Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)
NASDAQ: PLTR · Real-Time Price · USD
$138
+0.75 (+0.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: PLTR rated Hold
Hold. Explicit forward earnings compounding accurately overrides the artificial drag of trailing SBC-heavy bases, justifying the premium.
Fair value (mid)
$150 / share
$70.8 – $245
Upside to FV
+9.7%
from $138
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Bull ($244.53): AIP becomes the de facto enterprise AI OS, pushing normalized margins beyond 40%.
Biggest risk
AIP Commercial Deceleration
AIP Commercial Deceleration: AIP adoption stalls against hyperscaler native solutions, normalizing revenue growth significantly below the 30% multi-year requirement.
Recommended action
Hold
PLTR is rated Hold at $137.05 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $150.33, implying +9.69% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $328.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 5.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $0.89 | |
| Shares out | 2.4B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 154.9x | |
| P/E (forward) | 67.4x | |
| Volume | 41,780,643 | |
| Beta | 1.52 | |
| Price target | $194 | +40.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Palantir Technologies Inc.PLTR
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 5.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $0.89
- P/E (trailing)
- 154.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 67.4x
- Market cap
- $328.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $1.91B | $2.23B | $2.87B | $4.48B | +23.8% |
| Gross profit | — | $1.50B | $1.79B | $2.30B | $3.69B | +25.3% |
| Operating income | — | $-161.2M | $120.0M | $310.4M | $1.41B | — |
| Net income | — | $-373.7M | $209.8M | $462.2M | $1.63B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $-0.18 | $0.09 | $0.19 | $0.63 | — |
| EBITDA | — | $-138.7M | $153.3M | $342.0M | $1.44B | — |
| R&D | — | $359.7M | $404.6M | $507.9M | $557.7M | +11.6% |
| SG&A | — | $1.30B | $1.27B | $1.48B | $1.71B | +7.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $70.8
- Fair value (mid)
- $150
- Fair value (high)
- $245
- Current price
- $138
- Upside to mid
- +9.7%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $220 | 60% |
| Discounted earnings | $34.82 | 15% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $76.87 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $45.51 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $22.93 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $195 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$194
+40.9%
In the news
Latest news · PLTR
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $328.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 154.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 67.4x
- P/S
- 63.2x
- P/B
- 39.1x
- PEG
- 1.78
- EV / EBITDA
- 159.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 84.1%
- Operating margin
- 38.1%
- ROE
- 32.6%
- ROA
- 14.7%
- ROIC
- 306.8%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.02
- Current ratio
- 6.91
- Quick ratio
- 6.82
Trading
- Beta
- 1.52
- Volume
- 41,780,643
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +9.7% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$244.53
+78.4% from spot
Bull ($244.53): AIP becomes the de facto enterprise AI OS, pushing normalized margins beyond 40%.
- Bull ($244.53): AIP becomes the de facto enterprise AI OS, pushing normalized margins beyond 40%.
Base50%
Price target
$150.33
+9.7% from spot
Base ($150.33): 71% Y1 revenue growth, maturing to a 35% terminal operating margin.
- Base ($150.33): 71% Y1 revenue growth, maturing to a 35% terminal operating margin.
Bear25%
Price target
$70.77
-48.4% from spot
Bear ($70.77): Growth decelerates sharply, multiple compresses, and SBC dilution compounds negatively.
- Bear ($70.77): Growth decelerates sharply, multiple compresses, and SBC dilution compounds negatively.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $150.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 60% | $220 | +59.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $34.8 | -74.7% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 10% | $76.9 | -44.2% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $45.5 | -67.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $22.9 | -83.4% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $195 | +41.2% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $150 | +9.7% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.9% | $196 | $210 | $226 | $246 | $268 |
| 10.9% | $173 | $183 | $196 | $210 | $226 |
| 11.9% | $154 | $163 | $173 | $183 | $196 |
| 12.9% | $139 | $146 | $154 | $163 | $173 |
| 13.9% | $127 | $133 | $139 | $146 | $154 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.9
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
7.7/10
High quality| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Maintain standard allocation. Extreme volatility and high reliance on terminal multiples mandate building positions in tranches.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$138
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure above $200 or upon any verifiable deterioration of core commercial customer growth metrics.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E67.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE32.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC306.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All PLTR indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
253
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 253 of 253 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on PLTR
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this PLTR report
What is the current PLTR stock rating?
Palantir Technologies Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full PLTR analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/PLTR/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for PLTR?
The latest report frames PLTR around $71 to $245. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the PLTR page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldPLTR · Fair value $150+9.7% · Confidence 88/100