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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
SYF — frequently asked questions
Is Synchrony Financial overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-07, SYF looks meaningfully undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 72,2 USD versus our fair value of 96,5 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 136 USD. That implies roughly 33.7% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07, gives SYF a fair value of 96,5 USD and a potential value of 136 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Synchrony Financial's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy SYF now?
Our latest published rating for SYF, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Strong Buy. Synchrony Financial looks meaningfully undervalued at the analysis-date price of 72,2 USD versus fair value of 96,5 USD; potential value is 136 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for SYF?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-07 documents Synchrony Financial's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is SYF's rating?
Our latest published rating for SYF, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Strong Buy, with a published moat assessment of 6.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 96,5 USD, the potential value of 136 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (72,2 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyStrong Buy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$72.16
Giá trị hợp lý
$96.50
Giá trị tiềm năng
$136.44
Tính đến
2026-10-06
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Rapid consumer credit stabilization and peak delinquency allowing reserve releases and operating margin expansion, alongside accelerated share repurchases that drive diluted EPS toward the consensus high of $11.37 by FY2027 and propel valuation toward Potential value of $136.44.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Operating margin falling below 18.0% over trailing twelve months during an acute consumer credit downturn.
Synchrony Financial is rated Strong Buy, offering 33.73% upside to our Fair value of $96.50 against the report-date share price of $72.16 on October 6, 2026, with Potential value of $136.44 supported by defensive promotional financing agreements and aggressive share retirements.4
We rate Synchrony Financial Strong Buy. For an ordinary investor, this rating signifies high conviction that the stock represents an undervalued equity opportunity with favorable risk-adjusted return potential, justified by durable earnings generation and sustained capital return through credit cycles.6
At the report date of October 6, 2026, Synchrony Financial traded at $72.16 per share. Against this price, our fundamental valuation establishes a midpoint of $96.50, representing an implied upside of 33.73%, with a reaching $136.44 under optimal credit reserve releases and accelerated reduction.
The principal risk to this investment thesis is an acute consumer credit downturn where persistent inflation or rising unemployment escalates cardholder defaults beyond the loss-sharing capacity of retailer agreements. If operating margins were to breach the danger threshold of 18.0% over trailing twelve months, required provision expenses would depress net income, forcing management to halt discretionary share repurchases to protect regulatory capital ratios.2,4,6
The core catalyst driving per-share value creation is Synchrony's substantial cash flow generation unencumbered by physical capital expenditures. Operating cash flow of $9.85B in FY2025 allows management to fund dividends while systematically retiring equity shares, reducing shares outstanding from 373.9M average in FY2025 to 325.37M in October 2026. This continuous share count reduction powers diluted EPS toward consensus FY2027 estimates of $10.44 even amidst moderate balance-sheet growth, driving per-share intrinsic value toward Fair value.1,4,6
Structural EPS Accretion from Aggressive Capital Return
Synchrony generated $9.85B in operating cash flow in FY2025 without capital expenditure requirements. Management systematically deploys surplus capital into buybacks, shrinking shares outstanding from 373.9M average in FY2025 to 325.37M in October 2026. This consistent share count reduction powers consensus FY2027 EPS growth toward $10.44 even during periods of modest asset growth.1,4,6
Unlike standard commercial card lenders, Synchrony's multi-year partner agreements pass credit loss charge-offs back to retail merchants, preserving FY2025 operating margins at 24.17% and net margins at 18.58%. Dynamic card APR pricing offsets higher deposit funding expenses, maintaining high underwriting returns on equity across changing interest rate regimes.2,4,6
Deep technical integration into retailer checkout systems and established health and wellness networks like CareCredit create significant switching barriers for merchant partners. These exclusive point-of-sale financing programs protect loan receivables against displacement from general-purpose credit card issuers like Capital One and regional commercial banks.3
Khuyến nghị của hãng
Synchrony Financial is rated Strong Buy because its embedded merchant promotional financing agreements defend ~24.17% operating margins and generate $9.85B in operating cash flow to fund continuous share retirements, driving double-digit EPS accretion at an attractive valuation discount.4,6
Tổng quan công ty
Synchrony Financial operates as a consumer financial services enterprise providing promotional credit and specialized financing programs across retail, healthcare, and wellness markets. The company issues the CareCredit-branded private-label credit card accepted across a nationwide network of healthcare and wellness providers, as well as the CareCredit Dual Card, which cardholders can utilize both within the provider network and across general credit card networks. In addition, Synchrony provides co-branded private-label and Dual Cards in partnership with major retailers such as Walgreens, while offering installment loan products at select provider locations.
To protect partner integrations and customer account data, Synchrony maintains a structured information security framework incorporating administrative, technical, and physical safeguards. These controls are designed to ensure the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of company, partner, and cardholder records, defending systems against operational disruptions, unauthorized access, and emerging information security threats.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
During past credit stress cycles, operating margin compressed to 14.01% in 2020 and 16.75% in 2023. In an environment with a 5.31% risk-free rate and $16.43B in total debt, elevated debt service on cardholders would increase provision expenses, pushing net income well below $3.55B and halting buybacks.
Cardholder unemployment and inflation drive elevated credit delinquency.4
Credit loss provisions outstrip retailer sharing protections.6
Share repurchases are paused to satisfy balance-sheet capital requirements.6
A severe consumer credit downturn increases net charge-offs beyond partner risk-sharing buffers, depressing operating profitability and forcing management to halt discretionary share repurchases to safeguard capital ratios.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Severe Consumer Credit Deterioration and Net Charge-Off Spike
Operating margin falling below 18% over a 12-month window as credit provisions surge past retailer risk-sharing absorption limits during severe consumer credit stress.4
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 6 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 12 months
Retail Partner Non-Renewal and Co-Brand Disintermediation
Annual revenue contracting by more than 3% YoY over 18 months if an anchor merchant defects to competing credit issuers such as Capital One.
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Synchrony Financial possesses a narrow economic moat grounded in high switching costs and customer acquisition cost advantages across specialized point-of-sale retail financing. Proprietary point-of-sale integrations and long-term risk-sharing partnerships with major retailers create operational barriers that protect loan receivables from commoditized commercial bank offerings.
Contractual risk-sharing absorbs a substantial share of consumer credit charge-offs, enabling Synchrony to generate resilient operating earnings through credit cycles. Capital return flexibility remains supported by negligible physical capital expenditures and strong underlying portfolio cash generation.
01Switching Costs — Deep software integration into merchant checkout workflows and multi-year sharing agreements make partner defection costly.Moderate
02Cost Advantage — Scale-driven customer acquisition through established retail partner stores provides structural distribution cost efficiencies over general-purpose card lenders.Moderate
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Retail Partner Defection to Competitors
medium
18-24 months
Portfolio diversification into healthcare financing and specialty retail niches alongside long-term co-brand contracts.4
Interest Margin Compression from Elevated Funding Costs
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($96.50). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
The base case projects loan balances to track steady consumer spending while contractual loss sharing keeps operating profitability stable through FY2027. Confirmation requires steady delinquency rates across quarterly reports, whereas an acceleration in cardholder defaults would disconfirm this path.1,4
Kích hoạt: Diluted earnings match consensus estimates with stable net interest margin and steady credit provisions.
Meeting expectations keeps the business on course toward Fair value $96.50 with upside of 33.7% from share price $72.16.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Re-examine retailer loss-sharing buffers and pause additional capital commitments until credit metrics stabilize.
Kích hoạt: Delinquency spikes drive provision expenses higher, causing earnings to fall short of consensus expectations.
A significant earnings miss from credit deterioration would compress underwriting margins and pause capital distributions.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Operating cash conversion remains robust as loan collections and portfolio turns cover reported net earnings, while contractual loss-sharing agreements shield bottom-line margins from sudden spikes in cardholder delinquencies.6
Xu hướng dự báo
Consensus earnings projections remained steady following the recent financial release, reflecting stable credit loss provisions and predictable net interest spreads across retail finance portfolios.
Chỉ số cần theo dõi trước khi công bố
01
Chỉ số:
Net Charge-Off Trajectory
Hiện tạiReflects seasonal retail credit stabilization across core consumer financing programs.
Vì sao quan trọng
Credit losses determine required provision expenses and test retailer loss-sharing absorption buffers.4
02
Chỉ số:
Net Interest Margin Durability
Hiện tạiSupported by floating-rate card APR pricing and retail partner sharing terms.
Vì sao quan trọng
The spread between loan yields and deposit expenses dictates net operating income.
FY2025 operating cash flow was $9.85B with $0 in physical capex, yielding $9.85B in free cash flow. These flows reflect consumer loan repayment cycles rather than unencumbered non-financial cash flow.4,5,6
Phân bổ vốn
Substantial operating cash flow supported $2.94B in share repurchases and $427M in dividends in FY2025, shrinking shares outstanding from 373.9M average in FY2025 to 325.37M in October 2026.
Passing credit losses back to merchants buffers net earnings against cyclical credit shocks.
Doanh thu mới nhất19,1 T US$CAGR doanh thu +5,1%
Biên hoạt động24,2%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất9,9 T US$FY2025
Tiền mặt ròng2,1 T US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.30 thg 6, 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu4,7 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−2,2 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp2,5 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−1,3 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động1,2 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−301 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng885 Tr US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
4.693.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
2.176.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
2.517.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
1.331.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
1.186.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-301.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
885.000.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản119,1 T US$Tiền mặt15 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn17,3 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả102,3 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn81,1 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu16,8 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
119.095.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt
14.973.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
17.321.000.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
102.329.000.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
81.144.000.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
16.766.000.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng3,6 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+514 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác+5,8 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động9,9 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ14,8 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+9,9 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−4,9 T US$Dòng tiền tài chính−4,7 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá−44 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ15 T US$
9,9 T US$ − 0 US$Dòng tiền tự do 9,9 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
3.552.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
9.851.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
514.000.000 US$
Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác
5.785.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
9.851.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
24.606.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
14.755.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
4.854.000.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
4.854.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
4.735.000.000 US$
Mua lại cổ phiếu
2.941.000.000 US$
Cổ tức đã trả
427.000.000 US$
Hoàn trả nợ ròng
295.000.000 US$
Hoạt động tài chính khác
1.072.000.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
44.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
14.973.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-4.854.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-4.735.000.000 US$
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-07.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
12,2 T US$
3,8 T US$
2,3 T US$
6,5 T US$
6,5 T US$
0 US$
219 Tr US$
4 T US$
476 Tr US$
214 Tr US$
—
-13,4 T US$
3,8 T US$
—
9,7 T US$
14,4 T US$
20,1 T US$
29,2%
—
4,8%
—
2017-12-31
13,8 T US$
3,6 T US$
1,9 T US$
8,6 T US$
8,6 T US$
0 US$
254 Tr US$
5,3 T US$
1,5 T US$
446 Tr US$
—
-9,5 T US$
3,1 T US$
9,7 T US$
11,8 T US$
16,1 T US$
20,8 T US$
24,2%
—
4,7%
—
2018-12-31
15,2 T US$
3,9 T US$
2,8 T US$
9,3 T US$
9,3 T US$
0 US$
302 Tr US$
5,5 T US$
1,9 T US$
534 Tr US$
—
-19 T US$
8,3 T US$
11,8 T US$
10,4 T US$
15,5 T US$
24 T US$
24,0%
—
5,6%
—
2019-12-31
15,6 T US$
5,3 T US$
3,7 T US$
9 T US$
9 T US$
0 US$
367 Tr US$
4,2 T US$
3,6 T US$
581 Tr US$
—
-261 Tr US$
-6,5 T US$
10,4 T US$
12,6 T US$
18,1 T US$
19,9 T US$
31,3%
—
4,8%
—
2020-12-31
12,8 T US$
2,2 T US$
1,4 T US$
7,5 T US$
7,5 T US$
0 US$
383 Tr US$
5,3 T US$
985 Tr US$
520 Tr US$
—
-498 Tr US$
-8 T US$
12,6 T US$
11,6 T US$
19 T US$
15,8 T US$
14,0%
—
8,0%
—
2021-12-31
11,2 T US$
5,9 T US$
4,2 T US$
7,1 T US$
7,1 T US$
0 US$
390 Tr US$
726 Tr US$
2,9 T US$
500 Tr US$
—
-4,8 T US$
-5,2 T US$
11,6 T US$
8,7 T US$
13,6 T US$
14,5 T US$
49,0%
—
5,8%
—
2022-12-31
13,2 T US$
4,4 T US$
3 T US$
6,7 T US$
6,7 T US$
0 US$
419 Tr US$
—
3,3 T US$
434 Tr US$
-329 Tr US$
-10,2 T US$
5,3 T US$
8,7 T US$
10,4 T US$
15,2 T US$
14,2 T US$
30,0%
—
7,1%
—
2023-12-31
17,3 T US$
3,4 T US$
2,2 T US$
8,6 T US$
8,6 T US$
0 US$
458 Tr US$
6 T US$
1,1 T US$
406 Tr US$
1,8 T US$
-14,2 T US$
9,6 T US$
10,4 T US$
14,4 T US$
18,1 T US$
16 T US$
16,7%
—
10,8%
—
2024-12-31
20,8 T US$
5 T US$
3,5 T US$
9,8 T US$
9,8 T US$
0 US$
481 Tr US$
—
1 T US$
398 Tr US$
-536 Tr US$
-8,9 T US$
-611 Tr US$
14,4 T US$
14,8 T US$
17,8 T US$
15,5 T US$
21,9%
—
11,0%
—
2025-12-31
19,1 T US$
5,1 T US$
3,6 T US$
9,9 T US$
9,9 T US$
0 US$
514 Tr US$
—
2,9 T US$
427 Tr US$
-295 Tr US$
-4,9 T US$
-4,7 T US$
14,8 T US$
15 T US$
17,3 T US$
15,2 T US$
24,2%
—
9,8%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Synchrony Financial (SYF) trades at 6.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: SoFi Technologies, Inc., Capital One Financial Corporation, W. R. Berkley Corporation and M&T Bank Corporation, as of 2026-10-06 to 2026-10-07.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Contraction
Industry capex-to-revenue is 2.4% and capex-to-depreciation is 0.9, indicating disciplined capital deployment across consumer credit institutions.
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Sustained consumer spending and declining interest rates expand credit card receivables while keeping delinquency provisions low.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
Macroeconomic contraction or persistent inflation elevates cardholder charge-offs, while deposit competition drives up funding expenses.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Embedded Digital Point-of-Sale Lending
positive
Integration into merchant mobile and digital checkouts broadens consumer access to store financing programs.
Credit Card Regulatory Fee Pressures
negative
Regulatory restrictions on late fees or interchange rates pressure non-interest fee revenues across consumer credit portfolios.
Định vị
Synchrony relies on contractual partner risk sharing and high asset yields to defend operating earnings across changing interest rate regimes.4
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
4-6%
Supported by robust operating cash generation, steady share count reduction, and a substantial discount to Fair value of $96.50.6
Rủi ro
Cap portfolio exposure at 6% to manage consumer credit cyclicality and potential cardholder delinquency spikes across private-label card programs.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
At or below $75.00
Initiate core position
Secures entry at an attractive discount to Fair value of $96.50.
Below $68.00
Add on market pullbacks
Expands position near the 52-week low range of $63.08 to $88.77, increasing margin of safety.
Synchrony trades at a forward P/E of 6.67x against peer Capital One at 8.22x, while generating a durable return on equity of ~20.8% and $9.85B in annual operating cash flow, offering an attractive 33.73% upside to our $96.50 Fair value.3,4,6
Income & Capital Return Focus
Buy
The company retired substantial equity by reducing shares outstanding from 373.9M average in FY2025 to 325.37M in October 2026, combining ongoing buybacks with a $1.36 annualized dividend per share to deliver superior total shareholder return.4,6
Credit Cyclicality / Risk-Conscious
Hold
Conservative investors should monitor high benchmark borrowing costs (5.31% risk-free rate) and $16.43B in total debt, watching for any sign that cardholder delinquencies challenge retailer loss-sharing buffers before expanding beyond standard portfolio weightings.2,4
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Mua mạnh
We recommend a Strong Buy on Synchrony Financial at the report-date price of $72.16 on October 6, 2026, offering 33.73% upside to our Fair value of $96.50. The company's specialized promotional financing franchise and contractual retailer risk-sharing agreements defend operating margins near 24.17%, while $9.85B in annual operating cash flow funds sustained share retirement that compounds diluted EPS toward consensus FY2027 estimates of $10.44.1,4,6
Investors should establish a 4% to 6% core portfolio position at or below $75.00, capitalizing on an attractive valuation discount where Synchrony trades at a forward P/E of 6.67x against peer Capital One's 8.22x. Downside risks are cushioned by contractual retailer loss-sharing, and long-term capital compounding remains anchored to durable ~20.8% returns on equity.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Forward P/E multiple contracting below 5.5x over 24 months due to prolonged credit cycle distress or regulatory constraints on card fee structures.4
FV impact
-4.3%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 24 months
Loss of anchor merchant partners or reduced consumer purchase volume across partner stores shrinks loan receivables, directly reducing merchant discount fees and net interest income.
Surging consumer credit risk spreads and higher debt service requirements increase the required return on equity capital, dampening fundamental valuation multiples across revolving lending assets.
Hiện tại:10.26% as of 2026-10-07
Cảnh báo nếuRises above 12.00% over the next 12 months
Elevated deposit interest expenses combined with rising cardholder charge-offs squeeze net interest spread, reducing net earnings available for equity accretion and reinvestment.
Hiện tại:18.58% in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuDrops below 15.00% in FY2026
05
Annual Share Repurchase Curtailment
Halting share repurchases to preserve regulatory capital ratios eliminates the per-share accretion tailwind, stalling diluted earnings growth even if asset balances remain stable.
Hiện tại:$2.94B in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếuDrops to or below $0 over any four consecutive quarters
medium
12-18 months
Floating-rate card asset yields reprice with benchmark rates, while retailer loss-sharing buffers net interest margins.2
The bull case assumes consumer credit delinquencies peak early, enabling credit reserve releases and operating margin expansion toward Potential value $136.44. Accelerated buybacks compound per-share growth, though higher cardholder default rates would invalidate this trajectory.1,6
