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MDLZ trades against a final fair-value range of $54.61-$86.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $54.6, high $86.0, with mid-point at $70.1.
Stock analysis

MDLZ fair value $55–$86

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
已分析: 2026-05-20下次更新: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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股价
$61.29
▲ +8.82 (+14.39%)
公允价值
$70
$55–$86
评级
买入
confidence 82/100
上行空间
+14.4%
upside to fair value
安全边际
$59.59
MoS level · 15%
市值
$78.7B
P/E fwd 18.1
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§1 执行摘要

  • Composite fair value $70 with high case $86.
  • Implied upside of 14.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$70
Margin of safety
+12.6%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$61.29Price
Low $54.61
Mid $70.11
High $86.01

MDLZ trades against a final fair-value range of $54.61-$86.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury,
    Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury, Ritz)
  • Unmatched global distribution scale
    Unmatched global distribution scale
  • Cycle upside
    Consumer resilience allows dominant brands to retain elevated pricing even as input costs normalize, driving outsized margin expansion.

§2 看空情景

Persistent inflation in key inputs like cocoa, coupled with consumer down-trading to private label alternatives, compresses gross margins and stalls EPS growthEPS growthYear-over-year change in diluted earnings per share. The bottom-line growth rate that drives shareholder return when multiples are stable.. In this scenario, the market violently re-rates the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate. down to 15x as structural growth assumptions deteriorate.

该论点可能失败的方式

Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion

· Medium

Raw material costs structurally step up, entirely neutralizing pricing levers and crushing gross margins beyond the firm's hedging capacity.

FV impact
-15% to intrinsic value
Trigger
12 to 24 months

Private Label Defection

· Medium

Global consumers permanently shift to generic snacking alternatives, causing an unrecoverable impairment to organic volume growth and brand equity.

FV impact
-22% to intrinsic value
Trigger
24 to 36 months

GLP-1 Demand Disruption

· Low

Widespread global adoption of appetite-suppressing pharmaceuticals permanently shrinks the total addressable market for impulse consumer snacking.

FV impact
-30% to intrinsic value
Trigger
3 to 5 years
需关注的早期预警信号
指标当前触发阈值
Operating cash flow to net income conversion drops sustainably below 1.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward 3-year organic volume growth turns strictly negative.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compresses by more than 150 basis points year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SG&A expenses consistently outpace organic revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio breaches 100% of free cash flow to firm.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 财务历史

损益表 — 最近六期
项目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期间2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
营业收入—$31.50B$36.02B$36.44B$38.54B+5.2%
毛利—$11.31B$13.76B$14.26B$10.94B-0.8%
营业利润—$3.80B$5.61B$6.67B$3.62B-1.2%
净利润—$2.72B$4.96B$4.61B$2.45B-2.5%
每股收益（摊薄）$3.04$1.96$3.62$3.42$1.89-11.2%
EBITDA—$4.76B$7.65B$8.07B$4.97B+1.1%
研发——————
销售管理费用—$7.38B$8.00B$7.44B$7.17B-0.7%

质量评分

OCF / 净利润
1.84×
>1 表示盈利质量高
会计质量门槛
Fail
经行业调整门槛
ROIC
6.0%
投入资本回报率
第 3 节

Numbers analysis

现金流

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

资本配置

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

个人订阅用户 — §4 及之后还有 11 个章节

阅读完整分析 — 还有 11 个章节。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

MDLZ margins questions

  1. MDLZ (MDLZ)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.

FAQ

MDLZ — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MDLZ looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $61.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $70.1 (range $54.6–$86.0), which implies roughly 14.4% upside to the midpoint.

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