Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)

NYSE: TPL · USD

$332

+1.85 (+0.6%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-07

Our latest published analysis: TPL rated Sell

Texas Pacific Land Corporation's published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$204 / share

Potential value

$235 / share

Upside to FV

-40.8%

from $332

Moat

9/10

Wide

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$23.8B
Revenue (ttm)	897.5M
Net income (ttm)	541.4M
EPS (ttm)	$7.84
Shares out	69M
P/E (trailing)	42.4x
P/E (forward)	37.7x
Dividend	$2.40 (0.72%)
Volume	225,907
Beta	0.59

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 897.5M
Net income (ttm): 541.4M
EPS (ttm): $7.84
P/E (trailing): 42.4x
P/E (forward): 37.7x
Market cap: $23.8B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$451.0M	$667.4M	$631.6M	$705.8M	$798.2M	+15.3%
Gross profit	$421.5M	$634.5M	$583.3M	$634.5M	$682.1M	+12.8%
Operating income	$362.4M	$562.3M	$486.1M	$539.1M	$592.2M	+13.1%
Net income	$270.0M	$446.4M	$405.6M	$454.0M	$481.4M	+15.6%
EPS (diluted)	$3.87	$6.42	$5.86	$6.57	$6.97	+15.8%
EBITDA	$378.7M	$577.7M	$500.8M	$604.0M	$655.5M	+14.7%
R&D	$1	$1	$1	—	—	+1.2%
SG&A	$59.1M	$63.5M	$89.8M	$34.5M	$81.7M	+8.4%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	持有
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	持有
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	卖出
BKR	Baker Hughes Company	54.3B	18.8x	1.9x	11.7%	+7.0%	+20.1%	卖出
COP	ConocoPhillips	179B	19.8x	2.8x	11.6%	+16.8%	+73.8%	持有
CVX	Chevron Corporation	448.9B	22.0x	2.2x	8.2%	+12.6%	+54.1%	减持

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$204.19

-40.8% from spot

The Base scenario reflects fundamental earnings realization where regional natural gas takeaway capacity steadily clears over upcoming quarters, stabilizing Delaware Basin completions. Water handling and disposal volumes grow in line with expanding Permian water cuts, while Land and Resource Management royalty revenues reflect steady multi-bench development. Reinvestment moderates following the FY2026 buildout, establishing Fair value of $204.19 with an estimated scenario probability of 55.0% and an implied return of -40.8% from $344.84.

Delaware Basin operator activity stabilizes as planned regional pipeline capacity enters commercial service.
Water service revenue expands steadily as produced water volumes grow across core Permian acreage.
Capital expenditure crests in FY2026 within guided ranges before moderating toward sustaining capital levels.
Consolidated operating margins remain aligned with historical fee-simple royalty averages.

Bull20%

Price target

$234.72

-31.9% from spot

In the Bull scenario, regional natural gas pipeline additions relieve Delaware Basin takeaway constraints faster than anticipated, driving completion acceleration and lifting water sales throughput. Concurrently, management executes definitive commercial agreements with hyperscalers for compute surface leasing and produced water desalination for data center cooling. As transitional capital expenditures normalize post-FY2026, free cash flow conversion expands significantly, supporting Potential value of $234.72 with an estimated scenario probability of 20.0% and an implied return of -31.9% relative to $344.84.

Regional natural gas takeaway additions eliminate Delaware Basin in-basin price discounts, prompting operators to accelerate completion activity.
Definitive commercial agreements for data center surface leases and produced water cooling are executed with major technology users.
Transitional growth capital expenditures normalize post-FY2026 toward sustaining maintenance levels, expanding free cash flow conversion.
Consolidated operating margins remain above historical benchmarks as royalty and water logistics revenues compound.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($204.19). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
7.1%	$218	$222	$228	$233	$240
7.6%	$207	$211	$215	$219	$225
8.1%	$198	$201	$204	$208	$212
8.6%	$190	$192	$195	$198	$202
9.1%	$183	$185	$187	$190	$193

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E37.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E43.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE36.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC38.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All TPL indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

287

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 287 of 287 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001811074
Company name	Texas Pacific Land Corporation
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	88262P102
Earnings date	2026-11-04
Earnings time	amc
Employees	114
Employees change	3
Employees growth	2.7%
Enterprise value	$22.7B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1888
In index	SP500
Industry	Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US88262P1021
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-18
Last earnings date	2026-08-05
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2025-12-23
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$22.9B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-04
Options	Yes
Price	$332.29
Price currency	USD
Sector	Energy
SIC code	6792
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	TPL
U.S. state	Texas
Website	https://www.texaspacific.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	37.9x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	46.73x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	41.34x
Earnings yield	2.36%
EV/Earnings	42.07x
EV/EBIT	33.79x
EV/EBITDA	30.71x
EV/FCF	43.24x
EV/Sales	25.38x
FCF / EV yield	2.31%
FCF yield	2.29%
Forward EV/Sales	20.71x
Forward P/E	33.28x
Forward P/S	20.92x
Graham number	65.39926
Graham upside	-80.39%
Industry forward P/E	10.82x
Industry P/E	16.09x
Lynch fair value	$174.56
Lynch upside	-47.67%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	45.11x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	39.23x
P/B ratio	13.63x
P/E ratio	42.38x
P/FCF ratio	43.68x
P/OCF ratio	38.14x
P/S ratio	25.63x
Price / tangible book value	14.02x
Price/EBITDA ratio	31.02x
Sector forward P/E	10.03x
Sector P/E	15.16x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	75.1%
EBITDA margin	82.62%
Effective tax rate	20.87%
FCF margin	58.68%
Gross margin	93.34%
Operating margin	75.1%
Pretax margin	76.23%
Profit margin	60.32%
Profit per employee	$4.7M
Profitable quarters	126
Profitable years	33
Revenue per employee	$7.9M
ROA	25.81%
ROA (5Y)	32.16%
ROCE	38.18%
ROE	36.57%
ROE (5Y)	46.74%
ROIC	38.54%
ROIC (5Y)	112%
SBC / revenue	1.86%
Tax / revenue	15.91%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	17.31%
EPS growth (Q)	32.74%
EPS growth (QoQ)	7.73%
EPS growth 10Y	31.18%
EPS growth 3Y	9.28%
EPS growth 5Y	22.53%
EPS growth quarters	11
EPS growth years	2
FCF growth	7.62%
FCF growth (Q)	28.42%
FCF growth (QoQ)	-2.36%
FCF growth 3Y	6.75%
FCF growth 5Y	22.07%
Gross profit growth	19.3%
Gross profit growth (Q)	30.93%
Gross profit growth 3Y	10.31%
Gross profit growth 5Y	21.56%
Net income growth	17.25%
Net income growth (Q)	32.54%
Net income growth (QoQ)	7.72%
Net income growth 3Y	9.13%
Net income growth 5Y	22.26%
Net income growth quarters	11
Net income growth years	2
OCF growth	15.38%
OCF growth (Q)	42.98%
OCF growth (QoQ)	6.7%
OCF growth 10Y	31.76%
OCF growth 3Y	10.17%
OCF growth 5Y	24.78%
Operating income growth	18.45%
Operating income growth (Q)	33.61%
Operating income growth 3Y	9.59%
Operating income growth 5Y	21.73%
Revenue growth	20.82%
Revenue growth (Q)	31.2%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	3.9%
Revenue growth 10Y	31.14%
Revenue growth 3Y	11.31%
Revenue growth 5Y	22.23%
Revenue growth quarters	11
Revenue growth years	2

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-76.5M
Depreciation and amortization	$67.6M
EBIT	$674M
EBITDA	$741.6M
EPS	$7.84
FCF per share	$7.64
Financing cash flow	$-179.7M
Free cash flow	$526.7M
Free cash flow minus SBC	$510M
Gross profit	$837.7M
Income taxes	$142.8M
Investing cash flow	$-718.8M
Net cash flow	$-295.3M
Net income	$541.4M
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$586.5M
Operating income	$674M
Revenue	$897.5M
Stock-based compensation	$16.7M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	83.46
Book value per share	$24.25
Debt / EBITDA	0.02
Debt / equity	0.01
Debt / FCF	0.03
Interest coverage	253.86
Long-term assets	$1.4B
Long-term liabilities	$93M
Net cash (debt)	$230.6M
Net cash / market cap	1%
Net cash growth	-57.61%
Net debt / EBITDA	-0.31
Net debt / equity	-0.14
Net debt / FCF	-0.44
Piotroski F-Score	5
Property, plant and equipment	$196M
Shareholders' equity	$1.7B
Tangible book value	$1.6B
Tangible book value per share	$23.79
Total assets	$1.9B
Total cash	$248.6M
Total debt	$18M
Total liabilities	$187.1M
WACC	7.49%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.55
Current assets	$428.4M
Current liabilities	$94.1M
Current ratio	4.55
Net working capital	$88.2M
Quick ratio	4.5
Working capital	$334.3M
Working capital turnover	1.88

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	0.03%
Dividend growth	9.38%
Dividend growth (10Y)	52.44%
Dividend growth (3Y)	18.1%
Dividend growth (5Y)	2.85%
Dividend growth years	4
Dividend payment date	2026-09-15
Dividend payment years	13
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$2.40
Dividend yield	0.72%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-01
FCF payout ratio	31.43%
Last dividend	$0.60
Payout ratio	30.61%
Shareholder yield	0.75%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	1,050.27%
10Y return CAGR	29.29%
10Y total return	1,204.5%
150-day SMA	$387.93
15Y price change	7,198.27%
15Y return CAGR	34.37%
15Y total return	8,307.07%
1D price change	0.56%
1M price change	-2.57%
1M total return	-2.57%
1W price change	-2.89%
1W total return	-2.89%
1Y price change	7.26%
1Y return CAGR	7.93%
1Y total return	7.92%
20-day SMA	$346.33
200-day SMA	$401.66
20Y price change	8,854.19%
20Y return CAGR	26.36%
20Y total return	10,674.52%
3M price change	-16.22%
3M total return	-16.09%
3Y price change	64.36%
3Y return CAGR	19.3%
3Y total return	69.81%
50-day SMA	$354.99
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$547.20
52-week high date	2026-02-23
52-week low	$269.23
52-week low date	2025-12-16
5Y price change	140.62%
5Y return CAGR	20.63%
5Y total return	155.37%
6M price change	-23.94%
6M total return	-23.71%
All-time high	$589.71
All-time high date	2024-11-25
All-time low	$0.05
All-time low date	1970-05-26
Average true range (ATR)	$11.65
Average volume	275.9K
Beta (1Y)	-1.27
Beta (2Y)	0.58
Beta (5Y)	0.59
Change from 52-week high	-39.27%
Change from 52-week low	23.42%
Change from all-time high	-43.65%
Change from all-time low	676,661.71%
Change from open	-0.4%
Day's gap	0.97%
Dollar volume	$75.1M
High price	$337.61
Low price	$331.59
Monthly RSI	47.83
Open price	$333.63
Position in 52-week range	11.63%
Premarket change	0.2%
Premarket close	$330.43
Premarket price	$331.08
Previous close	$330.43
Price vs 150-day SMA	-14.34%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-4.06%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-17.27%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-6.4%
Relative volume	0.82
RSI	41.13
Sharpe ratio	0.32
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.51
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.54
Sortino ratio	0.57
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.87
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.91
Volume	225.9K
Weekly RSI	40.19
YTD price change	15.69%
YTD total return	16.19%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	58.9M
Float percentage	85.35%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.04%
Shares change (YoY)	-0.03%
Shares held by insiders	0.36%
Shares held by institutions	74.13%
Shares outstanding	69M
Short % of float	7.18%
Short % of shares	6.13%
Short ratio	10.9 days

Deeper analysis on TPL

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this TPL report

What is the latest published TPL stock rating?

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full TPL analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07, lives at /stocks/TPL/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for TPL?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-07 gives TPL a fair value of USD 204 and a potential value of USD 235. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the TPL page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-07). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellTPL · Fair value $204-40.8%

Read full analysis →

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	8.5
Profitability	8.5
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	9.0
Competitive Moat	9.0
Earnings Quality	7.5
Capital Efficiency	8.5

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)

Our latest published analysis: TPL rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · TPL

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All TPL indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on TPL

Frequently asked questions

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