).
Veracruz Brewery Transitioning from Cash Drain to Cash Engine
Capex declined from $1,214.1M in FY2025 to $875.0M in FY2026, with commercial in-service slated for early FY2028.
The conclusion of peak capital spending marks an inflection point where cash conversion accelerates, allowing management to simultaneously reduce leverage and execute buybacks.
Share Repurchase Authorization Drives Net Per-Share Accretion
Management has $2.5B authorized for repurchases through FY2028, while annual stock-based compensation is low at $67.7M.
Share buybacks provide net share count reduction of 0.5% to 1.5% annually, amplifying EPS growth independently of top-line volume.
Target CorporationTGT
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý129,82 US$Report-date price157,45 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư59 / 100
The Clorox CompanyCLX
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý104,8 US$Report-date price83,1 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư53 / 100
Biên
STZ
Constellation Brands Inc.
$20.8B
10.0x
2.3x
9.2x
24.0%
—
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
$32.3B
13.0x
1.9x
10.9x
104.9%
19.0%
SJM
The J.M. Smucker Company
$12.4B
10.6x
1.4x
8.5x
3.9%
17.9%
TGT
Target Corporation
$68.6B
15.8x
0.6x
9.6x
26.4%
6.0%
CLX
The Clorox Company
$9.9B
13.2x
1.5x
13.8x
163.8%
12.9%
Wholesale Distributor Consolidation
neutral
Wholesale distributor consolidation concentrates route-to-market power among mega-distributors like Reyes Beer Division (27.5% share), creating superior logistics efficiency but elevating customer concentration risk.
