Khi được bạn cho phép, chúng tôi sử dụng phân tích giới hạn, chú trọng quyền riêng tư để hiểu hành trình nghiên cứu nào hiệu quả. Chúng tôi không dùng trình theo dõi quảng cáo hoặc ghi lại phiên. Bạn có thể thay đổi lựa chọn này trong Tùy chọn. Đọc Chính sách quyền riêng tư.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
SYY — frequently asked questions
Is Sysco Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-03, SYY looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 77,5 USD versus our fair value of 86,2 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 109 USD. That implies roughly 11.2% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, gives SYY a fair value of 86,2 USD and a potential value of 109 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Sysco Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy SYY now?
Our latest published rating for SYY, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Buy. Sysco Corporation looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 77,5 USD versus fair value of 86,2 USD; potential value is 109 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for SYY?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-03 documents Sysco Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is SYY's rating?
Our latest published rating for SYY, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 86,2 USD, the potential value of 109 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (77,5 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyBuy
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$77.49
Giá trị hợp lý
$86.19
Giá trị tiềm năng
$108.90
Tính đến
2026-10-02
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Accelerating warehouse automation and inventory forecasting accuracy represent the primary upside opportunity, unlocking up to $250,000,000 in working capital cash per day of inventory reduction and expanding consolidated operating margins beyond 3.90% toward 4.0%.
Sysco Corporation presents an 11.23% upside opportunity to an intrinsic fair value of $86.19 per share from $77.49 as of 2026-10-02. Dominant scale in U.S. Foodservice Operations, strong cash conversion generating $1,938,000,000 in free cash flow, and inventory productivity initiatives support durable equity value creation.4,6
Downside risks center on cyclical softening in food-away-from-home dining traffic, unhedged inbound freight and fuel cost absorption which reduced Q4 FY2026 gross margin by 17 basis points to 18.7%, and debt service exposure across $14,967,000,000 in total debt. Sysco's computed of 7.0896% reflects debt refinancing requirements over the medium term. Furthermore, International Foodservice of 2.89% ($463,000,000 on $16,042,000,000 ) structurally dilutes domestic profitability until procurement scale matches U.S. levels.
Countering these headwinds, Sysco's core earnings engine in U.S. Foodservice Operations demonstrated durable scale in FY2026, delivering $58,803,000,000 in revenue and $3,518,000,000 in operating profit (5.98% margin). Core volume growth gained 2.6% in Q4 FY2026 across local and national accounts. Operating cash flow generation reached $2,638,000,000 and free cash flow reached $1,938,000,000 on disciplined capital expenditures of $700,000,000.5,6,7,8
Supply chain productivity initiatives showed measurable progress, with supply chain expenses growing slower than revenue and case volume in FY2026. Outbound fill rates and inventory forecasting accuracy unlock up to $250,000,000 of working capital cash per day of inventory reduction. Concurrently, International Foodservice achieved 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit operating income growth, providing diversified cash flow streams across Canada ($6,513,000,000) and the United Kingdom ($4,487,000,000).5,8
Valuation synthesis establishes a compositefair value of $86.19 per share, anchored primarily by an enterprise DCF model at $97.82 (35% weight), a forward earnings model at $67.81 (30% weight) based on FY2028 consensus EPS of $5.37 and a 16.0x multiple, discounted earnings at $97.71 (20% weight), owner earnings at $69.06 (10% weight), and multi-stage moat fade at $103.25 (5% weight). At $77.49 as of 2026-10-02, Sysco trades at a 10.09% discount to intrinsic value, supporting a Buy rating.1,2,4
Dominant Scale and Route Density in U.S. Foodservice
Sysco's U.S. Foodservice division generated $58,803,000,000 in revenue and $3,518,000,000 in operating income in FY2026, achieving a 5.98% margin and 2.6% case volume growth in Q4 FY2026 through local route clustering and cold-chain scale that smaller peers cannot replicate.5,8
High Free Cash Flow Conversion and Dividend Track Record
Supply chain expenses grew slower than case volume and revenue in FY2026, while advanced forecasting initiatives target up to $250,000,000 in working capital cash release per day of inventory reduction, supporting margin expansion toward 3.90%.5
Khuyến nghị của hãng
We rate Sysco Corporation (SYY) a Buy with a fair value of $86.19 per share, representing an 11.23% implied upside from $77.49 as of 2026-10-02. The shares trade at a 10.09% discount to intrinsic value, underpinned by Sysco's dominant U.S. broadline scale, strong cash conversion exceeding $1.9 billion in free cash flow, and defensible route density.4,6
Tổng quan công ty
Sysco Corporation is the global leader in selling, marketing, and distributing food and non-food products to restaurants, healthcare and educational facilities, lodging establishments, and other customers who prepare meals away from home. In FY2026, the company generated $84,553,000,000 in consolidated revenue across its broadline, customized, and international distribution operations.
The company's primary operating division, U.S. Foodservice Operations, generated $58,803,000,000 in revenue (69.5% of consolidated total) and $3,518,000,000 in operating income. International Foodservice Operations contributed $16,042,000,000 in revenue, anchored by operations in Canada ($6,513,000,000), the United Kingdom ($4,487,000,000), France ($1,897,000,000), and Sweden ($1,032,000,000). Sysco also operates SYGMA, a customized distribution network for quick-service restaurant chains generating $8,623,000,000 in revenue.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
A severe cyclical downturn in food-away-from-home dining traffic combined with persistent unhedged inbound fuel and wage inflation represents Sysco's primary operational stress scenario. In this event, revenue growth decelerates below 2.50%, and consolidated operating margin contracts from FY2026's 3.66% to below 3.50%. Annual operating cash flow falls below $2,400,000,000 compared to $2,638,000,000 in FY2026, while free cash flow compresses toward $1.5 billion. Simultaneously, higher refinancing yields on Sysco's $14,967,000,000 total debt burden expand WACC from 7.0896% to 8.09%, depressing discounted cash flows. While Sysco's customer diversification across healthcare, educational, and institutional channels provides demand resilience, equity value under these stressed parameters is conditional upon maintaining cost pass-through discipline.
In the bear case, persistent consumer inflation and restaurant traffic softening curb case volume growth while unhedged inbound fuel and freight costs compress operating margins below 3.50%. Elevated debt service on $14,967,000,000 of total debt restricts free cash flow toward $1.5 billion, and multiple de-rating depresses valuation toward the conditional bear value of $64.74.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Valuation multiple de-rating due to wholesale distributor margin compression and permanent broadline growth slowdown
Sysco trades at a forward P/E of 15.22x against an assumed terminal P/E of 16.0x. A multiple de-rating toward 12.8x (near peer KDP's forward P/E of 11.98x) reduces discounted terminal equity value.3,4
FV impact
-4.7%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
U.S. Foodservice revenue falling below 65.0% of consolidated revenue signals market share loss in core broadline distribution, diluting route density advantages.
Hiện tại:69.5%
Cảnh báo nếu< 65.0%
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
Sysco holds a narrow economic moat grounded in structural cost advantages from route density and procurement scale, reinforced by efficient scale in regional cold-chain distribution. In FY2026, Sysco generated $84,553,000,000 in consolidated revenue, with its flagship U.S. Foodservice Operations contributing $58,803,000,000 (69.5%) in revenue and $3,518,000,000 in operating income at a 5.98% margin. This concentration creates local delivery density that regional competitors cannot duplicate, lowering distribution cost per case.
The company's distribution infrastructure functions as an essential intermediary between thousands of food manufacturers and fragmented foodservice operators. While branded packaged goods suppliers such as CCEP achieve operating margins of 13.40% and gross margins of 35.57%, Sysco operates on high-turnover distributor unit economics with a 3.66% operating margin and an 18.5% gross margin. Customers relying on white-glove multi-temperature delivery face meaningful operational switching costs.
Geographic diversification through International Foodservice Operations adds scale across Canada ($6,513,000,000 revenue) and the United Kingdom ($4,487,000,000 revenue). Although international operating margins of 2.89% ($463,000,000 operating income on $16,042,000,000 revenue) currently lag domestic levels, 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit operating income growth reflect progressive operational maturation.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Sysco generates consistent economic profit across business cycles. ROIC of 15.26% exceeds its computed WACC of 7.0896% and cost of equity of 7.9790%, producing an economic spread over 800 basis points. In FY2026, Sysco generated $2,638,000,000 in operating cash flow and $1,938,000,000 in free cash flow on $700,000,000 of capital expenditure, validating durable cash compounding well above its cost of capital.2,6,7
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Distribution Route Density and Inbound Procurement Scale — Sysco's scale across $84,553,000,000 in consolidated revenue and $58,803,000,000 in U.S. Foodservice Operations generates unmatched route clustering, lowering delivery cost per case and securing supplier volume rebates.Wide
02Efficient Scale in Regional Cold-Chain Logistics — Replicating Sysco's nationwide network of temperature-controlled distribution centers and dedicated delivery fleets requires prohibitive capital investment in an industry operating at 3.66% operating margins.Wide
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Unhedged Inbound Logistics and Fuel Cost Inflation
medium
12-24 months
Management monitors inbound freight and implements contract cost-plus pricing adjustments and supply chain expense productivity.5
Food-Away-From-Home Demand Contraction from Macroeconomic Softening
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($86.19). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.2B after modeled reinvestment of $304.1M, with terminal value at 83.0% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Under the base case, Sysco compounds steadily as North America's leading broadline foodservice distributor. Core U.S. Foodservice Operations maintain route density and commercial momentum, growing case volumes at 2.5-3.0% annually. Supply chain expense productivity keeps cost inflation below top-line growth, allowing consolidated operating margin to expand from 3.66% to 3.90% by FY2031. Free cash flow conversion remains above $1.9 billion annually, supporting steady dividend growth, balanced reinvestment, and gradual deleveraging toward the base intrinsic fair value of $86.19.5,6
Inventory forecasting accuracy and warehouse automation unlock $250 million per inventory day in working capital cash.5
§7 Cây quyết định lợi nhuậnEN
Vượt
Upgrade the rating; Consider expanding position sizing toward upper policy limits if local case volume growth accelerates and operating margin expands.
Maintain Buy; Maintain current target position weighting; monitor quarterly working capital release and inventory days.
Kích hoạt: Diluted EPS between $1.05 and $1.10, Revenue between $21,543,600,000 and $21,816,765,000
Results aligning with consensus expectations confirm steady 2.5-3.0% volume growth and cost pass-through without altering the baseline compounding trajectory.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Pause incremental additions, reassess local restaurant dining traffic indicators, and examine inbound freight cost absorption.
Cash flow conversion is robust. FY2026 operating cash flow was $2,638,000,000, while capital expenditures were $700,000,000, yielding free cash flow of $1,938,000,000 and an FCF conversion rate of 110.3% relative to net income of $1,757,000,000. D&A of $976,000,000 exceeds capex, confirming modest maintenance capital intensity.6,7
Phân bổ vốn
Management prioritizes debt deleveraging, dividend continuity, and targeted M&A. Sysco holds $1,786,000,000 in cash against $14,967,000,000 in total debt. The company maintains its 57-year track record of dividend increases (Dividend Aristocrat) with an annual dividend run rate of $2.20 per share. Management paused share buybacks to preserve balance sheet strength during pending acquisitions like Restaurant Depot.
Sysco produced $2,638,000,000 in operating cash flow and $1,938,000,000 in in FY2026, with inventory forecasting initiatives targeting $250,000,000 of cash unlock per inventory day.
Doanh thu mới nhất84,6 T US$CAGR doanh thu +4,8%
Biên hoạt động3,7%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất1,9 T US$FY2026
Nợ ròng13,2 T US$FY2026
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.30 thg 6, 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu22,1 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−18 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp4,1 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−3,2 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động984 Tr US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−432 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng552 Tr US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
22.124.000.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
17.990.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
4.134.000.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
3.150.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
984.000.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-432.000.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
552.000.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản28,4 T US$Tiền mặt1,8 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn13,4 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả25,7 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn10,5 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu2,7 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
28.397.000.000 US$
Tiền mặt
1.786.000.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
13.437.000.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
25.731.000.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
10.523.000.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
2.666.000.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng1,8 T US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+976 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+118 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−213 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động2,6 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ1,3 T US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+2,6 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−696 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−1,2 T US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá−14 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ2,1 T US$
2,6 T US$ − 700 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 1,9 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
1.757.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
2.851.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
976.000.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
118.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
2.638.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
213.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
3.986.000.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
1.348.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
696.000.000 US$
Capex
700.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
1.159.000.000 US$
Phát hành nợ ròng
81.000.000 US$
Mua lại cổ phiếu
200.000.000 US$
Cổ tức đã trả
1.037.000.000 US$
Hoạt động tài chính khác
3.000.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
14.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
2.117.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-696.000.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-1.159.000.000 US$
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2026-06-27.
84,6 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng
U.S.Foodservice Operations58,8 T US$69,5%+3,2% so với cùng kỳ
International Foodservice Operations16 T US$19%+7,6% so với cùng kỳ
Sygma8,6 T US$10,2%+2,5% so với cùng kỳ
All Other Segments1,1 T US$1,3%−0,5% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-08-21 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
U.S.Foodservice Operations
58,8 T US$
69,5%
3,2%
International Foodservice Operations
16 T US$
19%
7,6%
Sygma
8,6 T US$
10,2%
2,5%
All Other Segments
1,1 T US$
1,3%
-0,5%
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2026-06-27.
84,6 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
United States68,1 T US$80,6%+3,1% so với cùng kỳ
Canada6,5 T US$7,7%+6,5% so với cùng kỳ
United Kingdom4,5 T US$5,3%+9,9% so với cùng kỳ
Other Geographic Areas2,5 T US$3%+1,1% so với cùng kỳ
France1,9 T US$2,2%+10,7% so với cùng kỳ
Sweden1 T US$1,2%+14,5% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-08-21 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
United States
68,1 T US$
80,6%
3,1%
Canada
6,5 T US$
7,7%
6,5%
United Kingdom
4,5 T US$
5,3%
9,9%
Other Geographic Areas
2,5 T US$
3%
1,1%
France
1,9 T US$
2,2%
10,7%
Sweden
1 T US$
1,2%
14,5%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-03.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2017-07-01
55,4 T US$
3 T US$
1,1 T US$
2,2 T US$
1,5 T US$
686,4 Tr US$
902 Tr US$
83,9 Tr US$
1,9 T US$
698,6 Tr US$
—
-3,6 T US$
-1,7 T US$
—
869,5 Tr US$
870,2 Tr US$
8,2 T US$
3,7%
—
4,1%
—
2018-06-30
58,7 T US$
3,1 T US$
1,4 T US$
2,2 T US$
1,5 T US$
687,8 Tr US$
765,5 Tr US$
93,8 Tr US$
978,9 Tr US$
722,2 Tr US$
—
-910,4 Tr US$
-1,4 T US$
869,5 Tr US$
715,8 Tr US$
552,3 Tr US$
8,3 T US$
3,9%
—
5,0%
—
2019-06-29
60,1 T US$
3,1 T US$
1,7 T US$
2,4 T US$
1,7 T US$
692,4 Tr US$
763,9 Tr US$
104,9 Tr US$
1 T US$
775,4 Tr US$
—
-742,9 Tr US$
-1,8 T US$
715,8 Tr US$
532,2 Tr US$
525,5 Tr US$
8,1 T US$
3,9%
—
4,2%
—
2020-06-27
52,9 T US$
1,6 T US$
215,5 Tr US$
1,6 T US$
898,3 Tr US$
720,4 Tr US$
805,8 Tr US$
42,2 Tr US$
844,7 Tr US$
856,3 Tr US$
—
-756,3 Tr US$
4,7 T US$
532,2 Tr US$
6,1 T US$
6,1 T US$
12,9 T US$
1,4%
—
5,1%
—
2021-07-03
51,3 T US$
2,3 T US$
524,2 Tr US$
1,9 T US$
1,4 T US$
470,7 Tr US$
737,9 Tr US$
95,8 Tr US$
0 US$
917,6 Tr US$
—
-428,7 Tr US$
-4,6 T US$
6,1 T US$
3 T US$
3 T US$
10,6 T US$
2,8%
—
7,3%
—
2022-07-02
68,6 T US$
3,3 T US$
1,4 T US$
1,8 T US$
1,2 T US$
633 Tr US$
773 Tr US$
122 Tr US$
500 Tr US$
959 Tr US$
-642 Tr US$
-1,9 T US$
-2 T US$
3 T US$
931 Tr US$
867 Tr US$
11,4 T US$
3,4%
—
7,1%
—
2023-07-01
76,3 T US$
3,7 T US$
1,8 T US$
2,9 T US$
2,1 T US$
793 Tr US$
776 Tr US$
96 Tr US$
500 Tr US$
996 Tr US$
-581 Tr US$
-785 Tr US$
-2,1 T US$
931 Tr US$
966 Tr US$
745 Tr US$
11,2 T US$
4,0%
—
7,6%
—
2024-06-29
78,8 T US$
4,2 T US$
2 T US$
3 T US$
2,2 T US$
832 Tr US$
873 Tr US$
104 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
1 T US$
1,1 T US$
-2 T US$
-1 T US$
966 Tr US$
945 Tr US$
1,9 T US$
12,9 T US$
4,1%
—
8,1%
—
2025-06-28
81,4 T US$
4,1 T US$
1,8 T US$
2,5 T US$
1,6 T US$
906 Tr US$
945 Tr US$
93 Tr US$
1,3 T US$
1 T US$
750 Tr US$
-717 Tr US$
-1,4 T US$
945 Tr US$
1,3 T US$
1,1 T US$
14,5 T US$
3,8%
—
5,6%
—
2026-06-27
84,6 T US$
3 T US$
1,8 T US$
2,6 T US$
1,9 T US$
700 Tr US$
976 Tr US$
118 Tr US$
200 Tr US$
1 T US$
81 Tr US$
-696 Tr US$
-1,2 T US$
1,3 T US$
2,1 T US$
1,8 T US$
15 T US$
3,7%
—
5,7%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Sysco Corporation (SYY) trades at 15.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 17.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.2x compares with a peer median of 16.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., Mondelez International Inc., Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC and Monster Beverage Corporation, as of 2026-10-03.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Because industry-level capacity, supply, lead-time, and capital-intensity benchmarks are unavailable in the source data, the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited. Sysco reinvested $700,000,000 in capex in FY2026 against $976,000,000 in depreciation and amortization, maintaining disciplined maintenance capital allocation.7
Chu kỳ tăng giá
Acceleration in consumer food-away-from-home spending boosts restaurant foot traffic and broadline case volume growth, enabling Sysco to leverage warehouse and route density to expand operating margins toward 3.90%.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
Macroeconomic pressures or persistent inflation reduce discretionary restaurant dining, slowing case volume growth below 2.50% and compressing distributor gross margins as unhedged inbound freight costs rise.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Shift to Prepared Food and Dining Out
positive
Long-term consumer preference for prepared meals and dining out supports steady baseline broadline volume growth across restaurant and hospitality channels.
Logistics and Cold-Chain Consolidation
positive
Stringent cold-chain regulatory requirements, high warehouse automation costs, and driver availability favor scale players like Sysco with unmatched route density over fragmented regional operators.
Định vị
Sysco is the dominant broadline foodservice distributor in North America, with $58,803,000,000 in U.S. Foodservice revenue and $16,042,000,000 in International Foodservice revenue. Its route density, customer breadth across restaurants and institutions, and purchasing scale insulate it from food manufacturer peer models.3,5,8
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
3-5%
A 3-5% target weighting is appropriate for Sysco as a defensive mature compounder generating $84.55B revenue and $1.94B in free cash flow, with 11.23% upside to fair value of $86.19, balanced against balance sheet leverage of $14.97B debt.4,6,7
Rủi ro
Risk management focuses on monitoring food-away-from-home customer demand, fuel cost volatility, and refinancing conditions for Sysco's $14,967,000,000 debt load. The position should be sized between 3-5% of total portfolio assets, with regular adherence to quarterly checkpoints governing operating margin, cash flow conversion, and domestic revenue share.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$76.00 - $78.00
Initiate primary core position
Trading at $77.49 as of 2026-10-02 represents a 10.09% discount to intrinsic fair value of $86.19 and trades at an attractive forward P/E of 15.22x.
$71.00 - $74.00
Add to position on cyclical pullbacks
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
$86.00 - $88.00
Trim position by 25-30% as shares converge with base casefair value of $86.19.
$98.00 - $105.00
Substantially trim or exit position as shares approach the upper boundary of intrinsic valuation ($108.90).
Dominant scale in U.S. Foodservice ($58,803,000,000 revenue) and route density sustain a 15.26% ROIC that reliably exceeds the 7.0896% computed WACC.2,8
We recommend a Buy rating on Sysco Corporation (SYY) with an intrinsic fair value of $86.19 per share, representing an 11.23% implied upside from $77.49 as of 2026-10-02. Sysco's dominant route density in U.S. Foodservice Operations ($58,803,000,000 FY2026 revenue) and robust $1,938,000,000 free cash flow provide reliable earnings compounding at a 10.09% price discount to intrinsic value.4,6,8
While macroeconomic pressures on restaurant dining foot traffic and debt service on $14,967,000,000 of total debt warrant disciplined monitoring, supply chain productivity improvements and working capital optimization unlocking up to $250,000,000 per inventory day offer tangible support for operating margin expansion toward 3.90%.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Private notes
Visible only to you. Synced to this device.
0 chars
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Sustained higher interest rate environment and debt refinancing yield spike
Sysco carries $14,967,000,000 in total debt with computed WACC of 7.0896%. A 100 bps expansion in WACC to 8.09% driven by refinancing yields on debt maturities impairs discounted equity value.2,4
FV impact
-15.7%
Cost of capital 1 point higher
Trigger
Within 24 months
operating_cash_flow
Trailing operating cash flow dropping below $2,400,000,000 indicates supply chain cost inflation and working capital inventory buildup, impairing FCFF conversion.
Hiện tại:$2,638,000,000
Cảnh báo nếu< $2,400,000,000
03
international_operating_margin
International operating margin falling below 2.50% confirms structural profitability drag from non-U.S. broadline operations, requiring downward revisions to consolidated EBIT margins.
Hiện tại:2.89%
Cảnh báo nếu< 2.50%
04
gross_margin
Gross margin falling below 17.5% signals loss of contract cost-plus markup discipline against upstream food suppliers and unhedged fuel inflation.
Hiện tại:18.5%
Cảnh báo nếu< 17.5%
05
operating_margin
Consolidated operating margin dropping below 3.50% demonstrates that route density efficiencies are failing to offset warehouse labor and transportation inflation, threatening baseline operating profit.
Hiện tại:3.66%
Cảnh báo nếu< 3.50%
03
Switching Costs and Mission-Critical Operational Integration — Independent and chain restaurants depend on Sysco's broadline SKU breadth and delivery reliability, making vendor substitution disruptive to kitchen operations.
Moderate
high
12-18 months
Customer diversification across healthcare, educational institutions, and government facilities cushions cyclical restaurant dining contraction.7,8
International Segment Profitability Lag and Integration Friction
low
24-36 months
Procurement harmonization and route density expansion across Canada and Europe narrow the margin gap with domestic operations.5,8
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (21,26 US$) plus discounted terminal value (104 US$) minus signed per current share (27,49 US$) equals the 97,82 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the bull case, accelerated adoption of inventory forecasting and warehouse automation releases substantial working capital cash, while international foodservice margins converge toward domestic levels. Operating margins surpass 4.00% and EPS compounding accelerates toward 8.5% annually, enabling rapid balance sheet deleveraging, resumption of share repurchases, and multiple expansion toward the upper valuation boundary of $108.90.5
Vì sao quan trọng
Decoupling supply chain expenses from revenue and case volume growth is critical to expanding operating margins toward 3.90%.5
Provides internal liquidity to fund debt service, support dividend growth, and maintain a reinvestment rate of 12% to 15% of NOPAT without dilutive financing.
U.S. Foodservice Operations achieved a 5.98% operating margin ($3,518,000,000 operating income on $58,803,000,000 revenue), while consolidated operating margin was 3.66% on $84,553,000,000 revenue.
The domestic business remains the engine of earnings, absorbing cost pressures from fuel and labor while supporting international expansion.
International Profitability Lag Caps Consolidated Margin Expansion
International Foodservice revenue reached $16,042,000,000, but operating profit of $463,000,000 yielded a 2.89% margin, substantially below domestic profitability.
Until European procurement scale matures, international growth offers top-line diversification but dilutes consolidated margins, capping near-term EBIT margin expansion at 3.70% to 3.90%.
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLCCCEP
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý115,74 US$Report-date price91,86 US$
