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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
VRSK — frequently asked questions
Is Verisk Analytics Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-07, VRSK screens modestly overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 169 USD versus our fair value of 152 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 171 USD. That implies roughly 9.7% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07, gives VRSK a fair value of 152 USD and a potential value of 171 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Verisk Analytics Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy VRSK now?
Our latest published rating for VRSK, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Reduce. Verisk Analytics Inc. screens modestly overvalued at the analysis-date price of 169 USD versus fair value of 152 USD; potential value is 171 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for VRSK?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-07 documents Verisk Analytics Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is VRSK's rating?
Our latest published rating for VRSK, analyzed 2026-10-07, is Reduce, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 152 USD, the potential value of 171 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (169 USD).
Báo cáo này chưa được dịch. Hãy làm mới sau vài phút khi hàng đợi dịch xử lý xong.
§1 Tóm tắt điều hànhEN
Câu trả lời trong 30 giâyReduce
Giá so với giá trị
Giá
$168.68
Giá trị hợp lý
$152.32
Giá trị tiềm năng
$170.57
Tính đến
2026-10-07
Vì sao luận điểm có thể đúng
Verisk's biggest opportunity lies in the rapid adoption of automated underwriting and generative AI claims processing across property and casualty insurers.
Điều gì sẽ thay đổi quan điểm của chúng tôi
Mergers among top-50 property and casualty insurance carriers lead to enterprise license consolidation and pushback against annual contract price escalators.
We assign a Reduce rating to Verisk Analytics Inc., as the share price of $168.68 on the analysis date trades at a 10.7% premium over our Fair value of $152.32, implying an unfavorable negative 9.7% return.4
Our rating for Verisk Analytics Inc. is Reduce. For an investor, this recommendation indicates that capital is better preserved by trimming existing holdings or waiting for a more attractive entry price. While Verisk operates a high-quality, entrenched business, current market pricing already reflects several years of steady operational execution, leaving investors exposed to valuation multiple contraction without an adequate margin of safety.
The report was prepared at a price of $168.68 on October 7, 2026. This price stands 10.7% above our Fair value of $152.32, which results in an implied return of negative 9.7%. Although Verisk's Potential value reaches $170.57 under optimistic operating assumptions, the October 7, 2026 share price of $168.68 already sits within 1.1% of that ceiling, leaving minimal cushion relative to the house Fair value benchmark.4
The primary risk that would further impair the investment thesis is consolidation among tier-one property and casualty insurance carriers coupled with client in-sourcing of claims analytics. If carrier mergers lead to license rationalization and pushback against annual contract fee increases, organic subscription revenue growth would drop below 3.0% and operating margins would compress below 40.5%. An investor would observe this risk unfolding through deceleration in subscription revenue growth across consecutive quarters and shrinking customer revenue retention among the top fifty carriers.6,7
The primary fundamental driver that can support per-share equity value is Verisk's proprietary data network and capital-light software model. Because incremental underwriting inquiries and automated claims transactions require near-zero additional data gathering costs, operating margins can expand from 43.74% toward 44.5% on mid-single-digit sales growth. Combined with capital expenditures under 8% of revenue ($244.1M in FY2025), the business converts substantial cash into disciplined share repurchases. If automated workflow adoption accelerates, equity value could approach Potential value of $170.57, though this path remains strictly secondary to our central Fair value of $152.32.4,5,6
Verisk aggregates multi-carrier loss history and standard ISO advisory loss cost filings that cannot be duplicated by any individual insurer, sustaining renewal rates above 95% across major P&C carriers.7
Delivering analytics and catastrophe models incurs near-zero marginal cost, driving GAAP operating margins of 43.74% in FY2025 that far exceed broader industry levels of 12.30%.6
We rate Verisk Analytics Reduce because the stock trades at $168.68 on the analysis date, representing a 10.7% premium over our Fair value of $152.32 and offering an unfavorable negative 9.7% implied return despite exceptional business quality.4
Tổng quan công ty
Verisk Analytics Inc. provides data analytics, statistical underwriting rules, and risk management solutions primarily serving the property and casualty insurance industry in the United States and internationally. The company delivers industry-standard insurance programs that help insurers define coverage terms, write policies, and calculate prospective loss costs across 32 distinct lines of insurance. Its integrated offerings combine standardized policy language, rating rules, and workflow optimization tools that embed directly into carrier underwriting systems.
The company also specializes in probabilistic catastrophe modeling, helping insurers, reinsurers, financial institutions, and government agencies evaluate financial exposure to natural and man-made disasters. Its risk models span extreme weather events—including hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires, and floods—across more than 120 countries and territories, alongside casualty, terrorism, and crop models in markets including the United States, Canada, India, and China.
§2 Kịch bản tiêu cựcEN
A comprehensive downside scenario models the compounding impact of macro stagnation and carrier consolidation across the property and casualty sector. If annual subscription revenue growth decelerates to 3.0-4.0%, operating margins contract toward 41.5% under SG&A compliance inflation, and the forward earnings terminal multiple contracts from 20.0x toward the peer median of 16.0x, equity value faces significant pressure. Additionally, refinancing near-term debt obligations of $1,511.2M out of $4,617.1M total debt at market debt yields of 5.96% would expand interest expense and divert cash from share repurchases, reducing net per-share compounding accretion.
Insurer consolidation leads to software license consolidation and lower subscription growth
Operating margin compression from elevated compliance costs and pricing resistance
Higher effective interest rates on maturing debt reducing capital available for share repurchases
The downside path contemplates an environment where property and casualty insurer underwriting losses prompt carrier consolidation, leading to enterprise license rationalization and resistance against annual contract price escalators. Higher borrowing costs on refinancing maturing debt obligations increase interest burdens, while regulatory scrutiny around algorithmic underwriting inflates compliance expenses, compressing operating margins and prompting valuation multiple contraction toward peer medians.
Các cách luận điểm này có thể đổ vỡ
Valuation Multiple Compression Toward Peer Median on Growth Deceleration
Verisk currently trades at a forward P/E of 20.08x, commanding a premium over peers CPRT (15.21x), DOV (16.21x), and XYL (16.35x). If growth slows toward 3.5%, multiple contraction toward the peer median of 16.28x drives a -20.0% reduction in equity fair value.3,4
FV impact
-4.2%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Tín hiệu cảnh báo sớm cần theo dõi
Năm diễn biến có thể làm suy yếu luận điểm đầu tư của chúng tôi.
Indicates customer pushback against annual contract fee escalators or loss of data consortium pricing leverage, necessitating an immediate downward revision to explicit revenue growth assumptions.
Hiện tại:6.63% YoY (FY2025 revenue of $3,072.7M vs $2,881.7M in FY2024)
Cảnh báo nếu
§3 Lợi thế cạnh tranhEN
Wide
Verisk Analytics commands an exceptional Wide economic moat rooted in insurmountable switching costs, irreplaceable consortium data assets, and two-sided network effects spanning the US property and casualty insurance landscape. Originating as the non-profit Insurance Services Office (ISO), Verisk compiles, verifies, and standardizes multi-decade loss histories from hundreds of contributing insurers, producing the authoritative actuarial loss costs and standardized policy forms utilized by state insurance commissioners to evaluate rate adequacy and solvency. Because an individual insurance company possesses only its own historical underwriting sample, no single carrier can replicate Verisk's industry-wide actuarial baseline, establishing an entrenched data monopoly.
These proprietary data repositories are integrated directly into carrier core policy administration, rating engines, and claims workflows, generating renewal rates consistently exceeding 95%. Switching away from Verisk's underwriting forms or advisory rate filings would entail massive operational disruption, multi-million-dollar re-platforming investments, and severe regulatory filing delays across state insurance departments. Consequently, customer diversification is strong: no single customer accounts for more than approximately 3% of revenues, while the top 50 carriers account for 42% of revenue, insulating Verisk from enterprise hold-up risk.
Verisk's software delivery economics translate this data advantage into superior structural margins. Once core data sets and statistical models are compiled, delivering risk scoring, catastrophe analytics, or automated claims validation to an incremental insurer incurs negligible marginal cost. This dynamic allowed Verisk to achieve a GAAP operating margin of 43.74% in FY2025 ($1,343.9M on $3,072.7M revenue,), dwarfing the broader service industry average operating margin of 12.30% and peer CPRT at 32.01%. Modest capital spending of $244.1M (7.94% of revenue) converts high operating margins into extraordinary free cash flow of $1,191.9M, reinforcing durable economic profit generation over the extended multi-stage fade horizon.
Lợi nhuận kinh tế
Verisk generates substantial economic profits, earning a return on invested capital of 25.60% that provides an economic spread of +1,784 bps above its computed WACC of 7.76% and +1,718 bps above its moderate cost of equity of 8.42%. This superior economic return is underpinned by FY2025 operating income of $1,343.9M on $3,072.7M in revenue, producing a 43.74% operating margin,. High capital efficiency with capital expenditures at 7.94% of revenue ($244.1M in FY2025) ensures that incremental revenue converts almost entirely into economic value.2,6
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01High Switching Costs from Deep Regulatory and Core Workflow Integration — Verisk's standard ISO advisory loss cost filings and policy forms are deeply integrated into carrier regulatory filings and policy administration systems across the US, generating renewal rates exceeding 95%. Customer concentration is low, with no single customer accounting for more than approximately 3% of revenues for FY2023-FY2025, while the top 50 customers represent 42% of revenue, creating prohibitive operational friction to switching providers.Wide
02Irreplaceable Proprietary Data Consortium Assets — Through its historical ISO foundation, Verisk aggregates loss records, policy forms, and claims history from virtually all major US property and casualty insurers. Individual carriers cannot replicate this multi-decade statistical base required by state regulators, sustaining resilient reflected in FY2025 of $3,072.7M and of $2,068.3M.
Mối đe dọa đã biết với lợi thế cạnh tranh
Mối đe dọa
Mức độ
Mốc thời gian
Giảm thiểu
P&C Carrier Consolidation Leading to Enterprise License Rationalization and Pricing Pressure
medium
12-24 months
Verisk's industry-wide consortium pool incorporates multi-carrier loss history that no single insurer or merged entity can replicate internally; top 50 customer concentration has diversified to 42% with no single carrier exceeding 3% of revenues.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($152.32). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $1.0B after modeled reinvestment of $70.3M, with terminal value at 82.7% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Steady mid-single-digit revenue growth across domestic property and casualty lines
Stable operating margins supported by high customer renewal rates and disciplined expense controls
Consistent free cash flow conversion and regular capital returns via buybacks and dividends
The modal path reflects steady compounding anchored by Verisk's irreplaceable consortium data network and standard advisory loss filings. Core subscription revenues expand at a consistent mid-single-digit rate, operating margins remain stable near historical levels, and capital-light operations support steady share repurchases alongside dividend payments. This path yields Fair value of $152.32 with an estimated probability of 60.0% and an implied return of -9.7% against $168.68.
Upgrade the rating; Verify whether outperformance reflects sustainable core subscription acceleration or non-recurring transactional volume, and re-examine capital return run-rates before adjusting portfolio exposure.
Kích hoạt: Subscription revenue growth accelerating above historical trend accompanied by operating margin expansion and higher contract renewal rates
If subscription revenue growth accelerates driven by higher carrier uptake of automated claims solutions and expanded catastrophe telemetry, operating leverage would expand margins toward Potential value $170.57, closing the negative return gap from $168.68.
Đúng kỳ vọng
Maintain Reduce; Maintain disciplined exposure controls, monitor carrier consolidation commentary, and review capital allocation priorities across scheduled debt maturities.
Kích hoạt: Revenue and diluted earnings tracking in line with consensus projections alongside steady operating margins
When performance tracks the expected trajectory, the premium of $168.68 above Fair value $152.32 persists, keeping implied return at -9.7% and validating the current rating stance.
Hụt
Downgrade the rating; Review stop-loss levels, trim remaining allocations, and evaluate whether pricing power erosion represents a permanent impairment to terminal economics.
A deceleration in core subscription revenue accompanied by margin compression would confirm carrier pricing resistance or license consolidation, widening the downside from $168.68 relative to Fair value $152.32.
Chất lượng lợi nhuận
Earnings quality is exceptionally strong, characterized by operating cash flows that substantially exceed reported GAAP net income due to non-cash depreciation and low working capital friction. Revenue is overwhelmingly composed of recurring multi-year subscription agreements embedded in regulatory workflows, resulting in minimal receivables volatility and highly predictable margin conversion.
Xu hướng dự báo
Consensus estimate revisions following the latest quarterly earnings release have remained steady across annual and quarterly horizons. The post-event cohort confirms stable subscription demand, disciplined pricing retention, and consistent operating cost execution across FY2026 and FY2027 without material estimate revisions.
Verisk exhibits top-tier cash generation quality. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $1,436.0M, converting at 158.1% of GAAP net income ($908.3M). Capital expenditures were modest at $244.1M (7.94% of revenue), with roughly 70% representing capitalized software development. Free cash flow totaled $1,191.9M (131.2% of net income). Stock-based compensation was limited to $54.2M, ensuring high cash earnings purity and minimal share dilution.5,6
Phân bổ vốn
Verisk demonstrates disciplined, shareholder-friendly capital allocation centered on returning substantial via share repurchases and dividends. In FY2025, the company deployed $624.0M to share buybacks and paid $251.1M in dividends, having previously executed $1,005.0M in buybacks in FY2024 and $2,762.3M in FY2023. These buybacks reduced from 140,082,773 diluted average in FY2025 to 131,021,840 as of October 2026. Liquidity remains solid with $2,178.2M in cash and , providing ample cushion against total debt of $4,617.1M and near-term maturities of $1,511.2M.
ROIC is stable and highly value-accretive at 25.60%, driven by mature software scalability and modest reinvestment rates. The company's capital-light data consortium generates superior unit economics that support consistent economic profit compounding across market cycles.
ROIC of 25.60% generates a substantial positive economic spread of +1,784 bps above the computed WACC of 7.76% and +1,718 bps above the moderate cost of equity of 8.42%, confirming exceptional economic profit generation.
Superior Free Cash Flow Conversion with Minimal Capital Intensity
Operating cash flow was $1,436.0M on of $908.3M in FY2025, generating $1,191.9M of after of $244.1M.
Doanh thu mới nhất3,1 T US$CAGR doanh thu +4,9%
Biên hoạt động43,7%10 kỳ tài chính
Dòng tiền tự do mới nhất1,2 T US$FY2025
Nợ ròng2,6 T US$FY2025
Phân tích báo cáo kết quả kinh doanhQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Doanh thu3,1 T US$Giá vốn doanh thu−1 T US$Lợi nhuận gộp2,1 T US$Chi phí hoạt động−724,4 Tr US$Lợi nhuận hoạt động1,3 T US$Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế−435,6 Tr US$Lợi nhuận ròng908,3 Tr US$
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Doanh thu
3.072.700.000 US$
Giá vốn doanh thu
1.004.400.000 US$
Lợi nhuận gộp
2.068.300.000 US$
Chi phí hoạt động
724.400.000 US$
Lợi nhuận hoạt động
1.343.900.000 US$
Các khoản ngoài hoạt động và thuế
-435.600.000 US$
Lợi nhuận ròng
908.300.000 US$
Tổng quan bảng cân đối kế toánCách tài sản đã báo cáo được nắm giữ và tài trợ trong kỳ đã chọn.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Cơ cấu tài sảnNguồn tài trợ
Tổng tài sản6,2 T US$Tiền mặt2,2 T US$Tài sản ngắn hạn2,8 T US$Tổng nợ phải trả5,9 T US$Nợ ngắn hạn2,3 T US$Vốn chủ sở hữu309,8 Tr US$
Dữ liệu phân tích bảng cân đối kế toán
Tổng tài sản
6.195.500.000 US$
Tiền mặt
2.178.200.000 US$
Tài sản ngắn hạn
2.765.400.000 US$
Tổng nợ phải trả
5.885.700.000 US$
Nợ ngắn hạn
2.300.300.000 US$
Vốn chủ sở hữu
309.800.000 US$
Cầu nối dòng tiềnDòng tiền từ hoạt động chuyển thành dòng tiền tự do như thế nào trong FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Đối chiếu dòng tiền hoạt động
Lợi nhuận ròng908,3 Tr US$Khấu hao và phân bổ+259,2 Tr US$Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu+54,2 Tr US$Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác+214,3 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động1,4 T US$
Đối chiếu tiền đầu kỳ đến cuối kỳ
Tiền đầu kỳ291,2 Tr US$Dòng tiền hoạt động+1,4 T US$Dòng tiền đầu tư−358,1 Tr US$Dòng tiền tài chính+795,2 Tr US$Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá+13,9 Tr US$Tiền cuối kỳ2,2 T US$
1,4 T US$ − 244,1 Tr US$Dòng tiền tự do 1,2 T US$
Dữ liệu cầu nối dòng tiền
Lợi nhuận ròng
908.300.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ hoạt động
1.436.000.000 US$
Khấu hao và phân bổ
259.200.000 US$
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
54.200.000 US$
Điều chỉnh hoạt động khác
214.300.000 US$
Dòng tiền hoạt động
1.436.000.000 US$
Tiền sẵn có
2.536.300.000 US$
Tiền đầu kỳ
291.200.000 US$
Dòng tiền vào từ tài chính
795.200.000 US$
Ảnh hưởng tỷ giá
13.900.000 US$
Dòng tiền ra từ đầu tư
358.100.000 US$
Capex
244.100.000 US$
Hoạt động đầu tư khác
114.000.000 US$
Tiền cuối kỳ
2.178.200.000 US$
Dòng tiền đầu tư
-358.100.000 US$
Dòng tiền tài chính
795.200.000 US$
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng trong tổng doanh thu của 2025-12-31.
3,1 T US$Tổng doanh thu
Doanh thu theo khu vựcTỷ trọng
United States2,5 T US$82,1%+5,7% so với cùng kỳ
Khác300,3 Tr US$9,8%+6,8% so với cùng kỳ
United Kingdom250,1 Tr US$8,1%+16,7% so với cùng kỳ
Nguồn: SEC EDGAR · Nộp ngày 2026-02-18 · SEC EDGAR
Dữ liệu cơ cấu doanh thu: Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu theo khu vực
Doanh thu
Tỷ trọng
so với cùng kỳ
United States
2,5 T US$
82,1%
5,7%
Other
300,3 Tr US$
9,8%
6,8%
United Kingdom
250,1 Tr US$
8,1%
16,7%
Doanh thu và lợi nhuậnQuy mô kinh doanh chuyển thành lợi nhuận báo cáo như thế nào.
Tiền mặt và nợThanh khoản sẵn có so với tổng dư nợ.
Tạo dòng tiềnDòng tiền hoạt động so với dòng tiền tự do.
Khả năng sinh lờiDiễn biến biên gộp, biên hoạt động và biên ròng.
Dữ liệu tài chính tại thời điểm được dùng trong phân tích ngày 2026-10-07.
Dữ liệu lịch sử tài chính
Kỳ
Doanh thu
EBITDA
Lợi nhuận ròng
Dòng tiền hoạt động
Dòng tiền tự do
Capex
Khấu hao và phân bổ
Thù lao bằng cổ phiếu
Mua lại cổ phiếu
Cổ tức đã trả
Phát hành nợ ròng
Dòng tiền đầu tư
Dòng tiền tài chính
Tiền đầu kỳ
Tiền cuối kỳ
Tiền mặt và đầu tư
Tổng nợ
Biên hoạt động
ROIC
WACC
Chênh lệch ROIC−WACC
2016-12-31
2 T US$
998,3 Tr US$
591,2 Tr US$
577,5 Tr US$
421 Tr US$
156,5 Tr US$
126,2 Tr US$
30 Tr US$
326,8 Tr US$
163,5 Tr US$
—
493,2 Tr US$
-1,1 T US$
—
135,1 Tr US$
138,5 Tr US$
2,3 T US$
38,5%
—
4,8%
—
2017-12-31
2,1 T US$
1 T US$
555,1 Tr US$
743,5 Tr US$
560 Tr US$
183,5 Tr US$
135,6 Tr US$
31,8 Tr US$
276,3 Tr US$
0 US$
—
-1,1 T US$
362,5 Tr US$
135,1 Tr US$
142,3 Tr US$
146,1 Tr US$
3 T US$
37,3%
—
4,7%
—
2018-12-31
2,4 T US$
1,1 T US$
598,7 Tr US$
934,4 Tr US$
703,4 Tr US$
231 Tr US$
165,3 Tr US$
38,5 Tr US$
438,6 Tr US$
0 US$
—
-265,4 Tr US$
-669,8 Tr US$
142,3 Tr US$
139,5 Tr US$
142,8 Tr US$
2,7 T US$
34,8%
—
5,2%
—
2019-12-31
2,6 T US$
1 T US$
449,9 Tr US$
956,3 Tr US$
739,5 Tr US$
216,8 Tr US$
185,7 Tr US$
42,7 Tr US$
300 Tr US$
163,5 Tr US$
—
-927,9 Tr US$
10,9 Tr US$
139,5 Tr US$
184,6 Tr US$
188,2 Tr US$
3,2 T US$
26,7%
—
4,5%
—
2020-12-31
2,3 T US$
1,3 T US$
712,7 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
821,4 Tr US$
246,8 Tr US$
192,2 Tr US$
47,6 Tr US$
348,8 Tr US$
175,8 Tr US$
—
-595,8 Tr US$
-445,2 Tr US$
184,6 Tr US$
218,8 Tr US$
222,9 Tr US$
3,2 T US$
42,1%
—
3,8%
—
2021-12-31
2,5 T US$
1,3 T US$
666,2 Tr US$
1,2 T US$
887,3 Tr US$
268,4 Tr US$
206,9 Tr US$
55,7 Tr US$
475 Tr US$
188,2 Tr US$
—
-592 Tr US$
-498,9 Tr US$
218,8 Tr US$
280,3 Tr US$
116,9 Tr US$
3,3 T US$
37,0%
—
4,4%
—
2022-12-31
2,5 T US$
1,7 T US$
953,9 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
784,3 Tr US$
274,7 Tr US$
197,1 Tr US$
56,5 Tr US$
1,7 T US$
195,2 Tr US$
430 Tr US$
301,4 Tr US$
-1,3 T US$
280,3 Tr US$
292,7 Tr US$
116,5 Tr US$
3,7 T US$
56,3%
—
6,9%
—
2023-12-31
2,7 T US$
1,4 T US$
614,6 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
830,7 Tr US$
230 Tr US$
206,8 Tr US$
54 Tr US$
2,8 T US$
196,8 Tr US$
-894,8 Tr US$
2,7 T US$
-3,8 T US$
292,7 Tr US$
302,7 Tr US$
303,9 Tr US$
2,9 T US$
42,2%
—
7,0%
—
2024-12-31
2,9 T US$
1,7 T US$
958,2 Tr US$
1,1 T US$
920,1 Tr US$
223,9 Tr US$
233,6 Tr US$
47,9 Tr US$
1 T US$
221,3 Tr US$
590,2 Tr US$
-124,8 Tr US$
-1 T US$
302,7 Tr US$
291,2 Tr US$
292,4 Tr US$
3,1 T US$
43,5%
—
7,7%
—
2025-12-31
3,1 T US$
1,7 T US$
908,3 Tr US$
1,4 T US$
1,2 T US$
244,1 Tr US$
259,2 Tr US$
54,2 Tr US$
624 Tr US$
251,1 Tr US$
1,7 T US$
-358,1 Tr US$
795,2 Tr US$
291,2 Tr US$
2,2 T US$
2,2 T US$
4,8 T US$
43,7%
—
7,0%
—
§9 So sánh định giá với các doanh nghiệp cùng ngành
Giá trị hợp lýReport-date price
Verisk Analytics Inc.VRSK
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý152,32 US$Report-date price168,68 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư64 / 100
Xylem Inc.XYL
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý90,73 US$Report-date price102,53 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư62 / 100
Copart, Inc.CPRT
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý26,58 US$Report-date price27,22 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếWide
Bảng điểm đầu tư71 / 100
Verisk Analytics Inc.VRSK
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý152,32 US$Report-date price168,68 US$
Verisk Analytics Inc. (VRSK) trades at 20.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 16.9x compares with a peer median of 13.8x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Xylem Inc., Copart Inc., Dover Corporation and Ingersoll Rand Inc., as of 2026-10-07.
§10 Ngành và chu kỳEN
Pha chu kỳ
Expansion
Damodaran Business & Consumer Services industry benchmarks indicate a low capital intensity of 3.4% capex-to-revenue and 0.65 capex-to-depreciation, while Verisk's capital expenditures represent 7.94% of revenue ($244.1M on $3,072.7M revenue in FY2025,). Because capacity, supply, and lead-time metrics are not reported for specialized insurance data consortiums, the industry cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited.6
Chu kỳ tăng giá
During an insurance hard market or expansionary underwriting cycle, property and casualty carriers deploy surplus capital toward modernizing core underwriting systems, automating claims workflows, and licensing advanced catastrophe risk models. Premium rate increases across primary insurance lines expand carrier fee tolerance, driving cross-selling of predictive telemetry, satellite property data, and fraud detection modules at high incremental margins.
Chu kỳ giảm giá
A cyclical downturn in property and casualty commercial lines, severe catastrophe loss years, or prolonged carrier underwriting losses can prompt insurers to curtail external IT budgets, freeze non-essential software rollouts, and push back against annual price increases. Furthermore, wave-driven carrier consolidation could reduce the total number of licensed user seats and enhance client bargaining power against non-statutory data add-ons.
Xu hướng dài hạn
Xu hướng
Tác động
Ghi chú
P&C Insurance Digital Workflow Automation and Cloud Migration
positive
Carriers are automating underwriting and claims processing via straight-through digital workflows, driving structural demand for Verisk's real-time property telemetry, pre-fill data solutions, and automated risk scoring.
Catastrophe Telemetry and Advanced Climate Risk Modeling Adoption
positive
Accelerating climate volatility and complex secondary peril losses (wildfires, convective storms, severe flooding) compel carriers to seek sophisticated predictive modeling and continuous loss recalibration.
Định vị
Verisk is uniquely positioned as the indispensable core data utility for the US property and casualty insurance market. While cyclically exposed industrial peers (CPRT, DOV, IR, XYL) navigate manufacturing or salvage volume fluctuations, Verisk's revenues are primarily recurring subscriptions driven by statutory regulatory filing requirements and mandatory actuarial loss cost tables. This positioning shields Verisk from traditional industrial inventory and capacity cycles.
§11 Quản lý vị thếEN
Quy mô vị thế
0-1%
Verisk trades at $168.68, representing a 10.7% premium over the house Fair value of $152.32 (-9.7% implied return). While business quality and the wide economic moat are exceptional, current market valuation leaves no margin of safety, dictating an underweight or reduced portfolio allocation under the house reduce rating.4
Rủi ro
Risk management under the reduce rating prioritizes capital preservation against valuation multiple compression. While Verisk's operating franchise is protected by insurmountable data switching costs and zero-marginal-cost software economics, the stock trades at a premium forward multiple (20.08x) compared to broader peers CPRT (15.21x), DOV (16.21x), and XYL (16.35x). Portfolio managers holding existing long positions should implement disciplined stop-loss and trailing-stop controls, monitoring quarterly subscription revenue growth and debt refinancing costs closely.
Đợt vào lệnh
Mức
Hành động
Lý do
$152.32 (House Fair Value Midpoint)
Hold / Re-evaluate
At Fair value of $152.32, valuation risk neutralizes, though an explicit margin of safety is not yet established.
$137.00 - $140.00 (10% Margin of Safety Below Fair Value)
Verisk trades at a share price of $168.68 on October 7, 2026, representing a 10.7% premium over our Fair value of $152.32 and offering an implied return of negative 9.7%. With no margin of safety and a forward P/E of 20.08x exceeding industrial peers (peer median 16.28x), value investors should avoid initiating positions until market prices trade below intrinsic value.3,4
Quality Compounder Investor
Hold
Verisk commands a premier Wide economic moat with ROIC of 25.60% exceeding its WACC of 7.76% by +1,784 bps. Free cash flow conversion of 131.2% in FY2025 ($1,191.9M) supports steady share buybacks. Long-term compounders may hold core positions given high customer renewal rates, but new capital allocation should be paused.2,5,6
Tactical / Institutional Investor
Avoid
Trading within 1.1% of our Potential value of $170.57 leaves minimal upside, while upcoming debt refinancing of $1,511.2M at prevailing debt yields of 5.96% threatens to elevate interest expenses. Tactical managers should trim exposure to redeploy capital into higher-yielding opportunities.2,4
§14 Khuyến nghị cuối cùngEN
Hành động
Giảm
We recommend a Reduce action on Verisk Analytics. At the October 7, 2026 share price of $168.68, shares trade at a 10.7% premium over our Fair value of $152.32, generating an implied return of negative 9.7%. Although the business possesses an exceptional Wide economic moat supported by its irreplaceable insurance data consortium, prevailing valuation leaves investors with an unfavorable risk-reward profile.4
While Verisk delivers enviable cash conversion—generating $1,191.9M of free cash flow in FY2025 on $908.3M of net income —the stock's forward P/E multiple of 20.08x sits well above peer medians. Investors should trim exposure and await a pullback toward Fair value before deploying fresh capital.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Analyst consensusData as of 2026-10-07 · Published 2026-10-07 · Provider-adjusted · cited for 2 figuresCited in Kịch bản tiêu cực
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
P&C Carrier Consolidation and Claims Analytics In-Sourcing Squeeze
The top 50 insurance customers account for 42% of revenue. Mergers among tier-1 carriers could lead to software license consolidation, in-sourcing of claims analytics, and pushback against annual ISO fee escalators, compressing operating margin by >300 bps below the FY2025 level of 43.74% to below 40.5%.6,7
FV impact
-1.7%
Operating margin 3 points lower throughout
Trigger
Within 18 months
Refinancing Cliff and Higher Cost of Capital Shock
Verisk holds $4,617.1M in total debt with $1,511.2M maturing in the near term against current cash of $2,178.2M. With pre-tax cost of debt at 5.96% and risk-free rate at 5.31%, refinancing at elevated credit spreads coupled with rising equity risk premium lifts discount rates by +200 bps over computed WACC of 7.76%.2,4,6
Indicates working capital deterioration, capitalized software build-up, or collection delays from consolidating carriers, reducing capital available for share buybacks.
Points to carrier consolidation leading to license cancellations and contract renegotiations in core underwriting modules.
Hiện tại:42.0% in FY2025
Cảnh báo nếu< 38.0% accompanied by annual contract value churn > 5.0%
05
Weighted average pre-tax cost of debt on new issuances
Refinancing of $1,511.2M in near-term maturities against $4,617.1M total debt at elevated yields would increase annual interest expense, curtailing discretionary share buybacks.
03Two-Sided Data Network Effects and Software Scale Advantage — As additional carriers contribute policy and claims data to Verisk's repository, statistical predictive models become more robust for all participants, expanding software adoption across underwriting and claims automation. The zero-marginal-cost software delivery structure drives FY2025 operating margins of 43.74%, substantially exceeding the Damodaran Business & Consumer Services industry benchmark of 12.30%.Wide
Regulatory Scrutiny on Underwriting Data Aggregation and Algorithmic Rating Standards
medium
2-3 years
Verisk's core actuarial database operates under formal ISO advisory loss cost filings and statutory frameworks approved by state insurance regulators, functioning as a neutral regulatory benchmark rather than an unvetted commercial algorithm.6
Near-Term Debt Refinancing Pressure at Higher Prevailing Interest Rates
low
12-18 months
Substantial liquid cash reserves of $2,178.2M and robust annual free cash flow of $1,191.9M provide ample self-funding capability to address debt maturities without forced dilutive capital raises.5,6
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (33,77 US$) plus discounted terminal value (162 US$) minus signed per current share (19,80 US$) equals the 176 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
In the upside path, accelerated carrier migration to automated catastrophe modeling, real-time property telemetry, and generative artificial intelligence claims processing expands organic subscription growth. Operating leverage lifts operating margins as fixed consortium data costs are amortized over larger software volumes, while robust free cash flow fuels net share retirement. Under this path, the projected valuation reaches $170.57 with an estimated probability of 15.0% and an implied return of 1.1% relative to $168.68.
Operating income of $1,343.9M on $3,072.7M revenue yielded a 43.74% operating margin in FY2025,, compared to the Damodaran industry average of 12.30% and peer CPRT at 32.01%.
Scalable data infrastructure delivers significant operating leverage, protecting profitability through economic downturns.
Disciplined Share Count Shrinkage Enhances Per-Share Value
Actual shares outstanding dropped to 131,021,840 as of October 2026 from 140,082,773 diluted average shares in FY2025, representing a 6.47% share count reduction.
Accretive buybacks drive diluted EPS compounding approximately 200 bps faster than net income growth.
Dover CorporationDOV
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý162,66 US$Report-date price190,17 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư64 / 100
Ingersoll Rand Inc.IR
Giá / giá trị hợp lý
Giá trị hợp lý61,46 US$Report-date price77,78 US$
Ngày đánh giá
Hào kinh tếNarrow
Bảng điểm đầu tư61 / 100
Biên
VRSK
Verisk Analytics Inc.
$22.1B
20.1x
7.0x
16.9x
437.9%
—
XYL
Xylem Inc.
$23.8B
16.4x
2.6x
13.4x
9.2%
17.0%
CPRT
Copart Inc.
$24.7B
15.2x
5.3x
11.0x
16.2%
32.0%
DOV
Dover Corporation
$25.4B
16.2x
3.0x
14.3x
14.9%
18.7%
IR
Ingersoll Rand Inc.
$30.1B
19.8x
3.8x
17.1x
9.5%
16.9%
Tier-1 Insurer Industry Consolidation and Vendor Rationalization
neutral
Mergers among large insurers increase bargaining power, though Verisk's diversification (top 50 customers at 42% of revenue, no single client > 3%) mitigates single-firm hold-up risk.
Provides an adequate margin of safety below Fair value of $152.32, offering favorable risk-adjusted expected return.
Aggressive Buy Consideration
Represents the conservative lower bound of intrinsic valuation, offering high asymmetry and downside protection.
