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The Coca-Cola Company is a quintessential mature compounder with unparalleled brand equity, a globally diversified distribution network, and immense pricing power. While secular unit volume growth for carbonated soft drinks is sluggish, consistent pricing execution and strategic portfolio expansion into non-carbonated beverages drive steady, high-margin cash flows. Fair value range: low $77.2, high $122, with mid-point at $99.5.
Stock analysis

KO The Coca-Cola Company fair value $99–$122

KO
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-08下次更新: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Consumer Staples
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股价
$78.33
▲ +21.13 (+26.98%)
公允价值
$99
$99–$122
评级
强力买入
confidence 88/100
上行空间
+27.0%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$84.54
buy below · 15%
市值
$337.0B
P/E fwd 22.5
英文原文ZH
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§1 执行摘要

  • Unparalleled wide moat supporting consistent ROIC (~18%).
  • Fair value midpoint of $99.46 implies nearly 27% upside.
  • Pricing power neutralizes near-term CSD volume sluggishness.
  • Weak OCF/NI conversion warrants monitoring but terminal stability is intact.
Fair value
$99
Margin of safety
+21.2%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$78.33Price
FV $99.46
High $121.75

The Coca-Cola Company is a quintessential mature compounder with unparalleled brand equity, a globally diversified distribution network, and immense pricing power. While secular unit volume growth for carbonated soft drinks is sluggish, consistent pricing execution and strategic portfolio expansion into non-carbonated beverages drive steady, high-margin cash flows.

  • Cycle upside
    Late-cycle pricing capture masks volume softness.

§2 看空情景

Secular volume declines accelerate beyond pricing power elasticity, combined with persistent FX headwinds that permanently compress international returns and the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate..

该论点可能失败的方式

Health Trend Acceleration

20%· Medium

Accelerated secular shifts away from carbonated soft drinks permanently compress volume growth.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
3-5 years

Persistent FX Headwinds

30%· Medium

Strong USD and emerging market volatility structurally erode translated earnings and returns.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
1-3 years

Input Cost Margin Squeeze

15%· Low

Unhedged agricultural and packaging inflation outpaces pricing elasticity, crushing gross margins.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 years
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Consecutive quarters of declining organic volume.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 58%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin slipping below 30%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to scale Costa Coffee and RTD alcohol.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Persistent deterioration in OCF to Net Income conversion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期间2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
营业收入$38.66B$43.00B$45.75B$47.06B$47.94B+5.5%
毛利$23.30B$25.00B$27.23B$28.74B$29.54B+6.1%
营业利润$11.04B$12.04B$13.10B$14.02B$14.91B+7.8%
净利润$9.77B$9.54B$10.71B$10.63B$13.11B+7.6%
每股收益(摊薄)$2.19$2.47$2.46$3.04+8.5%
EBITDA$15.47B$13.83B$15.61B$15.82B$18.70B+4.9%
研发
销售管理费用$12.14B$12.88B$13.97B$14.58B$14.52B+4.6%

质量评分

Piotroski F 评分
7 / 9
0–9 质量综合
Altman Z 评分
5.07
破产风险 (>3 安全)
Beneish M 评分
-2.35
盈利操纵风险
OCF / 净利润
0.57×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Fail
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
18.0%
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

KO — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, KO looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $78.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $99.5 (range $77.2–$122), which implies roughly 27.0% upside to the midpoint.
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Same sector: Consumer Staples