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Accelerated transition to 5G Advanced and Wi-Fi 7 standards could expand RF dollar content per handset, while design wins in automotive telemetry diversify revenues.
Lead customer revenue contribution dropping below 50.0% or losing key RF sockets in flagship smartphone launches.
We rate Skyworks Solutions as Sell because the shares trade substantially above Fair value while elevated customer concentration creates unhedged downside risk.5
Our committee rating is Sell, which instructs investors to liquidate existing holdings and avoid committing new capital to the stock. Skyworks operates in mature smartphone markets where pricing pressure from peers limits margin expansion, making current valuation unsustainable.
The report was prepared at a price of $88.76 on 2026-09-18. This price stands well above our Fair value of $44.88 and exceeds our Potential value of $47.77. At this level, market expectations imply aggressive growth that contradicts slowing smartphone demand.
The primary risk to the company is lead customer concentration, as a single smartphone maker generated 67% of FY2025 revenue. If this customer internalizes RF components or dual-sources sockets, factory utilization would plunge, triggering sharp operating deleverage that compresses operating income below $500.0M and impairs dividend cash flow.45
The clearest path to outperformance is content expansion in next-generation 5G Advanced and Wi-Fi 7 handsets. If complex multi-band filtering increases dollar content per device and automotive sales accelerate, operating margins could rebound toward direct peer levels, supporting our Potential value of $47.77, though this remains well below the report-date price.
Increasing radio frequency band integration in 5G Advanced and Wi-Fi 7 devices expands dollar content per handset.
Free cash flow of $1,105.8M and a net cash balance sheet protect dividend distributions during cyclical downturns.5
Custom co-design of multi-band power amplifiers and acoustic filter modules embeds Skyworks into lead customer hardware roadmaps.5
We rate Skyworks Solutions Sell because shares trade at a severe premium to Fair value while 67% customer concentration creates asymmetric downside risk.5
SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. operates worldwide with engineering, manufacturing, sales, and service facilities throughout Asia, Europe, and North America. Its Internet address is www.skyworksinc.com. SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. sells products in markets that are characterized by rapid technological changes, evolving industry standards, frequent new product introductions, short product life cycles, and increasing levels of integration.
Many of its products currently use or incorporate technology licensed or acquired from third parties, and the company expects its products in the future to also require technology from third parties. Its ability to keep pace with this market depends on its ability to obtain technology from third parties on commercially reasonable terms to allow its products to remain competitive.
Under a stressed operating scenario combining a 10 percentage point revenue contraction and 3 percentage point operating margin reduction, customer socket erosion directly undermines fab utilization. The resulting fixed-cost deleverage shrinks annual free cash flow and impairs capacity to maintain dividend distributions.
The downside scenario models customer socket loss or internalization alongside aggressive price competition from rival RF suppliers. Fixed overhead on underutilized packaging and filter capacity causes operating deleverage, reducing cash flow available for capital return.
Operating margin fell from 34.01% in FY2016 to 12.23% in FY2025. Additional pricing concessions across RF front-end modules driven by peer competition from QRVO and Qualcomm would push operating margins below 9.2%.4
可能削弱我们投资逻辑的五项变化。
A socket loss or component in-sourcing by the primary smartphone OEM reduces unit volume across manufacturing lines, causing severe fixed-cost deleverage and sharp top-line contraction that impairs free cash flow generation.
当前：67.0% in FY2025
触发警报：Falls below 50.0% over next 12 months
Skyworks Solutions maintains a Narrow economic moat underpinned by switching costs and intangible assets in specialized radio frequency front-end modules. Co-design of multi-band power amplifiers and acoustic filters embeds Skyworks into flagship handset architectures, creating technical barriers to mid-cycle vendor replacement. However, pricing pressure from RF competitors such as Qorvo and Qualcomm limits economic profit expansion, leaving operating margin at 12.23% in FY2025 compared to analog peer ADI at 39.50%.
Latest ROIC of 6.74% sits below the cost of capital (WACC of 9.90%) due to cyclical handset volume digestion, though historical cash generation supports narrow moat continuity.4
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($44.88). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $442.8M after modeled reinvestment of $0, with terminal value at 40.6% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base path reflects steady RF component content per device in core customer models, with operating margins holding near baseline levels while global handset demand remains mature. The scenario reaches target $44.88 with return -49.4% against $88.76 (as of 2026-09-18). Disconfirmation would occur if primary customer socket allocation drops or pricing concessions accelerate.45
An earnings beat driven by higher content per handset demonstrates resilient pricing power and slows top-line erosion.
In-line financial performance confirms baseline revenue pacing and operating margins near historical lows.
An earnings miss confirms accelerating socket loss or intense peer price concessions that impair operating cash flow.
Operating cash generation comfortably exceeds reported net income, driven by working capital discipline and low capital intensity. Cash conversion, the rate at which operating profit translates into cash flow, remains robust with receivables and inventory tracking seasonal shipment volumes, though operating margin durability remains constrained by customer concentration.45
Skyworks generated $1,300.8M in operating cash flow and $1,105.8M in free cash flow in FY2025, supported by disciplined capital spending of $195.0M. However, free cash flow declined from $1,667.7M in FY2024 and $1,646.1M in FY2023 as revenue contracted from $4,772.4M to $4,086.9M. Operating cash generation remains solid with low net debt of -$877.8M.45
Capital allocation prioritizes shareholder distributions, with $432.6M paid in dividends and $830.2M in share repurchases in FY2025, reducing diluted shares from 160.3M in FY2023 to 155.1M in FY2025. Low debt provides dividend security despite cyclical top-line pressure.
Return on invested capital has compressed as operating margins dropped from 34.01% in FY2016 to 12.23% in FY2025. Restoring returns above the cost of capital requires content-driven gross margin recovery.
Current ROIC of 6.74% sits below the estimated cost of capital (WACC of 9.90%), reflecting cyclical mobile margin compression.
Operating income dropped to $500.0M in FY2025, establishing an operating margin of 12.23% compared to 34.01% in FY2016.
| 营业收入 | US$934,800,000 |
|---|---|
| 营业成本 | US$559,800,000 |
| 毛利 | US$375,000,000 |
| 营业费用 | US$326,500,000 |
| 营业利润 | US$48,500,000 |
| 营业外项目及税项 | -US$14,600,000 |
| 净利润 | US$33,900,000 |
| 总资产 | US$7,917,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 现金 | US$1,161,300,000 |
| 流动资产 | US$3,077,000,000 |
| 总负债 | US$2,159,900,000 |
| 流动负债 | US$1,323,200,000 |
| 股东权益 | US$5,757,100,000 |
| 净利润 | US$477,100,000 |
|---|---|
| 经营现金流入 | US$1,300,800,000 |
| 折旧与摊销 | US$463,000,000 |
| 股份支付 | US$232,400,000 |
| 其他经营调整项 | US$128,300,000 |
| 经营现金流 | US$1,300,800,000 |
| 可用现金 | US$2,669,400,000 |
| 期初现金 | US$1,368,600,000 |
| 投资现金流出 | US$234,000,000 |
| 资本支出 | US$195,000,000 |
| 其他投资活动 | US$39,000,000 |
| 融资现金流出 | US$1,274,100,000 |
| 股份回购 | US$830,200,000 |
| 已付股息 | US$432,600,000 |
| 其他融资活动 | US$11,300,000 |
| 期末现金 | US$1,161,300,000 |
| 投资现金流 | -US$234,000,000 |
| 融资现金流 | -US$1,274,100,000 |
| 按业务类别划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of | 5.6亿 | 59.9% | — |
| Other | 3.8亿 | 40.1% | — |
来源: SEC EDGAR · 申报日期 2025-11-07 · SEC EDGAR
| 按地区划分的收入 | 营业收入 | 占比 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US$31.6亿 | 77.2% | -1.4% |
| Taiwan | US$2.6亿 | 6.3% | -18.4% |
| China | US$2.5亿 | 6.2% | -16.2% |
| South Korea | US$1.9亿 | 4.7% | -6.8% |
| EMEA | US$1.9亿 | 4.5% | 62.3% |
| Asia Other | US$4060万 | 1% | 11.2% |
2026-09-20分析所采用的时点财务数据。
| 期间 | 营业收入 | EBITDA | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 自由现金流 | 资本支出 | 折旧与摊销 | 股份支付 | 股份回购 | 已付股息 | 净债务发行 | 投资现金流 | 融资现金流 | 期初现金 | 期末现金 | 现金与投资 | 总债务 | 营业利润率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACC利差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-09-30 | US$32.9亿 | US$13.7亿 | US$10亿 | US$11亿 | US$9.1亿 | US$1.9亿 | US$2.5亿 | US$7800万 | US$5.3亿 | US$5880万 | — | -US$2.5亿 | -US$8亿 | — | US$10.8亿 | US$10.9亿 | — | 34.0% | — | — | — |
| 2017-09-29 | US$36.5亿 | US$15.1亿 | US$10.1亿 | US$14.6亿 | US$11.5亿 | US$3亿 | US$2.5亿 | US$8850万 | US$4.3亿 | US$5780万 | — | -US$3.3亿 | -US$6亿 | US$10.8亿 | US$16.2亿 | US$16.2亿 | — | 34.3% | — | — | — |
| 2018-09-28 | US$38.7亿 | US$16.2亿 | US$9.2亿 | US$12.6亿 | US$8.4亿 | US$4.2亿 | US$3亿 | US$1.1亿 | US$7.6亿 | US$6710万 | — | -US$11.5亿 | -US$9.9亿 | US$16.2亿 | US$7.3亿 | US$10.3亿 | — | 34.1% | — | — | — |
| 2019-09-27 | US$33.8亿 | US$13.3亿 | US$8.5亿 | US$13.7亿 | US$9.7亿 | US$4亿 | US$3.7亿 | US$8010万 | US$6.6亿 | US$7510万 | — | -US$3.4亿 | -US$9.1亿 | US$7.3亿 | US$8.5亿 | US$10.5亿 | — | 28.2% | — | — | — |
| 2020-10-02 | US$33.6亿 | US$12.6亿 | US$8.1亿 | US$12亿 | US$8.2亿 | US$3.9亿 | US$3.6亿 | US$1.6亿 | US$6.5亿 | US$8300万 | — | -US$5.8亿 | -US$9.1亿 | US$8.5亿 | US$5.7亿 | US$9.7亿 | US$0 | 26.6% | — | — | — |
| 2021-10-01 | US$51.1亿 | US$20.5亿 | US$15亿 | US$17.7亿 | US$11.3亿 | US$6.4亿 | US$4.4亿 | US$1.9亿 | US$2亿 | US$9250万 | — | -US$31.3亿 | US$16.8亿 | US$5.7亿 | US$8.8亿 | US$10.2亿 | US$22.4亿 | 31.6% | — | 6.3% | — |
| 2022-09-30 | US$54.9亿 | US$22.1亿 | US$12.8亿 | US$14.2亿 | US$9.4亿 | US$4.9亿 | US$6.9亿 | US$2亿 | US$8.9亿 | US$9940万 | -US$5000万 | -US$3.8亿 | -US$13.6亿 | US$8.8亿 | US$5.7亿 | US$5.9亿 | US$16.9亿 | 27.8% | — | 8.4% | — |
| 2023-09-29 | US$47.7亿 | US$17.6亿 | US$9.8亿 | US$18.6亿 | US$16.5亿 | US$2.1亿 | US$6.1亿 | US$1.9亿 | US$1.8亿 | US$1.1亿 | -US$9亿 | -US$2.2亿 | -US$14.8亿 | US$5.7亿 | US$7.2亿 | US$7.3亿 | US$9.9亿 | 23.6% | — | 10.5% | — |
| 2024-09-27 | US$41.8亿 | US$11.2亿 | US$6亿 | US$18.2亿 | US$16.7亿 | US$1.6亿 | US$4.5亿 | US$1.8亿 | US$7730万 | US$4.4亿 | -US$3亿 | -US$3.6亿 | -US$8.2亿 | US$7.2亿 | US$13.7亿 | US$15.6亿 | US$9.9亿 | 15.3% | — | 9.5% | — |
| 2025-10-03 | US$40.9亿 | US$10.2亿 | US$4.8亿 | US$13亿 | US$11.1亿 | US$2亿 | US$4.6亿 | US$2.3亿 | US$8.3亿 | US$4.3亿 | US$0 | -US$2.3亿 | -US$12.7亿 | US$13.7亿 | US$11.6亿 | US$13.7亿 | US$5亿 | 12.2% | — | 10.2% | — |
Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) trades at 17.6x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.7x. Its EV/EBITDA of 15.0x compares with a peer median of 21.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Microchip Technology Incorporated, QUALCOMM Incorporated, Qorvo Inc. and Analog Devices Inc., as of 2026-09-20.
Industry capex to depreciation of 1.27 and capex to revenue of 4.4% indicate ongoing fab maintenance spending, while company capex moderated to $195.0M in FY2025 from $489.4M in FY2022.
A bull cycle requires accelerated adoption of 5G Advanced and Wi-Fi 7 content across premium smartphones, alongside cyclical recovery in automotive telemetry and industrial edge sockets.
A bear cycle involves extended handset replacement cycles and pricing erosion from RF competitors, depressing capacity utilization across packaging and filter production lines.
Skyworks maintains a specialized position in mobile RF front-ends, with customer concentration (67% of FY2025 revenue) tying volume strictly to lead OEM shipments.5
Under our Sell rating, zero position weight is warranted as the share price trades well above Fair value of $44.88.
Risk management requires disciplined capital reduction given the substantial valuation gap, where shares trade at a premium to Fair value of $44.88 while customer concentration presents severe unhedged downside risk.
Reallocate capital away from SWKS as shares trade at a 49.4% premium to Fair value with uncompensated customer concentration risk.5
While the current dividend is funded by $1,105.8M in free cash flow, severe operating margin compression limits long-term dividend growth.45
The stock offers no margin of safety at $88.76 against Fair value of $44.88, warranting position liquidation.3
Sell existing positions and avoid new commitments as the market price trades at an unsustainable premium to Fair value.
Elevated customer concentration (67% of revenue) and competitive pricing pressure limit operational recovery, creating substantial capital loss risk.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Consolidated revenue contracted to $4,086.9M in FY2025, with FY2026 consensus estimating -3.41% top-line contraction. Stagnation in handset replacement cycles would extend negative revenue growth across the five-year forecast horizon.4
The terminal multiple assumption of 16.01x exceeds peer QRVO forward P/E of 14.82x. De-rating SWKS toward commodity hardware multiples reflecting customer concentration reduces terminal valuation by 20%.25
Intense pricing pressure from competitors during annual handset component procurement cycles overwhelms internal packaging efficiencies, permanently lowering operating profitability and eroding returns on invested capital below the cost of capital.
当前：12.23% in FY2025
触发警报：Falls below 10.0% over FY2026-FY2027
Prolonged consumer handset replacement cycles and slower content gains across 5G Advanced devices would stall top-line stabilization, reducing operational cash generation needed to service dividends and internal reinvestment schedules.
当前：-2.18% in FY2025
触发警报：Contracts worse than -5.0% YoY in FY2026
Escalating regional trade restrictions or customer manufacturing relocations would disrupt physical component assembly schedules in Asian hubs, forcing unexpected capital expenditures to relocate packaging facilities and compressing net operating profit.
当前：6.22% ($254.2M) in FY2025
触发警报：Rises above 25.0% of consolidated revenue
Operating deleverage combined with rising inventory working capital requirements would compress cash available for shareholder capital returns, constraining dividend coverage and forcing reduction in share repurchases.
当前：$1,105.8M in FY2025
触发警报：Falls below $800.0M over the trailing twelve months
| Product diversification into automotive telemetry, industrial IoT, and edge wireless infrastructure applications. |
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 70.5% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
The bull path assumes accelerated adoption of 5G Advanced and Wi-Fi 7 standards expanding dollar content per smartphone, accompanied by faster market penetration in automotive and industrial markets. Reaching target $47.77 and return -46.2% requires operating leverage to lift margins toward RF peer levels. Disconfirmation would appear if RF peer competition caps module pricing gains.2
Margin trajectory reflects pricing power against RF peers and fixed fab absorption.4
Cash generation determines dividend sustainability and share repurchase capacity.5
Dollar content expansion per device counterbalances slowing global smartphone unit sales.
Assembly and packaging continuity prevents component delivery bottlenecks to global OEMs.5
| 2035 |
|---|
| Revenue | $3.95B | $4.04B | $4.14B | $4.24B | $4.35B | $4.46B | $4.57B | $4.68B | $4.80B | $4.92B |
| Revenue growth | -3.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| Operating income | $482.92M | $493.94M | $506.26M | $518.87M | $531.81M | $545.11M | $558.73M | $572.70M | $587.02M | $601.70M |
| Tax rate | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| NOPAT | $442.84M | $452.94M | $464.24M | $475.81M | $487.67M | $499.86M | $512.36M | $525.17M | $538.30M | $551.75M |
| Reinvestment | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $37.08M | $76.02M | $116.88M | $159.73M | $204.66M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 14.8% | 22.3% | 29.7% | 37.1% |
| Depreciation and amortization | $447.21M | $457.45M | $468.89M | $480.61M | $492.63M | $504.94M | $517.57M | $530.51M | $543.77M | $557.36M |
| Free cash flow to firm | $442.84M | $452.94M | $464.24M | $475.81M | $487.67M | $462.78M | $436.34M | $408.29M | $378.57M | $347.10M |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Free cash flow was $1,105.8M in FY2025, converting over 100% of GAAP net income of $477.1M.
Robust cash generation funds current dividend payments without requiring incremental debt financing.
Capital expenditures declined to $195.0M in FY2025 (4.8% of revenue), down from $489.4M in FY2022.
Lower capital intensity protects free cash flow during cyclical downturns, though limits rapid internal fab expansion.
| 利润率 |
|---|
| SWKS | Skyworks Solutions Inc. | $13.4B | 17.6x | 3.3x | 15.0x | 5.1% | — |
| MCHP | Microchip Technology Incorporated | $39.8B | 16.0x | 7.8x | 29.8x | 7.2% | 24.0% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | $189.8B | 17.4x | 4.3x | 16.1x | 33.8% | 18.5% |
| QRVO | Qorvo Inc. | $10.3B | 14.8x | 2.8x | 11.9x | 11.6% | 15.8% |
| ADI | Analog Devices Inc. | $182.1B | 23.0x | 13.1x | 27.3x | 12.2% | 39.5% |
| Below 10.0% in any reported quarter |
| Execute position liquidation as pricing erosion outpaces cost reductions4 |
| Greater China and Taiwan Assembly Continuity | Greater China revenue share exceeds 25.0% or component shipments halted | Re-underwrite geopolitical supply risk and liquidate remaining exposure5 |
