Composite fair value
The weighted blend of all valuation methods used for a ticker. Weights vary by archetype — financials lean on residual income; cyclicals on through-cycle multiples.
The composite is the weighted blend of all valuation methods we run for a ticker, producing a single fair-value range from four to six independent lenses. Weights are archetype-specific: hyper-growth names lean on forward-earnings models with suppressed terminal multiples; mature compounders blend DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF roughly equally; financials lean on residual income and price-to-tangible-book; cyclicals use through-cycle multiples; capital-intensive industrials lean on EV/EBITDA after maintenance capex. The composite is reported as a low/midpoint/high range, with the spread driven by both intra-method dispersion (different assumptions within the same model) and cross-method dispersion (different answers from different lenses). When cross-method dispersion is wide, confidence drops and margin of safety widens. When the composite midpoint diverges from the consensus analyst price target by more than 30%, we run a consensus-divergence diagnostic — but we do not auto-revise toward consensus, which would defeat the purpose of an independent framework.