Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
NYSE: CAT · Real-Time Price · USD
$897
+1.79 (+0.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: CAT rated Sell
CAT is rated Sell at $900.76 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $338.91, implying -62.38% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$339 / share
$238 – $460
Upside to FV
-62.4%
from $897
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Prolonged global infrastructure spending stimulus and persistent high mining capex drive an extended upcycle, allowing CAT to sustain high-teens operating margins and robust pricing power longer than historically typical.
Biggest risk
Global Construction Recession
Global Construction Recession: Simultaneous contraction in North American and European infrastructure spending leading to severe revenue declines.
Recommended action
Sell
CAT is rated Sell at $900.76 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $338.91, implying -62.38% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $414.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 70.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 9.4B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $20.1 | |
| Shares out | 460.6M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 44.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 30.7x | |
| Dividend | $6.04 (0.67%) | |
| Volume | 2,030,293 | |
| Beta | 1.62 | |
| Price target | $795 | -11.4% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Caterpillar Inc.CAT
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 70.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 9.4B
- EPS (ttm)
- $20.1
- P/E (trailing)
- 44.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 30.7x
- Market cap
- $414.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $59.43B | $67.06B | $64.81B | $67.59B | +4.4% |
| Gross profit | $17.51B | $23.26B | $23.32B | $21.48B | +7.0% |
| Operating income | $8.83B | $12.97B | $13.07B | $11.15B | +8.1% |
| Net income | $6.71B | $10.34B | $10.79B | $8.88B | +9.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $12.64 | $20.12 | $22.05 | $18.81 | +14.2% |
| EBITDA | $11.41B | $15.71B | $16.04B | $14.31B | +7.8% |
| R&D | $1.81B | $2.11B | $2.11B | $2.15B | +5.8% |
| SG&A | $5.65B | $6.37B | $6.67B | $6.99B | +7.3% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $238
- Fair value (mid)
- $339
- Fair value (high)
- $460
- Current price
- $897
- Upside to mid
- -62.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $360 | 40% |
| FCFF DCF | $198 | 35% |
| Owner earnings | $586 | 15% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $377 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $269 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$795
-11.4%
In the news
Latest news · CAT
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $414.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 44.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 30.7x
- P/S
- 5.8x
- P/B
- 22.2x
- PEG
- 2.08
- EV / EBITDA
- 31.1x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 28.6%
- Operating margin
- 17.4%
- ROE
- 51.3%
- ROA
- 8.5%
- ROIC
- 16.5%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 2.31
- Current ratio
- 1.35
- Quick ratio
- 0.73
Trading
- Beta
- 1.62
- Volume
- 2,030,293
- Dividend yield
- 0.7%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -60.7% expected return to fair value
Bull15%
Price target
$460.07
-48.9% from spot
Prolonged global infrastructure spending stimulus and persistent high mining capex drive an extended upcycle, allowing CAT to sustain high-teens operating margins and robust pricing power longer than historically typical.
- Sustained 18%+ operating margins
- Elevated terminal multiple >20x
Base50%
Price target
$338.91
-62.4% from spot
Mean reversion in growth and margins over the medium term. Revenue growth normalizes to 3% terminal, and operating margins revert to mid-cycle averages, reflecting heavy cycle-average reinvestment needs.
- Revenue growth fading to 3% terminal
- Terminal multiple normalization to 15x
Bear35%
Price target
$238.48
-73.5% from spot
A global macroeconomic slowdown reduces construction and mining equipment demand, leading to rapid margin compression, falling revenue, and severe multiple contraction from current peak valuation levels.
- Negative revenue growth in near term
- Severe margin contraction below 10%
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $339.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 40% | $360 | -59.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 35% | $198 | -77.9% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $586 | -34.7% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 10% | $377 | -58.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $269 | -70.1% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $339 | -62.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $416 | $451 | $492 | $542 | $602 |
| 8.5% | $360 | $386 | $416 | $451 | $492 |
| 9.5% | $318 | $337 | $360 | $386 | $416 |
| 10.5% | $284 | $300 | $318 | $337 | $360 |
| 11.5% | $257 | $270 | $284 | $300 | $318 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet3.5
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment3.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
6.2/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Avoid long exposure. Consider short positions via options to limit upside risk.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$897
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Cover shorts if valuation normalizes near the $338 midpoint or if structural growth re-accelerates unexpectedly.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E30.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE51.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC16.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
284
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 284 of 284 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on CAT
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this CAT report
What is the current CAT stock rating?
Caterpillar Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full CAT analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/CAT/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for CAT?
The latest report frames CAT around $238 to $460. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the CAT page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellCAT · Fair value $339-62.4% · Confidence 88/100