Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)
NYSE: PM · Real-Time Price · USD
$171
-0.12 (-0.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: PM rated Strong Buy
Strong Buy, driven by a durable moat, pricing power, and an increasingly profitable transitioning product portfolio.
Fair value (mid)
$222 / share
$173 – $271
Upside to FV
+29.8%
from $171
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Accelerated global adoption of ZYN and continued IQOS momentum lead to margin expansion and faster-than-expected revenue growth.
Biggest risk
Global Alternative Ban
Global Alternative Ban: Major global markets implement sweeping bans on oral nicotine pouches and heated tobacco, eliminating all key growth vectors.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
Strong Buy. The ongoing transition to high-margin smoke-free products offers an underappreciated growth runway and durable margin expansion.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $266.5B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 41.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 11.1B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $7.10 | |
| Shares out | 1.6B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 24.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 18.7x | |
| Dividend | $5.88 (3.44%) | |
| Volume | 4,631,725 | |
| Beta | 0.39 | |
| Price target | $190 | +11.0% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Philip Morris International Inc.PM
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 41.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 11.1B
- EPS (ttm)
- $7.10
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 18.7x
- Market cap
- $266.5B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $31.76B | $35.17B | $37.88B | $40.65B | +6.4% |
| Gross profit | — | $20.36B | $22.28B | $24.55B | $27.28B | +7.6% |
| Operating income | — | $12.25B | $12.22B | $13.40B | $14.93B | +5.1% |
| Net income | — | $9.05B | $7.81B | $7.06B | $11.35B | +5.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.83 | $5.81 | $5.02 | $4.53 | $7.26 | +5.6% |
| EBITDA | — | $13.48B | $13.37B | $15.75B | $17.46B | +6.7% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | — | $8.11B | $10.06B | $11.15B | $12.35B | +11.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $173
- Fair value (mid)
- $222
- Fair value (high)
- $271
- Current price
- $171
- Upside to mid
- +29.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $221 | 35% |
| Discounted earnings | $265 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $256 | 15% |
| Forward earnings | $160 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $252 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $81.87 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$190
+11.0%
In the news
Latest news · PM
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $266.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 18.7x
- P/S
- 6.4x
- PEG
- 1.95
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 67.3%
- Operating margin
- 39.9%
- ROA
- 15.5%
- ROIC
- 35.3%
Balance sheet
- Current ratio
- 0.98
- Quick ratio
- 0.45
Trading
- Beta
- 0.39
- Volume
- 4,631,725
- Dividend yield
- 3.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +29.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$271.27
+58.6% from spot
Accelerated global adoption of ZYN and continued IQOS momentum lead to margin expansion and faster-than-expected revenue growth.
- Accelerated global adoption of ZYN.
- Continued IQOS momentum and margin expansion.
Base60%
Price target
$221.98
+29.8% from spot
Philip Morris International is executing a successful transition from combustible tobacco to smoke-free products (IQOS, ZYN), sustaining its mature compounder status through strong pricing power and high ROIC.
- Steady transition to smoke-free products.
- Stable pricing power in the legacy combustible business.
Bear20%
Price target
$172.91
+1.1% from spot
Severe regulatory restrictions on alternative nicotine products in key markets stall growth, while traditional cigarette volumes decline faster than pricing can offset.
- Severe regulatory restrictions on alternative nicotine.
- Faster traditional cigarette volume declines.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $222.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $221 | +29.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $265 | +54.7% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $256 | +49.5% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $160 | -6.5% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $252 | +47.6% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $81.9 | -52.1% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $222 | +29.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9% | $299 | $362 | $388 | $388 | $388 |
| 5.9% | $222 | $255 | $299 | $362 | $388 |
| 6.9% | $177 | $197 | $222 | $255 | $299 |
| 7.9% | $146 | $160 | $177 | $197 | $222 |
| 8.9% | $125 | $135 | $146 | $160 | $177 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment5.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency7.0
Weighted composite
6.1/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Moderate weighting, reflecting its lower cyclicality offset by concentrated regulatory tail risks.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$171
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Re-evaluate if the regulatory environment drastically worsens or structural ROIC drops below WACC.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E18.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROEn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC35.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All PM indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
263
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 263 of 263 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on PM
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this PM report
What is the current PM stock rating?
Philip Morris International Inc. is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full PM analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/PM/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for PM?
The latest report frames PM around $173 to $271. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the PM page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyPM · Fair value $222+29.8% · Confidence 88/100