Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
NYSE: MA · Real-Time Price · USD
$495
-5.46 (-1.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: MA rated Strong Buy
MA is rated Strong Buy at $497.83 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $670.40, implying +34.66% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$670 / share
$510 – $834
Upside to FV
+34.7%
from $495
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Continued secular tailwinds in digital payments and accelerated adoption of high-margin value-added services drive sustained double-digit growth and massive free cash flow generation.
Biggest risk
Regulatory Take Rate Cap
Regulatory Take Rate Cap: Global regulators severely cap cross-border and domestic interchange, structurally lowering yield and operating margins.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
MA is rated Strong Buy at $497.83 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $670.40, implying +34.66% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $439.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 33.9B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 15.6B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $17.3 | |
| Shares out | 883.6M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 28.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 21.9x | |
| Dividend | $3.48 (0.70%) | |
| Volume | 4,143,520 | |
| Beta | 0.76 | |
| Price target | $649 | +30.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Mastercard IncorporatedMA
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 33.9B
- Net income (ttm)
- 15.6B
- EPS (ttm)
- $17.3
- P/E (trailing)
- 28.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.9x
- Market cap
- $439.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $22.24B | $25.10B | $28.17B | $32.79B | +13.8% |
| Gross profit | $16.97B | $19.08B | $21.49B | $25.54B | +14.6% |
| Operating income | $12.72B | $14.63B | $16.33B | $19.51B | +15.3% |
| Net income | $9.93B | $11.20B | $12.87B | $14.97B | +14.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $10.22 | $11.83 | $13.89 | $16.52 | +17.4% |
| EBITDA | $12.95B | $15.01B | $16.80B | $20.44B | +16.4% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $3.50B | $3.65B | $4.27B | $4.88B | +11.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $510
- Fair value (mid)
- $670
- Fair value (high)
- $834
- Current price
- $495
- Upside to mid
- +34.7%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $869 | 30% |
| Forward earnings | $604 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $543 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $566 | 20% |
| FCFF DCF | $671 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $150 | 0% |
| Ddm | $87.59 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$649
+30.9%
In the news
Latest news · MA
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $439.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 28.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.9x
- P/S
- 12.9x
- P/B
- 65.4x
- PEG
- 1.48
- EV / EBITDA
- 21.0x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 100.0%
- Operating margin
- 59.5%
- ROE
- 232.1%
- ROA
- 25.0%
- ROIC
- 95.2%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 2.82
- Current ratio
- 0.98
- Quick ratio
- 0.56
Trading
- Beta
- 0.76
- Volume
- 4,143,520
- Dividend yield
- 0.7%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +33.5% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$834.12
+67.6% from spot
Continued secular tailwinds in digital payments and accelerated adoption of high-margin value-added services drive sustained double-digit growth and massive free cash flow generation.
- Revenue growth sustains >13%.
- VAS penetration drives margin expansion above 60%.
- No material regulatory impact.
Base60%
Price target
$670.40
+34.7% from spot
Mastercard maintains its duopoly position, benefiting from a steady shift from cash to digital, while aggressively repurchasing shares and compounding intrinsic value at historical rates.
- Revenue growth compounds at ~11%.
- Operating margins remain stable near current levels.
- Terminal growth at 3%.
Bear20%
Price target
$509.87
+2.4% from spot
Intensifying regulatory pressure and alternative payment methods erode pricing power, slowing top-line growth to single digits and capping multiple expansion, though absolute downside is cushioned by capital-light model.
- Increased regulatory caps on interchange.
- Rise of alternative networks slows volume growth.
- Multiple compression due to growth deceleration.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $670.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $869 | +75.4% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $604 | +22.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $543 | +9.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 20% | $566 | +14.1% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $671 | +35.4% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $150 | -69.7% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $87.6 | -82.3% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $670 | +34.7% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4% | $861 | $1009 | $1165 | $1165 | $1165 |
| 6.4% | $666 | $751 | $861 | $1009 | $1165 |
| 7.4% | $543 | $598 | $666 | $751 | $861 |
| 8.4% | $458 | $497 | $543 | $598 | $666 |
| 9.4% | $396 | $425 | $458 | $497 | $543 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet1.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment3.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency8.5
Weighted composite
6.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 8.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core holding given mature compounder archetype and high confidence score of 88/100.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$495
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim if ROIC structurally degrades below 40% or if regulatory intervention fundamentally alters the revenue model.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E21.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE232.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC95.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All MA indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
281
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 281 of 281 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on MA
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this MA report
What is the current MA stock rating?
Mastercard Incorporated is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MA analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MA/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MA?
The latest report frames MA around $510 to $834. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MA page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyMA · Fair value $670+34.7% · Confidence 88/100