Atlassian Corporation (TEAM)
NASDAQ: TEAM · Real-Time Price · USD
$91.6
-0.77 (-0.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: TEAM rated Strong Buy
A structurally dominant, high-margin SaaS franchise masked by aggressive temporary dilution. Strong Buy for long-term margin normalization.
Fair value (mid)
$282 / share
$185 – $400
Upside to FV
+207.3%
from $91.6
Confidence
65/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Successful integration of AI (Rovo) and cross-selling into ITSM accelerates enterprise revenue growth toward 20%+. R&D economies of scale drive massive GAAP margin expansion.
Biggest risk
Macro Seat Deceleration
Macro Seat Deceleration: Prolonged tech hiring freezes permanently stall organic seat expansion, breaking the core growth assumption.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
Strong Buy based on 207% fundamental upside to the $281.50 fair value, explicitly contingent on disciplined SBC rationalization.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $23.2B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 6.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | -216.8M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $-0.83 | |
| Shares out | 253.8M | |
| P/E (forward) | 14.7x | |
| Volume | 12,639,314 | |
| Beta | 0.90 | |
| Price target | $152 | +65.5% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 6.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- -216.8M
- EPS (ttm)
- $-0.83
- P/E (forward)
- 14.7x
- Market cap
- $23.2B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-06-30 | 2022-06-30 | 2023-06-30 | 2024-06-30 | 2025-06-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $2.80B | $3.53B | $4.36B | $5.22B | +16.8% |
| Gross profit | — | $2.35B | $2.90B | $3.56B | $4.32B | +16.4% |
| Operating income | — | $70.1M | $-345.2M | $-117.1M | $-130.4M | NaN% |
| Net income | — | $-519.5M | $-486.8M | $-300.5M | $-256.7M | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-2.79 | $-2.42 | $-1.90 | $-1.16 | — | — |
| EBITDA | — | $-377.7M | $-220.1M | $27.4M | $24.0M | — |
| R&D | — | $1.29B | $1.87B | $2.18B | $2.67B | +19.9% |
| SG&A | — | $978.7M | $1.37B | $1.48B | $1.77B | +15.9% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $185
- Fair value (mid)
- $282
- Fair value (high)
- $400
- Current price
- $91.6
- Upside to mid
- +207.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Ev revenue | $292 | 95% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $81.59 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$152
+65.5%
In the news
Latest news · TEAM
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $23.2B
- P/E (forward)
- 14.7x
- P/S
- 3.8x
- P/B
- 26.7x
- PEG
- 0.69
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 84.8%
- Operating margin
- -2.8%
- ROE
- -19.3%
- ROA
- -1.9%
- ROIC
- -15.8%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.41
- Current ratio
- 0.70
- Quick ratio
- 0.62
Trading
- Beta
- 0.90
- Volume
- 12,639,314
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +208.1% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$399.57
+336.2% from spot
Successful integration of AI (Rovo) and cross-selling into ITSM accelerates enterprise revenue growth toward 20%+. R&D economies of scale drive massive GAAP margin expansion.
- >20% structural revenue growth
- GAAP operating margin expands > 25%
- Rapid SBC percentage normalization
Base45%
Price target
$281.50
+207.3% from spot
Continued cloud migration and steady enterprise penetration. The company eventually achieves target 22% GAAP margins as hyper-growth hiring concludes, commanding an 8x multiple.
- 15-20% near-term revenue growth
- 22% terminal GAAP operating margin
- 8x EV/Revenue exit multiple
Bear30%
Price target
$185.46
+102.5% from spot
Macroeconomic headwinds halt developer seat expansion. Investors severely penalize the ~26% SBC-to-revenue ratio, resulting in lasting multiple compression and lower terminal value.
- <10% long-term revenue growth
- SBC persists >25% of revenue
- Terminal multiple aggressively compresses
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $282.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ev revenue | 95% | $292 | +218.8% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $81.6 | -10.9% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $282 | +207.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $269 | $287 | $307 | $331 | $358 |
| 11.0% | $239 | $253 | $269 | $287 | $307 |
| 12.0% | $216 | $227 | $239 | $253 | $269 |
| 13.0% | $196 | $205 | $216 | $227 | $239 |
| 14.0% | $180 | $188 | $196 | $205 | $216 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.1
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability1.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment4.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality3.0
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
5.0/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.1 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 2.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 65/100
Target weight
Constrain sizing given low confidence score (35). The massive benchmark divergence requires elevated risk tolerance regarding GAAP realization.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$91.6
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Exit mechanically if cloud revenue growth permanently falls below 15% or management abandons the 22% GAAP profitability target.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E14.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE-19.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC-15.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All TEAM indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
235
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 235 of 235 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on TEAM
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this TEAM report
What is the current TEAM stock rating?
Atlassian Corporation is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full TEAM analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/TEAM/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for TEAM?
The latest report frames TEAM around $185 to $400. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the TEAM page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyTEAM · Fair value $282+207.3% · Confidence 65/100