بإذنك، نستخدم تحليلات محدودة تراعي الخصوصية لفهم مسارات البحث الفعالة. لا نستخدم أدوات تتبع إعلانية أو تسجيل الجلسات. يمكنك تغيير هذا الخيار في التفضيلات. اقرأ سياسة الخصوصية.
Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
FDX — frequently asked questions
Is FedEx Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-03, FDX screens modestly overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is 290 USD versus our fair value of 252 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 319 USD. That implies roughly 13.4% downside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, gives FDX a fair value of 252 USD and a potential value of 319 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for FedEx Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy FDX now?
Our latest published rating for FDX, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Reduce. FedEx Corporation screens modestly overvalued at the analysis-date price of 290 USD versus fair value of 252 USD; potential value is 319 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for FDX?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-03 documents FedEx Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is FDX's rating?
Our latest published rating for FDX, analyzed 2026-10-03, is Reduce, with a published moat assessment of 7/10 (Narrow). It reflects our fair value of 252 USD, the potential value of 319 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (290 USD).
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.
§1 الملخص التنفيذيEN
الإجابة في 30 ثانيةReduce
السعر مقابل القيمة
Price
$290.36
Fair value
$251.53
Potential value
$318.80
As of
2026-10-02
لماذا قد تنجح الفرضية
Accelerated execution of the DRIVE cost-reduction program and Network 2.0 consolidation could structurally lower surface transportation overhead, closing the operating margin gap between FedEx's 5.77% and direct peer UPS's 9.05%.
ما الذي سيغيّر تقييمنا
Consolidated revenue contraction exceeding 2.0% year-over-year or parcel yield declines combined with sustained wage and jet fuel cost inflation.
We assign FedEx Corporation a Reduce rating. At the analysis price of $290.36 as of October 2, 2026, the stock trades at a 15.4% premium to our Fair value of $251.53, representing an implied return of -13.4% as near-term volume softness and high fixed transportation overhead constrain operating margin expansion.
Our rating on FedEx Corporation is Reduce. For an ordinary investor holding the shares, this means trimming portfolio exposure or reallocating capital toward opportunities offering a wider margin of safety. While FedEx commands a foundational global transportation franchise with vital delivery density and robust cash generation, its current valuation leaves little room for freight volume cyclicality or execution delays in network restructuring.
The report was prepared at a price of $290.36 on October 2, 2026. That price stands at a 15.4% premium to our house Fair value of $251.53, corresponding to an implied return of -13.4%. While our reaches $318.80 under optimistic operational scenarios, the shares trade well above our central estimate of intrinsic worth, skewing the risk-reward balance unfavorably.
The primary risk that would worsen the outlook is a protracted industrial freight downturn paired with commercial parcel yield compression. In FY2026, FedEx generated $5,463M in operating income on $94,720M in revenue, reflecting a modest 5.77% operating margin. Because the company carries heavy fixed overhead across aircraft, sorting facilities, and linehaul operations, top-line contraction creates negative operating leverage. Investors would observe this risk taking hold if quarterly package yields decline or consolidated operating margins compress toward 4.5%.5
The chief catalyst that could drive value toward our Potential value of $318.80 is accelerated structural cost rationalization through the DRIVE initiative and Network 2.0 consolidation. By integrating surface pickup, transport, and delivery operations across Federal Express ($82,273M revenue) and optimizing freight linehaul ($8,795M revenue), FedEx could narrow the profitability gap with direct peer UPS (9.05% operating margin). Lifting consolidated operating margins toward 7.2% would expand annual operating cash flow beyond FY2026's $8,925M, generate free cash flow above $6.0B, and increase per-share value.5,6
Global Network Density and Scale Barriers
FedEx operates an irreplaceable global transportation network generating $94,720M in annual revenue, with Federal Express ($82,273M) providing immense barriers to entry and sticky commercial account relationships.5,6
Structural Margin Expansion Potential
Successful network consolidation under the DRIVE program and Network 2.0 offers potential to lift operating margins from 5.77% toward direct peer UPS's 9.05% benchmark, driving Potential value toward $318.80.5
Reduce: FedEx trades at a 15.4% premium to our Fair value of $251.53 as near-term revenue contraction and fixed transportation overhead limit operating margin expansion.
نظرة عامة على الشركة
FedEx Corporation (“FedEx”) was incorporated in Delaware on October 2, 1997 to serve as the parent holding company and provide strategic direction to the FedEx portfolio of companies. FedEx provides customers and businesses worldwide with a broad portfolio of transportation, e-commerce, and business services, offering integrated business solutions utilizing its flexible, efficient, and intelligent global network. Domestic offers a wide range of U.S. domestic shipping services for packages and freight. FEDEX CORP offers three overnight package delivery services (FedEx First Overnight, FedEx Priority Overnight, and FedEx Standard Overnight) and three deferred package delivery services (FedEx 2Day, FedEx 2Day AM, and FedEx Express Saver). FedEx SameDay service is available 365 days a year throughout all 50 states for urgent shipments up to 150 pounds.
Federal Express operates a unified, fully integrated air-ground express network under the respected FedEx brand. FedEx Freight provides LTL freight transportation services as a separate subsidiary. During 2026 and 2025, Federal Express and FedEx Freight represented its major service lines and constitute its reportable segments. FEDEX CORP allocates the net operating costs of these services to reflect the full cost of operating its businesses in the results of those segments.
§2 السيناريو الهبوطيEN
In a stagflationary freight downturn, consolidated revenue declines by over 2.0% as freight volumes contract and parcel yields soften under intense pricing competition from direct peer UPS. Operating margin drops from 5.77% toward 3.5%-4.5% due to high fixed aircraft and hub sortation costs. Concurrently, refinancing debt maturities ($1,506M in year 1 and $2,751M in year 3) against elevated benchmark yields (10-year Treasury at 5.24%) elevates borrowing costs on $42,944M total debt, squeezing net income below $3.0B and driving fair value down toward $199.05.
The downside scenario reflects persistent industrial freight softness and package yield compression across core transportation networks. Lower operating volume creates negative operating leverage against fixed aircraft and sortation facilities, compressing operating margins and diminishing operating cash flows. In this environment, elevated capital costs and debt service obligations constrain free cash flow conversion.
كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة
Severe parcel yield compression and wage/fuel cost inflation compressing operating margin
FY2026 operating margin was 5.77% based on operating income of $5,463M on revenue of $94,720M. In FY2020, operating margin fell to 3.49% during volume and cost volatility. Fixed transportation overhead creates negative operating leverage during package yield declines and wage/fuel spikes, risking an operating margin decline below 3.5% with an estimated -28.5% fair value impact.
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
التطورات الخمسة التي قد تضعف أطروحتنا الاستثمارية.
Severe negative operating leverage from package yield declines and wage or fuel inflation eroding cost takeout benefits.
الحالي:5.77% in FY2026
تنبيه إذا< 4.50%
02
§3 الميزة التنافسيةEN
Narrow
FedEx Corporation derives a Narrow economic moat primarily from efficient scale and cost advantages embedded in its global air-and-ground transportation network. The company's hub-and-spoke infrastructure connects more than 220 countries and territories, handling millions of packages daily. This massive physical footprint creates insurmountable entry barriers for potential new competitors, as replicating FedEx's fleet of cargo aircraft, automated sortation hubs, and extensive ground vehicle dispatch systems would require prohibitive capital commitments with no guarantee of achieving required package density. Federal Express alone generated $82,273M in FY2026 revenue, demonstrating the scale required to operate time-definite express logistics profitably.
Despite these formidable structural assets, FedEx's economic moat remains bounded to Narrow rather than Wide due to the presence of an equally scaled direct peer, UPS. Operating in a duopolistic parcel environment, FedEx frequently faces price competition on enterprise commercial contracts and e-commerce package volume. Direct peer UPS generates a 9.05% operating margin, highlighting that FedEx's consolidated operating margin of 5.77% reflects higher structural operating costs across separate air and ground networks. Ongoing consolidation under the DRIVE and Network 2.0 initiatives aims to narrow this efficiency gap, but execution hurdles and labor constraints keep economic profits within a 5-year competitive duration window.
الربح الاقتصادي
Evaluating returns against capital costs, latest ROIC of 9.56% modestly exceeds computed WACC of 8.2048%, although it sits slightly below computed Ke moderate of 10.5603%. Consolidated FY2026 operating income of $5,463M on revenue of $94,720M yields an operating margin of 5.77%, confirming positive economic profit over cost of debt but narrow spread over total cost of capital.2,5
7/ 10
Narrow
Sources of advantage
01Efficient Scale — FedEx operates an integrated global air and ground express logistics network that generated $82,273M in Federal Express revenue in FY2026 across thousands of daily flight routes and sorting hubs, where capital intensity and route density deter subscale entrants.Wide
02Cost Advantage — The high density of package sortation across Federal Express ($5,912M segment operating income) and LTL freight ($8,795M revenue in FedEx Freight) lowers incremental handling and linehaul cost per unit relative to smaller regional carriers.
التهديدات المعروفة للميزة التنافسية
التهديد
الخطورة
الجدول الزمني
التخفيف
E-Commerce Customer Insourcing and Captive Delivery Network Expansion
medium
2-3 years
Pivoting delivery capacity toward higher-margin commercial B2B, healthcare, and industrial shipments while partnering with diverse multi-channel retailers.
Intense Price Competition from Direct Competitor UPS
الصفوف: معدل الخصم (Ke للأرباح؛ WACC للتدفقات النقدية). الأعمدة: النمو النهائي.
القيمة العادلة
تغير المدة (سنوات)
-5
-2
0
+2
+5
القيمة العادلة
250.79 US$
251.18 US$
251.53 US$
251.86 US$
252.31 US$
مدة الميزة التنافسية: 5 سنوات في الحالة الأساسية المميزة. تبقى الافتراضات الأخرى ثابتة.
مرجع الحساسية
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($251.53). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
منحدر التدفق النقدي الحر
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $3.6B after modeled reinvestment of $495.7M, with terminal value at 77.0% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Disciplined capital return through share repurchases offsetting employee share issuance.
The base case represents the modal operating path, where FedEx maintains network routing density and achieves steady progress on structural cost rationalization. Operating margins expand modestly across the forecast horizon as surface network integration reduces duplicative sortation overhead, supporting Fair value of $251.53 against the analysis price of $290.36.
Upgrade the rating; Maintain existing trimmed allocation pending confirmation of sustained parcel yield stabilization and cost discipline.
المُحفِّز: Operating margin expansion in Federal Express exceeding consensus expectations alongside positive package volume growth.
A quarterly earnings beat driven by structural cost rationalization would demonstrate improved network efficiency, warranting a rating review to acknowledge margin stabilization.
متوافق
Maintain Reduce; Re-examine operating margin progression and freight volume trends at next earnings release without adjusting allocation.
المُحفِّز: Quarterly revenue and operating margin matching consensus expectations with stable parcel yields.
Performance matching consensus confirms that operating leverage remains constrained and valuation remains full relative to intrinsic earnings power.
دون التوقعات
Downgrade the rating; Eliminate remaining exposure and reallocate capital away from industrial freight sensitive positions.
المُحفِّز: Operating margin compression driven by parcel yield contraction and industrial freight softness.
An earnings miss caused by falling parcel yields and fixed cost deleverage would validate operational deterioration and accelerate multiple compression toward direct peer levels.
جودة الأرباح
FedEx demonstrates solid underlying cash conversion, with operating cash flows comfortably covering capital investments and yielding positive free cash generation. High depreciation charges relative to capital expenditures reflect disciplined fleet modernization under structural cost programs rather than deferred maintenance. Earnings durability remains closely tied to parcel routing density and fuel surcharge pass-through mechanisms, though persistent operating marginsensitivity to volume swings underscores cyclical operational leverage.
الحاليOperating profitability in Federal Express reflects initial savings from structural cost programs but remains below peer benchmarks.
لماذا يهم
Federal Express is the primary profit generator for the company, and margin expansion here determines whether consolidated operating leverage can support higher enterprise valuation.
02
المقياس:
FedEx Freight Less-Than-Truckload Yield and Volume
Cash flow generation exhibits healthy underlying conversion, with FY2026 operating cash flow of $8,925M representing 201% of GAAP net income of $4,433M. Capex of $3,809M was 4.02% of consolidated revenue ($94,720M), enabling free cash flow of $5,116M. Stock-based compensation remained modest at $177M, confirming that cash flow quality is uncompromised by dilutive non-cash equity grants.4,5
تخصيص رأس المال
FedEx generated $8,925M in operating cash flow in FY2026, directing $3,809M toward and producing $5,116M in . balances shareholder returns via dividends ($4.88 per share) and share repurchases ($796M deployed in FY2026) with balance sheet preservation. Total balance sheet debt of $42,944M requires careful maturity management given upcoming maturities of $1,506M in year 1 and $2,751M in year 3 in a higher interest rate environment (10Y Treasury at 5.24%), supported by $13,311M in cash reserves.
The spread between ROIC (9.56%) and WACC (8.20%) indicates that FedEx creates modest enterprise value through its network assets. Capital discipline through capex containment ($3,809M) relative to depreciation ($4,369M) keeps invested capital stable, allowing return on capital to track operating margin improvements achieved through network optimization.
ROIC stands at 9.56%, which exceeds the computed WACC of 8.2048% by 136 basis points, confirming positive economic profit generation across invested capital, though it remains below computed Ke moderate of 10.5603%.
Federal Express drives the overwhelming majority of consolidated top line and profit
أحدث إيرادات94.7 مليار US$معدل النمو السنوي المركب للإيرادات +5.1%
هامش التشغيل5.8%10 فترات مالية
أحدث تدفق نقدي حر5.1 مليار US$FY2026
صافي الدين10.1 مليار US$FY2026
تفصيل قائمة الدخلكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.31 مايو 2026
StockMarketAgent.AI
الإيرادات25 مليار US$تكلفة الإيرادات−19.3 مليار US$إجمالي الربح5.7 مليار US$المصروفات التشغيلية−3.6 مليار US$الدخل التشغيلي2.1 مليار US$البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب−491 مليون US$صافي الدخل1.6 مليار US$
بيانات التاريخ المالي
الإيرادات
25,007,000,000 US$
تكلفة الإيرادات
19,334,000,000 US$
إجمالي الربح
5,673,000,000 US$
المصروفات التشغيلية
3,584,000,000 US$
الدخل التشغيلي
2,089,000,000 US$
البنود غير التشغيلية والضرائب
-491,000,000 US$
صافي الدخل
1,598,000,000 US$
لمحة عن الميزانية العموميةكيفية الاحتفاظ بالأصول المُبلغ عنها وتمويلها في الفترة المحددة.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تكوين الأصولمصادر التمويل
إجمالي الأصول98.9 مليار US$النقد13.3 مليار US$الأصول المتداولة27.9 مليار US$إجمالي الالتزامات67.3 مليار US$الالتزامات المتداولة18.9 مليار US$حقوق المساهمين31.6 مليار US$
بيانات تفصيل الميزانية العمومية
إجمالي الأصول
98,937,000,000 US$
النقد
13,311,000,000 US$
الأصول المتداولة
27,903,000,000 US$
إجمالي الالتزامات
67,290,000,000 US$
الالتزامات المتداولة
18,912,000,000 US$
حقوق المساهمين
31,647,000,000 US$
جسر التدفق النقديكيف تحول التدفق النقدي التشغيلي إلى تدفق نقدي حر في FY2026.
StockMarketAgent.AI
تسوية التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
صافي الدخل4.4 مليار US$الإهلاك والإطفاء+4.4 مليار US$التعويض القائم على الأسهم+177 مليون US$تعديلات تشغيلية أخرى−54 مليون US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي8.9 مليار US$
تسوية النقد من بداية الفترة إلى نهايتها
النقد في بداية الفترة5.5 مليار US$التدفق النقدي التشغيلي+8.9 مليار US$التدفق النقدي الاستثماري−3.9 مليار US$التدفق النقدي التمويلي+2.7 مليار US$تأثير سعر الصرف+46 مليون US$النقد في نهاية الفترة13.3 مليار US$
8.9 مليار US$ − 3.8 مليار US$التدفق النقدي الحر 5.1 مليار US$
بيانات جسر التدفق النقدي
صافي الدخل
4,433,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الداخل
8,979,000,000 US$
الإهلاك والإطفاء
4,369,000,000 US$
التعويض القائم على الأسهم
177,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي
8,925,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي الخارج
54,000,000 US$
النقد المتاح
17,222,000,000 US$
النقد في بداية الفترة
5,502,000,000 US$
التدفق التمويلي الداخل
2,749,000,000 US$
تأثير سعر الصرف
46,000,000 US$
التدفق الاستثماري الخارج
3,911,000,000 US$
النفقات الرأسمالية
3,809,000,000 US$
أنشطة استثمارية أخرى
102,000,000 US$
النقد في نهاية الفترة
13,311,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي الاستثماري
-3,911,000,000 US$
التدفق النقدي التمويلي
2,749,000,000 US$
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمالالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2026-05-31.
25 مليارإجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمالالحصة
Cost of19.3 مليار77.3%
أخرى5.7 مليار22.7%
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمال
الإيرادات حسب فئة الأعمال
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
Cost of
19.3 مليار
77.3%
—
Other
5.7 مليار
22.7%
—
الإيرادات حسب المنطقةالحصة من إجمالي إيرادات 2026-05-31.
94.7 مليار US$إجمالي الإيرادات
الإيرادات حسب المنطقةالحصة
United States67.9 مليار US$71.7%+8% على أساس سنوي
Non Us26.8 مليار US$28.3%+7.1% على أساس سنوي
المصدر: SEC EDGAR · تاريخ الإيداع 2026-07-20 · SEC EDGAR
بيانات توزيع الإيرادات: الإيرادات حسب المنطقة
الإيرادات حسب المنطقة
الإيرادات
الحصة
على أساس سنوي
United States
67.9 مليار US$
71.7%
8%
Non Us
26.8 مليار US$
28.3%
7.1%
الإيرادات والأرباحكيف يتحول حجم الأعمال إلى أرباح مُعلنة.
النقد والدينالسيولة المتاحة مقارنة بإجمالي الاقتراض.
توليد النقدالتدفق النقدي التشغيلي مقارنة بالتدفق النقدي الحر.
FedEx Corporation (FDX) trades at 14.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 8.3x compares with a peer median of 12.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: United Parcel Service Inc., Norfolk Southern Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation and Honeywell International Inc., as of 2026-10-03.
§10 الصناعة والدورةEN
مرحلة الدورة
Contraction
FedEx's capital expenditures for FY2026 were $3,809M against annual depreciation of $4,369M, resulting in a capex-to-D&A ratio of 0.87x. Management has curtailed aircraft purchase commitments and facility expansions to align network capacity with normalized post-pandemic parcel volumes. Broader industry capacity and customer concentration benchmarks remain unavailable in the reporting packet, making the broader cycle assessment demand-led and evidence-limited.5
دورة صعودية
A coordinated global manufacturing recovery and restocking cycle re-accelerates freight demand across LTL and international express lanes, driving parcel yield expansion and lifting operating leverage.
دورة هبوطية
Deepening industrial production slowdowns and weak corporate freight demand trigger aggressive discounting by carriers with surplus transport capacity, depressing freight rates and package yields.
الاتجاهات طويلة الأمد
الاتجاه
التأثير
ملاحظة
Global E-Commerce Expansion and Omnichannel Retailing
positive
Ongoing consumer shift to online retail sustains baseline parcel delivery volumes, though business-to-consumer package mix exerts pressure on average revenue per piece.
Supply Chain Nearshoring and Regionalization
neutral
Manufacturing relocation toward North America alters traditional trans-Pacific trade lanes, benefiting domestic freight and ground networks while dampening long-haul international air cargo growth on Non-US revenue ($26,776M).
التموضع
FedEx is defensively positioned as a critical duopoly participant in express parcel transport, leveraging $82,273M in Federal Express revenue and $8,795M in FedEx Freight revenue. Its active DRIVE program aims to permanently remove structural costs to offset cyclical freight volume contractions.6
§11 إدارة المراكزEN
حجم المركز
0-1%
Under the committee Reduce rating, exposure should be trimmed significantly below benchmark transportation sector weighting due to negative implied return (-13.37%) relative to Fair value of $251.53 and valuation premium over primary peer UPS.
المخاطر
Position risk should be managed through disciplined underweighting relative to industrial transportation benchmarks. Investors should monitor freight volume indicators, package yield data, and jet fuel price volatility. Given the 15.44% premium to house Fair value ($251.53) and balance sheet debt of $42,944M, risk is weighted toward downside multiple compression.
شرائح الدخول
المستوى
إجراء
لماذا
$251.50
Re-underwrite intrinsic valuation
House Fair value midpoint; assess whether cost savings under DRIVE have stabilized consolidated operating margins above 6.0% before considering neutral exposure.
$216.70
Evaluate risk-reward for rating upgrade
Forward earnings model anchor midpoint; provides an adequate margin of safety against cyclical freight headwinds.
FedEx trades at $290.36, a 15.4% premium to our Fair value of $251.53. With forward P/E at 14.22x compared to direct peer UPS at 11.53x, the shares lack the necessary margin of safety for disciplined value investing.3
Income & Dividend Investor
Hold
The annual dividend of $4.88 per share is well-supported by $5,116M in free cash flow and $8,925M in operating cash flow. Existing income investors may hold for dividend continuity, though capital appreciation potential is constrained by valuation.4,5
Growth & Momentum Investor
Avoid
Consensus estimates forecast top-line contraction of -0.15% in FY2027 and -1.83% in FY2028, offering minimal revenue momentum. High fixed operating costs create downside risk to forward earnings if volume weakness persists.1
§14 التوصية النهائيةEN
إجراء
تخفيض
We recommend reducing exposure to FedEx Corporation at the report-date price of $290.36 as of October 2, 2026. The stock trades at a 15.4% premium to our Fair value of $251.53, offering an unfavorable risk-reward skew of -13.4% implied return. With consensus projecting revenue contractions in FY2027 and FY2028, current prices leave no cushion for execution delays in network restructuring or macro-driven parcel yield compression.1,3
Investors should trim positions, waiting for either a valuation retracement toward our Fair value of $251.53 or tangible evidence of operating margin expansion above 6.5% before reconsidering entry.
§15ملاحظاتك
دوّن أطروحتك الاستثمارية وحجم مركزك وأسئلة المتابعة. تبقى على هذا الجهاز، ولا يراها أحد سواك.
ملاحظات خاصة
مرئية لك وحدك. محفوظة على هذا الجهاز.
لا أحرف
Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Valuation de-rating converging toward direct peer UPS on delayed Network 2.0 savings
FedEx trades at forward P/E of 14.22x and terminal multiple is authored at 14.0x. Direct primary peer UPS trades at 11.53x forward P/E while generating a 9.05% operating margin. A multiple de-rating toward 11.5x erodes valuation premium over UPS, driving an estimated -18.2% fair value impact.3
FV impact
-5.2%
Terminal multiple 20% lower
Trigger
Within 18 months
Protracted industrial freight recession and loss of parcel market share
Consensus already forecasts revenue contraction in FY2027 (-0.15% to $94,579,724,310) and FY2028 (-1.83% to $92,847,327,830). Historical 5-year revenue CAGR is only 0.32%. Deepening manufacturing weakness across Freight ($8,795M) and Non-US trade ($26,776M) accelerates volume losses, pushing revenue growth below -2% and driving an estimated -22.4% fair value impact.1,6
FV impact
-4.8%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Credit spread widening and higher risk-free rates increasing capital costs across debt refinancing ladder
Computed WACC is 8.2048% and Ke moderate is 10.5603%. FedEx carries total debt of $42,944M with $1,506M maturing within 1 year and $2,751M in year 3. Refinancing debt in an elevated yield regime (10Y Treasury at 5.24%) expands borrowing spreads and elevates cost of capital above 10.2%, creating an estimated -24.8% fair value impact.2,3
Accelerating DRIVE cost savings programs and Network 2.0 consolidation to eliminate duplicate facilities and match UPS operational efficiency.
Cross-Border Trade Protectionism and International Air Cargo Shifts
medium
1-3 years
Reallocating widebody air cargo capacity dynamically to intra-regional Asian and European trade lanes to reduce exposure to trans-Pacific tariff shocks on Non-US revenue ($26,776M).6
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (65.35 US$) plus discounted terminal value (219 US$) minus signed per current share (42.86 US$) equals the 242 US$ lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
The upside case envisions accelerated execution of network consolidation initiatives, closing the operational efficiency gap with peer operators and driving margins toward Potential value of $318.80. Stronger cross-border e-commerce and a cyclical industrial rebound bolster parcel yields, expanding cash flow generation and accelerating share retirements.
Freight demand reflects broader industrial production trends with stable pricing discipline offsetting softer freight shipments.
لماذا يهم
Freight provides critical high-margin contribution, and volume declines directly pressure operating profit and reduce operating cash generation.
Operational execution in Federal Express sortation and air networks dictates enterprise financial performance, making consolidated results heavily reliant on parcel route density.
Lower capital intensity supports shareholder capital returns and balance sheet de-leveraging even as top-line revenue growth remains muted (FY2027 forecast -0.15% and FY2028 forecast -1.83%).
Valuation sits at a premium to peer UPS despite lower operating margin
FedEx trades at forward P/E of 14.22x with a 5.77% consolidated operating margin, while direct peer UPS trades at 11.53x forward P/E with an operating margin of 9.05%.
Current market pricing prices in rapid margin catch-up, leaving shares vulnerable to multiple de-rating if Network 2.0 cost takeout lags expectations.
Lockheed Martin CorporationLMT
السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة696.6 US$Report-date price513.35 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةWide
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار71 / 100
Honeywell International Inc.HON
السعر / القيمة العادلة
القيمة العادلة193.44 US$Report-date price211.41 US$
تاريخ التقييم
الميزة التنافسيةWide
بطاقة تقييم الاستثمار66 / 100
الهامش
FDX
FedEx Corporation
$68.7B
14.2x
0.7x
8.3x
14.8%
—
UPS
United Parcel Service Inc.
$79.1B
11.5x
0.9x
8.5x
29.6%
9.1%
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
$71.3B
22.2x
5.7x
15.4x
17.0%
35.3%
LMT
Lockheed Martin Corporation
$116.6B
15.4x
1.5x
13.8x
89.2%
12.0%
HON
Honeywell International Inc.
$67.8B
21.5x
1.8x
11.0x
46.6%
20.2%
Fleet Modernization and Decarbonization Mandates
negative
Regulatory pressure to lower aviation emissions and transition ground fleets to alternative powertrains requires sustained capital outlays, potentially increasing future fleet renewal costs despite current capex discipline ($3,809M).
