FTNT trades against a final fair-value range of $47.99-$79.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $48.0, high $79.5, with mid-point at $64.0.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$64
Margin of safety
-78.3%
Confidence
68/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$114.07Price
Low $47.99
Mid $63.99
High $79.53
FTNT trades against a final fair-value range of $47.99-$79.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Proprietary ASIC hardware providing superior
Proprietary ASIC hardware providing superior performance-to-cost ratios.
High switching costs for integrated
High switching costs for integrated network-security deployments.
Bull thesis
The market is erroneously pricing a software-only future onto a capital-heavy hardware business model.
Free cash flow for FTNT (FTNT) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.
Operating cash flow is the primary signal: when OCF is negative or significantly below net income, the cash-flow subsection flags the divergence and traces the cause to working-capital, deferred-revenue, or earnings-quality effects.
Capital expenditure is reported as a percentage of revenue alongside the absolute number. Heavy investment phases are separated from harvesting phases so reinvestment intent is legible.
The financing activity row tracks dividends paid, share repurchases, and net debt issuance. Together with FCF, it answers whether buybacks and dividends are funded organically or by issuing debt.
FAQ
FTNT — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, FTNT looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $114 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $64.0 (range $48.0–$79.5), which implies roughly 43.9% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for FTNT is $48.0–$79.5, with a midpoint of $64.0. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for FTNT's archetype.
Our current rating for FTNT is Sell with a confidence score of 68/100. FTNT is rated Sell at $114.07 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $63.99, implying -43.90% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 68/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for FTNT are: SASE Commoditization; Margin Contraction; Refresh Cycle Freeze. The single biggest risk is Downside risks are highly asymmetric given the aggressive 25x terminal multiple on a slowing top-line.
Our current rating for FTNT is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 68/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($48.0–$79.5) versus the current price of $114.
FTNT is classified as a growth infrastructure stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for FTNT.