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FLEX trades against a final fair-value range of $65.15-$128.29, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $65.2, high $128, with mid-point at $94.8.
Stock analysis

FLEX fair value $65–$128

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تم التحليل: 2026-05-20التحديث التالي: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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السعر
$131.52
▼ -36.74 (-27.93%)
القيمة العادلة
$95
$65–$128
التصنيف
بيع
confidence 82/100
إمكانية الصعود
-27.9%
upside to fair value
هامش الأمان
$80.56
MoS level · 15%
القيمة السوقية
$48.4B
P/E fwd 19.4
المصدر الإنجليزيAR
يتم عرض المصدر الإنجليزي أثناء الترجمة
لم تتم ترجمة هذا التقرير بعد. قم بالتحديث خلال بضع دقائق بمجرد أن تلحق قائمة انتظار الترجمة بالركب.

§1 الملخص التنفيذي

  • Composite fair value $95 with high case $128.
  • Implied downside of 27.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$95
Margin of safety
-38.8%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$131.52Price
Low $65.15
Mid $94.78
High $128.29

FLEX trades against a final fair-value range of $65.15-$128.29, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Switching costs in complex manufacturing
    Switching costs in complex manufacturing
  • Scale within electronics manufacturing services
    Scale within electronics manufacturing services (EMS)
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerated growth from AI infrastructure and data center demand driving multi-year margin expansion.

§2 السيناريو الهبوطي

Fading the elevated near-term returns over a five-year period to explicitly account for legacy cyclical hardware risks and broader macro volatilityVolatilityVolatility is a price, risk, or intrinsic-value metric used to compare market price with estimated value or historical return behavior. It should be read as one input in a broader valuation range..

كيف يمكن أن تفشل هذه الأطروحة

Macro Cyclical Downturn

· Medium

Macroeconomic slowdown and cyclical downturn in consumer devices heavily offset growth in industrial and AI solutions.

FV impact
$65.15
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Compression

· Low

Severe margin compression from input cost inflation and supply chain disruptions causing operating margins to contract below 5.5%.

FV impact
$80.00
Trigger
6-12 months

AI Demand Fade

· Low

AI infrastructure super-cycle demand fades prematurely before legacy business units can fundamentally recover.

FV impact
$75.00
Trigger
18-36 months
إشارات الإنذار المبكر للمراقبة
المقياسالحاليحد التشغيل
Next twelve months (NTM) forward EPS revisions trending downward or falling below $6.50.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins contracting below 5.5% over the next 4 quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant deceleration in data center and cloud infrastructure segment growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow conversion dropping below historical baselines (OCF to Net Income < 1.0x).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increase in inventory days signaling supply chain bottlenecks or demand weakness.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 التاريخ المالي

بيان الدخل — آخر ستة فترات

البند2022-03-312023-03-312024-03-312025-03-31Trend
الإيرادات$24.63B$28.50B+15.7%$26.42B-7.3%$25.81B-2.3%+1.6%
إجمالي الربح$1.78B$1.98B$1.87B$2.16B+6.6%
الدخل التشغيلي$890.0M$1.02B$873.0M$1.19B+10.0%
صافي الدخل$936.0M$793.0M-15.3%$1.01B+27.4%$838.0M-17.0%-3.6%
EPS (مخفف)$1.94$1.72$2.28$2.11+2.8%
EBITDA$1.61B$1.54B$1.41B$1.78B+3.3%
البحث والتطوير
المصاريف الإدارية والبيعية$830.0M$874.0M$922.0M$904.0M+2.9%

درجات الجودة

OCF / صافي الدخل
1.8×
>1 يشير إلى جودة عالية للأرباح
حد جودة المحاسبة
Fail
حد معدل حسب القطاع
ROIC
10.7%
العائد على رأس المال المستثمر
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Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

FLEX margins questions

  1. FLEX (FLEX)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.
FAQ

FLEX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, FLEX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $132 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $94.8 (range $65.2–$128), which implies roughly 27.9% downside to the midpoint.
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