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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
TER — frequently asked questions
Is Teradyne, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-21, TER looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 345 USD versus our fair value of 192 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 246 USD. That implies roughly 44.3% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-21, gives TER a fair value of 192 USD and a potential value of 246 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Teradyne, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy TER now?
Our latest published rating for TER, analyzed 2026-10-21, is Sell. Teradyne, Inc. looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of 345 USD versus fair value of 192 USD; potential value is 246 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for TER?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-21 documents Teradyne, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is TER's rating?
Our latest published rating for TER, analyzed 2026-10-21, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 7.5/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 192 USD, the potential value of 246 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (345 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâySell
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$345.49
Giá trị hợp lý
$192.45
Giá trị tiềm năng
$245.85
Tính đến
2026-10-21
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
The most compelling operational upside opportunity lies in accelerated commercialization of co-packaged optics (CPO), which is projected to expand into a $300M-$700M market by 2028, alongside rapid hyperscaler deployment of custom ARM server silicon.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Test equipment spending as a percentage of total semiconductor capital expenditure reverting from 8.0% in 2026 toward 6.0%-7.0% in 2027.
Teradyne, Inc. (TER) receives a Sell rating from our investment committee with a Fair value of $192.45 per share, reflecting a -44.3% implied return relative to the analysis price of $345.49, which trades at a 79.5% price premium relative to Fair value.3
Teradyne is benefiting from a strong cyclical demand surge across its automated test equipment business, catalyzed by expanding test intensity for artificial intelligence compute accelerators, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and 2.5D/3D advanced packaging architectures. In Q2 2026, revenue expanded 104% year-over-year to $1,329 million, driven by $1,122 million in Semiconductor Test revenue, while GAAP diluted EPS surged to $2.38. Management guided Q3 2026 revenue between $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion with non-GAAP between 28% and 30%.
Despite robust near-term operational momentum, market valuation has completely detached from underlying economic fundamentals. At the analysis price of $345.49, Teradyne trades at a forward P/E multiple of 30.67x. This multiple sits far above front-end semiconductor capital equipment leaders Lam Research (22.17x forward P/E) and Applied Materials (21.90x forward P/E). Diagnostic reverse DCF modeling confirms that current market pricing implies an unrealistic 33.29% 10-year earnings compound annual growth rate.3
Crucially, management has acknowledged that test equipment intensity as a percentage of semiconductor capex could mean-revert from 8% in 2026 back toward 6% to 7% in 2027. Coupled with cloud hyperscalers actively qualifying dual-vendor test architectures and fierce pricing contestation from Advantest, Teradyne faces severe cyclical multiple contraction risk as capacity additions normalize. We assign a Sell rating and recommend liquidating long positions.4
Switching Costs from Test Cell Software and Hardware Ecosystem Integration
Teradyne's automated test equipment operates within interconnected customer test cells where established test software, load boards, probe cards, and material handlers create high qualification barriers and software switching costs for leading fabless designers and OSAT facilities. These sticky interfaces support guided gross margins of 58% to 59% in Q3 and around 59% for the full year.4
Proprietary Automated Test Architecture and Advanced Packaging IP
Proprietary automated test architecture and engineering expertise in high-density instrumentation, advanced packaging test cells (CoWoS, chiplets), and co-packaged optics (CPO) test partnerships create distinct technical moats, with CPO TAM projected to reach $300M to $700M by 2028.4
Cycle upside
The bull cycle is propelled by structural packaging complexity in artificial intelligence silicon, multi-die chiplets, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which significantly lengthens test times and raises test equipment spending from 4% of semiconductor capex in 2023 to 8% in 2026. As foundry advanced packaging lines ramp up and memory customers add test cells into 2027, automated test equipment TAM expands toward management's long-term target of $20 billion by the end of the decade.4
Khuyến nghị của hãng
The investment committee assigns a Sell rating to Teradyne, Inc. (TER). The house Fair value of $192.45 per share sits 44.3% below the analysis price of $345.49. While operating results are accelerating, current equity valuation discounts an implausible multi-year hypergrowth scenario that fails to account for capital cycle cyclicality, Advantest competition, and customer dual-sourcing. Investors should exit long positions.3
Tổng quan công ty
Teradyne, Inc. (NASDAQ: TER) designs, develops, and manufactures automated test equipment and advanced collaborative robotics systems. The company operates primarily through its Semiconductor Test, Product Test, and Robotics business segments.
Semiconductor Test is the dominant earnings driver, delivering $2,523,744,000 in FY2025 (79.1% of consolidated revenue) and expanding to $1,122M in Q2 2026 (84.4% of revenue). Product Test generated $357,985,000 and Robotics contributed $308,295,000 in FY2025.
Teradyne's customers include leading global fabless semiconductor designers, integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), and outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) providers, alongside manufacturing enterprises deploying collaborative automation robots.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
Our stress test evaluates the compound impact of a cyclical inflection where hyperscaler compute test investments pause, test intensity reverts from 8% toward 6%-7% of semiconductor capex, and Advantest price contestation compresses normalized operating margins below 26.5%. Under this synchronized stress environment, annual revenue growth slows to 2% and then turns flat, while Teradyne's forward P/E derates to 18.0x. Combining these operational pressures with strict cost of capital discounting at 12.69% depresses fair value toward the lower boundary of our range at $145.05. At the analysis price of $345.49, investors face severe capital drawdown vulnerability should cyclical peak conditions falter.
Teradyne trades at a forward P/E of 30.67x, commanding a substantial premium over front-end capital equipment peers LRCX at 22.17x and AMAT at 21.90x. If artificial intelligence compute test intensity growth stalls and cloud hyperscalers enter a capex digestion cycle, Teradyne's multiple contracts below 24.5x over the next 12 months, delivering an estimated fair value impact of -20%.3
FV impact
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Multiple compression signals market repricing toward semiconductor equipment peer medians as hyperscaler test capacity additions pause.
Hiện tại:30.67x
Cảnh báo nếu< 24.50x
02
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Narrow
Teradyne maintains a Narrow economic moat grounded in high switching costs and proprietary automated test architectures across its Semiconductor Test franchise. In automated test equipment, once an integrated circuit design is programmed, characterized, and released into high-volume production on Teradyne's UltraFLEX or Eagle test platforms, substituting a competing tester introduces significant engineering friction, software reprogramming, and yield risk for chip designers and outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) providers.
This platform stickiness is reflected in robust gross profitability, with management guiding full-year gross margins around 59%, aligning with FY2025 realized gross profit of $1,857,345,000 (58.2% gross margin). Economic profit generation is substantial: invested capital of $2,995,752,000 generates operating earnings well above the moderate cost of equity of 11.68%.
However, the moat remains bounded rather than Wide due to the competitive structure of the automated test equipment industry. Teradyne shares a duopoly with Advantest, which aggressively defends memory test and standard SoC sockets. Furthermore, major hyperscalers are qualifying dual-vendor sourcing arrangements in compute test to mitigate supply disruption risks, preventing unconstrained pricing power over multi-year cycles.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Teradyne generates economic profits well in excess of its computed moderate cost of equity of 11.68%. In FY2025, operating income of $650,051,000 on invested capital of $2,995,752,000 demonstrated durable economic returns. In Q2 2026, operating income reached $437,810,000, reflecting strong cyclical return expansion. However, these returns fluctuate across capital cycles and do not insulate equity holders from overvaluation risk at current market multiples.2,5,6
7.5/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Switching Costs from Test Cell Software and Hardware Ecosystem Integration — Teradyne's automated test equipment operates within interconnected customer test cells where established test software, load boards, probe cards, and material handlers create high qualification barriers and software switching costs for leading fabless designers and OSAT facilities. These sticky interfaces support guided gross margins of 58% to 59% in Q3 and around 59% for the full year.Wide
02Proprietary Automated Test Architecture and Advanced Packaging IP — Proprietary automated test architecture and engineering expertise in high-density instrumentation, advanced packaging test cells (CoWoS, chiplets), and co-packaged optics (CPO) test partnerships create distinct technical moats, with CPO TAM projected to reach $300M to $700M by 2028.Moderate
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
Hyperscaler dual-vendor qualification strategies in custom compute test architectures eroding single-supplier status.
medium
12 to 24 months
Continuous R&D investments in high-density test instrumentation, UltraFLEX next-generation architectures, and strategic partnerships in silicon photonics and co-packaged optics test.4
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($192.45). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Accelerating adoption of co-packaged optics, aggressive hyperscaler deployment of custom ARM server silicon, and robotics margin inflection drive compound earnings growth exceeding modeled baseline levels.4
Revenue growth of 61.2% in FY2026 ($5,142M) and 21.8% in FY2027 ($6,264M)
§7 Cây quyết định lợi nhuậnEN
Vượt
Maintain Sell; Re-examine the durability of customer automated test equipment additions, verify whether test intensity is beginning to normalize, and maintain existing defensive allocation discipline without adding exposure.
Kích hoạt: Quarterly revenue exceeding the guided range upper bound alongside non-GAAP operating margin expanding beyond guided targets
Even under an operational beat where high-performance compute tester shipments exceed upper guidance ranges, the elevated market price relative to fundamental Fair value of $192.45 leaves risk-reward heavily skewed toward downside multiple contraction. Exceptional execution validates near-term momentum but does not justify market multiples that far exceed front-end semiconductor equipment peers.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Sell; Monitor tester order book lead times, track recovery trends across industrial robotics and product test, and keep capital deployed in opportunities offering an appropriate margin of safety.
In-line quarterly results confirm that semiconductor test demand matches modeled seasonal patterns, yet market pricing reflects sustained hypergrowth beyond historical industry cyclicality. With the share price at $345.49 versus Fair value of $192.45, the valuation disconnect remains unaddressed.
Hụt
Maintain Sell; Review residual exposure immediately, evaluate whether dual-sourcing by cloud hyperscalers is eroding market share, and ensure stop-loss risk controls remain fully active.
A quarterly operational shortfall would reveal that customer capex digestion, test intensity mean reversion, or back-end packaging bottlenecks are actively restraining tool installations. Under this outcome, high valuation multiples de-rate rapidly toward peer averages, accelerating downside toward Fair value.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Earnings quality is underpinned by healthy cash flow generation, consistent gross margins, and transparent non-GAAP reconciliations. Operating cash flow reliably tracks net income, with non-GAAP adjustments primarily confined to acquired intangible amortization and enterprise resource planning implementation expenses. Working capital expansion reflects active tester inventory assembly during rapid shipment scaling, while obsolete inventory provisions remain contained relative to overall production.
Xu hướng dự báo
Consensus estimate revisions have trended upward following strong second-quarter financial execution and elevated third-quarter guidance. Revisions reflect expanding compute test capacity and cyclical memory test recovery. However, upward revisions have already been fully discounted by the market, with shares trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple well above historical peer ranges.
Hiện tạiOperating at record quarterly run rates supported by high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging test demand.
Vì sao quan trọng
Semiconductor test represents the core revenue and profit engine of the company. Variations in quarterly tool deliveries indicate the pace of customer capacity expansion and signal whether high-performance compute demand remains robust or enters a cyclical digestion pause.
Cash generation is recovering rapidly alongside the semiconductor test cycle inflection. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $674,415,000 and free cash flow reached $450,406,000 after capital expenditures of $224,009,000. In Q2 2026, operating cash flow reached $469,138,000, bringing six-month operating cash flow to $734,262,000. Working capital expansion has absorbed cash to finance elevated accounts receivable ($1,109,711,000 as of June 28, 2026) as tester deliveries accelerate, but underlying cash conversion remains healthy.5,6
Phân bổ vốn
Teradyne maintains a disciplined capital allocation strategy focused on internal reinvestment, bolt-on acquisitions, share repurchases, and regular dividends. In the first six months of 2026, the company deployed $155,439,000 into , $165,611,000 into business acquisitions, $74,238,000 into repurchases, and $40,710,000 into dividend distributions ($0.13 per share quarterly, $0.26 per share YTD). Balance sheet cash and equivalents totaled $349,538,000 as of June 28, 2026, with zero .
Return on invested capital is expanding rapidly during the current cyclical inflection, supported by Q2 2026 operating income of $437,810,000 compared to FY2025 operating income of $650,051,000 on invested capital of $2,995,752,000. Operating efficiency over installed capital assets confirms high returns on incremental capital.
Teradyne's ROIC comfortably exceeds both its moderate cost of equity of 11.68% and its strict cost of capital of 12.69%, demonstrating strong economic value creation despite severe stock price overvaluation.
Semiconductor Test Concentration Drives Powerful Cyclical Operating Leverage
Semiconductor Test delivered $2,523,744,000 (79.1% of revenue) in FY2025 and surged to $1,122M (84.4% of revenue) in Q2 2026.
Operating leverage is intense; non-GAAP expanded to 33.7% in Q2 2026 from 20.38% in FY2025, yet profitability remains highly vulnerable to any downcycle in semiconductor test tool spending.
Doanh thu mới nhất3,2 T US$CAGR doanh thu +6,9%
Biên hoạt động20,4%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất450,4 Tr US$FY2025
Nợ ròng25,1 Tr US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu3,2 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−1,3 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp1,9 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−1,2 T US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động650,1 Tr US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−96 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng554 Tr US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
3.190.024.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
1.332.679.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
1.857.345.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
1.207.294.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
650.051.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-96.004.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
554.047.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản4,2 T US$Tiền mặt293,8 Tr US$Tài sản ngắn hạn1,9 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả1,4 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn1,1 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu2,8 T US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
4.183.599.000 US$
Tiền mặt
293.751.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
1.949.300.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
1.387.847.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
1.115.207.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
2.795.752.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng554 Tr US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+128 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+64 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác−71,6 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động674,4 Tr US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ553,4 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+674,4 Tr US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−368,6 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính−562,3 Tr US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá−3,2 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ293,8 Tr US$
674,4 Tr US$ − 224 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 450,4 Tr US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
554.047.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
746.027.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
127.981.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
63.999.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
674.415.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ hoạt động
71.612.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
1.227.769.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
553.354.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
368.617.000 US$
Capex
224.009.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
144.608.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ tài chính
562.250.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
3.151.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
293.751.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-368.617.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
-562.250.000 US$
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
3,2 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt độngTỷ trọng
Semiconductor Test2,5 T US$79,1%+18,8% so với cùng kỳ
Product Test358 Tr US$11,2%+8,1% so với cùng kỳ
Robotics308,3 Tr US$9,7%−15,5% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu theo phân khúc hoạt động
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
Semiconductor Test
2,5 T US$
79,1%
18,8%
Product Test
358 Tr US$
11,2%
8,1%
Robotics
308,3 Tr US$
9,7%
-15,5%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-21.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
1,8 T US$
68,6 Tr US$
-43,4 Tr US$
455,2 Tr US$
369,9 Tr US$
85,3 Tr US$
120 Tr US$
30,8 Tr US$
146,3 Tr US$
48,6 Tr US$
—
-640,5 Tr US$
228,4 Tr US$
—
307,9 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
540,1 Tr US$
-3,6%
—
—
—
2017-12-31
—
654,2 Tr US$
257,7 Tr US$
626,5 Tr US$
521,1 Tr US$
105,4 Tr US$
108,1 Tr US$
34,1 Tr US$
200,3 Tr US$
55,4 Tr US$
—
-262,8 Tr US$
-245,2 Tr US$
307,9 Tr US$
429,8 Tr US$
1,8 T US$
625,8 Tr US$
—
—
6,7%
—
2018-12-31
—
602,8 Tr US$
451,8 Tr US$
476,9 Tr US$
362,5 Tr US$
114,4 Tr US$
113,2 Tr US$
33,6 Tr US$
823,5 Tr US$
67,3 Tr US$
—
923 Tr US$
-903,4 Tr US$
429,8 Tr US$
926,8 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
416,2 Tr US$
—
—
7,5%
—
2019-12-31
—
668,7 Tr US$
467,5 Tr US$
578,8 Tr US$
444,1 Tr US$
134,6 Tr US$
120,7 Tr US$
37,9 Tr US$
500 Tr US$
61,3 Tr US$
—
-156,7 Tr US$
-574,3 Tr US$
926,8 Tr US$
773,9 Tr US$
911,2 Tr US$
505,9 Tr US$
—
—
7,2%
—
2020-12-31
759 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
784,1 Tr US$
868,9 Tr US$
684 Tr US$
185 Tr US$
126,7 Tr US$
44,9 Tr US$
88,5 Tr US$
66,5 Tr US$
—
-569,8 Tr US$
-158,3 Tr US$
773,9 Tr US$
914,1 Tr US$
1,4 T US$
514,8 Tr US$
122,3%
—
1,4%
—
2021-12-31
3,7 T US$
1,3 T US$
1 T US$
1,1 T US$
965,9 Tr US$
132,5 Tr US$
125,5 Tr US$
45,6 Tr US$
600 Tr US$
66 Tr US$
—
120,4 Tr US$
-1 T US$
914,1 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
1,4 T US$
240,8 Tr US$
32,4%
—
6,2%
—
2022-12-31
3,2 T US$
954,8 Tr US$
715,5 Tr US$
577,9 Tr US$
414,7 Tr US$
163,2 Tr US$
110,7 Tr US$
48,2 Tr US$
752,1 Tr US$
69,7 Tr US$
-66,8 Tr US$
43,8 Tr US$
-893 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
854,8 Tr US$
894,4 Tr US$
197,1 Tr US$
26,4%
—
9,2%
—
2023-12-31
2,7 T US$
611,8 Tr US$
448,8 Tr US$
585,2 Tr US$
425,6 Tr US$
159,6 Tr US$
110,9 Tr US$
57,7 Tr US$
397,2 Tr US$
67,9 Tr US$
-50,3 Tr US$
-179,6 Tr US$
-501,9 Tr US$
854,8 Tr US$
757,6 Tr US$
819,7 Tr US$
82,6 Tr US$
18,7%
—
9,4%
—
2024-12-31
2,8 T US$
732,4 Tr US$
542,4 Tr US$
672,2 Tr US$
474,1 Tr US$
198,1 Tr US$
119,7 Tr US$
60,1 Tr US$
198,6 Tr US$
76,4 Tr US$
0 US$
-622,3 Tr US$
-251,8 Tr US$
757,6 Tr US$
553,4 Tr US$
599,7 Tr US$
134,5 Tr US$
21,1%
—
9,9%
—
2025-12-31
3,2 T US$
812 Tr US$
554 Tr US$
674,4 Tr US$
450,4 Tr US$
224 Tr US$
128 Tr US$
64 Tr US$
702,1 Tr US$
76,3 Tr US$
200 Tr US$
-368,6 Tr US$
-562,3 Tr US$
553,4 Tr US$
293,8 Tr US$
322 Tr US$
347,1 Tr US$
20,4%
—
11,3%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Teradyne, Inc.TER
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý192,45 US$Report-date price345,49 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư73 / 100
Lam Research CorporationLRCX
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý160,48 US$Report-date price307,65 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư69 / 100
KLA CorporationKLAC
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý109,19 US$Report-date price185,6 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư67 / 100
Teradyne, Inc.TER
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý192,45 US$Report-date price345,49 US$
Teradyne, Inc. (TER) trades at 30.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.2x. Its EV/EBITDA of 34.8x compares with a peer median of 34.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, Applied Materials Inc. and Keysight Technologies Inc., as of 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Industry capital expenditure represents 4.1% of revenue with a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 2.0x. Teradyne's FY2025 capex of $224,009,000 against depreciation of $127,981,000 generated a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 1.75x, confirming active investment phase manufacturing expansion for automated test platforms. In the first half of 2026, capex remained elevated at $155,439,000.6
Chu kỳ tăng giá
The bull cycle is propelled by structural packaging complexity in artificial intelligence silicon, multi-die chiplets, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which significantly lengthens test times and raises test equipment spending from 4% of semiconductor capex in 2023 to 8% in 2026. As foundry advanced packaging lines ramp up and memory customers add test cells into 2027, automated test equipment TAM expands toward management's long-term target of $20 billion by the end of the decade.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
The bear cycle emerges when semiconductor capital expenditure buildouts in high-performance compute and HBM reach capacity saturation, prompting hyperscalers and chipmakers to enter an order digestion phase. Management has warned that test intensity as a percentage of semiconductor capex could mean-revert from 8% in 2026 back to 6%-7% in 2027. A simultaneous reduction in wafer equipment spending and test intensity would cause back-end automated test equipment bookings to contract sharply, compressing margins toward historical trough levels.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
Escalating Test Complexity in AI Compute and Advanced Packaging
positive
Advanced multi-die chiplets, CoWoS integration, and HBM stacking exponentially increase test vectors and insertion steps, expanding test spend from 4% of semiconductor capex to 8% in 2026.
Commercialization of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) and Silicon Photonics
positive
The migration toward optical interconnects in AI data centers establishes an incremental co-packaged optics test equipment market of $300M to $700M by 2028 where Teradyne is an early test partner.
Định vị
Teradyne occupies a defensible duopoly position in back-end automated test alongside Advantest, commanding strong share in SoC and ARM server compute test. While front-end wafer fabrication equipment peers (AMAT, LRCX, KLAC) dominate fab tools, Teradyne captures critical value at wafer sort and final package test. However, company positioning is constrained by customer dual-sourcing initiatives in compute and fierce pricing contestation in memory test.4
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
0%
Under a Sell rating with shares trading at $345.49 versus Fair value of $192.45 (representing -44.3% implied return), zero long allocation is warranted. Capital should be preserved or redeployed into assets offering an appropriate margin of safety.
Rủi ro
Risk management mandates strict capital preservation given the 79.5% premium to Fair value. Teradyne's high raw beta of 1.7944 signals substantial drawdown vulnerability during market corrections. Portfolio managers should avoid call option writing that entails delivery obligations and eliminate equity long exposure.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$192.45
Initiate exploratory monitoring position
Represents an approximate 20% discount to house Fair value of $192.45, establishing an initial margin of safety against cyclical downcycle risks.
Below $192.45
Evaluate core position accumulation
Đợt thoát lệnh
Mức
Hành động
$345.49
Liquidate existing long positions immediately
$245.85
Exit residual exposure on speculative momentum bounces
While consensus models FY2026 revenue growth of 61.2%, reverse DCF indicates that the market currently discounts an implausible 33.29% 10-year earnings CAGR, leaving growth investors vulnerable to sharp multiple contraction on any guidance moderation.1
Income / Quality Compounder
Avoid
The dividend yield on the annualized $0.52 payout provides negligible downside protection against cyclical volatility, while high beta of 1.7944 introduces unacceptable capital risk.2
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Bán
We assign a Sell rating to Teradyne, Inc. (TER) with a Fair value of $192.45 per share, compared to the analysis price of $345.49, implying a -44.3% return and reflecting a 79.5% price premium to fair value. While operational momentum in semiconductor test and advanced packaging is strong, the current share price reflects peak-cycle multiple expansion and unsustainable growth expectations.3
Investors holding TER shares should capitalize on current elevated market pricing to liquidate positions. Even under optimistic operating projections where operating margins reach 29.5% and FY2027 revenue expands to $6,264M, fundamental intrinsic valuation does not support a forward P/E multiple of 30.67x.
§15Your notes
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Operating Margin Compression from R&D Burden and Price Competition
Management guided Q3 non-GAAP operating margin between 28% and 30%, and the house models operating margins reaching 29.5% to 30.0% through FY2030, compared to FY2025 operating margin of 20.38% on operating income of $650,051,000 and revenue of $3,190,024,000. If aggressive pricing from Advantest or increased R&D lowers operating margins below 26.5% over the next 18 months, fair value declines by 15.5%.4,6
FV impact
0%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 18 months
Cost of Capital Expansion Driven by High Cyclical Beta
The house valuation models utilize a computed moderate cost of equity of 11.68%, whereas Teradyne's high raw beta of 1.7944 generates a strict cost of equity of 12.69%. If macroeconomic turbulence or heightened semiconductor cycle volatility induces the market to discount cash flows at strict Ke exceeding 12.68% over the next 12 months, the discount rate rises by over 100 basis points, reducing fair value by 12.5%.2
FV impact
-5.4%
Cost of capital 1 point higher
Trigger
Within 12 months
Test Intensity Mean Reversion Across 5-Year Horizon
Management explicitly noted that test equipment spending as a percentage of semiconductor capex could mean-revert from 8% in 2026 back to 6%-7% in 2027. If test equipment spending normalizes and 5-year revenue growth slows below 16% annualized across a 24-month horizon, earnings power diminishes and fair value contracts by 18.2%.4
FV impact
-2%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Hiện tạiElevated relative to historical baseline levels due to multi-die and advanced packaging complexity.
Vì sao quan trọng
Test intensity reflects test equipment spending relative to total wafer fab equipment capex. When test intensity expands due to complex chiplet architectures, revenue outgrows broader capital equipment; a reversion toward historical levels compresses total addressable market expansion.
Hiện tạiExpanding toward target ranges guided by management following recent cyclical trough levels.
Vì sao quan trọng
Operating margin demonstrates operational leverage over manufacturing and engineering overhead. Sustained expansion confirms pricing power and favorable product mix, whereas margin compression indicates price competition or unabsorbed fixed research and development expense.
04
Chỉ số:
Hyperscaler Dual-Vendor Qualification in Compute Test
Hiện tạiHyperscalers actively evaluating dual-vendor sourcing frameworks to mitigate single-supplier risk.
Vì sao quan trọng
Major cloud hyperscalers qualify secondary test equipment vendors to alleviate single-supplier dependency. Increased qualification of competing platforms erodes market share in custom server silicon test cells, capping long-term earnings acceleration.
05
Chỉ số:
Advanced Packaging and CoWoS Substrate Availability
Hiện tạiSubstrate and memory packaging constraints continue to dictate customer tool installation schedules.
Vì sao quan trọng
Supply bottlenecks in advanced packaging substrates, high-bandwidth memory modules, and foundry packaging lines govern the rate at which finished silicon reaches test sockets. Easing constraints accelerates tester installations, while persistent shortages defer tester revenue into subsequent quarters.
As manufacturing buildouts for advanced packaging test cells mature, capex intensity will decline toward 4.5% of revenue, accelerating free cash flow conversion toward 85% of net income over the 5-year forecast horizon.
Teradyne trades at a forward P/E of 30.67x versus peer multiples of 22.17x for LRCX and 21.90x for AMAT, while reverse DCF reveals an implied 10-year earnings growth rate of 33.29%.
Current equity pricing factors in sustained peak-cycle expansion and zero digestion risk, leaving valuation severely disconnected from historical semiconductor equipment cycle norms.
Applied Materials Inc.AMAT
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý312,07 US$Report-date price454,71 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNone
Bảng điểm đầu tư63 / 100
Keysight Technologies Inc.KEYS
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý215,39 US$Report-date price386,43 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư68 / 100
Biên
TER
Teradyne, Inc.
$54.0B
30.7x
12.1x
34.8x
36.5%
—
LRCX
Lam Research Corporation
$326.4B
22.2x
14.0x
38.0x
65.1%
37.4%
KLAC
KLA Corporation
$213.3B
24.2x
15.7x
35.1x
87.5%
42.5%
AMAT
Applied Materials Inc.
$321.4B
21.9x
10.4x
31.5x
41.1%
33.7%
KEYS
Keysight Technologies Inc.
$58.1B
24.5x
8.8x
33.6x
20.9%
25.7%
Hyperscaler Dual-Vendor Qualification Strategies
negative
Cloud hyperscalers and fabless chipmakers are actively qualifying secondary automated test equipment vendors to eliminate single-source supply chain bottlenecks.
Operating margin falling below the guided quarterly target range
